Saturday 3 August 2013

Old World Order - Japan

Population: 127 million
Area: 378,000km2
GDP: $5.9 trillion
GDP (per capita): $35,000

Japan is unique in the countries that I am reviewing; it is the only Asian country and the only one never to have beenm controlled by Europeans. Japan has a very large economy, behind only the USA and China. This, seemingly successful, economy is in part thanks to US investment following WWII out of fears that Japan might fall to the Communists. The truth is that although the Japenese economy is large, it is also stagnant and has been since the early 1990s. Japan is also facing problems in the future; the rise of China, fear of North Korea, and an ageing and shrinking population.

The rise of China is a serious threat to Japan, it already has a larger economy and higher military expenditure. China also has the world's largest standing army. China and Japan are currently arguing over the rights to fish in the waters between the two nations. A stronger China would find it easier to bully Japan. Thankfully the Japanese have the Americans backing them.

Another issue I mentioned was fear of North Korea. This may never amount to anything, but could prove disastrous for Japan if things do fo wrong. Nobody id quite sure what nuclear capability North Korea has, but we can be pretty certain that within the next decade (if not already) that it will have nuclear weapons that can reach anywhere in Japan. This is really worrying as tensions between the two Koreas is at a high and rising. If the regime in Pyongyang were to send nuclear missiles to Japan, the result would be devastating.

The North Korean problem may never come to fruition, but one problem Japan is already facing is an aging and declining population. The fertility rate in Japan is very low, which means the working population is shrinking whilst the dependent population is increasing. Fewer people working means lower government revenue, whilst more retired people means higher government expenditire through pensions and healthcare. This is a recipe for disaster as Japan's debt to GDP ratio, at 214% of GDP, is the highest in the world, even higher than Greece and Zimbabwe! Japan's stagnant economy is not helped by its declining population, currently Japan is the 10th largest country in the world with 127 million people. By 2050 this is expected to decline to 107 million people, making it the 17th largest.

Low growth has been the standard for the Japanese economy over the past two decades. Japan has never really recovered from a crash in the early 1990s. If a government were to actually pull Japan out of the doldrums then it would be a miracle.

So Japan faces three main problems; challenges from Asian neighbours, poor economic performance and a declining population.

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