Ukrainian Crisis Approaches Boiling Point

The crisis in Ukraine has continued to get even hotter over the past week despite attempts by diplomats to secure a peace deal.

Eastern Ukraine has a large proportion of ethnic Russians, and many Ukrainians who are supportive of Russia. This is why the Kremlin has moved its focus from Crimea to the rest of eastern Ukraine. The series of events which resulted in Crimea joining Russia has begun to play out across the east. Armed men have taken numerous government buildings, erected Russian flags and demanded that they be allowed to join Russia. Just like the armed men in Crimea they are too well-organised to simply be pro-Russian locals. Rather, they are mostly members of the Russian armed forces. Of course Russia denies that the militia are connected to the Russian military, but they made the same statements about the militia in Crimea and have since admitted that they were actually Russian soldiers.

Yet, as I have said in my previous posts, these areas are not like Crimea. They are not majority Russian and hence the Ukrainian government will put up more of a fight for control of the region. Already Kiev had sent troops in to take some key positions back from the Russians.

Despite the chaotic situation in the east, there did seem to be some hope that a peaceful solution might actually be reached! The governments of Ukraine, Russia, the US and EU reached an agreement in Geneva. The agreement called for the dissolving of all illegal military groups, amnesty for all anti-government protesters and that the militias that have taken control of government buildings must leave them. Unfortunately that deal seems dead in the water as one of the spokesmen for the separatists has said that they are not bound by the deal.

This all plays perfectly into Putin’s hand; he gets to look like a sensible diplomat whilst continuing to destabilise eastern Ukraine through these separatists. If you want any more proof that Putin is planning on take eastern Ukraine, all you need to do is watch the press conference he held earlier this week in which he referred to the eastern parts of Ukraine as “new Russia”! If that isn’t a clear sign that he plans to go even further into the territory of Ukraine, I don’t know what could be!

We Need to Talk About Appeasement

When Russia took Crimea from Ukraine the West responded with shock. The reaction in Eastern and Central Europe was very different, for years leaders in those countries had warned that Russia had never lost its imperialistic ambitions. Fear is particularly rife in the Baltic States who, bar a brief period of independence between World Wards, spent several centuries under the rule of Russia.

If we look at demographics they may have a reason to fear Russian aggression. Estonia and Latvia have sizeable ethnic Russian minorities, particularly in the east of their countries. The county of Ida-Viru in north-eastern Estonia is over 70% Russian, even more ethnically homogenous than Crimea! When Putin decided that he was going to invade Crimea he used the excuse that he was only doing it to protect Russians from the new government in Kiev. In Latvia, Russians are frequently treated like second-class citizens. Perhaps Putin could use this as a pretext to invasion?

Yet there are massive differences between Ukraine/Crimea and the Baltic states. The origins of the Crimean Crisis is the debate of whether Ukraine should tie itself closer to Russia or the EU. There is no such debate in the Baltic States, all three are members of the EU and NATO and are fully within the Western fold. Membership of NATO is of key importance here, no sovereign nation has invaded on of its members since its formation in 1949.

Another difference between Ukraine/Crimea and the Baltic states is of demographics and population. Estonia and Latvia have the highest proportions of ethnic Russians of the former USSR with 24.8% and 26.9% respectively. Compare this to Ukraine which has ‘only’ 17.3% ethnic Russians. But comparing country-wide percentages is not being intellectually honest. Russia has not invaded all of Ukraine, only Crimea. In Crimea 58.8% of the people are Russian. The population of these states is also important. Crimea has a population of 2.4 million, larger than both Estonia (1.3 million) and Latvia (2 million), only Lithuania with a population of 3 million is larger than Crimea. Lithuania has also got far fewer ethnic Russians, who make up only 5.8% of the population. There are more Russians in Crimea than the three Baltic States combined. The Estonian county of Ida-Viru has only 140,000 people in it. Would Putin really risk war with the West over an insignificant Estonian county? (no offence people of Ida-Viru county) When looking at the Baltic States Putin would be forced to do a cost-benefit analysis. He would then find the potential costs way too high and the benefits too few. It would seem inconceivable, but Putin has proved to be unpredictably before and will likely be so in the future.

So if the Baltic States will not be his next target, what will? The most commonly talked about are eastern Ukraine and Moldova.

Moldova is a small, landlocked country sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania. The fact that it does not border Russia, or even the sea, makes it seem strange that it might be the next flashpoint in a new Cold War. The fact that only 9.4% of Moldova is ethnically Russian further confuses the situation. Yet, as was the case with Ukraine, the problem is only part of the country. When Moldova seceded from the Soviet Union in 1991 the eastern portion of Moldova, Transnistria, seceded from Moldova. Although no UN member recognises the independence of Transnistria, it has been de facto independent for over 20 years. Another key issue is the demographics of the pseudo-independent state, it is roughly evenly split between Moldovans, Russians and Ukrainians (32, 30 and 29 respectively). Unlike the Baltic States, Moldova is not an EU or NATO member and hence is not well protected from foreign aggression.

Yet the major problem with invading Transnistria would be how could they get there? The most likely scenario would involve going through Ukraine and possibly Moldova. This could further destabilise the situation in Ukraine, especially since it would put Russian troops extremely close to Ukraine’s 4^th largest city, Odessa. Once they had control of Transnistria there would be the issue of what to do next? To move in/out of Transnistria would involve going through Ukraine, or Moldova and Romania. Considering Russia would have violated the sovereignty of the former two, they would be unlikely to willingly help Russia. Another option would be to take more territory, considering Putin’s actions already, it is not unthinkable. One issue that could prevent Russian action in Transnistria is the reaction that the rest of Moldova would have. Moldova is hoping is one day enter the European fold, Russia violating their sovereignty would likely cause them to seek closer ties with Europe sooner.

So if Transnistria is unlikely to happen, what really are the chances of Russia invading eastern Ukraine? As I have explained previously, no Ukrainian Oblast has more than 40% ethnic Russians (other than Crimea). Yet who says that Russia has to take an entire Oblast, perhaps just part of it. The city of Donetsk is 48% Russian, could Putin decide that he would likely to take that city?

Assigning probabilities is pointless as it all depends on how the West acts going into the future. If the West does nothing then the chances of Russia taking action in Transnistria, eastern Ukraine or the Baltic states would increase. If Putin does go further and the West does not take military action then we are taking about appeasement. I know accusing Putin of acting like Hitler seems drastic, but it is true. Hitler took Czechoslovakia and Poland to ‘protect’ ethnic Germans. If Putin takes Ukraine and Moldova to ‘protect’ ethnic Russians then how is he any different?

Putin has Won

In an unsurprising result, Putin has won Russia's presidential elections. Despite his majority of around 60%, the result is completely tainted by accusations of bullying and intimidation by his party as well as election fraud. People have been videoed putting multiple voting forms into ballot boxes and committing other such fraudulent acts.

The man who brought democracy to Russia, Mikhail Gorbachev, has criticised the elections and said that they are not fair. I don't deny though, that Putin has an awful lot of support in Russia but that power has been waning in recent years and it looks set to continue to fall from years to come. If the Russian people can rise up against Putin and demand freer and fairer elections then hopefully Russia will reform and the Russians can have real democracy for the first time in the history of their country.

Putin knows that support is falling, thousands of troops have been rushed into the centre of the city to try and disperse any riots or protests, just like what happened after the parliamentary elections in December. Russia is awakening and history shows, that leaders who refuse to reform get overthrown.

Massive Vote Fraud in Russia

Putin is trying to rig contests in
Russia in his favour

Elections in Russia in the past have always been shrouded in controversy but revelations about the upcoming elections prove to be the most damning for Putin. Activists have said that orders came from the hierarchy to get 25% of Moscow’s utility workers to vote for Putin, not once, not twice but five times. In return for doing this they would each be paid £200, people are desperate for money and fear for their jobs, so any amount of money is welcomed. If they achieved their objective the result would be Putin receiving 250,000 fraudulent votes. And this is only if the rigging has occurred in Moscow. There may be many more cases around Russia and could easily tip the balance of power in favour of Putin.

The way in which people can vote five times is through signing up to five different polling stations using an absentee form. These forms are designed for people to vote in a certain polling station when they cannot vote in their home polling station.

Putin has released a statement saying that the accusations are absolutely false and that he is not participating in vote rigging.

The independent monitoring website, Golos has received hundreds of reports of corrupt vote schemes from across Russia. This could result in Russia’s least fair election since the fall of Communism.

This is going to be difficult for Putin’s opposition to fight. Hopefully the opposition will win and Russia can then be allowed to change for the better.

A Year of Revolution and Protest

 This year was the year the world rebelled. It started with the Arab Spring, with every Arab country experiencing some sort of unrest. The Arab Spring would later inspire the Occupy Movement and the protests in Moscow.

It all began with a street vendor in Tunisia, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in protest to the police taking away his wares. Although he later died, his action sparked major protests in Tunisia which saw the overthrow of the President. These revolutionary protests later swept through the Arab world, overthrowing Egypt’s government and causing civil war in Libya which resulted in Colonel Gaddafi being killed. Revolts in Bahrain were crushed by Bahraini police and Saudi Arabian troops. A Bahraini commissioned report accused the government of committing human rights violations. The fact that this report got published is hopefully the first signs of reform. Protests in Syria are still on-going though and the government continues to crackdown harshly on protests. With China and Russia blocking any moves towards a UN resolution, it is difficult to estimate when or how the current stalemate will end.

A map of the Arab Spring.

Navy indicates government overthrown

Dark blue indicated sustained civil disorder and governmental changes

Light blue indicates protests and governmental changes

Orange indicates major protests

Sand-like colour indicates minor protests

Protests were not confined to the Arab world; many other countries experienced the Occupy movement. It started out on Wall Street, but it did not take long for the protests to go global with Occupy movements springing up in London, Hong Kong, Rio de Janeiro and hundreds of other cities. The movement protests against the inequalities that exist in society. Slogans such as “We are the 99%” prompted many important questions for politicians to answer. The slogan comes from the fact that the richest 1% of people earn a disproportionate amount of money, in the USA the 1% earn around 40% of the entire nations wealth! This won’t be an easy battle for the Occupy movement; it would only take a few of the 1% to launch an effective propaganda campaign against the movement. But it would be wrong to brand all of the 1% as elites; Bill Gates is a well-known philanthropist who donates much of his money to charity work across the globe and there are many more like him.

Another major protest in 2011 was in Russia, after the state elections in December around 50,000 people crowded onto an island near the Kremlin and accused the elections of being rigged. This was despite the fact that the government had suffered severe losses in the elections. Despite this, European and American officials who watched over the elections supported the protesters’ view that the elections had been rigged in favour of the Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s party. The protests in Moscow were the biggest since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 90s. With Putin looking to run for presidency this has certainly damaged his chances.

With many of these protests still on going, 2012 will also be an important for many countries in both the Arab world and beyond.

Crowds in Tahrir Square, Cairo.