The Old World Order - Europe

Population: 738 million
Area: 10 million km2
GDP: $18.7 trillion
GDP (per capita): $25,000

Europe is difficult to review as it is a continent rather than a country. Last year when I reviewed Africa I hadn't reviewed any countries within Africa. This time I have already reviewed four European nations. Undoubtedly Europe has been at the centre of international relations for the last several centuries having owned (at different times) all of the Americas, Africa and Australasia as well as most of Asia. The future looks problematic for Europe, its facing population decline and much of its resources have already been exhausted. By 2050 Europe's population will have declined to 677 million people. Much of Mediterranean Europe is in financial chaos, pulling the rest of Europe in. But all is not lost. The EU has the world's largest economy of $17 trillion, four countries of the 10 in terms of military expenditure are in it and two have veto power in the UN. Parts of Eastern Europe are also still quite poor, which sounds bad but means there is plenty of room for European GDP to grow.

Europe can also be a model for peace and democracy. I believe that the last wars in Europe took place in the former Yugoslavia. We may finally have gotten rid of war in Europe. Freedom House 2013 reports of 46 European nations, 37 were designated free, seven were partly free and only two were not free. With several of these less free countries moving forward, Europe could be the first continent to only have democracies that are truly free.

The Old World Order - Canada

Population: 35 million
Area: 9.9 million km2
GDP: $1.7 trillion
GDP (per capita): $42,000

Of the seven countries that I am reviewing, Canada is the one with the most hope in its future. Canada is massive, it is the second largest country y area and has a wealth of resources. Canada has the third largest proven oil reserves (175 billion barrels) and the third largest uranium reserves (485,000 tonnes) as well as the 13th largest coal reserves (6.5 billion tonnes) and the 20th largest natural gas reserves (1.75 trillion m3). So it is easy to say that Canada is resource wealthy and considering that much of Canada is under permafrost and unexplored, it will only get wealthier.

When you combine the extreme resource wealth with a (relatively) low population of only 35 million, screwing up the Canadian economy would be an achievement. The population is expected to be 41 million in 2050. Largely I have included Canada on the list for two reasons; first is that I wrote about all the other G7 nations so I may as well do Canada. Secondly, Canada faces a very serious threat; not existing. Or at least not existing in its current form. As in the cases of Britain and Italy, Canada has a strong secessionist movement. Quebec. The Québécois have always been different to the rest of Canada, their heritage is predominantly French rather than British or Irish and most of them speak French rather than English. Two referendums have been held over the question of Quebec independence, in 1980 independence was voted down by 20%, in 1995 the referendum was much closer with 49.42% of the electorate voting for independence and 50.58% voting against.

Quebec breaking away would create problems for Canada. Quebec is 15.4% of the area, 23% of the population and produces 20% of Canadian GDP. It also contains significant proportions of Canada's natural resources. It would also have the added problem of effectively splitting Canada in two, with the four smallest provinces of Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador, effectively isolated from the rest of Canada.

So Canada's future as a powerful nation is largely secure, as long as it can hold itself together.

Old World Order - Italy

Population: 61 million
Area: 301,000km2
GDP: $2.2 trillion
GDP (per capita): $33,000
United Nations Security Council Veto: No

In the late 1800s the Italian mini-states and city states were unified by the Kingdom of Piedmont into one country. The newly unified Italy was immediately powerful and over the next 100 years expanded its influence and power. Italy ended up on the right side of WWI, but thanks to the leadership of fascist Mussolini, was on the wrong side of WWII. In the years immediately following WWII the Italian economy grew very well, and although it had lost influence, still did rather well as a country.

The Italy of today is still relatively powerful, although not a great power. It has the 10th largest military expenditure in the world and the 8th largest economy. As in the case of Germany, Japan and France, a problem for Italy in its future is population decline. Currently Italy is the 23rd largest country in the world with 61 million pepole, by 2050 that is expected to have shrunk to 60 million people making it the 29th largest. This decline puts huge pressure on Italy, as time goes by its working population will decrease whilst the retired population will increase. This will mean more people will be collecting pensions and put more pressure on healthcare whilst tax receipts will decline as there are fewer people working.

Politics in Italy is also problematic as it is by far the most corrupt of the nations I am reviewing. Italian politicians of all sorts get generous pay cheques, the mayor of Bolzano (a city of roughly 100,000)gets paid more than Barack Obama. Not helping the cause is Silvio Berlusconi who kept up a political career despite having sex with numerous prostitutes, some of whom were minors.

Italy also has to deal with secessionist movements in the north (sometimes referred to as Padania), Sardinia and Sicily. In Sardinia polls show up to 40% of Sardinians supporting independence. Whilst Lega Nord (a pro-Padania party in the north) is the largest party in the Veneto and enjoys strong support in other regions such as Lombardy and Piedmont. Dealing with secessionist movements is always difficult, improving the economy tends to help, as does increasing the autonomy regions have. The north of Italy is much wealthier than the south and many northerners feel that they are subsidising the poorer south. A lot of grievances could be eased if the south was economically vitalised. There are major problems with this, the south has been poorer than the south for centuries, so the inequality is structural and would require a lot of capital. Capital that Italy simply does not have.

Italian finances are in a horrific state, its debt to GDP ratio is 126%, the 2nd highest in the Western world and the 8th overall. To make matters worse Italy is one of the European PIIGS countries that needs help from its northern neighbours. Italy needs serious financial reform (a good start would be slashing politicians' pay) and money to stimulate its economy.

So Italy faces three key problems; an ageing and declining population, strong secessionist movements and a crumbling economy.

Starting to notice a pattern of problems with Western nations?

Old World Order - Japan

Population: 127 million
Area: 378,000km2
GDP: $5.9 trillion
GDP (per capita): $35,000

Japan is unique in the countries that I am reviewing; it is the only Asian country and the only one never to have beenm controlled by Europeans. Japan has a very large economy, behind only the USA and China. This, seemingly successful, economy is in part thanks to US investment following WWII out of fears that Japan might fall to the Communists. The truth is that although the Japenese economy is large, it is also stagnant and has been since the early 1990s. Japan is also facing problems in the future; the rise of China, fear of North Korea, and an ageing and shrinking population.

The rise of China is a serious threat to Japan, it already has a larger economy and higher military expenditure. China also has the world's largest standing army. China and Japan are currently arguing over the rights to fish in the waters between the two nations. A stronger China would find it easier to bully Japan. Thankfully the Japanese have the Americans backing them.

Another issue I mentioned was fear of North Korea. This may never amount to anything, but could prove disastrous for Japan if things do fo wrong. Nobody id quite sure what nuclear capability North Korea has, but we can be pretty certain that within the next decade (if not already) that it will have nuclear weapons that can reach anywhere in Japan. This is really worrying as tensions between the two Koreas is at a high and rising. If the regime in Pyongyang were to send nuclear missiles to Japan, the result would be devastating.

The North Korean problem may never come to fruition, but one problem Japan is already facing is an aging and declining population. The fertility rate in Japan is very low, which means the working population is shrinking whilst the dependent population is increasing. Fewer people working means lower government revenue, whilst more retired people means higher government expenditire through pensions and healthcare. This is a recipe for disaster as Japan's debt to GDP ratio, at 214% of GDP, is the highest in the world, even higher than Greece and Zimbabwe! Japan's stagnant economy is not helped by its declining population, currently Japan is the 10th largest country in the world with 127 million people. By 2050 this is expected to decline to 107 million people, making it the 17th largest.

Low growth has been the standard for the Japanese economy over the past two decades. Japan has never really recovered from a crash in the early 1990s. If a government were to actually pull Japan out of the doldrums then it would be a miracle.

So Japan faces three main problems; challenges from Asian neighbours, poor economic performance and a declining population.

Old World Order - Germany

Population: 80 million
Area: 357,000km2
GDP: $3.6 trillion
GDP (per capita): $42,000
United Nations Security Council Veto: No

The numerous German states were unified in the late 1800s under the brilliant leadership of Otto Von Bismarck. The first century of its existence was tumultuous, its expansionist politics helped cause WWI and were the primary cause of WWII. Both wars ended with defeat and humiliation for Germany. Thankfully the Allies learnt how to deal with a defeated Germany and the Germans seemed happier to assume a smaller role in the world than they had previously desired. 

At the moment Germany is doing rather well, its lack of housing boom and export led economy meant it has been able to weather the recent economic crisis. It is the largest country entirely in Europe with over 80 million people (15th largest in the world). Its economy is the fourth largest, behind only America, China and Japan. Germany's economy is also growing, considering the circumstances this is quite a feat. Yet there are dark skies approaching Germany's future. 

For the first decade of the Euro's existence, Germany benefitted greatly as it made exporting to the European periphery easier. Unfortunately crisis in the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) could spread to Germany.  The northern Euro nations, especially Germany, have demanded that, in exchange for bailouts, the countries must impose harsh austerity. This had proved disastrous for the economies of the countries who are in a worse financial state, despite the bailouts Greece still risks default. If Greece goes then a domino effect could occur on the other PIIGS countries which would devastate the world economy, particularly the Eurozone. German banks that lent a lot to the PIIGS would default if the Germans did not bail them out.

Another risk to German power (and GDP) is its shrinking population. By 2050 Germany is expected to drop to 21st in the world rankings, with 71 million people, just marginally more than Britain. That would mean Britain would have the largest population in Europe by 2060. This is beneficial to Britain, not so much to Germany.

Germany's most serious threat originates outside of its borders, in the Eurozone periphery. I've already discussed what the problem is, so here I will concentrate on the solution. To solve the crisis will require the agreement of the Eurozone countries (there's 17 of them) and possibly the whole of the EU (28 nations) and help will probably have to come from the IMF and/or World Bank (the whole planet). Oh dear. Even just getting the agreement of the 17 Eurozone nations is difficult enough. What Germany needs to push for is more fiscal integration, which it has been doing, and economic stimulus in the problematic regions, which it has done the exact opposite. The Germans seem unwilling (like much of the rest of the world) to learn from the lessons of history that stimulus works and austerity fails.

To sum up; Germany faces two major challenges, a declining population and trouble in the Eurozone. The Eurozone challenge can be fixed - If German leaders recognise their mistakes and rectify them.

Old World Order - France

Population: 66 million
Area: 641,000 km2
GDP: $2.7 trillion
GDP (per capita): $36,000
United Nations Security Council Veto: Yes

France has been at the centre of European history for over 1100 years. In Europe, the only country that's been in more wars is Austria (although largely powerless now, before the 20th century Austria dominate Central European affairs). France had a huge empire and once nearly conquered all of continental Europe bar a disastrous attempt to invade Russia in the winter. These days France is still pretty powerful, having the 6th largest military expenditure in the world and veto power on the United Nations Security Council. It also has close ties to its European neighbours. France's future, however, is not all that rosy. 

One problem France is going to experience is population growth, or lack thereof. Currently France is the 21st largest country in the world with 65 million people, but by 2050 it is expected to drop to the 25th largest. Although its population will have risen to 69 million, it will have been shrinking since 2040. One way to reverse this would be to increase the amount of immigrants to France, but the French populace doesn't like that idea much. 

Although France's finances are not in the dire state that some of its European neighbours are in, economic prospects are gloomy. Since Hollande took power last year France's economy has barely improved. France is also vulnerable because it is in the Eurozone, which means the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) countries' troubles are France's troubles. Its banking sector is particularly at risk from a Greek default due to the amount of money French banks have lent in Greece. Another Great Recession could hold France back for too long. 

One option France has is to move to closer ties within Europe. More fiscal policy and banking integration with Euro currency countries. This obviously has massive problems and rather glaring obstacles. To pull closer to political integration requires the other countries to do the same. There is increasing euro-scepticism in many Euro countries, particularly in the Netherlands and Finland. The problem is that fiscal integration can only happen it all countries currently using the euro agree to do this. Hollande must convince the Northern Europeans to stimulate the PIIGS economies, rather than demand austerity which simple makes the situation worse. 

Another issue facing France is the rise of the extreme right epitomised by Marine Le Pen and her party, the National Front. If we ignore the obvious historical similarities between this and the rise of Hitler following the Great Depression in 1929, this is still an issue for France. Le Pen is an isolationist, similar to Nigel Farage in the UK except more extreme, she wants out of the Eurozone, the EU and Schengen Area as well as reducing immigration by over 95%!

So France faxes three main issues; isolationism, population decline and economic turmoil in Europe. Solving the economic trouble will be difficult, but would go a long way to reducing isolationism. The population decline problem can be fixed by immigration policies that the French won't like. 

Old World Order - UK

Population: 63 million
Area: 243,000km2
GDP: $2.4 trillion
GDP (per capita): $36,000
United Nations Security Council Veto: Yes

The Pax Britannica is long dead and buried, but Britain is still a major power broker on the world stage. Britain had veto power on the UN Security Council and has the fourth largest military expenditure in the world. It is also a member of globally important organisations such as the EU, NATO and the Commonwealth. 

The primary problem for Britain is the economy, ours is currently stagnating and many countries' economies are expected to overtake it. It's difficult to find long term predictions of where economies will be due to the volatile nature of markets and the current global uncertainty. One way is to look at countries that are larger than the UK (in terms of population) but that are currently much poorer. The UK is currently the 22nd largest in the world and expected to still be the 22nd largest in 2050 (France and Thailand are expected to drop below whilst Uganda and Sudan are expected to overtake it). To stop it from declining Britain must have a strong economy or it will risk losing its status as a great power for the first time since the term's inception at the Congress of Vienna in 1819. 

One way the UK can help its economy is by reducing its dependency on oil in favour of renewable resources. As more countries develop, the demand for oil will increase whilst the supply will dry up as current oil fields are emptied. This will cause a price spike and severe damage to any economy too dependent on oil. The UK is brilliantly placed for harvesting wind energy offshore, often cited as one of the best in the world and the best in Europe. Of the 25 largest offshore wind farms in the world, 14 are British, in 2013 Britain produced the 6th most wind energy with 5% of the National Grid being supplied by wind power. 14 more wind farms are planned to open in the next several years. Currently the UK produces 8,445 MW of wind energy, by 2020 that is expected to rise to 28,000 MW!

One of the reasons I fear the rise of glop is the fact that they wish to loosen our ties with the rest of the world. I often hear Nigel Farage and other UKIP supporters accuse the pro-EU side of living in the past. This is a ridiculous accusation, we recognise that we need to improve our ties abroad if we are to continue to succeed. They seem to be living in the past, well I've got news for them, it's not the 1800s, the Empire is gone and we are not the world's largest economy, we cannot afford splendid isolation. Britain is uniquely well placed in terms of forming alliances. We are America's closest ally, a country that will remain a superpower for a long time. We are a European nation, the most powerful collection of countries. We are also a member of the Commonwealth, other members include rising stars with as India and South Africa. 

At the moment, Britain's future is uncertain.  Unfortunately Britain faces a future in which its power is reduced to nil, by not existing! The independence movement in Scotland recently got a boost when it was announced that the Scottish old be given the option to go alone in 2014. Currently polls show this unlikely to happen, but it is still possible. If Scotland were to achieve independence in 2014 then it would likely set off the nationalists on Northern Ireland, leading to a united Ireland.  Wales and England would then be left together, and although Welsh nationalism is significantly weaker than Scottish or Irish nationalism, the disappearance of half the countries in the UK would lead to an independent Wales. 

To sum up, the UK is threatened by three problems; the economy, isolationism (primarily euro-scepticism) and nationalism. The seeds of the United Kingdom's destruction have been sowed, but it does not beam they cannot be uprooted. If the UK can return its economy to success, nationalism will lose its zeal and isolationism will look less attractive.

The Old World Order - USA

Population: 315 million
Area: 9.8 million km2
GDP: $15.6 trillion
GDP (per capita): $50,000
UN Security Council Veto?: Yes

America is undoubtably the world's leading power and with a GDP of $15.6 trillion and higher military spending than the next 10 countries combined, it's easy to see why. Although I am predicting a decline in American influence, I certainly do not believe that it will be as extreme as other countries. America is the third largest country by population and still growing, the 2010 census showed America's population rising by 9.7% since the 2000 census. By 2050 America is predicted to have a population of around 400 million people, 100 million more than today. The US also has a wealth of resources with over 20 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the 13th largest in the world. It also has plenty of land ripe for renewable energy.

So nobody is in doubt that America will remain powerful, just not the hegemon it currently is. The main rivalries will likely be China and India.

So what is America's biggest challenge? The economy. Like almost all Western nations, America's economy is still hurting from the 2007/2008 crash and things are looking dangerous ahead. The situation in the bloated banking sector has gotten worse not better, the "too big to fail" banks are now 30% bigger than the were pre-crash. America also has the most public debt in the world, over $16 trillion of it, which is a lot. This has major consequences for America as it means, China, the largest single holder of American public debt, has undue influence over it. This could become particularly problematic when China and the US negotiate deals in the future. Another, very new, problem is American governance: it's broken. Rapport between Democrats and Republicans is at an all time low, neither side trust each other and will often refuse to negotiate with each other. This is particularly true on the Republican side, currently it is controlled by the radical Tea Party base who treat compromise as a cardinal sin. All this hyper-partisanship is really problematic when both parties control at least one of the vestiges of power (the House, Senate or presidency), as all three have veto power.

If America does not get its finances and system of governance in order, it's in for a seriously rocky road in the future. 

The Old World Order

It's been a year since I wrote about the rise of developing nations, a "New World Order" of sorts. I looked into five countries, and Africa, and how rapidly they were rising and what challenges they were facing. The countries I reviewed were:

1. China
2. India
3. Brazil
4. Mexico
5. Indonesia

This year I have decided to look into the countries that are currently at the top. The countries that will be faced with a lower influence in the world as other countries overtake them. I looked into how the "Old World Order" might manage its decline, or perhaps reverse it! Over the next few days I will be discussing the following countries as well as Europe:

1. United States of America
2. United Kingdom
3. France
4. Germany
5. Japan
6. Italy
7. Canada

Old World Order countries in red, Europe in green

New World Order - Africa

Population: 1.3 billion

Area: 30 million km²

GDP: $ 1.1 trillion

GDP (per capita): $ 1,200

Economic Growth: 5.16%

Democracy? Mostly no

Unlike the countries I have previously written about, Africa proves the most difficult to assess its potential. One of the biggest obstacles is the fact it is not one country, rather a continent of 54 independent nations. There is great diversity in Africa, there are more spoken languages there than any other continent and all major religions are represented somewhere. There are also major obstacles that Africa needs to tackle before it can become a great power.

Africa is a seriously unstable continent; there have been numerous conflicts since the end of the colonial era between states and within states. One of the major issues is that when the European colonists left the continent, borders of the newly independent states were largely unchanged. In terms of ethnicity, the borders made no sense; they cut through tribes and religious groupings. In a continent as poor as Africa, this was a recipe for disaster.

The following graphs should hopefully give you a visual idea of the problems faced by Africa.

The first graph represents the Human Development Index, the better the quality of life people have in a country, the higher the HDI. It is measured out of a maximum of one, the highest HDI in the world is Norway with 0.943 and the lowest is the Democratic Republic of the Congo on 0.286. HDI is calculated using data related to life expectancy, literacy, education, standards of living and quality of life.

The second graph relates to how free Africa is (as rated by Freedom House). As you can see Africa is not a particularly free continent, with only a few countries being rated as free. This is a very important factor in the development of a country. If you look at the wealthy nations of the world, countries with very high HDI and very high GDPs, they are almost all free. The only non-free wealthy nations, are the Gulf States.

The third graph shows African country’s life expectancy, as you can see it is very low, no African country has a life expectancy higher than 74. In fact, the two worst nations, Mozambique and Swaziland have life expectancies that Britain would have had during the Roman Empire. That’s how bad this continent is. AIDs poses a major threat, since it first emerged as an epidemic in the 1980s, African nations have watched their life expectancies decline rather than rise! The situation of Africa’s health is horrible, and it is preventable. Most people in Africa die completely needlessly, to combat AIDs people need quick access to contraceptives. If Africa was to have clean drinking water, this would also cause a dramatic rise in the life expectancies. If you do wish to do some good, donate to WaterAid, the charity does phenomenal work to combat the lack of clean drinking water. Dirty water is a source of a whole host of diseases and we must help Africa remedy this terrible, human tragedy.

I could sit here and list you 101 problems Africa is facing that other continents simply do not face to the same degree, but I think my point has been made. Before Africa can become a world power it has some serious issues it must deal with first, poverty, the lack of democracy, education, health just to name a few.

I do not believe that Africa will become the next powerhouse, the five other nations I have reviewed will move into the spotlight. I do believe, though, that if Africa can sort out its issues, it could one day replace the countries at the top of the world. But the countries it will one day replace will not be the Western nations; it will be China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil.

New World Order - Indonesia

Population: 237 million

Area: 1.9 million km²

GDP: $ 1 trillion

GDP (per capita): $ 4,700

Economic Growth: 6.4%

Democracy? Yes

Despite being the fourth largest country in the world, when most people think of a new world order, they don’t think of Indonesia. Although it will never become a global superpower, I do believe it will one day challenge the Wests dominance.

One of Indonesia’s biggest disadvantages is how dispersed it is, it is made up of over 17,000 islands although over half (133 million) live on the island of Java. This still leaves 100 million people on other islands. This hampers Indonesia as it makes travelling within Indonesia difficult as a boat or plane must always be used. Although this could have its advantages, shipping by boat is still the most popular way to transport goods, by the nature of having many islands; no part of Indonesia is too far from the coast.

One way this could at least by partially remedied is by a series of tunnels or bridges. A bridge is already currently being constructed between the country’s two most populous islands, Java and Sumatra. It wouldn’t be unthinkable either to link Bali to Java or Sumatra to Malaysia. The latter would thus connect the capital Jakarta to the continent of Asia. Bridges or tunnels would be attractive in the above situations, but may not extend to some of Indonesia’s other large islands such as Borneo, Sulawesi or New Guinea. Here it may prove too expensive or even impossible to link these islands to the more populous southern islands.

Below is a map of Indonesia, the red islands on the map are islands that have a population greater than one million. Pink represents another country.

Indonesia’s growing economy can be seen by some recent events. Until 2009 Indonesia was a member of OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), it had to leave the group in 2009 because domestic demand was so high that it was no longer a net oil exporter. Oil is a good measure of the wealth of a nation as it is necessary for all major industries; the more oil a country requires, the more industry and wealth a country has.

Yet like all the other developing nations poverty is still a major issue in Indonesia, at only $4,700 GDP per capita, Indonesia is still in the rank of poor nations.

Jakarta - the Capital of Indonesia

New World Order - Mexico

Population: 112 million

Area: 1.9 million km²

GDP: $ 1.2 trillion

GDP (per capita): $ 11,100

Economic Growth: 5.5%

Democracy? Yes

Mexico is the third largest economy in North America, behind the USA and Canada and the 14^th largest economy in the world. With a population of 112 million and a booming economy, Mexico should be on track to become a global power, but the fate of Mexico is uncertain. Drug cartels pose a major threat to the stability of the country, since the government crackdown on drugs began in 2006, 55,000 people have been estimated to have been killed. The only region thought of to still be safe is the tourist region around Cancún, and even that is now being threatened. Although cracking down on drug cartels was a necessity if the country is ever to move into the tier of highly influential states, in doing so the Mexican economy has been severely hampered. The country has been completely torn apart by the Drug War, which is far from over.

Mexico has a well-established infrastructure, with over 116,000 km of paved roads. Railways, although they are good, could do with a lot of improving. In fact something that could be done that would improve the whole of the region would be a railroad stretching from the USA in the north, to Brazil in the south. This would allow for the easy transport of goods through Mexico and would significantly improve the region’s outlook.

Mexico has a big advantage over the other rising nations; it has a long border with the world’s richest country, the USA. This makes trade with the USA very easy for Mexico and allows for the quick and easy movement of goods and people.

The Mexican Drug Cartels pose a major threat to the development of Mexico

New World Order - Brazil

Population: 190 million

Area:  8.5 million km²

GDP: $2.5 trillion

GDP (per capita): $13,000

Economic Growth: 2.7%

Democracy? Yes

Brazil is the largest country by both population and size in South America and already the 6^th largest economy in the world by GDP. Amongst the countries I am reviewing, Brazil has the highest GDP per capita and the economy is continuing to grow, although at only 2.7% per annum, is much slower than many Brazilians would have hoped.

Brazil is awash with resources, there are very large proven deposits of iron and manganese which are currently being exploited and very important in Brazils growing industry. Deposits of nickel, tin, chromite, uranium, bauxite, beryllium, copper, lead, tungsten, zinc, gold and numerous other minerals are also currently being exploited. These mineral deposits are very important for Brazilian exports.

One of Brazil’s major problems is its infrastructure; Brazil has around 1.7 million km of roads, but of this 94.5% are unpaved, leaving only 96,000 km of road paved. For comparison, the UK (which Brazil is 34 times the size of) has 398,000 km of paved roads, or four times the length of Brazil’s. This will constrain growth as large lorries and trucks, which are important for economic growth, need good (paved) roads to drive on. At certain times roads in Brazil can become jammed for days, this is a problem that needs tackling soon if Brazil is to move up in the world. The country also has a very low car ownership rate of only 140 per 1,000 people. The rail transport is significantly better, but far from perfect, Brazil has no high speed rail link currently, although there is one under construction between São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

Brazil is probably most famous for its forest, the Amazon rainforest. This poses a massive conflict of interest, as I mentioned earlier Brazil has a massive amount of resources. The issue is many of them are underneath the rainforest, cutting down the Amazon is massively unpopular in the West and Western leaders are pressurising Brazil into not destroying the Amazon. This does have benefits for Brazil anyway, not destroying the Amazon helps to prevent floods and soil erosion. It is also well known that rainforests contain a massive diversity, so far less than 1% of the Amazon has been analysed, yet it accounts for a majority of modern medicines. The Amazon has great potential in the area of medicine and the profits from a strong pharmaceutical industry will benefit the Brazilian economy.

Yet like India and China, Brazil has a large amount of poor people, there are huge slum areas, especially around the largest city. If Brazil needs to help these people if the country wishes to become more influential.

Octavio Frias Bridge, São Paulo, a stunning tribute to modern Brazil

New World Order - India

Population: 1.2 billion

Area:  3.2 million km²

GDP: $ 1.7 trillion

GDP (per capita): $ 1,400

Economic Growth: 6.5%

Democracy? Yes

The booming country is the world’s largest democracy, with a population of 1.2 billion and rising. Some projections believe that the consequences of China’s one child policy and India’s rapid population growth will mean that India will have the world’s largest population. Yet despite a similar population, India has a long way to go before it catches up with China in terms of India’s economy. The Indian economy is one seventh the size of the Chinese economy. Indian growth is also smaller than China. Yet India does have one big advantage over China, it is a democracy. The importance of this is that it makes India more stable, as people do not need to turn to violent protest to change their government. Rather they simply try to elect leaders that reflect their opinions.

India does have many challenges to face, one of the most prominent is the huge amount of poverty, 42% of Indians live on less than $1.25 a day and unemployment stands at 9.8%. Indian industry is also not as good as it could be, agriculture still makes up 52% of the economy with industry and services making up 14% and 34% respectively.

Literacy also poses a serious threat to Indian growth, currently the literacy rate is only 74%, significantly below the world average of 84%. The Indian government knows that it will need to tackle this issue soon, how can India expect to grow if it has the largest population of illiterate people. At the current, poor, rate of growth India will only eliminate illiteracy in 2060, 48 years away! This is simply not good enough, the graph below compares India’s literacy rate to other countries. Note just how high China is.

Although India has massive problems in the areas of poverty, education, infrastructure and industry, this can and will be remedied. India has a lot of potential, there are many opportunities for it to grow, but the government must be prepared to take risks if the country is to achieve greatness. 

The extreme poverty people experience in the slums must be rectified soon

New World Order - China

China

Population: 1.3 billion

Area: 9.6 million km²

GDP: $11 trillion

GDP (per capita): $8,400

Economic Growth: 8.2%

Democracy? No

When it comes to developing nations, China is one of the first to come to mind. It is the world’s largest county in terms of population and the second largest in terms of GDP, set to overtake the USA within half a century. The rise of China worries the West more than the rise of the other nation, China is not a democracy and it doesn’t look like it will become one anytime soon. For the last two hundred years the top country has always been a democracy, first Britain and then the United States. In international affairs China could become top dog in the not-so-distant future.

China certainly wields the most influence of the countries I am reviewing; it is the only one with veto power on the UN Security Council and already has the second largest economy. One thing China is doing, that I would advise the West to pay close attention to, is investing in Africa. China has recognised that Africa has big potential, the continent is full of resources and it has a booming population.

China’s disadvantage is this; it’s not a democracy. China is the only one of the five rising nations that I’ve mentioned that isn’t a democracy, and doesn’t claim to be a democracy. The problem this poses for China is that the enlarging middle class will start to demand a say in government. Once this begins growth in China will slow and the country could descend into violence. Although it is unlikely that China will descend into violence any time soon, it will have to happen eventually. The citizens of China can see many fully functioning, wealthy democracies in the world and they will begin to ask; why not us?

Yet the rise of China is not so certain, recent growth figures show China’s economy is beginning to slow. The problem is a drop in demand from its largest export market – Europe and poor demand domestically. Although China’s slower growth rate would be the envy of any Western nation, if China is to continue to expand rapidly it must maintain its impressive growth figures.

A Chinese City - the high rise skyscrapers are typical in modern China

The New World Order

Between the Age of Discovery in the 15^th century and World War Two, European nations ruled the world, both directly and indirectly. The colonial Empires of Spain and Portugal dominating in the early years of Empire, but they were eventually leapfrogged by the French and British Empires, and to a lesser extent the Dutch Empire. Russia, Germany, Austria and Italy also played an important role, especially in the later years. By the time the 20^th century dawned the world was changing, Japan and the US were emerging powers and Germany was threatening the balance of power within Europe itself. The two World Wars that followed devastated Europe, both economically and politically, immediately after WWII the empires of France and Britain fell apart and the UK handed superpower status to the USSR and USA. Yet Europe was far from unimportant, the USSR was a European country after all, and Germany, France and Britain still commanded significant influence. But with the fall of the USSR in the early 1990s, for the first time in modern history, the most powerful and important nation was not a European one, rather the USA.

So I think I’ve made my point, countries rise and fall and everyone has to adapt to the new world order brought about every century or so. Although Europe is still far from unimportant, of the top 20 economies, nine are European and of the five countries with a veto on the UN Security Council, three are European.

The Question is where is the world heading? Who will be the new countries on the scene, which nations will challenge western power?

The truth is nobody really knows, but there are certainly contenders. Over the next few days I will write about countries I believe could take the mantle of power from the West. The big debate surrounds whether China will eventually best the USA or will another country be the one to overtake America?

The following are the countries I believe have a chance of besting the west:

1.       China – the favourite to become the next superpower

2.       India – A rising nation with a population set to become bigger than China

3.       Brazil – the big boy of the South American economies

4.       Mexico – the rising star that may not be if drug lords have their way

5.       Indonesia – the island nation could be a surprise winner

6.       Africa – as a continent it will not take power any time soon – but its day will surely come 

New World Order Countries in red