Tuesday 30 July 2013

The Old World Order - USA

Population: 315 million
Area: 9.8 million km2
GDP: $15.6 trillion
GDP (per capita): $50,000
UN Security Council Veto?: Yes

America is undoubtably the world's leading power and with a GDP of $15.6 trillion and higher military spending than the next 10 countries combined, it's easy to see why. Although I am predicting a decline in American influence, I certainly do not believe that it will be as extreme as other countries. America is the third largest country by population and still growing, the 2010 census showed America's population rising by 9.7% since the 2000 census. By 2050 America is predicted to have a population of around 400 million people, 100 million more than today. The US also has a wealth of resources with over 20 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the 13th largest in the world. It also has plenty of land ripe for renewable energy.

So nobody is in doubt that America will remain powerful, just not the hegemon it currently is. The main rivalries will likely be China and India.

So what is America's biggest challenge? The economy. Like almost all Western nations, America's economy is still hurting from the 2007/2008 crash and things are looking dangerous ahead. The situation in the bloated banking sector has gotten worse not better, the "too big to fail" banks are now 30% bigger than the were pre-crash. America also has the most public debt in the world, over $16 trillion of it, which is a lot. This has major consequences for America as it means, China, the largest single holder of American public debt, has undue influence over it. This could become particularly problematic when China and the US negotiate deals in the future. Another, very new, problem is American governance: it's broken. Rapport between Democrats and Republicans is at an all time low, neither side trust each other and will often refuse to negotiate with each other. This is particularly true on the Republican side, currently it is controlled by the radical Tea Party base who treat compromise as a cardinal sin. All this hyper-partisanship is really problematic when both parties control at least one of the vestiges of power (the House, Senate or presidency), as all three have veto power.

If America does not get its finances and system of governance in order, it's in for a seriously rocky road in the future. 

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