The election of George W. Bush in 2004 was incredibly
close, Bush beat his Democratic rival, John Kerry, by 2.4%. In terms of the
Electoral College, Bush won 35 more votes than Kerry. This means that if a state
worth 18 or more votes in the Electoral College had voted for Kerry instead of
Bush, the former would have won the election.
Everyone knew that the election would be a close one and
so Karl Rove, a senior adviser to the Bush-Cheney campaign devised a plan to
boost turnout amongst the Republican Party’s evangelical Christian base. So in
eleven states around the country Rove managed to get referendums on same-sex
marriage bans on the ballot. The hope was that this would encourage
evangelicals to turn out to vote to ban same-sex marriage and at the same time
they would cast a ballot for George W. Bush. Amongst those states was Ohio,
worth 20 votes in the Electoral College, enough to swing the election. The margin
of victory was only 2.1%.
Currently the Democrats have 55 Senators to the
Republicans’ 45, which means that a net change of six seats would tip the
Senate into the hands of the Republicans. So if the Democrats want to keep the Senate
they need to be strategic. One of the ways that they can do this is by copying
Rove’s 2004 strategy and get issues on the ballot that increase turnout. The
Democrats have two issues which could help them in 2014: the minimum wage and
marijuana.
According to a recent George Washington University poll,
having marijuana legalisation on the ballot makes 40% of people “much more
likely” to vote, whilst it makes a further 30% “somewhat more likely” to vote.
This is good news for Democrats as it boosts turnout, particularly amongst
young people who are notoriously bad at voting in midterms and a heavily
Democratic demographic. Another constituency of the Democratic coalition are
poorer people, who have the most to gain from raising the minimum wage. It is a
massive encouragement for people to vote if what they are voting for is a
basically a raise.
The minimum wage is highly popular and very successful on
the ballot. Since referendums on the issue started in 1988 it only failed twice,
once in Missouri and Montana, both in 1996. Since 2004 it has averaged 66% in
favour and only 34% against. Having such a popular question is hugely
beneficial to the Democrat in the same race as it brings the question of the
minimum wage to more prominence.
If Democrats want to keep hold of the Senate then they
need to make sure that Republicans gain no more than five seats (assuming the
Democrats gain none). To do this the Democrats should get marijuana and the
minimum wage on the ballot in as many states as possible, especially in ones
where a close race is expected. Even in states without a competitive Senate
race, it is still a good idea to have these initiatives to help bolster House
Democrats. There are attempts to get the minimum wage on the ballot in several
states, but so far only Alaska and South Dakota definitely have it on the 4th
of November ballot. Alaska is also the only state with marijuana legislation on
the ballot and Florida has medical marijuana on the ballot. Alaska is also one
of the states with a good chance of going Republican in November, having both
on the ballot should boost Senator Mark Begich’s chances of being re-elected.
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