Triple Dip Recession

The UK is looking increasingly likely to enter into a triple dip recession, the first of its kind in British history. Britain returned to a shrinking economy in the fourth quarter of 2012, another quarter of this will throw Britain back into recession. Unforunately for us a shrinking of 1.5% in the manufacturing sector was the primary reason for Britain's economy shrinking by 1.8% overall. This means that in 2012 the British economy did not grow at all. The increasingly bleak economic outlook is causing some senior Conservatives to break ranks, Boris Johnson has told the government to "junk talk of austerity" and try to stimulate the economy. Yet the government is refusing to budge from its position and refuses to change direction. The government is convinced that they are on the right path, despite all indicators to the contrary. David Cameron and George Osborne are stuck in the false idea that Britain's deficit is the top priority and that austerity must therefore be pursued. Unfortunately this has a negative affect on the economy, combine that with banks and consumers tightening their spending and the whole economy is spiralling downwards. 

Yet the argument that I find most bizarre is the one surrounding credibility. The government claims that if they pursue economic stimulus that they will lose all credibility and government bonds will rise. This is a bizarre argument considering how little economic credibility they have left considering their policies are driving Britain's economy into the ground. All we need to do to prove them wrong is look across the Atlantic to the USA, America pursued economic stimulus under Barack Obama and America's economy is above its pre-crisis level. Not only that, their bond yields are lower than ours and America's budget deficit is shrinking, whereas ours is growing!

The fact is the Labour Party handed the current coalition a growing economy thanks to stimulus, now the government's austerity has forced us into a double (maybe triple) dip recession. Great.

Obama's Inauguration

Barack Obama has been inaugurated for a second and final time in Washington D.C. yesterday. The significance of Obama’s second inauguration is no small thing, the breakthrough for African Americans continues. It’s also important to note what date his public inauguration took place, Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Without the work done by King and the rest of those in the Civil Rights Movement then it would have been impossible for Obama to say the oath of office.

Yet the big question is what will Obama try to do in a second term. If you listened to his inaugural address on Capitol Hill it might give you a clue. He spoke of tackling Climate Change, specifically he said “some may still deny the overwhelming judgement of science…” which most people took to be a dig at Republicans. He also brought up entitlements, Medicade, Medicare and Social Security and defended them against the accusations that they are for takers only. He implied the need for comprehensive immigration reform so that immigrants who were prepared to work and realise their dreams could become citizens. Yet one of the more memorable ideals that Obama included was that of gay rights. So not only has he become the first sitting US President to support gay marriage, but the first to include it in one of his inaugural addresses as one of his priorities! He mentioned Stonewall, the 1969 riots which sparked the gay pride movement and re-addirmed his commitment to gay marriage:

“Our journey is not complete until our gay brothers and sisters are treated as equal like everyone else, under the law. For if we are truly equal, then surely the love we commit to one another must be equal as well.”

When asked, the American people frequently choose ending the war in Iraq as Obama’s greatest first term achievement. Obama also plans on ending the war in Afghanistan by 2014, which led him to say “a decade of war is ending”. America has been in a perpetual state of war since 2001 and it will soon end. One of the big questions is will there be a peace dividend? If America is to balance its budget, there’d need to be one.

Unfortunately for Obama, one of the biggest problems on his second term will be Republican obstructionism. After the 2010 mid-terms when Republicans took control of the House, Obama has had trouble with the no-compromise section of the Republican Party that has meant that the 2010-2012 Congress was the most unproductive there’s ever been. Trying to get many of his policies through the House will be extremely difficult, but I think Obama has learnt from his first term, he needs to go in all guns blazing. 

Belfast Protests Enter 6th Week

When Belfast City Council voted on the 3^rd of December to only fly the flag on certain days of the year, most people did not realise what this would trigger. The action infuriated many unionists who feel that their British identity has been under threat for a long time. This vote was the final straw and they’ve been protesting ever since. Many of the protests have gone off peacefully but there have been many that have turned violent. On Friday night 29 police officers were injured in a confrontation in East Belfast between nationalists and protesters.

Unfortunately it doesn’t look like there is any end in sight and riots are breaking out with increasing frequency. Thankfully the protests and violence have been largely confined to Belfast, although there have been flashpoints all across Northern Ireland. In reality this could not have happened at a worse time, after a year of poor sales, shopkeepers and other businessmen were hoping that Christmas would bring a much needed boost to sales. A fear of roads being blocked by protesters and the threat of violence kept most people away. This has had a serious effect on the business community, some entrepreneurs have reported losses up to tens of thousands of pounds! 2013 was supposed to be a good year for NI; Derry/Londonderry (NI’s second city) has the UK City of Culture, Derry has been listed by a number of travel guides as one of the top destinations in 2013. This was supposed to be the year that we started to send out good images to the world. Yet this year has begun with images of violence and protests. Great.

Police are caught in the middle of clashes between nationalists and protesters
source: telegraph.co.uk

Gay Marriage

Here is a copy of the letter that I will be sending to certain Conservative MPs.

The gay marriage debate has produced many arguments for and against legalisation. I’ve listened to all these arguments and I truly feel that the anti-gay marriage side has no argument based in substance or fact. I hope that after reading this you will see why.

You claim to be ‘protecting the sanctity of marriage’, yet what are you actually ‘protecting’? You say that marriage is an institution that has been around for thousands of years, untouched. The fact of the matter is, many civilisations recognised gay marriage; many Native Americans believed that gay or bisexual people were sacred; Ancient Greece also recognised same sex unions. If we take a look at Christianity then you would be correct in asserting gay couples were never allowed to marry, but you would be empirically wrong to state that marriage has not changed over Christianity’s 2000 years of existence.

Marriage has changed massively over that time, in times gone by a woman had to marry her rapist, Catholic priests were allowed to marry until 1022 and there was no divorce until the 16^th century. Even when divorce was legalised when King Henry VIII broke away from the Catholic Church, women were entitled to nothing the couple owned. In marriage women could be raped and marriage would often take place between a young girl and an old man. In America couples of different races were not allowed to marry and the Ne Temere decree in 1907 allowed Catholic Priests to refuse to marry a Catholic to a non-Catholic. Let’s also not forget that women were once treated as property, a father could sell his daughter to a man he found ‘suitable’. At times if a woman disobeyed her husband she could be punished with death. I would imagine that all of you reading this would agree that divorce should be legal, women shouldn’t have to marry their rapists and that people of different ethnicities should be allowed to marry. Yet you argue that you want marriage to be what it was in Jesus’ day?

I often hear people cite the bible as a reason for banning gay marriage, the book often pointed to is Leviticus and to be specific, chapter 20 verse 13:

“If a man has sexual relations with another man, they have done a disgusting thing, and both shall be put to death. They are responsible for their own death.”

This isn’t just calling homosexuality a sin; it’s calling for the death penalty. Yet who among you would actually pull the trigger, flick the switch or throw the stones to kill a homosexual? Or is that too extreme? Let’s also take a moment to think about what else the bible bans, here’s a short list of things you should not do if you wish to follow the bible to a tee.

Eat or use anything that comes from a pig: Leviticus 11:7-8

Tattoos: Leviticus 19:28

Rounded haircuts: Leviticus 19:27

A man entering a Church with damaged genitals: Deuteronomy 23:1

Psychic readings: Leviticus 19:31

Gossiping: Leviticus 19:16

A wife helping her husband in a fight by grabbing the other mans testicles (it really is that specific) Deuteronomy 25:11-12

Working on the Sabbath: Exodus 31:14-15

Wearing clothes with mixed fabrics: Leviticus 19:19

Eating shellfish: Leviticus 11:10

After I put these points forward many Christians subsequently try and argue that the Old Testament no longer applies, as all the above verses are Old Testament. They say Jesus brought with him a ‘new covenant’ which trumps the Old Testament. Well if it no longer applies, why is it still read out in Church and Sunday School? Why is it still in the bible if it’s not to be obeyed? Regardless there are also things banned in the New Testament that I’m sure you’ve done:

Braided hair and wearing gold: 1 Timothy 2:9

Women simply speaking in Church: 1 Corinthians 14:34-35

Getting divorced and then marrying again: Mark 10:11-12

Men praying with their head covered: 1 Corinthians 11:4

Women praying without their head covered: 1 Corinthians 11:5

Women shaving or cutting their hair: 1 Corinthians 11:6

Wives not ‘submitting’ to their husband: Ephesians 5:22-23

Homosexuality is also deemed punishable by death in the New Testament, just look to Romans 1:26-32:

“Even the women pervert the natural use of their sex by unnatural acts. In the same way the men give up natural sexual relations with women and burn with passion for each other. Men do shameful things with each other, and as a result bring upon themselves the punishment they deserve for their wrongdoing... They know that God’s law says that people who live in this way deserve death.”

So what do you do with these parts of the bible? Do you ignore the putting to death part and concentrate on the homosexuality as a sin part? If you saw someone wearing a gold ring, you wouldn’t think twice. If you saw a woman speaking in Church, it wouldn’t anger you. So why is homosexuality not an exception?

The fact is you can’t use the bible as a weapon in this crusade against gay marriage, not unless you want to implement new laws banning what I’ve just outlined. Even so, regardless of what your religion tells you, we don’t live in a theocracy. I shouldn’t have to abide by the rules of your religion; if I want to abide by those rules then I will join your religion.

Another argument sometimes made against gay marriage is that opponents don’t want to explain to their little children how two men or two women can love each other. What on earth are you going to explain to them? All you need to do is explain that they love each other. When your kids are older you don’t need to explain to them what sexual relations between two same sex couples entail. Just like you won’t explain exactly what happens between two couples of the opposite sex, other than a brief overview of how to make children.

Some of you say that gay marriage will destroy the family unit, this I find it hard to make a counter-argument for. Simply because I can’t comprehend what you can possibly mean by this. Will gay marriage somehow make your marriage less worthwhile, will love start to seep from your relationship with your family? No. So how on earth will it destroy the family? It will allow kids with same sex parents to grow up knowing their family is being treated the same as everybody else. Allowing gay marriage doesn’t bring straight marriages down; it raises same sex couples to the same level as straight couples.

Destroying the family unit isn’t the only ‘argument’ against gay marriage that simply doesn’t make sense. If you argue that marriage is all about procreation then I can only assume that you’ll be fighting for a law that requires all couples wishing to get married to undergo fertility tests. If you turn out to be infertile then you’ll be banned from marrying, after all marriage is only about procreation. As a side note, Earth’s population is over 7 billion; we’re not near extinction, so procreation isn’t really society’s top priority.

Another non-sense argument commonly made is that gay parents will produce gay kids. Exactly, just like straight parents always produce straight kids.  

So far I have concentrated solely on the argument for gay marriage, now I’m going to turn my attention to the politics of the situation. I have heard many Conservative MPs shout loud about how the government doesn’t have a mandate to legalise gay marriage! After all, it was not in the manifesto, the party did not campaign on the issue and it was not in the coalition agreement. You see the thing is, gay marriage has massive support in the United Kingdom. According to an IPSOS-MORI poll published on the 11^th of December 2012, 73% of British people support gay marriage; considering it is even higher amongst youth indicates that this is only going to rise. If support from 73% of the public isn’t a mandate – then I don’t know what is. I would like to remind you that this isn’t the only issue on which the government position is controversial; after all Nick Clegg did sign a pledge not to raise tuition fees. There is another bill, even less popular than the tuition fee rise, that has passed the House of Commons; the Health and Social Care Bill. Not only was it missing from the Conservative Party manifesto, David Cameron and the Conservative Party actively campaigned against any more “top down reorganisations of the NHS”, yet once you’re in government you pass the biggest reform of the NHS in its history. Not only that, the bill was extremely unpopular from the start, registering polling figures as low as 8%. So there was no mandate from the voters in 2010 and no mandate from opinion polls when the bill passed, yet you still passed it. If you are a Conservative MP who voted for the Health and Social Care Bill and your argument against passing gay marriage is that there is no mandate for it. Then you are a massive hypocrite, you cannot use that to back your position.

So what are you left with now? History is on my side, marriage has been revised constantly. Turning to the bible makes no sense unless you want new, bonkers, laws. Saying it destroys the family makes no sense. Finally you turn to the idea of a mandate; but if you voted to pass the Health and Social Care Bill, you are a joke.

I hope you will think about this before deciding on what your vote should be – make history and vote yes.

Yours sincerely,

Michael Spence – British citizen

Review 2012

Well what a year we’ve had! There has been the most expensive Presidential Election of any country ever, Greece has gone from bad to worse, the Arab Spring continues in Syria and here in Britain we entered into a double dip recession. Although I don’t feel that 2012 was the year of change that 2011 was, it will still go down as important in the history books. The shooting of a 15 year old girl by the Pakistani Taliban sparked outrage in the country. The attack could help to stop people joining the terrorist organisation! The Palestinian-Israeli conflict took a turn for the worse after Israel killed one of Hamas’ leaders and Israel was furious when Palestine had its status upgraded in the UN.

The year saw a change of leadership in China and France and Greece choose a new government for its sinking economy. It was confirmed that in 2013 the EU will get a new member, Croatia, whilst the Eurozone crisis continued to rattle on.  

The year ahead of us will be the sixth since the economic crisis began and still there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Predictions are that the Eurozone economy has shrunk by a small amount in the past year, the same is true for Britain. What stopped the crisis that began in 2007 being worse than the 1929 crash was the economies of the developing nations, particularly Brazil, China and India. Unfortunately their economies are beginning to slow down, China has stopped producing double digit growth for the first time in a decade and India and Brazil are below 5%. Although European countries would kill for growth figures like those, the world economy depends on them being very high. The US has just fallen off the fiscal cliff (although a deal should be one the way) and Europe’s economy is expected to shrink again this year, if the developing nations’ economies do start to slow this could have cataclysmic knock on effects.

We are living in a time of change, what happens over the next year could prove very important in the long run.  

US Elections

The biggest election news of the year was certainly Barack Obama’s re-election as President of the United States. Obama won 51% of the vote and 332 Electoral Colleges to Romney’s 47% and 206 Electoral Colleges. Although the victory was decisive for Obama, all through the race the media outlets were calling the election neck-and-neck. Some pundits believed that it would be the closest election the US has ever seen (clearly forgetting just how close the 2000 election was). Apart from Romney, one of the biggest losers was Karl Rove. Rove sees himself as a kingmaker having helped George W. Bush get elected in 2000 and 2004 and helping with the election of Republicans in the 2010 mid-terms. Despite his previous successes, his future is uncertain thanks to his failure in the 2012 elections. Rove ran two superPACs, American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS, together the PACs spent over $300 million on the Presidential race and some Senatorial races. In every single race Rove invested in, the Republican in that race lost. Combine that with his live meltdown on Fox news during the election, Rove’s future is certainly unsafe.

Obama can certainly be delighted with his win, he is only the fourth president in the last century to win two elections with over 50% of the popular vote, the others were FDR (1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944), Eisenhower (1952 and 1956) and Reagan (1980 and 1984). For Democrats the election was also good downticket, picking up seats in the House, Senate and many state legislatures. Despite this, Democrats still won’t control the House even though they got one million more votes than Republicans! You see Republicans won control over many state legislatures in 2010. This meant that when the census figures were released and Congressional districts were redrawn, Republicans redrew them to favour themselves. This form of anti-democracy gerrymandering is performed  by both parties, for Democrats it was just unfortunate that it happened right after Republicans swept to power. As well as success for offices, liberal ideas also succeeded at the ballot box.

In Massachusetts and Connecticut voters decided to legalise medical Marijuana, whilst Arkansas rejected a similar ballot measure. Although Oregon rejected outright legalisation of Marijuana, both Colorado and Washington legalised it for recreational use! Gay rights having failed in 33 of 34 ballot initiatives prior to November, including in North Carolina in February, actually saw serious successes for the first time! In November the three states that had legalisation of gay marriage on the ballot, gay rights won! This meant that Maine, Maryland and Washington became the first states to legalise gay marriage by popular vote. In Minnesota voters rejected adding a constitutional amendment to the state constitution that would ban gay marriage. This will embolden Democrats in Minnesota who take control of the both houses in the state legislature in 2013 to try and legalise gay marriage.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, 2012 wasn’t a completely blue whitewash, Wisconsin spelled out a big defeat for them. When the republican state legislature and governor, Scott Walker, passed anti-union legislation in the state it infuriated Democrats and Unions. A similar law had been passed by Republicans in Ohio but was repealed when Ohio voters forced a referendum on the issue. Unfortunately for Wisconsinites this option was not available to them, so instead they tried to recall the governor. They got enough signatures on the ballot, but despite all their best efforts, Walker survived the recall election.

Despite that rather major setback, Democrats can certainly say that 2012 was a good year for them and their beliefs. 

Obama hugging Michele after winning the race
source: Obama's facebook page

Syrian Civil War

Days since it began: 658

Dead: 42,000+

It has been almost two years since anti-regime protests began peacefully. Unfortunately Syria has subsequently descended into Civil War and change is a long way off. Despite this there is some hope for the Syrian people, when protests began they had no arms or real organisation, the majority of the army remained loyal to Assad and the regime knew that it could always find an ally in Russia. Things are very different now, the rebels have taken control of vast swathes of the country, particularly in the north and the east. They now have an organisation to  co-ordinate the rebellion and is recognised by 19 countries as the legitimate government of Syria, Russia’s support for Assad is also weakening. Now Syria’s only real ally is Iran, which is currently one of the most isolated countries due to UN sanctions.

Despite the advances for the Free Syrian Army there have been terrible atrocities committed by Assad. In May 108 people were killed by Shabiha militia loyal to the government near the town of Houla. Later in June at least 78 people were killed by government forces in Hama, in July between 38 and 220 people were killed in Tremseh and in August government forces attacked the Darayya suburb of Damascus and killed over 600 people! In all these massacres it was mostly innocent civilians killed , in the Houla massacre almost half killed were children. To mark matters worse NATO confirmed that just last month the Syrian government began using Scud missiles. Sucds are ballistic missiles developed by the Soviets during the Cold War, and now Assas is using them on his fellow Syrians. Some fear it is only a matter of time until he uses chemical or biological weapons.

Yet despite all these atrocities associated with the Assad regime, little can be done within the UN. Russia continues to exercise its veto when it comes to the Syrian question. Although its support is weakening, it still exists and as long as it does the international community will be powerless. The Western and Arab powers must try and persuade Russia to stop blockading progress and help the Syrian people.

Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

The relationship between Israel and Palestine is no better at the end of 2012 than it was at the start. Israel continued with its, illegal, settlement program in the West Bank, forcing Palestinians off their land. The Israelis suffered two major defeats at the UN this year, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) voted by a very wide margin to allow Palestinian membership of the club. Naturally Israel and the US voted against, but only 12 other nations joined them whilst 52 abstained and 107 voted to allow it membership. On the 29^th of November the UN took a vote on whether to upgrade Palestine to “non-member observer state”, a title also held by the Vatican. The vote went even better for Palestine, 138 nations voted for the measure whilst 41 abstained and only nine nations voted against.

The relationship between Israel and Gaza, the thin strip of land bordering Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea, flared up again after Israel assassinated Ahmed Jabari, a leading member of Hamas. The ensuing attack and counter-attack resulted in hundreds of deaths (nearly all of which were on the Palestinian side) and there were fears that Israel was going to launch a ground invasion of Gaza. Thankfully a deal was brokered between the two, but a lasting ceasefire is a long way off.

In my opinion, the only way that this conflict will ever get sorted is if the UN gives Palestine full recognition. The US and Israel claim that this will make relations more difficult, but their point doesn’t make much sense. How can a deal really be reached when Israel is on a higher footing than Palestine, until both sides are even a deal will not be reached. The votes in the UN show that Israel is losing international support, Israel kills many more civilians than Palestine, Israel constantly breaks UN rules; most notably the settlements. I do appreciate that Israel is surrounded by hostile neighbours, but treating the Palestinians the way they do only weakens support for Israel in Europe and around the world. If Israel truly wants deal, they should start negotiating with the Palestinian leaders.

French Elections

It was a victory for the left in France this year with Franҫois Hollande winning the presidency and his party, the Socialist Party, did well in parliamentary elections. This left Nicholas Sarkozy to be the first President of France to lose their re-election bid in 30 years. The third candidate to make a big splash during the election was Marine LePen, the candidate for the National Front. The National Front is a far-right party, probably similar to the BNP here in the UK.

The Victorious Franҫois Hollande
Source: telegraph.co.uk

Presidential Election:

First Round:

Hollande (Socialist Party): 28.53%

Sarkozy (Union for a Popular Movement): 27.18%

LePen (National Front) 17.90%
Mélenchon (Left Front) 11.10%

Second Round:

Hollane: 51.64%

Sarkozy: 48.36%

Parliamentary Elections:

Socialist Party: 280 seats and 40.91% of the vote, a net increase of 94 seats

Union for a Popular Movement: 194 seats and 37.95% of the vote, a net decrease of 119 seats

The election came as a relief to many on the left throughout Europe. Many Europeans are fed up with the austerity induced recessions and the economic gloom that began five years ago. The left has largely been out of power throughout Europe since the financial crash.  Many Europeans would point to America which rejected austerity in favour of stimulus and is growing steadily and its economy is above its pre-crisis level. (At the time of writing I do not know if America has gone over the ‘fiscal cliff’). Hollande promised a super tax for the wealthy – 75% on incomes over €1 million – a lowering of the retirement age to 60 and the recreation of 60,000 public education jobs cut under Sarkozy. He also promised to give immigrants the right to vote after five years of legal residence and grant adoption and marriage rights to gay couples. This differed greatly from Sarkozy who outright opposed Hollande’s plans for gays and immigrants. In his first term Sarkozy had reformed universities and the retirement age, he had also significantly cut public sector employment. In a second term he promised to reduce immigration by 50% and threatened to leave the Schengen Area if certain demands were not met.  

One of the most notable figures in the election was the far-right Marine LePen, leader of the National Front. She tried to avoid some of the seriously extreme views her party had previously had by being less visibly xenophobic and anti-semetic. Some people have compared trying to change the BNP to UKIP. Nonetheless her views are still extreme, she believes that French citizens should get preferences jobs and services, in 19^th century protectionism, withdrawing from the Euro and EU as well as reducing legal immigration by 95% and re-instating the death penalty! I’m sad to say that she managed to get almost 18% of the vote in the first round. I believe her rise is mostly because of the economic crisis. As history shows us, in times of economic desperation people lurch to the extremes, just look at Germany circa 1929. 

Egypt's Chaotic Year

It’s been a rocky year for Egyptians in 2012, but there is some hope for the future. It started off well in January when parliament sat for the first time, the army subsequently handed over legislative authority to the parliament. This was a sight that Egypt may indeed be moving forward, progress seemed to occur again when the presidential election took place. Although people were not pleased with the choice in the second round of voting, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi and ex-dictator Mubarak’s last Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik. Things began to look a bit more like a rollercoaster after that, later in June the army declared that it had picked the people who would sit on a 100 member assembly that would draft a new constitution and the next day it dissolved parliament. On the other hand on the 26^th of June the courts revoked a decree allowing military personnel the right to arrest civilians and on the 30^th the army handed power to the newly elected President, Mohamed Morsi.

Right from the start Morsi faced problems, the economy was (and still is) in tatters and foreign investors are wary of putting any money into Egypt. Over the coming months there was a struggle between Morsi, allied with the Islamists and Salafists, the army and a coalition of secularists, Christians and women. Unfortunately for the final group they have no power, they were outnumbered on the Constitutional Assembly and the President is an Islamist. They fear the introduction of even parts of Sharia Law, Coptic Christians account for 10% of Egypt’s 80 million citizens. The Army hopes to remain powerful, and it may get its wish! When Morsi issued his controversial decrees in November, one of them stated that the minister of defence must come from the army. This basically means that army lacks civilian oversight. The November decrees that broadened Morsi’s powers were met with anger on the streets of Egypt as people feared a return to dictatorship.

The coalition of anti-Islamists decided to boycott the referendum on the new constitution which led to the low turnout of only 33%. In the end the constitution passed with around 64% of people voting to adopt it. Next year will be very important for the direction of the country, whether it does liberalise as many people had hoped originally or does it go down the route of Sharia law?

A poster comparing Morsi to Mubarak
source: theatlantic.com

Euorzone Crisis

For all of 2012 the crisis in the Eurozone dominated the news in Europe. As always Greece got the bulk of the attention, the problem for Greece is that every budget it passes has to have massive cuts mandated by the Troika. If they don’t pass the cuts then Greece doesn’t get the bailout money and it defaults on its debt. But everytime a budget comes out there are protests on the streets as people are fed up with the austerity. It didn’t help that Greece was forced to elect a new government twice. You see, Greece’s economy is in a death spiral, Greece struggles to pay its debts so gets a bailout from the troika. In exchange for money the troika force Greece to pass tough austerity, this forces the Greek economy to shrink as there is less money. This causes businesses to lay off workers or close altogether, adding to the government’s unemployed lists and causing the economy to shrink. This means less taxes are collected by the Greek government and more spending on unemployment benefits causing Greece to be unable to pay its debts. This forces Greece to go to the Troika for money and... you get the picture. Some fear that this death spiral could cause Greece’s economy to shrink by 25% of its pre-crisis level.

Spain had a bad year too, it was forced to bailout one of its largest banks, Bankia. Thankfully the Spanish government itself did not need a bailout, but was pressured to accept one. After summit talks in June Spain’s Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, got a massive victory; Merkel softened her hardline approach and allowed the Eurozone to bailout banks directly (rather than bailing out countries who had bailed out banks). This also brought the Eurozone to a banking union.

There were many fears that Italy could require a bailout to stay afloat; there was a problem. Italy is one of the world’s largest economies and there wouldn’t be enough money to save it. Thankfully Mario Monti, the country’s technocratic Prime Minister, has been able to steer Italy through this crisis pretty well. Unfortunately for Italy, Silvio Berlusconi is not quite gone, he is going to run for election this year. This spooked the markets as Berlusconi is a synonym for incompentence.

In the past couple of months the Eurozone has been much quieter and many are beginning to say the worst is over. And although I am optimistic, I agree with Merkel when she says the crisis is ‘far from over’.

Chinese Leadership Change

The once-in-a-decade change in the leadership of China took place last year in the capital Beijing. It was revealed in November that Xi Jinping would become the next leader of China. There were no surprises in who else got promoted; many media organisations such as the New York Time correctly predicted the exact results. China seems to be somewhat institutionalising its system of governance, this was only the second time since the Communists won the revolution in 1949 that there has been a peaceful change of power! That doesn’t mean that China doesn’t face enormous challenges.

New leader Xi Jinping shaking hands with the former
leader, Hu Jintao
Source: bbc.co.uk

The next decade will prove to be a very important one, it is predicted that the Chinese economy will gallop ahead and overtake the American economy in size. The past decade has been phenomenal for the country, consistently producing double digit growth, even as the West faced economic catastrophe. Unfortunately this growth has come with problems, corruption has spiked in China with high ranking members becoming extremely wealthy. The change China has undergone in the past two decades is astounding, it has gone from a strictly government controlled economy to one in which there is market capitalism. As a result a middle class has emerged in China, unfortunately for the leadership of China this will cause serious trouble. China is not a democracy, and as the middle class grows; the people will demand more control over their lives and more control over the government. This could cause serious problems for China, a struggle over who controls the country would destroy the economy and dash any hopes of overtaking America in the next decade. As well as these struggles, there are serious debates to be had in the ruling Communist Party. On one side are the old-style Maoists who already are frustrated with the increasing amount of capitalism in the Chinese economy, on the other side are people pushing for more market reforms. This fight could tear the party apart, the fall from grace of Maoist, Bo Xilai, will have far reaching affects within the Party.

The problems posed by corruption, a burgeoning middle class with no say in governance and arguments within the Communist Party make the next decade unpredictable, but one thing we can all agree on; it will decide where China will end up.

Russian Democracy

Leveson and the Press

After it was revealed in 2011 just how badly the British press behaves, the government called an inquiry into what had happened and what to do to prevent future bad behaviour. Lord Justice Leveson chaired the inquiry in which he listened to hundreds of witnesses, which included politicians, TV presenters, journalists, celebrities and ordinary civilians affected by the extreme behaviour of the press.

The report which was published at the end of November called for a new body to replace the Press Complaints Commission. The new body would be independent of both government and the press and would have the ability to fine companies that break the law up to £1 million. It should be noted that this would only apply to large organisations, not Twitter users or bloggers like myself.

The reaction to the report was not that surprising, nearly the entire press agreed with the Prime Minister, David Cameron’s, position that legislation should not follow as Leveson advised. The only exception was the Guardian which backed Ed Miliband’s approach of calling for full implementation of the Leveson Inquiry’s recommendations. J.K. Rowling and Gerry McCann both made statements expressing thing frustration at the PM, they felt as though they had been miss-led. Private Eye, which was actually praised in the report, complained that they proposed system would force them into joining the regulator despite good behaviour previously.

 This is a once in a generation chance to reign in the extremities of the press without damaging the all important freedom of the press. We must realise that too many people have had their lives torn apart by the excesses of the press and that this must stop. Labour is going to bring a vote in the House of Commons, which they will likely win thanks to rebelling Tories and Liberal Democrats, but unfortunately Labour does not have the ability to create laws and as such it will not actually go into law. This is quite disappointing, as the majority of the country backs the Leveson report.

Greek Elections

Greece has been hit the hardest of any Western nation, Greece’s economy has hit rock bottom and is unlikely to recover any time soon. The ratings agency Fitch gives Greece’s credit rating as CCC, which means that default is highly likely. With the terrible financial collapse and the oppressive austerity being forced from the government, Greece’s governing party PASOK was expecting a walloping at the election.

Citizens first went to the polls in May 2012 to try and elect a new government. Unfortunately for the Greeks, nobody got a majority or could form a coalition. The primary issue for most Greeks was the bailout from the ‘troika’, without money from the troika Greece would be unable to pay its debts and it would default. But the money doesn’t come without a catch; in exchange for bailout money Greece must force harsh austerity on its citizens. Many Greeks are fed up with the austerity and would rather take default. Of the three main parties New Democracy (Conservative) and PASOK (Democratic Socialist) are pro-bailout and together they got 149 seats, two short of a majority. It is important to note PASOK’s share of the vote declined by over 30% whilst ND declined by 15%. Opposing the bailout was SYRIZA, which got 52 seats and almost 17% of the vote, very close to ND’s 19%.

This meant that another election had to be scheduled for June, which left Greece with no elected government for a whole month. Luckily for the Greeks they elected a government this time, the ND-PASOK coalition got 162 seats to SYRIZA’s 71.

One important point left unmentioned thus far is the rise of Golden Dawn, sounds like a nice party right? Wrong. It is a neo-Nazi party with horrible anti-immigrant, anti-women and anti-gay ideologies. The horrible party got 7% of the vote and 18 seats in the June election, Golden Dawn is not alone, far right parties have been gaining ground all over austerity weary Europe. In France the National Front leader, Marine LePen, received 18% of the vote in the first round of the Presidential Election. Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Finland have all experienced a rise in the far right.

The elections earlier last year do not actually solve anything; they just give Greece a stable government for the time being. Merkel and her European allies better watch how tough they’re making Greece’s austerity, or things could turn very, very foul.

Terrorism

Terrorism did not slow down in 2012 unfortunately, thousands of people were killed across the globe in terrorist atrocities. Yet most of those attacks took place in just a handful of countries:

Country	Attacks*	Dead
Iraq	55	1,676
Afghanistan	35	543
Nigeria	21	511
Pakistan	30	425
Yemen	14	328
Somalia	11	78
Russia	9	51
Kenya	8	47
Colombia	5	31
China	2	26

*Co-ordinated attacks that take place on one day are counted as one attack.

Looking at this rather horrifying table you can see that Iraq had the worst year of any country. Terrorists killed over three times as many people as in Afghanistan, the second worst affected country. One of the most prominent terrorist attacks of the year was not in Iraq or Afghanistan, but Pakistan; the shooting of 15 year old Malala Yousafzai. Thankfully Malala survived and is recovering well in a British hospital. There were protests all across Pakistan against the assassination attempt and 50 Islamic clerics issued a fatwā against the perpetrators. Despite this the Taliban claim they still want to kill her and her father. So what was her ‘crime’? Trying to get young girls into education in Pakistan, this infuriated the Taliban who are anti-education especially when it comes to women. As Malala rose to fame in Pakistan, the Taliban increasingly sent death threats to her home and on the internet. But she continued in her struggle, in 2011 Desmond Tutu nominated her for the International Children’s Peace Prize and later won Pakistan’s first National Youth Prize. Time magazine recently selected her as the runner up of Time Magazine’s person of the year.

There was some pleasant news on the terrorist front, Anders Breivik, was finally sentenced to Prison for this mass shooting and bombing in July 2011.  There is finally closure for the families of the 77 killed and those that were on the island of Utøya on that fateful day.

Up until November 2012, Northern Ireland was relatively quiet on the terrorism front, apart from the odd bomb scare. Then on the 1^st of November a prison officer was shot dead. Then trouble began after Belfast City Council voted to fly the Union flag on certain days of the year. That seriously upset some unionists who for the past few weeks have been causing chaos across Northern Ireland, but particularly in Belfast.

Terrorism is something that will likely always exist, it will never go away but certain places such as the Basque region, Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka all prove that things can be done to improve the situation, to show the terrorists that talking produces better results. The West should learn from these if it ever wants to truly ‘defeat the Taliban’.

Malala Yousafzai's page in Time Magazine

UK Elections

The 2012 UK elections were nothing out of the ordinary, there was no general election so no change of government. Yet there were still important elections, in May council elections were held across England, Scotland and Wales as well as several mayoral elections and the London Assembly. The election went fantastically for Labour, which was somewhat expected as opposition parties tend to do well in mid-term elections.

Labour received 38% of the vote to the Conservative’s 31% and the Liberal Democrat’s 16%. This meant that Labour gained 823 councillors and 32 councils whilst the Conservatives lost 405 councillors and 12 councils and the Lib Dems lost 336 councillors and one council. It is important to note that Labour gained quite a few councils that previously had no overall control. In London things were different, Boris Johnson won re-election, making him the only Conservative success of the election. Johnson won about 50,000 more votes than Labour’s Ken Livingstone in the final count. The London Assembly was more in line with the rest of the country as Labour gained at the expense of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. In the Assembly Elections the Green Party did well, replacing the Lib Dems in third place after receiving around 40,000 more votes than them.

In November elections were held for Police and Crime Commissioners across England and Wales, as in these elections people did not vote on party lines, independents did extremely well. Off the 41 PCC positions available, independents won 12, Labour 13 and the Conservatives 16 (despite receiving 250,000 fewer votes). The Liberal Democrats got nothing.

Overall the 2012 elections were very good for Labour, polls show that as the year closes Labour has a 10-15 point lead over the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are losing third place to UKIP. The next general election will not occur until 2015 so there is plenty of time for things to change. If we keep on track we could have a Prime Minister Ed Miliband. 

Olympics

The Olympic Games held in London last year have been critically acclaimed as one of the best Olympic games ever, possibly the best ever. The fortnight over which the games took place was strange in Britain; it is rare that the country comes together. Yet for the course of the Olympic Games the country was mesmerised by the success of our athletes. Andy Murray beat Roger Federer to win gold after his defeat in the Wimbledon final less than a month earlier. Chris Hoy finished his Olympic career in style and became Britain’s most decorated Olympian. Jessica Ennis won a gold and Mo Farah won two bringing joy to many Britons. Note the multi-ethnic nature of Britain’s success. Foreign success was also aplenty, Michael Phelps added six medals – including four golds – to his Olympic chest and Usain Bolt once again triumphed.

Cycling was Britain’s greatest success, Team GB won eight of 18 available golds, no other country managed more than one. Rowing was Team GB’s other major success, bringing in four more golds. In the end Team GB finished third in the overall medals table with 29 gold meals and 65 in total.

Mo Farah looking astonished as he won fold
source: mirror.co.uk

The Paralympic Games were indisputably the greatest ever; they too had success for Britain. Millions cheered on athletes with a range of disabilities. Most famous was Ellie Simmons who swam her way to two golds, a silver and a bronze.

Yet there were some things about the 2012 Olympics and Paralympics that were just as important but had nothing to do with sport. London 2012 was the first Olympic games in which every National Olympic Committee sent female competitors. Saudi Arabian athlete Sarah Attar became the first female Saudi to compete in a track and field event. Despite finishing a full lap behind her competitors in her 800m heat, she was given a standing ovation by the crowds in the Olympic Stadium to mark her historic run. Oscar Pistorious became the first disabled athlete to compete in the Olympics. The Paralympic Games in 2012 were also the first to sell out and a record 164 countries participated, 18 more than at Beijing. David Cameron said something quite moving later that year at the Conservative Party Conference, something that brought his wife Samantha to tears. The Cameron’s son, Ivan, died three years ago, he was severely disabled and in a wheelchair.

“When I used to push my son Ivan around in his wheelchair, I always thought that some people saw the wheelchair, not the boy.

Today more people would see the boy and not the wheelchair – and that’s because of what happened here this summer.”

Queen Elizabeth II's Diamond Jubilee

It has been 60 years since the Queen became the monarch of the United Kingdom and the British Empire (now the Commonwealth Realms). She is the second longest reigning monarch in British history and the 56^th longest reigning monarch of all time (with verifiable dates). A lot has changed over the past 60 years, the Empire is long gone and a referendum in Jamaica will likely see it become a republic, whittling down the Commonwealth Realms to just 15 nations. To mark her Diamond Jubilee, celebrations were held all across the Commonwealth with the biggest celebration taking place in London. Here the Thames River saw the largest flotilla of boats since the 17^th century and the Queen also attended a concert. Last month she also became the first monarch to attend a meeting of the cabinet since 1781 and had 169,000 km² of land in British Antarctic Territory named Queen Elizabeth Land in her honour.

Although the monarchy will certainly remain in the UK as long as the Queen remains on the throne, when she dies its future will become uncertain. Will we still have a monarchy in 2112? Only time will tell.

The Queen Attending the Flotilla
source: mirror.co.uk