Merry Christmas!

I would like to take the time to thank everyone who has been reading my blog for the past eleven months, it's much appreciated. I hope that you all have a wonderful Christmas holiday with your family, and that Santa is kind to you all and doesn't leave a lump of coal!

Unfortunately there are people out there who will be having a less joyful Christmas, the Connecticut victims' families will be celebrating their first Christmas without their family members, there will be people spending their first Christmas homeless. If you want to help some of those this holiday season you could give a small donation to a charity or organisation. Although it is too late for Christmas day, you can still help someone who has fallen on hard times.

Anyway, I wish you a merry Christmas and if you're still travelling, I hope you have a safe journey.

-- Michael.

So What is the Fiscal Cliff?

If you’ve been listening to American politics at the moment you will almost certainly have heard of the term ‘fiscal cliff’. Basically it is a series of tax rises and spending cuts that will go into effect in January 2013 unless Congress brokers a compromise and passes new legislation. The combined effect of the spending cuts and tax rises, most experts agree, would push America back into recession during the summer of 2013 (remember a recession is defined  as two quarters in a row with negative growth in an economy).

So what are the tax rises and spending cuts? Well most of the spending cuts are a result of a political battle that took place last year. Basically in 2011 the political system of the US was in disarray, the Republicans (who controlled the House) were refusing to raise the debt ceiling (and therefore cause America to default on its debts and send the American – and world – economy into freefall), unless they got certain radical laws passed. The Democrats who controlled the Senate and Presidency were unwilling to give in to all of the radical demands. A deal was finally agreed just days before the US reached the debt ceiling and defaulted. Part of the Budget Control Act of 2011 was that if Congress did not pass a deficit reduction bill worth $1.2 trillion by the 2^nd of January 2013 then automatic cuts (sequestrations) would take place across the board, half from defence, half from domestic spending. As well as this, federal unemployment benefits, the bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cut would all expire, tax thresholds would return to their 2000 level and new taxes would be imposed.

Part of the problem here is that Republicans want to take more from domestic spending rather than defence (which is the Holy cow to Republicans), whereas Democrats are on the opposite side. Obama is trying to persuade the Republicans to let the bush tax cuts expire, but only for the top 2%, the tax cuts for the other 98% would be made permanent. There is also talk of cutting social security, which has infuriated ordinary liberals and many Democrats in congress as social security doesn’t contribute to the deficit and actually has a surplus!

To make matters worse, the Republican Speaker of the House, John Boehner, has just suffered a humiliating, self-inflicted, defeat. John Boehner tried to pass a bill in the House called ‘Plan B’, which was basically a Republican wish list of everything they wanted. Boehner knew it would never even get looked at in the Democratic Senate, so he didn’t pass it for policy reasons. Boehner was trying to put on a show of strength and make the Republicans seem united against President Obama. The only problem; he had to cancel the vote when he realised that he would not have the support to get it through the Republican House. As a result he sent the House of Representatives home for Christmas. Seriously. Although they will be back after Christmas, there will only be six full days until the new year. American politics could get very interesting over the next couple of weeks; if Congress and the President fail to reach a compromise then the effects will be devastating. Expect stock markets to plummet across the globe instantaneously, and here in Britain we will almost certainly experience a triple dip recession. Yay. 

Massive Rifts Opening Up in Tory Ranks

The current coalition government of the United Kingdom is known to be divided, which is to be expected as there are two different parties in power. We know there are rifts between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives over social and economic policies, but what is usually less visible is the rift within the Conservative Party.

The rift in the Conservative Party is quite surprising considering that it was only two years ago in which they placed first in a general election. Most people would expect, at this stage, for the Labour Party to be rife with divisions and the Conservatives to be putting on a united front. Yet the Tory Party has shown time and time again that there are massive divisions in the party that are threatening to tear the party apart. HS2, the high speed rail link between London and cities in the north of England has angered a lot of the Tory MPs from the rural regions through which the new route will pass. There are also large divisions over the possibility of building a third runway at Heathrow Airport. Europe has always been a headache for Tory Party leaders, David Cameron is no exception. Many within the party demand a referendum on whether or not to stay in the European Union, much of the party is euro-sceptic and would rather we leave the EU altogether.

The most recent issue to create a colossal divide within the Conservative Party is that over gay marriage, the proposals have been supported by Cameron and much of his cabinet ministers for many years. The proposals also have support of the ascendant Boris Johnson and both the opposing parties. Yet there is increasing anger amongst many Tory backbenchers who are opposed to gay marriage and believe that the government has no mandate to pass it since it was not in the Tory Party manifesto or the coalition agreement. (I don’t see how 70%-80% public support for a policy isn’t a mandate)

All this makes things very difficult for the government, there are rifts opening up everywhere and over every issue. If the coalition survives until the 2015 general election I will be very impressed and very surprised. 

Plebgate Scandal Returns

It was supposed to have been largely wrapped up when Andrew Mitchell resigned as government chief Whip but this week the ‘plebgate’ scandal has taken a new turn. A police officer has been arrested over allegations that he submitted false evidence, the officer claimed that he was a member of the public that was passing by the gate to Downing Street when he heard the row between police and Mitchell. He claimed that he heard Mitchell use the word pleb – an allegation that Mitchell has always denied. He claims that he was with a group of tourists who were shocked at the way the chief whip spoke to police. CCTV footage has now emerged that there was nobody near the gate at the time of the incident, never mind a crowd.

This all was naturally welcomed by Mitchell and his supporters who now see the tide of public opinion turning in Mitchell’s favour. Mitchell and his allies are also furious at the Police Federation who in the weeks following Mitchell’s confrontation appeared to use the plebgate scandal as a way to get revenge on the government for police cuts and changes to their pay and conditions.

Although we will never know for certain whether Mitchell used the world pleb, two officers who were definitely present accuse him of using that word whereas Mitchell denies it. This is still a very serious allegation, the officer in question will almost certainly lose his job and there may be others within the force who will have to leave. 

Newtown Shooting Leaves 27 Dead

For many families this Christmas is not one they will remember with happiness, 27 people were murdered in Newtown, Connecticut yesterday. The massacre took place at Sandy Hook Elementary School, as a result 20 of the murdered were children. This is truly horrific, the local community which is small and close knit has been devastated by this. Although after a long time the community will heal, this horrible day will never be forgotten by the residents of Newtown. It is truly sickening. But there is a bigger picture to think of here, mass murder is not uncommon in the US, already this year there have been several events in which multiple people have been killed by a firearm. In Oregon just the other week two people were killed at a shopping mall, in Aurora Colorado earlier this year a man walking into a cinema and shot twelve people, unfortunately I could list dozens more.

Of the other OECD nations, the only one to have a higher rate of firearm homicide is Mexico, which is currently enthralled in a drug war. Every other OECD nation has a lower firearm homicide rate, far lower. So why is it just America? Well many people would point to the high gun ownership rate, America has the highest ownership rate of any country on the planet, rich or poor, 88 out of 100 people own a gun! For comparison, the next highest rate is Yemen with 55 out of 100 people owning a gun. What type of guns people can get access to is also part of the problem, many of the weapons used in mass shootings are semi-automatic or have extended magazines allowing the shooter many shots before reloading. These weapons used to be illegal, under the assault weapons ban of 1994 but when it expired in 2004 (under a Republican congress and President) it was not renewed, and has not been since.  Although you can make a self-defence argument when talking about the general legality of guns, you cannot make a legitimate argument for the legality of assault weapons. A weapon that has been designed for use in battle really shouldn’t be easily available in Wall-Marts across America.

If the Democrats decide to take this issue up they will find it extremely difficult, the NRA is the most powerful lobbying group in Washington and has massive funds to put behind candidates that support its wishes. Passage of a bill will not occur in this lame duck session nor the congress elected to take its place in February, as both have a Republican-controlled House, it depends how well Democrats do in the 2014 mid-terms. But the next time the Democrats take control over everything, re-introducing the assault weapons ban would seem like a sensible move.

North Korea Launches Rocket

The world condemned North Korea this morning after it successfully launched a rocket into orbit. This has terrified South Korea which shares a hostile border with its northern neighbour and Japan which is also in close proximity. Both nations are aware that North Korea has nuclear weapons and with this successful satellite launch, may have a means of delivery.

Under UN sanctions North Korea is banned from launching rockets, immediately Japan called on the Security Council to hold meetings over the event. Morocco, which holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council, announced that that there would be closed door discussions today. The US was swift in its condemnation of the launch, the White House made the following statement this morning: “The international community must work in a concerted fashion to send North Korea a clear message that its violations of UN Security Council resolutions have consequences.” We won’t know for a while what those consequences will be yet. It will be important to watch what China does in this situation, China is North Korea’s closest ally, and although it warned North Korea strongly against launching the rocket, its response has been noticeably tamer than those of the other Security Council members. China will likely be angry at North Korea for following this path; this launch will likely cause North Korea, Japan and the US to increase military cooperation in the area which could weaken China’s position. Getting a resolution past China, which has a veto, could still prove difficult.

This is all happening in the context of starving North Koreans who have been brainwashed to believe that the North Korean state, and in particular its leaders, are saints. The rare glimpse we get of North Korea from the outside world is truly shocking, people praise their leaders for their guidance but unbeknownst to them their leaders don’t care about them. With the knowledge of widespread brainwashing, the type Hitler tried in Germany; it’s hard to see a revolution occurring in North Korea for a long, long time. With that in mind the West, and in particular South Korea and Japan, must prepare for a world in which North Korea can wipe out whole cities in its neighbouring countries. Would the US placing nuclear weapons in South Korea or Japan be out of the question? North Korea may be less likely to use a nuclear weapon frivolously if it thinks Japan or South Korea could launch an immediate counter strike. Could we see a revival of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) Doctrine in North East Asia? It is early days yet, but the craziness of the North Korean regime should not be underestimated, the West’s reaction needs to be swift. Very swift.  

Morsi Bows to Pressure

Early this month I posted about Egypt’s democracy being on a knife edge, the President Mohamed Morsi had issued a number of decrees with massively expanded his authority. This sparked massive protests, the biggest since last year’s revolution, under pressure Morsi has cancelled some of the controversial decrees. Morsi has cancelled the decrees which block judges from challenging his authority and give him the ability of pass ‘emergency laws’. Yet this does not mean that the protests will end and everyone will go home happy, the opposition protests also want the constitutional referendum cancelled. The constitution is not very popular with the opposition; they claim that it ignores the needs of women, secularists and the country’s significant minority.

The protests have resulted in seven deaths and over 700 injuries, the Cairo headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood (Morsi’s party) have been set on fire and protesters have threatened the Presidential Palace. Morsi has been forced to retreat behind barbed wire, police, militias and tanks as the protests have become increasingly violent. Some of the protesters have begun calling for Morsi to resign.

Egypt’s powerful army has warned against the country entering a “dark tunnel” and have called for the two sides to meet and broker a compromise. Despite Morsi’s repeal of a decree, a compromise is looking increasingly unlikely. Just today an opposition group has announced that they will boycott the referendum, which is scheduled to take place next Saturday. This doesn’t seem like the best idea, in boycotting the referendum they will not register a vote against it and therefore make the constitution more likely to become the law. It is a dangerous game they are playing, both sides argue that they have the ideas of the revolution at heart but they seem unable to agree on anything.

The events of the following week will be extremely important for the future of Egypt and the chances of its democracy surviving.

Syria Crisis: Day 716

In the 716 days that have succeeded the 15^th of March 2011 roughly 40,000 Syrian civilians have been killed in the Syrian Civil War that threatens Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. Despite set-backs in the early parts of the War, more recently it would seem that in recent months the Syrian opposition has been slowly gaining ground and possibly the upper hand. On the international stage the Syrian opposition is continuously gaining ground over the Assad regime, with the formation of the ‘National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces’, the revolution gained on a key diplomatic front. Since then 11 countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Turkey, UK and Italy) have recognised the National Coalition as the ‘sole legitimate representative of Syria’, most of the rest of Europe and the United States have given the NC at least some recognition.

Inside Syria things are looking darker for the regime; rebel forces have taken a number of military bases, including an airport, in the eastern province of Deir Ez-Zor. The rebels have also made some significant advances in Syria’s second city of Aleppo, capturing at least five army bases in the past few weeks. Capturing these bases not only provides the rebels with good morale, but with crucial tanks, heavy weapons and anti-aircraft missiles. High profile defections seem to happen every couple of weeks, this helps to weaken Assad politically.

Yet it’s not all over for the Assad regime, international allies in the form of Iran and Russia are proving vital for the regime. There have been reports that Russia has been supplying Assad with tonnes of banknotes to prevent the economic collapse of the Syrian government. Russian made weapons have also allowed the regime to gain a significant advantage over the rebels in technology.

Despite this, the odds are stacked against Assad, what worries many people are the possibility of the use of chemical weapons. The international community does know that the Assad regime has many chemical weapons; if Assad chose to use them they would devastate Syria. Releasing just one chemical weapon in a densely populated city such as Aleppo would kill thousands of civilians in one fell swoop. Although the Assad regime has promised never to use them, we know he is not a trustworthy person.

If Assad did choose to use chemical weapons, it would be the end for his regime. There is no way Russia could justify supporting his regime if he used this form of attack. It would spark such an outrage in western countries that military intervention could become a possibility, President Obama and David Cameron have both spoken about how the use of chemical weapons would be a red line. If Assad chooses to use chemical weapons, his end would be swift 

Petraeus Scandal No. 2

David Petraeus has been engulfed in scandal again, only weeks after the details of his affair destroyed his career. The scandal only came to light when the Washington Post released a tape that had been leaked to it, the tape consists of David Petraeus speaking ‘off the record’ to Fox News contributor, Kathleen McFarland in early 2011.

In the tape McFarland is passing on some information from her boss, chairman of Fox News Roger Ailes. She explains to Petraeus that Ailes wants him not to accept any position the Obama administration offers him, except chairman of the joint chiefs, resign in six months and run for President (as a Republican). As the conversation continues Petraeus reveals that this is not really new information, the owner of Fox News, Rupert Murdoch, had already approached Petraeus about running for President against Obama and promised him to ‘bankroll’ Petraeus’ campaign! At one point McFarland says the following:

“The big boss [Murdoch] is bankrolling it. Roger’s going to run it. And the rest of us are going to be your in-house.”

This should prove to everyone, what many people already believe, that Fox News is a media wing of the Republican Party. Simple as. You can argue whether that is good, bad or it doesn’t matter, but you can’t argue whether it is a wing of the party.

Regardless of the fallout from this case, we should take note of this in the UK. When speaking to Lord Justice Leveson Murdoch claimed he never asked a politician anywhere for anything, anyone could tell that he was lying. This proves it, Murdoch meddles in politics wherever he is, he is dangerous and he must be stopped, he simply has too much power. 

Democracy in Egypt on Life Support

When Hosni Mubarak was ousted as dictator of Egypt last year there was a wave of hope that change was coming. In the past year and a half there were the first elections to Egypt's parliament and the position of president was actually elected. Yet Egypt's fledgling democracy now lives on a knife edge. Riding on a wave of praise due to his involvement in the Gaza-Israeli ceasefire, Morsi decided that it would be a good time to give himself radical new powers and issue other decrees that infuriated Egyptians. The resulting fury spilt into protests across Egypt and the largest (as always) was in Tahrir Square, Cairo. The protests, which are the largest since the 2011 Revolutionary Protests, should remind Morsi that he only has weak support. Although Morsi did win the Presidential election, he only received 51.7% of the vote and the only other candidate was a Mubarak ally. Many Egyptians chose Morsi, not because they liked him by because he was the lesser of two evils. Ordinary civilians aren't the only ones angry at Morsi, frightful investors cause the stock market to plummet by 12%, Egypt's judges have gone on strike an basically every Christian, secularist and female representative in parliament has resigned.

For many Egyptians the decrees prove their extreme suspicion of Morsi and his party, the Muslim Brotherhood. One of the more controversial decrees is to put the president above the law until a constitution imposes a limit! Morsi had also decreed that there can no longer be any legal challenges to the body that drew up the constitution. Not all the decrees have caused anger, the decision to fire the public prosecutor, a Mubarak appointee and allowing the retrials of Mubarak's allies were welcomed.

The constitution going forward to a referendum could easily be defeated by a coalition of secularists, Christians, women and trade unions. Many fear the constitution puts too much power in the hands of the executive and the military (a combination which ruled with an iron grip for 40 years). The decision that the defence minister must also was be in the army had worried many that without civilian oversight, the army will be as powerful as ever. If Egyptians reject the constitution it gives hope that a new one will be fairer and less Islamist. The opposition needs to form a strong coalition to fight back against the powerful Muslim Brotherhood.