In the 716 days that have succeeded the 15th
of March 2011 roughly 40,000 Syrian civilians have been killed in the Syrian
Civil War that threatens Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. Despite set-backs in the
early parts of the War, more recently it would seem that in recent months the
Syrian opposition has been slowly gaining ground and possibly the upper hand.
On the international stage the Syrian opposition is continuously gaining ground
over the Assad regime, with the formation of the ‘National Coalition for Syrian
Revolutionary and Opposition Forces’, the revolution gained on a key diplomatic
front. Since then 11 countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
UAE, France, Turkey, UK and Italy) have recognised the National Coalition as
the ‘sole legitimate representative of Syria’, most of the rest of Europe and
the United States have given the NC at least some recognition.
Inside Syria things are looking darker for the regime;
rebel forces have taken a number of military bases, including an airport, in the
eastern province of Deir Ez-Zor. The rebels have also made some significant
advances in Syria’s second city of Aleppo, capturing at least five army bases
in the past few weeks. Capturing these bases not only provides the rebels with
good morale, but with crucial tanks, heavy weapons and anti-aircraft missiles.
High profile defections seem to happen every couple of weeks, this helps to
weaken Assad politically.
Yet it’s not all over for the Assad regime, international
allies in the form of Iran and Russia are proving vital for the regime. There
have been reports that Russia has been supplying Assad with tonnes of banknotes
to prevent the economic collapse of the Syrian government. Russian made weapons
have also allowed the regime to gain a significant advantage over the rebels in
technology.
Despite this, the odds are stacked against Assad, what
worries many people are the possibility of the use of chemical weapons. The
international community does know that the Assad regime has many chemical weapons;
if Assad chose to use them they would devastate Syria. Releasing just one
chemical weapon in a densely populated city such as Aleppo would kill thousands
of civilians in one fell swoop. Although the Assad regime has promised never to
use them, we know he is not a trustworthy person.
If Assad did choose to use chemical weapons, it would be
the end for his regime. There is no way Russia could justify supporting his
regime if he used this form of attack. It would spark such an outrage in
western countries that military intervention could become a possibility,
President Obama and David Cameron have both spoken about how the use of
chemical weapons would be a red line. If Assad chooses to use chemical weapons,
his end would be swift
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