North Korea Determined to Start War

In 1962 the world braced itself for nuclear war, it was looking increasingly likely that the USA and USSR would be unable to come to an agreement over what to do about the Caribbean nation of Cuba. Thankfully the crisis was ended with a peace deal, not nuclear war, but the event has generally been noted by historians as the one occasion when nuclear war was a real possibility.  It would appear that Kim Jong-Un is trying to add 2013 as the next year when nuclear war could be a realistic outcome. In the past few months he has been ratcheting up tensions with the US and South Korea over a multitude of issues. The latest escalation came when the North released the following statement:

“We formally inform the White House and Pentagon that the ever-escalating US hostile policy towards the DPRK [North Korea] and its reckless nuclear threat will be smashed by the strong will of all the united service personnel and people and cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike… and that the merciless operation of its revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.”

In response to the declaration the US has begun moving nuclear defences to Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. Unfortunately this has been taken as an act of aggression by North Korea which seems hell bent on re-starting the Korean War, taking millions of people with it.

Already North Korea has declared a state of war with South Korea, although no direct actions have yet taken place. It has further antagonised the south by threatening to re-start a project to great weapons grade nuclear material and promised to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire”. Its actions earlier this year by performing another nuclear test have not helped the situation.

But will all this actually lead to a war? It’s difficult to say, it could be that Jong-Un is trying to solidify power by proving to the military leaders that he can be tough on the West. The difficulty is that Jong-Un could heighten tensions so much that war becomes inevitable, that the US or South Korea launch a pre-emptive strike out of pure fear. Very little is known about the Orwellian society so attempting to predict an outcome is difficult, will the north go to war? I would like to think not, but I’m not going to try and predict what will happen next.

North Korean Craziness

If there was a prize for craziest regime, I believe North Korea would win that prize. In the past week several stories have emerged of the regime threatening catastrophic war. A couple of days ago North Korea threatened to void the armistice that ended the devastating Korean War in 1953. North Korea threatened both South Korea and Japan with war if certain conditions are not met, the regime claimed that they would turn the Seoul Presidential Palace into a "sea of fire". The issue over which North Korea is getting so aggressive about is joint sea and land exercises by the South Korean and US military which are due to take place on the 11th, four days away. In response South Korea has said that any attack would be taken as an act of war and South Korea will defend itself.

But even North Korea managed to top its own craziness and has threatened the US with nuclear war. The regime claims that the US is using the military drills as a cover to plant nuclear weapons. "Since the US is about to ignite a nuclear war, we will be exercising our right to pre-emptive nuclear attack against the headquarters of the aggressor in order to protect our supreme interest." Paranoid, right?

It is true that the North Korean regime always uses aggressive rhetoric when it comes to South Korea and its allies. Yet this seems to be a new level, threatening nuclear annihilation. This heightening of rhetoric occurred when the UN Security Council was discussing new sanctions on North Korea due to their nuclear test last month. The heightened rhetoric probably helped to push China into agreeing to the new sanctions earlier today, this will put real pressure on the small, isolated nation.

The big problem with North Korea is that no-one knows how to deal with it. An invasion would be totally out of the question, China is unlikely to agree to it so an invasion from the north is out of the question. The border between South and North Korea is too heavily defended and an amphibious invasion would be extremely costly to the invader. We have to see how sanctions go but I feel that eventually different actions will have to be taken. The US may be forced to place nuclear weapons in South Korea and Japan to try and act as a deterrence against North Korea. In the mean time, let's hope they don't do anything stupid! 

North Korean Nuclear Test

North Korea has further infuriated the world earlier today when the small, isolated country carried out a third nuclear test. North Korea is a rogue state, it only has one friend in the world: China. Despite the alliance with North Korea, China is worried about what its little neighbour will do if it actually acquires fully functioning, long range, nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly the West will call for tougher sanctions on North Korea, but this won’t stop Kim Jong-Un from achieving the inevitable. The rest of the world must realise that North Korea will become a truly nuclear state within the next few years, and although we should do whatever we can to slow their progress, we must prepare for what comes after North Korea’s success. A nuclear North Korea would pose a grave threat to world security, none more so than neighbouring South Korea and close-by Japan. In both these countries people fear that the craziness of the North Korean regime should not be underestimated and that a nuclear attack on either country should not be dismissed. So what can Japan and South Korea do to defend themselves? The North Korea-South Korea border is already the most heavily fortified in the world and both countries have a massive military. Currently the situation is somewhat stable, but nuclear weapons for North Korea would throw the balance off completely. One suggestion is stationing US nuclear weapons in Japan and South Korea in a form of a nuclear sharing programme. Probably similar to how the US currently shares some nuclear weapons with several NATO countries. Naturally placing US weapons in South Korea and Japan would make China very nervous, putting a strain on Sino-American relationships. Considering the rise of China, the Americans might be wary of angering the future super power. For obvious historical reasons, many in Japan would be very upset at the idea of American nuclear weapons in Japan, especially considering they’d likely be in the south of the country close to Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

Unfortunately it’s impossible to know a way out of the situation. An invasion is totally out of the situation as the North Korean military is very strong for a small country and the border is extremely well fortified. A war would likely be as devastating to the Korean peninsula as was the previous Korean War in which 2.5 million people were killed. 

North Korea Launches Rocket

The world condemned North Korea this morning after it successfully launched a rocket into orbit. This has terrified South Korea which shares a hostile border with its northern neighbour and Japan which is also in close proximity. Both nations are aware that North Korea has nuclear weapons and with this successful satellite launch, may have a means of delivery.

Under UN sanctions North Korea is banned from launching rockets, immediately Japan called on the Security Council to hold meetings over the event. Morocco, which holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council, announced that that there would be closed door discussions today. The US was swift in its condemnation of the launch, the White House made the following statement this morning: “The international community must work in a concerted fashion to send North Korea a clear message that its violations of UN Security Council resolutions have consequences.” We won’t know for a while what those consequences will be yet. It will be important to watch what China does in this situation, China is North Korea’s closest ally, and although it warned North Korea strongly against launching the rocket, its response has been noticeably tamer than those of the other Security Council members. China will likely be angry at North Korea for following this path; this launch will likely cause North Korea, Japan and the US to increase military cooperation in the area which could weaken China’s position. Getting a resolution past China, which has a veto, could still prove difficult.

This is all happening in the context of starving North Koreans who have been brainwashed to believe that the North Korean state, and in particular its leaders, are saints. The rare glimpse we get of North Korea from the outside world is truly shocking, people praise their leaders for their guidance but unbeknownst to them their leaders don’t care about them. With the knowledge of widespread brainwashing, the type Hitler tried in Germany; it’s hard to see a revolution occurring in North Korea for a long, long time. With that in mind the West, and in particular South Korea and Japan, must prepare for a world in which North Korea can wipe out whole cities in its neighbouring countries. Would the US placing nuclear weapons in South Korea or Japan be out of the question? North Korea may be less likely to use a nuclear weapon frivolously if it thinks Japan or South Korea could launch an immediate counter strike. Could we see a revival of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) Doctrine in North East Asia? It is early days yet, but the craziness of the North Korean regime should not be underestimated, the West’s reaction needs to be swift. Very swift.