The Rise of ISIS

The Syrian Civil War has continued throughout 2014, devastating the country and spilling over into neighbouring Iraq.

The devastation and destruction of Syria by years of Civil War left the country unable to defend itself from attack by a “new” fundamentalist and Islamist terrorist group. The group is referred to by several different titles; ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), IS (Islamic State) and the Caliphate. I will be referring to it as ISIS due to the fact that currently it controls vast swathes of Iraq and Syria. Although ISIS actually formed in 1999, it was relatively unknown in the West until 2014. The group had joined Al Qaeda in 2004, but it was disavowed by Al Qaeda in February 2014 after a long power struggle between the two groups. Throughout the Syrian Civil War ISIS had been seizing parts of Syria and imposing Sharia law on the people it controlled. However in the chaos of the Syrian Civil War, its actions went largely un-noted by the Western media. That was until June when ISIS invaded neighbouring Iraq.

On the 5^th of June ISIS forces stormed over the Syria-Iraq border, intent on taking all of Iraq. By the middle of the month they had taken vast swathes of north-western Iraq with relative ease, including Iraq’s second city, Mosul.  It was rather amazing (in a horrible way) to watch as ISIS took so much territory from Iraq without much fighting. This was despite the fact that the Iraqi army hugely outnumbered the ISIS fighters. When ISIS marched on Mosul, they had less than 1,000 men whilst the Iraqi army had an impressive 60,000! The Iraqi army basically ran away so fast that they left behind expensive military equipment, including tanks and anti-aircraft weapons. I am sure ISIS was very glad of getting hold of those weapons. The reason why this happened is because of the sectarian divisions of Iraq. The northern part of Iraq follows Sunni Islam, whilst the southern part is Shia Islam. To complicate matters even more there are the Kurds in north-eastern Iraq. Although they are mostly Sunnis, their different ethnicity makes them a separate group within Iraq. Since Nouri Al-Maliki came to power in 2006 he has tried to purge Sunnis from the government and the army. As a result, when ISIS invaded northern Iraq the army defending the Sunni territory was mostly Shia. Rather than risk their lives defending Sunni territory, the Shia soldiers simply fled. The rapid advance of ISIS was somewhat halted when the group began attacking more mixed areas, as the Shia dominated army began to actually defend the territory.

Despite ISIS’s success in taking control of much of northern Iraq, they were unable to take control of Kurdistan. The military of Iraqi Kurdistan, the Peshmerga, managed to hold their territory and even take some back from ISIS. Since June Iraqi Kurdistan has been de facto independent.

On the 29^th of June ISIS declared that it was now a worldwide Caliphate and that the group’s leader, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was its first Caliph. By doing this they are claiming complete authority over all Muslims throughout the world.

Control of Iraq and Syria at the end of 2014
Red: Assad regime
Purple-red: Iraqi government
Green: Syrian rebels
Grey: ISIS
Yellows: Syrian and Iraqi Kurds
Source: wikipedia.org

The barbarity of ISIS has been revealed over the past six months. They have brutally murdered anyone who will not convert to their extremist version of Sunni Islam. At one point they declared that the Yazidis, an ethnic and religious minority in northern Iraq, were “devil worshippers” and that they would be killed. After the Kurdish Peshmerga left the mostly Yazidi city of Sinjar, many Yazidis fled with them to Kurdistan. Unfortunately the journey to Peshmerga protected Kurdistan was several days walk away and many who would not make it fled up Mount Sinjar. As ISIS forces moved to surround the mountain there were fears of a genocide of the Yazidis who were now trapped. Thankfully a combination of strategic bombing of ISIS forces, air-dropped aid packages and the help of Peshmerga forces ensured that most Yazidis managed to escape.

With the realisation that ISIS poses a real threat to both regional and international security, 28 countries have intervened in some capacity to help combat ISIS’s rise.

As things stand going into 2015, ISIS’s advance has been halted, but now the effort to push back against the organisation has to step up. As bad as Iraq has been in recent years, ISIS control would be far worse. My hope for 2015 is that ISIS gets pushed back and that countries begin to recognise Kurdistan as an independent nation.

Red: Iraq and Syria
Dark Orange: Military intervention in Iraq and Syria
Light orange: Military intervention in Iraq only
Yellow: Military intervention in Syria only
Dark Blue: Humanitarian aid
Light Blue: Military aid (no intervention)

What the World Holds in 2014 - A Prediction

So that’s my review of 2013 over, obviously there were numerous stories that I missed. The horsemeat scandal that gripped Europe, elections in Japan and Germany, and the birth of Prince George. The biggest news story that I missed was documenting the progress within Iran. I was planning on writing more reviews, but revision for exams has cute into the amount of time I can afford to spend blogging. Perhaps when I finish exams I’ll do a few more reviews of 2013.

The point of this post is to predict what will happen to the world in 2014. The number in red is the amount of predictions I’ve made in the paragraph.

Pro-gay rights athletes will be arrested in Sochi during the Winter Olympics. Of the 100s of athletes attending, it seems unlikely that nobody will protest. Expect tensions to rise between the West and Russia. [1]

The European elections will be a mixed bag as the likes of France jump to the rights whilst Britain and several other countries jump to the left. I predict that Nick Griffin will lose his seat and Labour will have the largest MEP delegation from Britain. In France Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP will have the most MEPs, followed by Marine Le Pen’s National Front. This will leave President François Hollande’s Socialist Party in third place.  [5]

Scotland will vote to remain in the union, although the vote will be closer than most unionists would like [1]

Scotland will also legalise same-sex marriage, as will Luxembourg and the Faroe Islands. Michigan and Virginia, by court ruling, will legalise same-sex marriage through the courts, whilst Ohio and Oregon will legalise it through ballot initiatives. The Supreme Court will reject Utah’s appeal, keeping same-sex marriage legal in that state. [8]

The November elections in the US will be mixed. Republicans will make a net gain in the Senate but will fall short of enough to take control. Little will change in the House of Representatives. Democrats will make a net gain in the governorship. [4] I’ll do a more in depth post about this later this month or in early February.

The bloodshed in Syria will continue, and by the end of 2014 nothing much will have changed unfortunately. There will be no Western military intervention in Syrian affairs. [2]

Obamacare will become more popular as its positive effects are felt. By the end of the year it will have a positive approval rating [1]

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts will continue to gain popularity within the Democratic Party. She will eat away at Hilary Clinton’s lead in 2016 polls. New York City Mayor, Bill deBlasio, will gain national attention, also resulting in him being touted for a 2016 Presidential run. [2]

If I were to guess one person who is likely to die in 2014, I would chose President George H.W. Bush. We already know that he is in poor health and turns 90 this June. People who could also die this year include the Duke of Edinburgh, after all he turns 93 this June and had a number of health scares in 2013. Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej has had numerous health scares over the past decade and hence is also on the list of likely deaths. He turns 87 in June (I swear I have nothing against people born in June). Aging stars Bruce Forsyth (turns 86 later this month) and Betty White (turns 92 next month) could also die in 2014 without much surprise.

Excluding deaths, I have made a total of 23 predictions for 2014. I guess we will have to wait until 2015 to see how accurate they were!

The Bloodshed in Syria Continues

The Civil War in Syria has been raging for almost three years and doesn’t look like it is ending anytime soon. So far an estimated 165,000 people have been killed in the bloodshed that has created 3,000,000 refugees.

Fighting continues across the country between the rebels and the government for control of land. As the horrors of the war become more and more vivid, and especially after President Bashar Al-Assad used chemical weapons, the West began to prepare for war. Going to war because of suspected chemical weapons? For many in the West this brought back horrible memories of the Iraq War, an invasion that was built on the lie that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). In September a poll showed 72% of Europeans and 62% of Americans opposed military intervention. Nonetheless, the march to war has begun and surely nothing could stop it!

Wrong! It turned out that war was not inevitable! In Britain war was surprisingly stopped by Parliament of all places. What was meant to be a largely symbolic vote in favour of intervention if Syria turned out did use chemical weapons, turned into one of the biggest news stories of the year. The vote failed 285-272, the first time Parliament had voted against any sort of Act of War in centuries. This did major damage to Britain’s prestige and to the war movement. Despite this setback, America and France continued to gear up for war. What really rocked the military, and averted Western intervention, was thanks to American Secretary of State John Kerry. It was also a complete accident on Kerry’s behalf.

In a news conference, Kerry was asked by Margaret Brennan of CBS News if there was anything the Syrian government could do to prevent an American bombing. Kerry said that the only way for Syria to prevent intervention would be for it to give up its chemical weapons immediately. Kerry immediately derided it as impossible and moved on to the next question. Well that off-hand comment ended up being the most important in all of 2013 (well at least the most important one that’s publically known). Almost as soon as that clip was aired around the world, the Syrians and Russians pounced on it.

Seeing it as the only opportunity to prevent a Western intervention, Syria promised that it would allow United Nations weapons inspectors into the country. Syria would then hand over all chemical weapons to be safely destroyed! By September an agreement was reached that would result in the elimination of all Syria’s chemical weapons by mid-2014. In October the UN declared that all of Syria’s facilities that could create chemical weapons had been destroyed.

Despite the success with chemical weapons, Syria is far from resolved. Removing chemical weapons does nothing to reduce the death and destruction occurring in the Middle Eastern country. Unfortunately there seems to be very little chance of the Civil War easing up at all this year. I am making the rather horribly prediction that the Syrian war will continue as bloody as ever. By the end of the year at least 200,000 people will be dead.

No Intervention?

It all seemed set, the US was going to bomb Syria with French help and without the British. Although Obama decided to ask Congress, he refused to say whether or not he would bomb Syria if Congress said no.  Then Secretary of State, John Kerry, made some off the cuff remarks whilst in London that changed everything. In response to a reporter's question Kerry said that the only way Syria could prevent the bombings would be to hand over all its chemical weapons.

Now all of a sudden 'peace' seems to be an option. The Russians and Assad jumped at the opportunity to prevent the strikes. If Assad does hand all his chemical weapons to the international community then this saga will have been a success (in a way). It was the credible threat of force that made Assad agree to this and could save Obama a lot of face. Intervention in Syria is unpopular and Obama's reputation was on the line. Now he may have removed chemical weapons from Syria without a single bomb dropped.

Yet we have to be careful, as the old Russian proverb says; trust, but verify. As we do not know how many chemical weapons Assad has, it will be difficult to confirm that he has gotten rid of all of his them. We must not get overexcited either, the situation in Syria is terrible at the moment; after all it is a Civil War. It won't be easy getting UN inspectors into Syria to remove the chemical weapons and even harder for them to prove that they have taken them all. Nonetheless this must be done to get rid of some of these horrifying weapons.

Don't get me wrong, I still favour intervention. But my will to intervene has very little to do with chemical weapons. I've been advocating for a no fly zone for a while now to even the fight between rebels and the Assad regime. Removing chemical weapons will not do this but it still a good move and I applaud it.

Britain Won't Intervene

Syria has dominated the headlines over the past few days and for good reason. It was announced that the UN inspectors would be finished and out of Syria by Saturday, the BBC revealed a new regime-committed atrocity, and France and America will likely intervene in Syria. But the biggest news came out of the UK.

Last night the House of Commons rejected David Cameron's proposal that we should have some form of limited intervention in Syria. This was despite Cameron conceding that intervention would have to follow the UN inspectors' report, that there would be a second vote in the House of Commons and we should at least try to go through the UN. The pro-intervention side said that we must show Assad that we are serious and that intervention would be perfectly legal from a humanitarian standpoint. Unfortunately Labour won the vote, 285 against intervention, 272 in favour. This means that Britain will not be able to intervene in Syria and it sends the message to Assad that Britain will not act against him if he uses chemical weapons again.

As this vote was taking place last night, the BBC was releasing evidence of a new atrocity in Syria. A Syrian air-force jet dropped, what is believed to be, some form of incendiary bomb on a school playground. The BBC reported that the injuries from nearby victims was consistent with that of napalm. So far, ten have died.

Meanwhile the US has revealed that it is certain that Assad used chemical weapons earlier this month. The report claimed that the US knows exactly when the attack took place and where the chemicals were launched from. The report claims that 1,429 people were killed and 426 were children. So the US and France are intervening, whilst Britain sits on the sidelines and Russia raises tensions by sending a warship to the eastern Mediterranean.

Watch this space folks.

Intervention is Coming

It looks like the world may finally take action in Syria, despite the conflict starting almost 900 days ago. The rhetoric has began to get really angry across the West as the evidence for a chemical attack became more and more concrete. On the 25th Medecins San Frontieres announced that they had treated around 3,600 people that showed signs of 'neurotoxic symptoms', later 355 died.

The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, said in a press conference that the attack was "a moral obscenity that should shock the world." He also added; "make no mistake, President Obama believes there must be accountability for those who would use the world's most heinous weapons against the world's most vulnerable people." According to current reports, the US military reaction will occur in the next few days, before Congress returns from holiday.

In Britain the reaction has been even stronger with David Cameron returning early from his holiday and recalling Parliament on Thursday. Foreign Secretary, William Hague, said in an interview that Britain would be prepared to intervene in Syria without UN authorisation - by far the strongest language so far.

In Russia and Syria, the opinion is very different. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, called an unauthorised intervention "a very grave violation of international law." The Russians have also claimed that there never even was a chemical attack - a ridiculous claim considering the overwhelming evidence.

So we have finally arrived at the point where Western military action is not only a possibility, but likely. France and Britain seem very willing to intervene in some form without a UN resolution. The USA is certainly a lot more timid about intervening but the chemical attacks appear to have persuaded America to act. We don't know quite how the West will react, it will almost certainly be a coordinated response, most likely through NATO. Stay tuned folks, the next few days will be very important. 

Chemical Weapons Must Force West to Act

The crisis in Syria has (somehow) gotten even worse with more reports that the Assad regime has allegedly used chemical weapons. The accusations come as UN inspectors arrive in Syria to inspect its chemical weapons stockpile. The chemical weapon in question? Sarin gas, the same chemical that Saddam Hussein used against the Kurds in 1988. At the moment the reports are not verified, but there has been footage showing piles of dead bodies with no wounds, indicating some form of chemical weapons being deployed. The problem for the West is that verifying the use of sarin gas is extremely difficult, in 1988 it took four years to confirm its use and the compounds break-up rapidly.

I have been writing about the Syrian crisis for over a year and a half now and I feel that most posts boil down to the same storyline: Assad does something terrible, the West condemns it, Russia ignores it, Assad denies it and nothing changes. This post largely seems similar but there is a difference; the West (and Obama in particular) could have made the entire situation worse.

Earlier this year Western intelligence agencies confirmed that they had a "high degree of confidence" that Assad had used chemical weapons. This was met by the usual condemnation by the West and denial by Syria and Russia. The big question at the time was; what would the West do? Obama had called the use of chemical weapons a red line. So when Assad, according to the intelligence community, crossed the line, what did Obama do? Well he gave us a few good speeches and possibly did some minor things behind the scenes, but nothing overt. Obama's inaction turned out to be very important as then Assad knew that he could do anything he wanted, with little fear of Western retaliation. It emboldened him to use chemical weapons, which it looks like he just has.

By now we must realise that going through the UN is useless. Russia has a veto on the United Nations Security Council and US-Russia relations are at a low point over Snowden and Syria. The chances of a deal are low. The Western powers, in particular Britain, France and the US, must act without the UN. We must create a no-fly-zone to start with. We can use Turkey and Israel as our allies to help enforce it. Britain already has a large presence in the area due to massive bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia on Cyprus and America has massive bases in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. This could be started very quickly, and every day we wait, more people die.

Syria Talks Stall at G8

It's looking increasingly unlikely that the world is ever going to agree on what to do about Syria. In a joint press conference with Obama, Russian president Putin warned that Europe will suffer if they arm the rebels. There was one agreement though, both men agreed that chemical weapons should not be used. Which really isn't that big a leap, and as shown recently, Russia will simply reject any Western intelligence indicating the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime.

This will have disappointed Cameron and Hollande who have been pressing the international community, particularly Russia and China, to do something constructive in Syria. Earlier today Cameron said the following:

"What we do need to do is bring about this peace conference and this transition so that the people in Syria can have a government that represents them rather than a government that's trying to butcher them."

There is a lot to worry about with intervention in Syria, frequently things are made worse by intervention. If we arm the rebels we risk what happened in Afghanistan, when American armed the Taliban to fight the Soviets, repeating itself in Syria. Boris Johnson has warned against arming "Syria's maniacs and fanatics". Personally I'm also wary of arming the rebels, what I favour is implementing a no-fly-zone. That way we help the rebels, but we don't give them anything that they could later turn on us.

I do fear what will happen in Syria regardless of what we do, 93,000 people have died since the uprising began. How many more must die before this brutal civil war will end? 

The Next Failed State?

It seems that Syria may become the world’s latest addition to its failed states list. The violence that has been raging for two years has torn the country apart, the UN estimates over 70,000 Syrians have been killed, 1.2 million internally displaced and around 500,000 have fled to neighbouring countries. Unfortunately for the Syrian people, the end is nowhere in sight. The rebels have grabbed control over vast proportions of the north and east of the country, whilst the government still controls most of the major cities as well as the southern and coastal areas. Whereas the Assad loyalists have aircrafts and tanks, the rebels mostly have AK-47s and other small weapons. The international community has been totally inept in dealing with Syria, the UN Security Council won’t ever be able to act as Russia (which can veto any resolution) remains an ally of Syria. America and Britain both back the rebels over Assad but remember vividly the spectacular failure of the Iraq War and subsequent violence. Russia and Iran still back the Assad regime, providing him with arms and money which render Western sanctions largely ineffective.

The West must change its position on Syria, our current approach is simply not working, to many Syrians have died already. A good start would be to create a no fly zone over Syria and enforcing it, this would help the rebels deep in rebel held territory as the regime would find it harder to attack them. It would also give Syrians fleeing Assad’s henchmen a safe haven and it would give the rebels a chance to gain strength. Limited arming of the rebels should be carried out, strictly to non-Islamist/Salafist groups, this would give the rebels a better chance of winning against tanks and other heavy machinery. Over the past decade the West has tried to stamp out terrorism wherever it finds it, if Syria were to fall into pure and unadulterated chaos, then we would have another area of the world perfect for breeding terrorists.

Tomorrow a group of countries called the “Friends of Syria” will meet in Rome along with leaders of the Syrian opposition. The group contains over 100 countries, including America, France and Britain and aims to help the rebels. Previous meetings don’t seem to have had much effect on Syria, let’s hope this meeting goes better.

Whilst the world watches and discusses action in Syria, many more will die. We must act soon, to save lives.

Review 2012

Well what a year we’ve had! There has been the most expensive Presidential Election of any country ever, Greece has gone from bad to worse, the Arab Spring continues in Syria and here in Britain we entered into a double dip recession. Although I don’t feel that 2012 was the year of change that 2011 was, it will still go down as important in the history books. The shooting of a 15 year old girl by the Pakistani Taliban sparked outrage in the country. The attack could help to stop people joining the terrorist organisation! The Palestinian-Israeli conflict took a turn for the worse after Israel killed one of Hamas’ leaders and Israel was furious when Palestine had its status upgraded in the UN.

The year saw a change of leadership in China and France and Greece choose a new government for its sinking economy. It was confirmed that in 2013 the EU will get a new member, Croatia, whilst the Eurozone crisis continued to rattle on.  

The year ahead of us will be the sixth since the economic crisis began and still there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Predictions are that the Eurozone economy has shrunk by a small amount in the past year, the same is true for Britain. What stopped the crisis that began in 2007 being worse than the 1929 crash was the economies of the developing nations, particularly Brazil, China and India. Unfortunately their economies are beginning to slow down, China has stopped producing double digit growth for the first time in a decade and India and Brazil are below 5%. Although European countries would kill for growth figures like those, the world economy depends on them being very high. The US has just fallen off the fiscal cliff (although a deal should be one the way) and Europe’s economy is expected to shrink again this year, if the developing nations’ economies do start to slow this could have cataclysmic knock on effects.

We are living in a time of change, what happens over the next year could prove very important in the long run.  

Syrian Civil War

Days since it began: 658

Dead: 42,000+

It has been almost two years since anti-regime protests began peacefully. Unfortunately Syria has subsequently descended into Civil War and change is a long way off. Despite this there is some hope for the Syrian people, when protests began they had no arms or real organisation, the majority of the army remained loyal to Assad and the regime knew that it could always find an ally in Russia. Things are very different now, the rebels have taken control of vast swathes of the country, particularly in the north and the east. They now have an organisation to  co-ordinate the rebellion and is recognised by 19 countries as the legitimate government of Syria, Russia’s support for Assad is also weakening. Now Syria’s only real ally is Iran, which is currently one of the most isolated countries due to UN sanctions.

Despite the advances for the Free Syrian Army there have been terrible atrocities committed by Assad. In May 108 people were killed by Shabiha militia loyal to the government near the town of Houla. Later in June at least 78 people were killed by government forces in Hama, in July between 38 and 220 people were killed in Tremseh and in August government forces attacked the Darayya suburb of Damascus and killed over 600 people! In all these massacres it was mostly innocent civilians killed , in the Houla massacre almost half killed were children. To mark matters worse NATO confirmed that just last month the Syrian government began using Scud missiles. Sucds are ballistic missiles developed by the Soviets during the Cold War, and now Assas is using them on his fellow Syrians. Some fear it is only a matter of time until he uses chemical or biological weapons.

Yet despite all these atrocities associated with the Assad regime, little can be done within the UN. Russia continues to exercise its veto when it comes to the Syrian question. Although its support is weakening, it still exists and as long as it does the international community will be powerless. The Western and Arab powers must try and persuade Russia to stop blockading progress and help the Syrian people.

Syria Crisis: Day 716

In the 716 days that have succeeded the 15^th of March 2011 roughly 40,000 Syrian civilians have been killed in the Syrian Civil War that threatens Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. Despite set-backs in the early parts of the War, more recently it would seem that in recent months the Syrian opposition has been slowly gaining ground and possibly the upper hand. On the international stage the Syrian opposition is continuously gaining ground over the Assad regime, with the formation of the ‘National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces’, the revolution gained on a key diplomatic front. Since then 11 countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Turkey, UK and Italy) have recognised the National Coalition as the ‘sole legitimate representative of Syria’, most of the rest of Europe and the United States have given the NC at least some recognition.

Inside Syria things are looking darker for the regime; rebel forces have taken a number of military bases, including an airport, in the eastern province of Deir Ez-Zor. The rebels have also made some significant advances in Syria’s second city of Aleppo, capturing at least five army bases in the past few weeks. Capturing these bases not only provides the rebels with good morale, but with crucial tanks, heavy weapons and anti-aircraft missiles. High profile defections seem to happen every couple of weeks, this helps to weaken Assad politically.

Yet it’s not all over for the Assad regime, international allies in the form of Iran and Russia are proving vital for the regime. There have been reports that Russia has been supplying Assad with tonnes of banknotes to prevent the economic collapse of the Syrian government. Russian made weapons have also allowed the regime to gain a significant advantage over the rebels in technology.

Despite this, the odds are stacked against Assad, what worries many people are the possibility of the use of chemical weapons. The international community does know that the Assad regime has many chemical weapons; if Assad chose to use them they would devastate Syria. Releasing just one chemical weapon in a densely populated city such as Aleppo would kill thousands of civilians in one fell swoop. Although the Assad regime has promised never to use them, we know he is not a trustworthy person.

If Assad did choose to use chemical weapons, it would be the end for his regime. There is no way Russia could justify supporting his regime if he used this form of attack. It would spark such an outrage in western countries that military intervention could become a possibility, President Obama and David Cameron have both spoken about how the use of chemical weapons would be a red line. If Assad chooses to use chemical weapons, his end would be swift 

Syria, the Never-ending Problem

There has been one major area of policy that Romney has largely ignored in the current presidential election and that is foreign policy. Anytime he does attempt to draw a position, it turns into a major gaffe; during his overseas trip in July he managed to insult the British, Arabs and Polish. More recently he politicised the death of US ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, before he even knew the facts and he failed to mention the war in Afghanistan during his acceptance speech at the RNC last month. Now Romney is attempting to weigh in on the Syrian crisis as the battle is getting increasingly bloody. It is also important to note that Romney views Syria as a way to get at Iran, Syria is one of Iran's closest allies; he believes depriving Iran of another ally would be extremely bad for President Ahmadinejad. In extracts from a speech he will make later today Romney says:

“Iran is sending arms to Assad because they know his downfall would be a strategic defeat for them. We should be working no less vigorously with our international partners to support the many Syrians who would deliver that defeat to Iran – rather than sitting on the sidelines.”

Romney believes that America should arm the rebels, not just with small arms, but with heavy weapons that could take out tanks and helicopters. Do you remember when America armed rebels in Afghanistan? Do you also remember when some of those rebels used their American training to carry out 9/11? This is an extremely risky strategy, although I do believe that the vast majority of the Syrian rebels are genuinely trying to overthrow a dictatorial regime, islamists from across the Arab world are seeing Syria as a possible training site for a future generation of jihadists.

There are also fears that the Syrian conflict could spill over into some of its more unstable neighbours; Iraq and Lebanon and maybe destabilise Jordan as well. The chances of a Turkish invasion of Syria are looking increasingly likely; Syria has already shot down Turkish fighter jets and launched missiles into Turkish villages killing hundreds. Syria has abandoned the Kurdish area of its country; Turkey fears that in doing so it will become a training ground for Kurdish rebels who will attack Turkey. Just a few days ago the Turkish parliament voted to allow moving Turkish forces into Syria if it was provoked, sending a clear message to Damascus that it must stop attacking Turks.

With the international community totally paralysed thanks to the actions of Russia and China it is difficult to see what the West should do next. Maybe Mitt Romney’s idea is the right thing to do, although history suggests that we may get more than we wish for. 

Syrian Opposition Accused of War Crimes

In an interesting change of events, the Syrian opposition is accused of committing war crimes! Up until now it was mostly only the government that the likes of Human Rights Watch accused of committing horrifying practises. Human Rights Watch has criticised the opposition for performing summary executions and the torture of prisoners and of being infiltrated by extremist Islamists. 

This is not unexpected, there has never been and never will be, a war in which both sides are completely innocent. It is true that most of the attention has been on the regime, which has killed thousands of innocent civilians and has used all resources available to try and crush the revolution. What I believe is most dangerous is the presence of Islamists, they are hoping to take advantage over an unstable Syria. With government attention away from them, it is easier for them to plot against the West and Israel. Unfortunately it could turn worse, when Assad is removed from power Syria will have a problem, central government will be weak and the country will basically be run by militiamen. If a strong, secular, civilian government is installed, then there will be real hope for peace in the Middle East. On the other hand if the country collapses into sectarian warfare, this will just add to the mess that is the current Arab World. 

When the regime collapses the West must be prepared to invest in Syria, otherwise democracy has no hope. Democracy is expensive, and rebuilding Syria will be a difficult task. The infrastructure has basically been destroyed by the Civil War and the country cannot recover unless we help them.

More Bad News for Assad

This week has been a bad one for the Assad regime in Syria, footage released on Monday by rebel fighters shows them taking down a Syrian jet fighter. This is a very significant moment, being able to take out a jet means that the rebels have the gun power to do so; previously all they had were a few Kalashnikovs. Whether these weapons were stolen from the regime or supplied by Gulf nations, we do not know, but it still represents (another) significant turning point for the civil war in Syria. The symbolism of this jet’s destruction will hopefully encourage more Syrians to abandon the regime in favour of the revolution. But there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Assad still controls the sky, this is only one jet in the entire military and can easily be replaced.

The ex-PM, Riad Hijab, has spoken publically for the first time since his defection, in a speech he said that the Syrian regime was “near collapse” and encouraged other leaders to defect to the rebels and to tip the scales.

No doubt there will be more high profile defections to come; the ones in the regime with less personal loyalty to the regime will begin to recognise that Assad will soon be gone. If they wish to have power in a new Syria, and save their lives, they will have no choice but to defect. This is what happened in both Libya and Egypt, when the tyrants’ days were numbered people saved their own lives by joining the rebels. Likely I will be writing about Syria again before the week is out…

Massive Boost to Syrian Rebels

The Syrian opposition received a major boost yesterday with the announcement that the British government would provide £5 million in non-lethal equipment. This is great news for democracy in Syria and bad news for the Assad regime, it is also good news for us. By giving this aid to Syrian rebels we are establishing contacts in the new Syria. Everybody knows that Assad’s days are numbered and that his regime will not last, it’s just a matter of how long he will last. We know that by helping the rebels now, they will look more kindly to the Britain when democracy finally comes to Syria’s beleaguered citizens.

So what else could we do to help? Arming the rebels is out of the question because the weapons could fall into the hands of militant Islamists. Any other avenue requires UN support, the problem here of course is the opposition of China, but more important is Russia.  This rules out any sort of direct military action from outside forces, there will not be a no fly zone in Syria and there will certainly be no “boots on the ground”. The best thing that Britain and the rest of the West can do is to try and persuade Russia to change its position, if we can convince them that regime change is inevitable then it could be a game changer. When Assad is finally kicked from power the Syrian people will not be impressed that Russia was protecting their oppressor on the international stage. We must convince Russia that to have a voice in a new Syria, they will need to change support. This isn’t impossible.

The Noose Tightens

Assad and his cronies have suffered a massive humiliation, the defection of Prime Minister Riad Hijab is the highest profile defection yet. Yesterday it was revealed that the PM had defected and fled to Jordan with his family, in a statement he called the Syrian government a “terrorist regime” and says he has joined the ranks of the revolution. This is a huge blow to the regime, considering the PM has only been in office for two months and removes the regime’s most important Sunni member. Many people will begin to wonder which minister will be the next defect as Hijab is unlikely to be the last.

On top on the refection, the headquarters of the state television and radio station were bombed yesterday. Although nobody is reported to have been killed, this is a sign that the rebels are trying to target Assad’s propaganda machine that is still trying to brainwash the Syrian people. We all know that Assad has lost control of most of the eastern portions of Syria, as well as many districts of Homs and Aleppo.

With the rebels basically in control of whole swathes of the country and achieving high profile defections every week I am finally seeing a comparison to Libya. Right from the start I always believed that we could not treat Libya and Syria as the same. Syria has always been a completely different situation. Things are completely different now in Syria, even to what it was like just a matter of weeks ago. Although we cannot treat them as exactly the same, I believe that the situation in Syria is such that we can look to what happened in Libya to guide us in Syria. The major obstacle to this is the UN Security Council, Russia and China decided not to block Western action in Libya, but they are fighting tooth and nail to make sure no Western action is taken in Syria.

Although I disagreed with military aid in the past, I now believe that the new situation is such that we should provide some limited resources. I would still be wary of providing weapons, due to the risk of them falling into the hands of jihadists, instead we could provide intelligence as well as communication technology as well as vehicles for transportation and food to help sustain the rebels.

We must act now if we wish to have favour in a new Syria.

Annan Quits and the UN Condemns Itself

The head of the UN special envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, has announced that he will now be renewing his position when it expires at the end of August.

Kofi Annan speaking at the press conference

Speaking in a press conference he accused he international community of a lack of action. Annan has refused to place blame on either side of the conflict, he says that both sides are to blame for the failure of his peace plan. Although he did add that the problems in Syria were further " compounded by the disunity of the international community". Annan specifically called out the UN Security Council for its lack of action, he added "when the Syrian people desperately need action, there continues to be figure pointing and name calling in the Security Council."

For me this marks the end of the chances of a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Syria. Although I was always very sceptical of a diplomatic and peaceful solution, this largely marks the end if the attempts. Although someone probably will take over from Annan, the exit of a seasoned negotiator shows the hopelessness of the situation. 


Following Mr Annan's announcement, on Friday the UN General Assembly voted to condemn its own security council for the lack of action to the crisis in Syria. It did so by an overwhelming majority, 133 votes to 12, with 31 abstentions. 

There is no real hope for peace in Syria. Assad knows that he would have to go in a new Syria, he has nothing to gain and everything to lose. On the other hand the rebels had nothing in the old Syria, so they have nothing to lose but everything to gain. Both sides know this, and so the fighting continues. 

The Battle for Syria is Turning

As the civil war in Syria grows ever bloodier, the end would appear in sight.

Earlier this week a bomb blasted through the national security headquarters in Damascus. The explosion killed the defence minister and a former military chief. Assad's close friend and brother-in-law, Adsef Shawkat was also killed by rebels. He was a powerful figure in the regime who will be dearly missed. For the rebels and the West his death was of huge benefit. Although their positions were immediately filled, the personal loyalty and close-knit feel of the upper echelons is the Syrian regime make them irreplaceable.

Their deaths also mark a major turning point for the rebels. They are finally taking out high profile members of Assad's government, army and family. Who will be the next to be killed? Considering the location of the bomb, it indicates infiltration into the beating heart of government. We already know that there have been generals and other high-profile army personnel defecting, this bomb would suggest that people working for the regime are turned as well. The question is: How far does the infiltration go?

The problem with high profile defections and assassinations is that Assad may get more and more desperate. Could he flatten whole towns and disloyal districts? The west and north west are rapidly becoming no-go areas of Syria for the armed forces. Could Assad start using chemical or biological weapons? Although this is an option, it is unlikely to be used as doing so could anger the West into action (UN sanctioned or not) and lose Syria her last major ally, Russia.

The noose is tightening around the regime's neck, it is only a matter of time now until Assad goes, the question is how long? The fear is, the Battle for Syria could grow bloodier.

Massacre in Tremseh, Syria

Yesterday say the worst massacre of the Syrian Troubles. The village of Tremseh was attacked by government troops, first by helicopters and other heavy weapons. Afterwards the militia went in and massacred up to 250 people, making it the worst massacre of the whole Syrian crisis, more than double the amount that died in Houla.

The government has claimed that they did not target civilians and that all those who died were rebel fighters. And although it is true that a sizeable proportion of the dead appear to be men of fighting age, unverified footage shows the corpse of a baby. Unless Syrian society works different to my own, babies don’t tend to be rebel fighters. If you needed any more proof that that the Assad regime is full of liars, well I have more information to convince you. Today state controlled television in Syria originally claimed that “armed gangs” had been responsible for the killing of innocent civilians in Tremseh. Later that evening they had changed their mind over what lie to tell; instead they decided that the massacre was committed by the government because it was completely legitimate.

You may realise that I am rather fed up with the Syrian fighting. I’m also fed up with the West’s non-action. I don’t give a damn what we have to do, we need to do something. Supply the rebels with arms, or get a UN peacekeeping mission. We cannot allow for thousands of innocent people to be killed whilst we play politics with Russia and China.