Homophobia Takes Centre Stage in Uganda

With all the positive stories of gay rights, it can sometimes be easy to forget just how rampant homophobia is across the globe. We need to be reminded that homophobia is alive and well. In Russia you have the propaganda law, several US states are considering pro-discrimination laws and, of course, there is Uganda.

The African country became infamous in 2009 when a bill appeared before the Ugandan Parliament that would make homosexuality a capital offence! Thankfully, due to a massive international outcry, the bill never passed and so never became law. Unfortunately another anti-gay bill was introduced last year that would make homosexuality punishable by life in prison. Despite another international outcry, the Parliament passed it and on Monday President Museveni signed the bill into law.

The West needs to take a concerted effort against Uganda and its disgusting law. Already Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands have cut or frozen aid that they give to Uganda. Canada, the US and UK are also considering cutting their aid. So long as the aid is redirected to another poor country, I fully support the measure. It may be too late to influence Uganda, but a strong action taken by the West would deter other countries from considering similar legislation.

“We must take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented. Sometimes we must interfere. When human lives are endangered, when human dignity is in jeopardy, national borders and sensitivities become irrelevant. Wherever men and women are persecuted because of their race, religion, or political views, that place must - at that moment - become the centre of the universe.”

-          Elie Wiesel

The Polarisation of Gay Rights

Everything was going just great for the gay rights movement. In 2013 part of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) was struck down, as well as that eight additional states legalised same-sex marriage. The Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) passed the Senate for the first time with an incredible 64 votes in favour and 32 against. ENDA would ban discrimination against gay people in states where discrimination is not explicitly banned.

2014 looked to be another great year for gay rights. Courts in Utah, Oklahoma, Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia all made pro-gay rulings. Lawsuits to expand gay rights have been filed, or are pending, in a further 20 states. Gay marriage looks likely to be brought before the Supreme Court, perhaps 2014 could be the year every state has legal same-sex marriage.

Then several conservative states decided that the anti-gay rights side needed some good news. Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, South Dakota, Tennessee and Utah are considering passing laws that would make discrimination against gays protected by the law!

Kansas was the first to gain national notoriety for the homophobic legislation. The bill allowed for discrimination so long as the person had “deeply held religious beliefs”. The truly horrifying part was that it would allow for anyone to discriminate. Not just photographers who refused to take pictures of a gay wedding. If you were gay it would allow government employees to refuse you service, doctors could deny you treatment and policemen could refuse to investigate crimes committed against you. Disgusting. The bill passed the Kansas House 72-49 and was expected to pass the Republican controlled Senate. Then the bill suddenly died! So what caused the bill, so sure to pass, to lose support so quickly? It was the Kansas business community who we can thank for its death! Kansas businesses feared the negative effect on their livelihoods and so demanded that it never pass.

Unfortunately there is one state where a pro-discrimination bill actually managed to pass both chambers: Arizona. The bill is being sold as one that defends religious freedom, but the reality is that its sole intention is to encourage discrimination. Just like in Kansas, business leaders are opposed to it, which should influence Republican Governor Jan Brewer to veto it.

Early reports suggest that Arizona has already started to suffer from the bill (often referred to as SB 1062) passing the legislature. Businesses are reporting that companies are cancelling business trips and holidays in response to the law. George Takei, actor of Star Trek fame and now a formidable force for equality, has called for a boycott of Arizona. His husband, Brad Takei, is an Arizonan native and the couple visit Arizona annually. Not anymore. Read George’s opinion here. The Super Bowl is scheduled to be held in Arizona in 2015 and there have been calls that Arizona should lose it as a result of the law.

Bizarrely, three legislators who voted for the bill are now calling for Brewer to veto the legislation calling it "a mistake". Hopefully all these difference forces will persuade Brewer that discrimination has no place on the statute books of any state.

Even if the bills do manage to pass, it will not be long before the courts rule them as unconstitutional. After all, these courts are the same ones declaring same-sex marriage bans as unconstitutional.  

Horrific Violence in Ukraine

Violence has descended upon the streets of Ukraine once more, as clashes between police and protesters worsened. So far 26 people have been killed, 14 of them protesters and 12 police.

This is absolutely horrific, especially considering that just last week there were hopes of a deal. Protesters had agreed to leave some parliament buildings, in exchange the government would grant amnesty to the protesters. At the moment we don’t know whose fault it is for the violence, as both sides blame each other. Yet in the ensuing chaos it’s pretty clear that the government side has acted a lot worse. They have repeatedly broken promises they made and even set a building on fire, forcing people to jump out of buildings to escape the flames!

It was hoped that a truce agreed yesterday would give the politicians a chance to agree to something more long term. Unfortunately that truce has broken down thanks to the government. It didn't even last 24 hours! Today alone at least 17 protesters have been killed according to the BBC! This raises the total killed this week to 43, 31 of them protesters.

The only way out is for fresh elections, and if the government wins then I would be in favour of ending the Euromaidan protests. The current president, Viktor Yanukovych, won the highly dubious 2010 election with barely 3% more than his opponent. Some people would argue that as he won that election, that the protesters should simply wait until the next election in 2015, after all he was democratically elected! The problem with this argument is that Ukraine is not a stable democracy like Britain or America. This makes it more vulnerable to destruction. Four years may not appear like enough time to turn a democracy into a dictatorship, but remember: it only took Hitler two.

Thankfully the West has decided to act, America is preparing to impose sanctions and the EU is probably going to in the next few days. This has angered the Ukrainian and Russian governments who hope to crush the opposition. Russia’s foreign ministry blamed the West’s “conniving politics” for the protests. The great irony is: it was Russia’s ‘conniving politics’ that was the cause of the protests in the first place!

One of the many injured people
Source: BBC

North Korean Horrors

Out of sight, out of mind. This phrase comes to mind when I think of how the world treats North Korea. It is easy for us to ignore something if we don’t know exactly what’s going on, and all we do hear comes in form of rumours. That excuse for doing little can be no longer. The report leased on Monday by the UN is truly disgusting, and it spares no details.

The story of a six year old girl beaten to death for stealing a small amount of grain is one of the most horrific. A woman who fled to China, but was later deported back to North Korea, was forced to drown her baby immediately after birth as the father was Chinese. The North Korean regime is obsessed with racial purity. The North Koreans are so terrified that when a man dropped a machine in the factory he works at, he was grateful that he only had one finger chopped off.

All of these horrific cases, and more, are contained in the UN report.

The concentration camps which hold 100,000s of citizens are worryingly similar to the concentration camps of Nazi Germany. Forced abortions, beatings, rape, summary executions and starvation are commonplace in these monstrous camps. After the horrors of WWII we said never again. After Cambodia we said never again. After Rwanda we said never again. After Bosnia we said never again. Will we ignore North Korea and when it’s all over say never again?

The UN was also critical of China for sending fleeing North Koreans back to the country, despite full knowledge of the conditions. This is probably part of the reason why China has criticised the report as being “unreasonable”. Although Chinese officials seem to have acknowledged that North Korea is committing human rights abuses, they claim that the UN report is not the way to go about helping the situation. The Chinese are also aware of human rights abuses in their own country and fear setting a precedent of the UN acting on these issues.

Michael Kirby, the chairman of the inquiry that released the report sent an open letter to North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-Un. In the letter he requested that Kim present himself before the inquiry to explain himself. The letter also warned Kim that he would be held accountable under international law, suggesting that he might get tried by the International Criminal Court.

So what should the world do? Well I certainly agree with the idea of trying them at the ICC, even in abstentia. Other than that, it is a difficult issue. Economic sanctions are already pretty tight, so it is difficult to see how much tighter they could be. Military intervention is out of the question as the ensuing war would cost the lives of millions of people. The only other thing we could do is pressure China to do something. China is North Korea’s only remaining friend in the world and the only country with any influence over the Hermit Kingdom.

The issue of North Korea is a difficult one, but one which we cannot, in all good conscience, ignore. 

A rare picture of a North Korean Concentration Camp
source: Policymic

Scottish Nationalism Takes A Blow

The Scottish independence referendum is still seven months away but expect it to grab headlines constantly as the future integrity of the United Kingdom is debated.

Earlier this week Chancellor George Osborne, Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander announced that they would not allow Scotland to use the pound if Scotland voted for independence. Many in Scotland fear that not having the pound would damage Scotland’s economy. It is also a huge embarrassment for SNP leader Alex Salmond who claimed that Scotland would continue to use the pound after independence.

Salmond hoped to characterise the move as a political one, entirely meant to damage the nationalist campaign. Unfortunately for Salmond the apolitical Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, Sir Nicholas Macpherson, also came out and said that it would be unwise for the UK to join a currency union with Scotland.

So how is the nationalist campaign going? Poorly, to say the least. The average of five polls of 2014 on the issue show the support for independence at 33%, opposition at 49% and don’t know at 18%. This is actually worse for nationalists than when the campaign started!

With all that in mind, I stand by my prediction that Scotland will remain in the union.

2014 Senate Elections Predictions - Update

As promised I have written up a prediction for how the 2014 Senate elections will go.

Kentucky:

Without a doubt Kentucky will be this year’s most interesting Senate race. Mitch McConnell is the most powerful Republican in the Senate and deeply unpopular in Kentucky. His defeat would be a huge blow to Republicans and could save the Democrats from losing control of the Senate. First McConnell must fend off a challenge from the Tea Party candidate Matt Bevin. Current polls show him easily beating Bevin in the primary which takes place on the 20^th of May. His most serious challenge is from the state’s attorney general, Alison Lundergan Grimes. At the moment the HUffPost Pollster average shows them tied on 43.3%! That makes it the closest race in the country at the moment.

Current rating: Tossup

Arkansas:

Mark Pryor is possibly the weakest Democratic incumbent to face re-election in 2014. Pryor is facing a tough challenge from Representative Tom Cotton, who was first elected to Congress in 2012. Current polling shows Cotton holding a very slim lead over Pryor.

Current rating: Tossup

Louisiana:

The incumbent Senator is Mary Landrieu, a Democrat who has held the seat since 1997. Despite winning on three occasions, her races have always been close. Her 2014 challenger is likely to be Bill Cassidy who has served in the House since 2009. Louisiana has an odd system in that it holds a ‘jungle primary’ on election day. If no single candidate gets enough votes then the top two advance to a run-off in December.

Polling has been very thin in regards to this race, the most recent poll was taken by the Republican leaning firm Rasmussen and showed Cassidy leading Landrieu by 4%. Due to Rasmussen’s terrible 2012 polls, I am inclined to disregard it.

Current rating: Tossup

Montana:

When Senator Max Baucus announced his retirement, Democrats placed their hope in the popular former governor, Brian Schweitzer. Unfortunately Schweitzer declined to run (raising speculation that he might run for President in 2016), blowing the race wide open. Current polling shows Steve Daines winning the Republican nomination, John Walsh winning the Democratic Party nomination, but Daines winning the final election.

BUT! There has been a twist in the race. Obama has appointed Baucus as the US ambassador to China, as a result he had to resign his Senate seat. This lead Democratic governor Steve Bullock to appoint John Walsh as Baucus’ replacement. Being the incumbent Senator should give Walsh a very small boost.

The primary election is on the 3^rd of June.

Current rating: Leans Republican

North Carolina:

It seems that North Carolina may continue its march to the right and turf out Democratic Senator Kay Hagan. Unfortunately for Republicans, several candidates have declared that they will run for office, this makes it impossible for them to rally around one person early on. The primary election will take place on the 6^th of May and a run-off on the 15^th of July. The lateness of the primary is bad news for Republicans.

Current rating: Leans Democratic

Iowa:

When Democratic Senator Tom Harkin announced his retirement last year, it left the Republicans with a great opportunity. Unfortunately for Republicans, since then things have gone better for Democrats. Six people have declared that they will run for the open Senate seat on the Republican side, whereas only Representative Bruce Bailey has done so on the Democratic side. Only after the primary on the 3^rd of June will Republicans be able to coalesce around one candidate.

If I was a Democratic strategist in Iowa I would try the McCaskill tactic. This is whereby Democrats run adverts leading up to the Republican primary calling the weakest candidate a ‘true conservative’ in the hopes that they can win the primary. As a result of their win, the Democrats would be better placed to win the general election.

So far all polls show Bailey leading every potential Republican opponent.

Current rating: Likely Democrat

Michigan:

The incumbent Democratic Senator, Carl Levin, has spent 35 years in the Senate, which makes his retirement all the more painful for Democrats. Originally it looked likely that the seat would stay Democratic but recent polls show that the likely Republican nominee, Terri Lynn Land, has the edge over the likely Democratic nominee, Gary Peters.

But it is still too early to tell as 20% of the voters are undecided. Add to that the Democratic nature of Michigan.

Current rating: Leans Democratic

Georgia:

Other than Kentucky, this is the only Republican held seat with a chance of turning Democratic. This is thanks to the retirement of Saxby Chambliss, resulting in an open seat. What promises to plague both parties is that the amount of people running in the primary elections. There are eight running on the Republican side and five on the Democratic side.

There are two primaries, the first on the 20^th of May and a run-off on the 22^nd of July.

Due to a lack of polling on Georgia, it is difficult to accurately predict how the race will go.

Current rating: Leans Republican

West Virginia:

Despite the fact that West Virginia has not had a Republican Senator since 1956, it is the most likely state to change parties in 2014. This is thanks to the retirement of popular Democratic Senator, Jay Rockefeller, and the popular Republican Representative Shelley Moore Capito. The little polling done shows Capito easily beating any potential Democratic challenger.

Current rating: Likely Republican

South Dakota:

The retirement of Democratic Senator Tim Johnson was a huge blow to the Democrats. This blew the race wide open and gave the Republicans their second best change of flipping a seat. Polling has been sparse, but the current indicators are that former Governor Mike Rounds is the most likely to win.

Current rating: Likely Republican

Colorado:

Democratic Senator Mark Udall was first elected in the Democratic wave of 2008. So far his prospects are looking good in the Centennial State. No-one is challenging him in the primaries, which gives him an advantage over Republicans. There are six declared candidates in the Republican primary. It is important to note here that Ken Buck is currently leading the primary field. This could bode well for Democrats as Buck failed to oust a much weaker Democrat in 2010 when the atmosphere was much more favourable to Republicans than 2014 will be. Buck will not pose much of a threat to Udall if he wins.

Current rating: Likely Democratic

Alaska:

Democratic Senator Mark Begich is likely going to be the target of Republicans due to the red nature of Alaska. At the moment there are five declared candidates on the Republican side, which will hamper their side significantly.

The best candidate for the Republicans is Mead Treadwell, the current Lieutenant Governor of Alaska and the candidate most likely to defeat Begich. The best hope for Democrats is that Joe Miller, who almost sabotaged the 2010 Senate race for Republicans, wins the primary. This is another race where the McCaskill tactic should be employed, if Miller wins the primary, Democrats will win the general election. Watch for the primary on the 19^th of August.

Current rating: Leans Democratic

New Hampshire:

Jeanne Shaheen is the incumbent Democratic Senator and most likely to win this race. All polling shows Shaheen leading any potential challenger. There has been talk that Scott Brown, the former Senator from Massachusetts, could enter the race. Even if he did enter, I believe that the charge that he doesn’t care about New Hampshire would be too strong.

Current rating: Likely Democratic

Prediction table:

Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Leans Dem	Tossup	Leans Rep	Likely Rep	Safe Rep
DE, HI, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA	Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire	Alaska, North Carolina, Michigan	Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana	Georgia, Montana	South Dakota, West Virginia	AL, ID, KS, ME, MS, NE, OK, OK*, SC, SC*, TN, TX, WY

* indicates special election

Colour indicates which party currently holds the seat

If I take my predictions as certain (i.e. count all leans/likely as definite) then that would result in 50 Democrats and 47 Republicans with three states (Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana) up for grabs. This is why I predicted that Democrats would hold the Senate. Despite this, things are far from safe for Democrats. A screw up in any of the lean seats could cause them to lose control of the Senate.

My advice to Democrats would be to employ the McCaskill tactic, particularly in Alaska, Georgia and North Carolina. My advice to Republicans would be to choose moderates in close races to avoid defeat.

Here’s a timetable of the primary elections for states I felt had interesting Senate races. For the full 2014 list click here.

State	Date
North Carolina	6th of May
West Virginia	13th of May
Arkansas	20th of May
Kentucky	20th of May
Georgia	20th of May
Montana	3rd of June
South Dakota	3rd of June
Iowa	3rd of June
Colorado	24th of June
North Carolina run-off	15th of July
Georgia run-off (primary)	22nd of July
Michigan	5th of August
Alaska	19th of August
New Hampshire	9th of September
Election (Louisiana primary)	4th of November
Louisiana run-off	6th of December
Georgia run-off (general)	6th of January 2015

Scotland Legalises Same-Sex Marriage!

The Scottish Parliament made history yesterday when it voted by a margin of 105 – 18 to legalise same-sex marriage. This was an overwhelming victory for gay rights advocates and a humiliating defeat for the homophobes. This means that Northern Ireland is now the only UK country to not have legal same-sex marriage. Unfortunately due to the opposition of Unionists, this will not be changed through the legislative process anytime soon.

So where will gay rights activists succeed next? At the moment there are bills pending or proposed in 23 countries that would establish some sort of gay unions. There are also seven sub-national jurisdictions which are in a similar position. In the US 20 states are having their bans on same-sex marriage challenged in the courts. In Oregon voters will decide whether or not to legalise same-sex marriage and Ohio activists are collecting signatures to ensure that Ohio does the same!

Hopefully by the end of 2014, gay rights will have advanced across the globe!