North Korean Horrors

Out of sight, out of mind. This phrase comes to mind when I think of how the world treats North Korea. It is easy for us to ignore something if we don’t know exactly what’s going on, and all we do hear comes in form of rumours. That excuse for doing little can be no longer. The report leased on Monday by the UN is truly disgusting, and it spares no details.

The story of a six year old girl beaten to death for stealing a small amount of grain is one of the most horrific. A woman who fled to China, but was later deported back to North Korea, was forced to drown her baby immediately after birth as the father was Chinese. The North Korean regime is obsessed with racial purity. The North Koreans are so terrified that when a man dropped a machine in the factory he works at, he was grateful that he only had one finger chopped off.

All of these horrific cases, and more, are contained in the UN report.

The concentration camps which hold 100,000s of citizens are worryingly similar to the concentration camps of Nazi Germany. Forced abortions, beatings, rape, summary executions and starvation are commonplace in these monstrous camps. After the horrors of WWII we said never again. After Cambodia we said never again. After Rwanda we said never again. After Bosnia we said never again. Will we ignore North Korea and when it’s all over say never again?

The UN was also critical of China for sending fleeing North Koreans back to the country, despite full knowledge of the conditions. This is probably part of the reason why China has criticised the report as being “unreasonable”. Although Chinese officials seem to have acknowledged that North Korea is committing human rights abuses, they claim that the UN report is not the way to go about helping the situation. The Chinese are also aware of human rights abuses in their own country and fear setting a precedent of the UN acting on these issues.

Michael Kirby, the chairman of the inquiry that released the report sent an open letter to North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-Un. In the letter he requested that Kim present himself before the inquiry to explain himself. The letter also warned Kim that he would be held accountable under international law, suggesting that he might get tried by the International Criminal Court.

So what should the world do? Well I certainly agree with the idea of trying them at the ICC, even in abstentia. Other than that, it is a difficult issue. Economic sanctions are already pretty tight, so it is difficult to see how much tighter they could be. Military intervention is out of the question as the ensuing war would cost the lives of millions of people. The only other thing we could do is pressure China to do something. China is North Korea’s only remaining friend in the world and the only country with any influence over the Hermit Kingdom.

The issue of North Korea is a difficult one, but one which we cannot, in all good conscience, ignore. 

A rare picture of a North Korean Concentration Camp
source: Policymic

Old World Order - Japan

Population: 127 million
Area: 378,000km2
GDP: $5.9 trillion
GDP (per capita): $35,000

Japan is unique in the countries that I am reviewing; it is the only Asian country and the only one never to have beenm controlled by Europeans. Japan has a very large economy, behind only the USA and China. This, seemingly successful, economy is in part thanks to US investment following WWII out of fears that Japan might fall to the Communists. The truth is that although the Japenese economy is large, it is also stagnant and has been since the early 1990s. Japan is also facing problems in the future; the rise of China, fear of North Korea, and an ageing and shrinking population.

The rise of China is a serious threat to Japan, it already has a larger economy and higher military expenditure. China also has the world's largest standing army. China and Japan are currently arguing over the rights to fish in the waters between the two nations. A stronger China would find it easier to bully Japan. Thankfully the Japanese have the Americans backing them.

Another issue I mentioned was fear of North Korea. This may never amount to anything, but could prove disastrous for Japan if things do fo wrong. Nobody id quite sure what nuclear capability North Korea has, but we can be pretty certain that within the next decade (if not already) that it will have nuclear weapons that can reach anywhere in Japan. This is really worrying as tensions between the two Koreas is at a high and rising. If the regime in Pyongyang were to send nuclear missiles to Japan, the result would be devastating.

The North Korean problem may never come to fruition, but one problem Japan is already facing is an aging and declining population. The fertility rate in Japan is very low, which means the working population is shrinking whilst the dependent population is increasing. Fewer people working means lower government revenue, whilst more retired people means higher government expenditire through pensions and healthcare. This is a recipe for disaster as Japan's debt to GDP ratio, at 214% of GDP, is the highest in the world, even higher than Greece and Zimbabwe! Japan's stagnant economy is not helped by its declining population, currently Japan is the 10th largest country in the world with 127 million people. By 2050 this is expected to decline to 107 million people, making it the 17th largest.

Low growth has been the standard for the Japanese economy over the past two decades. Japan has never really recovered from a crash in the early 1990s. If a government were to actually pull Japan out of the doldrums then it would be a miracle.

So Japan faces three main problems; challenges from Asian neighbours, poor economic performance and a declining population.

North Korea Vs. Iran

In the past couple of years we have heard a lot about the nuclear programmes in North Korea and Iran, yet the public in the West only seems to take Iran seriously. Here are some similarities and differences between the two countries.

Both countries have issued serious threats to nearby countries. Iran has threatened to wipe Israel off the map, North Korea has threatened to turn South Korea into a "sea of fire".

Both nations have active nuclear programmes.

Both are dictatorships.

Both countries suppress free speech.

Both countries are currently under sanctions from the UN.

Both countries frequently threaten the West.

Only one has tested nuclear weapons - North Korea

Only one has nuclear weapons - North Korea

Only one has 'declared' war on its sworn enemy - North Korea

As you can see both countries are very similar in how they approach the world, yet only one of them is taken seriously by the Western Public. Despite the fact that we take North Korea less seriously, it has the more advanced nuclear programme! So why do we take Iran more seriously than North Korea? I will try and help you out.

One of the primary reasons is the culture of islamophobia in the West, particularly in the United States. The failed states, such as Afghanistan, have been breeding terrorists for decades that attacked Westerners living in the area. After Al Qaeda turned global in 2001, the fear the West had for Muslims went sky high causing many people to fear Muslims. The fact that Iran is a Muslim country fuels peoples' fears and means we take Iran more seriously. There is also the more rational fear that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, and the weapons fall into the hands of Al Qaeda, then the risk to the West would be massive.

Iran and North Korea both know that if they attack the USA, or its allies, with nuclear weapons, then the USA will retaliate with nuclear weapons, annihilating their countries. This is another reason why people are more fearful of a nuclear Iran; Iran is fun by Muslim fundamentalists and the fear is that they might decide that annihilation is worth it for 'Jihad'. On the other hand the regime in North Korea is the most important thing to North Koreans, annihilation is the last thing they want.

The last reason we take North Korea less seriously than Iran is about the image portrayed by both nations and their leaders. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is older and looks more serious than the podgy, young Kim Jong-Un. North Korean propaganda also makes North Korea look like a joke, the little we hear about them is simply hilarious. According to North Korean propaganda, Jim Il-Sung (the original dictator) had a "supernatural" birth,  Jim Jong-Il was a worldwide fashion trend setter and people loved him globally and he invented the hamburger. Less is propaganda is known about Kim Jong-Un, apart from the 'fact' that he found a unicorn lair. Seriously. And North Korea wonders why we won't take them seriously.

North Korea Determined to Start War

In 1962 the world braced itself for nuclear war, it was looking increasingly likely that the USA and USSR would be unable to come to an agreement over what to do about the Caribbean nation of Cuba. Thankfully the crisis was ended with a peace deal, not nuclear war, but the event has generally been noted by historians as the one occasion when nuclear war was a real possibility.  It would appear that Kim Jong-Un is trying to add 2013 as the next year when nuclear war could be a realistic outcome. In the past few months he has been ratcheting up tensions with the US and South Korea over a multitude of issues. The latest escalation came when the North released the following statement:

“We formally inform the White House and Pentagon that the ever-escalating US hostile policy towards the DPRK [North Korea] and its reckless nuclear threat will be smashed by the strong will of all the united service personnel and people and cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike… and that the merciless operation of its revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.”

In response to the declaration the US has begun moving nuclear defences to Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. Unfortunately this has been taken as an act of aggression by North Korea which seems hell bent on re-starting the Korean War, taking millions of people with it.

Already North Korea has declared a state of war with South Korea, although no direct actions have yet taken place. It has further antagonised the south by threatening to re-start a project to great weapons grade nuclear material and promised to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire”. Its actions earlier this year by performing another nuclear test have not helped the situation.

But will all this actually lead to a war? It’s difficult to say, it could be that Jong-Un is trying to solidify power by proving to the military leaders that he can be tough on the West. The difficulty is that Jong-Un could heighten tensions so much that war becomes inevitable, that the US or South Korea launch a pre-emptive strike out of pure fear. Very little is known about the Orwellian society so attempting to predict an outcome is difficult, will the north go to war? I would like to think not, but I’m not going to try and predict what will happen next.

North Korean Craziness

If there was a prize for craziest regime, I believe North Korea would win that prize. In the past week several stories have emerged of the regime threatening catastrophic war. A couple of days ago North Korea threatened to void the armistice that ended the devastating Korean War in 1953. North Korea threatened both South Korea and Japan with war if certain conditions are not met, the regime claimed that they would turn the Seoul Presidential Palace into a "sea of fire". The issue over which North Korea is getting so aggressive about is joint sea and land exercises by the South Korean and US military which are due to take place on the 11th, four days away. In response South Korea has said that any attack would be taken as an act of war and South Korea will defend itself.

But even North Korea managed to top its own craziness and has threatened the US with nuclear war. The regime claims that the US is using the military drills as a cover to plant nuclear weapons. "Since the US is about to ignite a nuclear war, we will be exercising our right to pre-emptive nuclear attack against the headquarters of the aggressor in order to protect our supreme interest." Paranoid, right?

It is true that the North Korean regime always uses aggressive rhetoric when it comes to South Korea and its allies. Yet this seems to be a new level, threatening nuclear annihilation. This heightening of rhetoric occurred when the UN Security Council was discussing new sanctions on North Korea due to their nuclear test last month. The heightened rhetoric probably helped to push China into agreeing to the new sanctions earlier today, this will put real pressure on the small, isolated nation.

The big problem with North Korea is that no-one knows how to deal with it. An invasion would be totally out of the question, China is unlikely to agree to it so an invasion from the north is out of the question. The border between South and North Korea is too heavily defended and an amphibious invasion would be extremely costly to the invader. We have to see how sanctions go but I feel that eventually different actions will have to be taken. The US may be forced to place nuclear weapons in South Korea and Japan to try and act as a deterrence against North Korea. In the mean time, let's hope they don't do anything stupid! 

North Korean Nuclear Test

North Korea has further infuriated the world earlier today when the small, isolated country carried out a third nuclear test. North Korea is a rogue state, it only has one friend in the world: China. Despite the alliance with North Korea, China is worried about what its little neighbour will do if it actually acquires fully functioning, long range, nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly the West will call for tougher sanctions on North Korea, but this won’t stop Kim Jong-Un from achieving the inevitable. The rest of the world must realise that North Korea will become a truly nuclear state within the next few years, and although we should do whatever we can to slow their progress, we must prepare for what comes after North Korea’s success. A nuclear North Korea would pose a grave threat to world security, none more so than neighbouring South Korea and close-by Japan. In both these countries people fear that the craziness of the North Korean regime should not be underestimated and that a nuclear attack on either country should not be dismissed. So what can Japan and South Korea do to defend themselves? The North Korea-South Korea border is already the most heavily fortified in the world and both countries have a massive military. Currently the situation is somewhat stable, but nuclear weapons for North Korea would throw the balance off completely. One suggestion is stationing US nuclear weapons in Japan and South Korea in a form of a nuclear sharing programme. Probably similar to how the US currently shares some nuclear weapons with several NATO countries. Naturally placing US weapons in South Korea and Japan would make China very nervous, putting a strain on Sino-American relationships. Considering the rise of China, the Americans might be wary of angering the future super power. For obvious historical reasons, many in Japan would be very upset at the idea of American nuclear weapons in Japan, especially considering they’d likely be in the south of the country close to Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

Unfortunately it’s impossible to know a way out of the situation. An invasion is totally out of the situation as the North Korean military is very strong for a small country and the border is extremely well fortified. A war would likely be as devastating to the Korean peninsula as was the previous Korean War in which 2.5 million people were killed. 

North Korea Launches Rocket

The world condemned North Korea this morning after it successfully launched a rocket into orbit. This has terrified South Korea which shares a hostile border with its northern neighbour and Japan which is also in close proximity. Both nations are aware that North Korea has nuclear weapons and with this successful satellite launch, may have a means of delivery.

Under UN sanctions North Korea is banned from launching rockets, immediately Japan called on the Security Council to hold meetings over the event. Morocco, which holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council, announced that that there would be closed door discussions today. The US was swift in its condemnation of the launch, the White House made the following statement this morning: “The international community must work in a concerted fashion to send North Korea a clear message that its violations of UN Security Council resolutions have consequences.” We won’t know for a while what those consequences will be yet. It will be important to watch what China does in this situation, China is North Korea’s closest ally, and although it warned North Korea strongly against launching the rocket, its response has been noticeably tamer than those of the other Security Council members. China will likely be angry at North Korea for following this path; this launch will likely cause North Korea, Japan and the US to increase military cooperation in the area which could weaken China’s position. Getting a resolution past China, which has a veto, could still prove difficult.

This is all happening in the context of starving North Koreans who have been brainwashed to believe that the North Korean state, and in particular its leaders, are saints. The rare glimpse we get of North Korea from the outside world is truly shocking, people praise their leaders for their guidance but unbeknownst to them their leaders don’t care about them. With the knowledge of widespread brainwashing, the type Hitler tried in Germany; it’s hard to see a revolution occurring in North Korea for a long, long time. With that in mind the West, and in particular South Korea and Japan, must prepare for a world in which North Korea can wipe out whole cities in its neighbouring countries. Would the US placing nuclear weapons in South Korea or Japan be out of the question? North Korea may be less likely to use a nuclear weapon frivolously if it thinks Japan or South Korea could launch an immediate counter strike. Could we see a revival of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) Doctrine in North East Asia? It is early days yet, but the craziness of the North Korean regime should not be underestimated, the West’s reaction needs to be swift. Very swift.  

North Korean Embarrassment

Yesterday North Korea was humiliate in front of the whole world when their rocket launch failed. The rocket was up in the air for only one minute before it broke up and fell into the Yellow Sea. Unlike normal, Western media was allowed into the country to record the whole thing. The reason for foreign journalists being allowed into the country is that North Korea wanted to prove to the world that its launch was solely for peaceful purposes. Despite this the launch was condemned by the world as North Korea is banned from rocket launches. Many countries believe that this launch was a disguise for a missile test for an intercontinental ballistic missile. Japan and South Korea both stated that if the rocket strayed into their airspace that they would shoot it down.

A UN Security Council meeting has been called to discuss the event with tighter sanctions likely to be the result. It will be interesting to see how the closest country North Korea has to an ally, China, reacts.

The embarrassing failure comes on the first official day of North Korea's new leader, Kim Jong-Un. In Pyongyang today two gargantuan statues were revealed of Jong-Un's predecessors Kim Jong-Il and Kim Il-Sung (who are his father and grandfather respectively). Some people believe that in an attempt to recover some pride and respect, Jong-Un will test a nuclear weapon, which will scare North Korea's neighbours and the rest of the West. When so many people are dying of starvation it is hard to see how the North Koreans put up with the expensive military, statues and space programmes. North Korea is one state where brainwashing truly has worked.

Nuclear Weapons

Since 1945, when America destroyed two Japanese cities, nuclear weapons have been central to negotiations between west and east. When the Cold War ended in the early 1990s, helped by the breakup of the USSR and Warsaw Pact, the amount of nuclear warheads has subsequently decreased significantly. To understand the place of nuclear weapons in the modern world we need to know which countries have nuclear weapons and which countries want them.

The five permanent UN Security Council members have their own weapons which they control independently (China, France, Russia, UK, USA) and are members of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty). Non-NPT members who have declared that they have weapons are India, Pakistan and North Korea. Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Turkey have a nuclear sharing programme organised through NATO. Israel is known to have nuclear weapons, but refuses to declare this. There is strong evidence that Iran is attempting to get nuclear weapons but she denies this.

There have always been campaigns against nuclear weapons, especially in the west through CND and other anti-Nuclear organisations. The reason why the west has nuclear weapons is as a deterrent against aggressive regimes such as Iran and North Korea. I believe that all the signatories of the NPT and the non-signatories Pakistan and India would not fire weapons at a country, provoked or un-provoked. I cannot say the same for Iran and North Korea, they are rogue nations which appear to want to destroy other countries without thought for the consequences. Iran is particularly dangerous as it has promised that if Iran gets nuclear weapons it will obliterate Israel. Also, due to the religious beliefs of many Iranians, they may not mind if firing nuclear weapons at Israel results in the death of half their population after a retaliatory attack. This is very dangerous for our world and the NWS (Nuclear Weapon States) must keep their weapons as a deterrent against Iran and North Korea. Not only do nuclear weapons dissuade other countries from firing or getting them, it also dissuades them from attacking or invading other countries unprovoked and because of this nuclear warheads can be said to be helping to maintain world peace.

I believe that no nation should have nuclear warheads but in an imperfect world, the west would not be safe without them.

Light blue - NWS & NPT
Dark blue - Nuclear sharing (NATO)
Red - Declared NWS non-NPT
Black - suspected of attempting to get weapons
Yellow - Got weapons but does not declare
Green - ex-nuclear weapon states

North Korea

Kim Jong-Il died last December, although North Korea only really has one friend in China, the world still watches with interest over Kim’s death. North Korea is one of the few remaining communist countries left and certainly the most secretive. It has a huge military (4^th in the world in terms of active military personnel, despite being 51^st in terms of population), every so often it has minor border scraps with South Korea that keep tensions between the two Koreas high. But it is the country’s nuclear capabilities that worry the rest of the world. Especially since Kim Jong-Il’s inexperienced son, Kim Jong-Un is the one to take power. The fears of a scrap between the leading generals in who will control North Korea have yet to occur, if they ever do. I feel that he will likely remain a puppet leader with the generals making the actual decisions.

Watching the funeral was quite fascinating, it’s hard to imagine any western country pouring out that much grief over a dead leader. How much of that grief was genuine, we probably will never know, on the one hand the people of Korea are so brainwashed to think that Kim Jong-Il was the man who saved them from the evil outside world that the grief might actually be genuine. Yet in a country were half the people are starving and the top live in total luxury (so much for “communism”) it’s hard to imagine that if they knew the truth, they’d be so devastated.

Kim Jong-Il