As promised I have written up a prediction for how the
2014 Senate elections will go.
Kentucky:
Without a doubt Kentucky will be this year’s most
interesting Senate race. Mitch McConnell is the most powerful Republican in the
Senate and deeply unpopular in Kentucky. His defeat would be a huge blow to
Republicans and could save the Democrats from losing control of the Senate.
First McConnell must fend off a challenge from the Tea Party candidate Matt
Bevin. Current polls show him easily beating Bevin in the primary which takes
place on the 20th of May. His most serious challenge is from the
state’s attorney general, Alison Lundergan Grimes. At the moment the HUffPost
Pollster average shows them tied on 43.3%! That makes it the closest race in
the country at the moment.
Current rating: Tossup
Arkansas:
Mark Pryor is possibly the weakest Democratic incumbent
to face re-election in 2014. Pryor is facing a tough challenge from
Representative Tom Cotton, who was first elected to Congress in 2012. Current
polling shows Cotton holding a very slim lead over Pryor.
Current rating: Tossup
Louisiana:
The incumbent Senator is Mary Landrieu, a Democrat who
has held the seat since 1997. Despite winning on three occasions, her races
have always been close. Her 2014 challenger is likely to be Bill Cassidy who
has served in the House since 2009. Louisiana has an odd system in that it
holds a ‘jungle primary’ on election day. If no single candidate gets enough
votes then the top two advance to a run-off in December.
Polling has been very thin in regards to this race, the
most recent poll was taken by the Republican leaning firm Rasmussen and showed
Cassidy leading Landrieu by 4%. Due to Rasmussen’s terrible 2012 polls, I am inclined
to disregard it.
Current rating: Tossup
Montana:
When Senator Max Baucus announced his retirement,
Democrats placed their hope in the popular former governor, Brian Schweitzer.
Unfortunately Schweitzer declined to run (raising speculation that he might run
for President in 2016), blowing the race wide open. Current polling shows Steve
Daines winning the Republican nomination, John Walsh winning the Democratic
Party nomination, but Daines winning the final election.
BUT! There has been a twist in the race. Obama has
appointed Baucus as the US ambassador to China, as a result he had to resign
his Senate seat. This lead Democratic governor Steve Bullock to appoint John
Walsh as Baucus’ replacement. Being the incumbent Senator should give Walsh a
very small boost.
The primary election is on the 3rd of June.
Current rating: Leans Republican
North Carolina:
It seems that North Carolina may continue its march to
the right and turf out Democratic Senator Kay Hagan. Unfortunately for Republicans,
several candidates have declared that they will run for office, this makes it
impossible for them to rally around one person early on. The primary election
will take place on the 6th of May and a run-off on the 15th
of July. The lateness of the primary is bad news for Republicans.
Current rating: Leans Democratic
Iowa:
When Democratic Senator Tom Harkin announced his
retirement last year, it left the Republicans with a great opportunity. Unfortunately
for Republicans, since then things have gone better for Democrats. Six people
have declared that they will run for the open Senate seat on the Republican
side, whereas only Representative Bruce Bailey has done so on the Democratic
side. Only after the primary on the 3rd of June will Republicans be
able to coalesce around one candidate.
If I was a Democratic strategist in Iowa I would try the
McCaskill tactic. This is whereby Democrats run adverts leading up to the Republican
primary calling the weakest candidate a ‘true conservative’ in the hopes that
they can win the primary. As a result of their win, the Democrats would be
better placed to win the general election.
So far all polls show Bailey leading every potential
Republican opponent.
Current rating: Likely Democrat
Michigan:
The incumbent Democratic Senator, Carl Levin, has spent
35 years in the Senate, which makes his retirement all the more painful for
Democrats. Originally it looked likely that the seat would stay Democratic but recent
polls show that the likely Republican nominee, Terri Lynn Land, has the edge
over the likely Democratic nominee, Gary Peters.
But it is still too early to tell as 20% of the voters
are undecided. Add to that the Democratic nature of Michigan.
Current rating: Leans Democratic
Georgia:
Other than Kentucky, this is the only Republican held
seat with a chance of turning Democratic. This is thanks to the retirement of
Saxby Chambliss, resulting in an open seat. What promises to plague both
parties is that the amount of people running in the primary elections. There
are eight running on the Republican side and five on the Democratic side.
There are two primaries, the first on the 20th
of May and a run-off on the 22nd of July.
Due to a lack of polling on Georgia, it is difficult to
accurately predict how the race will go.
Current rating: Leans Republican
West Virginia:
Despite the fact that West Virginia has not had a
Republican Senator since 1956, it is the most likely state to change parties in
2014. This is thanks to the retirement of popular Democratic Senator, Jay Rockefeller,
and the popular Republican Representative Shelley Moore Capito. The little
polling done shows Capito easily beating any potential Democratic challenger.
Current rating: Likely Republican
South Dakota:
The retirement of Democratic Senator Tim Johnson was a
huge blow to the Democrats. This blew the race wide open and gave the
Republicans their second best change of flipping a seat. Polling has been
sparse, but the current indicators are that former Governor Mike Rounds is the
most likely to win.
Current rating: Likely Republican
Colorado:
Democratic Senator Mark Udall was first elected in the
Democratic wave of 2008. So far his prospects are looking good in the Centennial
State. No-one is challenging him in the primaries, which gives him an advantage
over Republicans. There are six declared candidates in the Republican primary.
It is important to note here that Ken Buck is currently leading the primary
field. This could bode well for Democrats as Buck failed to oust a much weaker
Democrat in 2010 when the atmosphere was much more favourable to Republicans
than 2014 will be. Buck will not pose much of a threat to Udall if he wins.
Current rating: Likely Democratic
Alaska:
Democratic Senator Mark Begich is likely going to be the
target of Republicans due to the red nature of Alaska. At the moment there are
five declared candidates on the Republican side, which will hamper their side
significantly.
The best candidate for the Republicans is Mead Treadwell,
the current Lieutenant Governor of Alaska and the candidate most likely to
defeat Begich. The best hope for Democrats is that Joe Miller, who almost
sabotaged the 2010 Senate race for Republicans, wins the primary. This is another
race where the McCaskill tactic should be employed, if Miller wins the primary,
Democrats will win the general election. Watch for the primary on the 19th
of August.
Current rating: Leans Democratic
New Hampshire:
Jeanne Shaheen is the incumbent Democratic Senator and
most likely to win this race. All polling shows Shaheen leading any potential
challenger. There has been talk that Scott Brown, the former Senator from Massachusetts,
could enter the race. Even if he did enter, I believe that the charge that he
doesn’t care about New Hampshire would be too strong.
Current rating: Likely Democratic
Prediction table:
Safe Dem
|
Likely Dem
|
Leans Dem
|
Tossup
|
Leans Rep
|
Likely Rep
|
Safe Rep
|
DE, HI, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
|
Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire
|
Alaska, North Carolina, Michigan
|
Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana
|
Georgia, Montana
|
South Dakota, West Virginia
|
AL, ID, KS, ME, MS, NE, OK, OK*, SC, SC*, TN, TX, WY
|
* indicates special election
Colour indicates which party currently holds the seat
If I take my predictions as certain (i.e. count all leans/likely
as definite) then that would result in 50 Democrats and 47 Republicans with
three states (Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana) up for grabs. This is why I
predicted that Democrats would hold the Senate. Despite this, things are far
from safe for Democrats. A screw up in any of the lean seats could cause them to
lose control of the Senate.
My advice to Democrats would be to employ the McCaskill
tactic, particularly in Alaska, Georgia and North Carolina. My advice to
Republicans would be to choose moderates in close races to avoid defeat.
Here’s a timetable of the primary elections for states I
felt had interesting Senate races. For the full 2014 list click here.
State
|
Date
|
North Carolina
|
6th of May
|
West Virginia
|
13th of May
|
Arkansas
|
20th of May
|
Kentucky
|
20th of May
|
Georgia
|
20th of May
|
Montana
|
3rd of June
|
South Dakota
|
3rd of June
|
Iowa
|
3rd of June
|
Colorado
|
24th of June
|
North Carolina run-off
|
15th of July
|
Georgia run-off (primary)
|
22nd of July
|
Michigan
|
5th of August
|
Alaska
|
19th of August
|
New Hampshire
|
9th of September
|
Election (Louisiana primary)
|
4th of November
|
Louisiana run-off
|
6th of December
|
Georgia run-off (general)
|
6th of January 2015
|
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