Egyptian Revolution: Round II

In the Arab Spring of 2011, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak was forced to resign following mass protests and the desertion of his army. Following democratic elections in 2011/2012 Islamist Mohamed Morsi became the first democratically elected President of Egypt. Naturally the election of an Islamist angered and scared secularists and Christians in Egypt, who feared that society might end up looking like Iran.

After Morsi was elected, he began to take more and more powers for himself. He arrested more people for the ‘crime’ of insulting the President than Mubarak had done in his entire run as President! He also gave immunity to those working on drafting the new constitution, who were only Islamists by this stage.

Protests against the leadership and actions of President Morsi began in late 2012 after Morsi’s government effectively gave the President unlimited power. This may have seemed like a good idea to the Islamists, but considering that Egyptians had proven themselves adept at revolutions, it was actually a monumentally stupid one! The protesters simply would not go away. Protests intensified in late June 2013 as the one year anniversary of Morsi’s inauguration approached. Eventually the army intervened and deposed President Morsi on the 3^rd of July 2013. The Army’s leader, General al-Sisi announced that Adly Mansour, Chief Justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court would become interim President.

Despite Morsi’s unpopularity with many Egyptians, particularly secularists, liberals and Christians, he still had many supporters. As well as being President, Morsi was leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organisation that has been banned in Egypt for most of its existence. After Morsi was deposed several other leaders were arrested and the Muslim Brotherhood was made illegal once again in September. Naturally the Muslim Brotherhood protested against their treatment, but they experienced a bloody crackdown. Despite the bloodshed, they are still protesting.

Egypt has had a tumultuous few years since the 2011 Revolution, and it certainly won’t become a stable democracy overnight. The future is unclear, it will be difficult, but if good Egyptians work hard, they can prevent Egypt from stumbling back into dictatorship.

Protesters in Tahrir Square, Cairo in 2013
source: freethoughtblogs.com

Chaos Returns to Egypt

Egypt has been plunged into chaos since President Morsi was deposed earlier this week and much of the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood was arrested. Egypt is split over whether to support the actions of the army, initially Morsi opponents spilled onto the streets, letting off fireworks and cheering with joy. The Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters are distraught and have since poured onto the streets to show their rejection of the army's actions. Some protests have turned violent and over 70 protesters have been killed in clashes with the army and security forces. The next few weeks will be extremely important for Egypt's future as the Muslim Brotherhood continues to protest and the army continues to crack down on them. The army has called for fresh elections to the presidency and parliament and a re-drawing of the constitution.

New elections will give the secularist left a chance to steal the revolution back from the Islamists. The left was totally disorganised at the last election in 2012 with no uniting candidate for President. This meant that the run-off for president was between Ahmed Shafik and Mohammed Morsi. Shafik had been the final Prime Minister under Mubarak and Morsi had the backing of the 85 year old Muslim Brotherhood, so both were considerably better organised than the disorientated left.

If Egypt actually makes it to the next election in a peaceful state then we can only hole that the President Egypt chooses is not an Islamists or a Mubarak crony but rather a force for change.

Egypt's Chaotic Year

It’s been a rocky year for Egyptians in 2012, but there is some hope for the future. It started off well in January when parliament sat for the first time, the army subsequently handed over legislative authority to the parliament. This was a sight that Egypt may indeed be moving forward, progress seemed to occur again when the presidential election took place. Although people were not pleased with the choice in the second round of voting, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi and ex-dictator Mubarak’s last Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik. Things began to look a bit more like a rollercoaster after that, later in June the army declared that it had picked the people who would sit on a 100 member assembly that would draft a new constitution and the next day it dissolved parliament. On the other hand on the 26^th of June the courts revoked a decree allowing military personnel the right to arrest civilians and on the 30^th the army handed power to the newly elected President, Mohamed Morsi.

Right from the start Morsi faced problems, the economy was (and still is) in tatters and foreign investors are wary of putting any money into Egypt. Over the coming months there was a struggle between Morsi, allied with the Islamists and Salafists, the army and a coalition of secularists, Christians and women. Unfortunately for the final group they have no power, they were outnumbered on the Constitutional Assembly and the President is an Islamist. They fear the introduction of even parts of Sharia Law, Coptic Christians account for 10% of Egypt’s 80 million citizens. The Army hopes to remain powerful, and it may get its wish! When Morsi issued his controversial decrees in November, one of them stated that the minister of defence must come from the army. This basically means that army lacks civilian oversight. The November decrees that broadened Morsi’s powers were met with anger on the streets of Egypt as people feared a return to dictatorship.

The coalition of anti-Islamists decided to boycott the referendum on the new constitution which led to the low turnout of only 33%. In the end the constitution passed with around 64% of people voting to adopt it. Next year will be very important for the direction of the country, whether it does liberalise as many people had hoped originally or does it go down the route of Sharia law?

A poster comparing Morsi to Mubarak
source: theatlantic.com

Morsi Bows to Pressure

Early this month I posted about Egypt’s democracy being on a knife edge, the President Mohamed Morsi had issued a number of decrees with massively expanded his authority. This sparked massive protests, the biggest since last year’s revolution, under pressure Morsi has cancelled some of the controversial decrees. Morsi has cancelled the decrees which block judges from challenging his authority and give him the ability of pass ‘emergency laws’. Yet this does not mean that the protests will end and everyone will go home happy, the opposition protests also want the constitutional referendum cancelled. The constitution is not very popular with the opposition; they claim that it ignores the needs of women, secularists and the country’s significant minority.

The protests have resulted in seven deaths and over 700 injuries, the Cairo headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood (Morsi’s party) have been set on fire and protesters have threatened the Presidential Palace. Morsi has been forced to retreat behind barbed wire, police, militias and tanks as the protests have become increasingly violent. Some of the protesters have begun calling for Morsi to resign.

Egypt’s powerful army has warned against the country entering a “dark tunnel” and have called for the two sides to meet and broker a compromise. Despite Morsi’s repeal of a decree, a compromise is looking increasingly unlikely. Just today an opposition group has announced that they will boycott the referendum, which is scheduled to take place next Saturday. This doesn’t seem like the best idea, in boycotting the referendum they will not register a vote against it and therefore make the constitution more likely to become the law. It is a dangerous game they are playing, both sides argue that they have the ideas of the revolution at heart but they seem unable to agree on anything.

The events of the following week will be extremely important for the future of Egypt and the chances of its democracy surviving.

Democracy in Egypt on Life Support

When Hosni Mubarak was ousted as dictator of Egypt last year there was a wave of hope that change was coming. In the past year and a half there were the first elections to Egypt's parliament and the position of president was actually elected. Yet Egypt's fledgling democracy now lives on a knife edge. Riding on a wave of praise due to his involvement in the Gaza-Israeli ceasefire, Morsi decided that it would be a good time to give himself radical new powers and issue other decrees that infuriated Egyptians. The resulting fury spilt into protests across Egypt and the largest (as always) was in Tahrir Square, Cairo. The protests, which are the largest since the 2011 Revolutionary Protests, should remind Morsi that he only has weak support. Although Morsi did win the Presidential election, he only received 51.7% of the vote and the only other candidate was a Mubarak ally. Many Egyptians chose Morsi, not because they liked him by because he was the lesser of two evils. Ordinary civilians aren't the only ones angry at Morsi, frightful investors cause the stock market to plummet by 12%, Egypt's judges have gone on strike an basically every Christian, secularist and female representative in parliament has resigned.

For many Egyptians the decrees prove their extreme suspicion of Morsi and his party, the Muslim Brotherhood. One of the more controversial decrees is to put the president above the law until a constitution imposes a limit! Morsi had also decreed that there can no longer be any legal challenges to the body that drew up the constitution. Not all the decrees have caused anger, the decision to fire the public prosecutor, a Mubarak appointee and allowing the retrials of Mubarak's allies were welcomed.

The constitution going forward to a referendum could easily be defeated by a coalition of secularists, Christians, women and trade unions. Many fear the constitution puts too much power in the hands of the executive and the military (a combination which ruled with an iron grip for 40 years). The decision that the defence minister must also was be in the army had worried many that without civilian oversight, the army will be as powerful as ever. If Egyptians reject the constitution it gives hope that a new one will be fairer and less Islamist. The opposition needs to form a strong coalition to fight back against the powerful Muslim Brotherhood.

Israel-Gaza Attacks

Violence has returned to Israel and Palestine after the Israelis killed Hamas’ top military official, Ahmed Jabari, in a rocket strike last week. The situation turned from bad to worse when both sides pounded each other with rockets and missiles. Many feared an escalation was possible when rockets from Gaza managed to reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, both cities are usually safe from rockets. Yet the reality is that this situation is much worse for Gaza, already 130 Palestinians have been killed, the vast majority of which have been civilians. This is significantly lower than the number killed on the Israeli side, the figure is still in single digits. Until today a ground invasion by Israel appeared imminent with Israel amassing tanks and troops on the border as well as calling up over 70,000 reservists. With the world watching the situation seemed completely out of control. Then today good news began to roll in with both sides announcing talks towards a ceasefire that would take place today or tomorrow. Unfortunately that ceasefire has not come and both sides continued shelling each other throughout today, with far more devastation occurring on the Palestinian side of the border.

The President of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, has been an important mediator in the past few days, attempting to get Israeli and Palestinian officials talking over a deal to end the violence. Although he is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, an organisation with many links to Hamas and he is very pro-Palestinian, he does not want to appear confrontational. He is trying to show support for Hamas whilst respecting the treaty with Israel, in trying to broker a peaceful solution he has invited regional players such as the Qataris and Turks to negotiate with the Israelis and Palestinians in Cairo. The ceasefire may not come for a while yet, but the most important thing he can do is to try and stop a ground invasion occurring. It would turn the international community against Israel, cause the death of hundreds, maybe thousands of innocent Palestinian civilians, and make it impossible for Egypt to maintain a relationship with Israel. The latter could further destabilise the Israel-Palestine relationship further and bring the whole region crashing down.

Nobody knows how long this conflict will last for; hopefully a ground invasion will be avoided. Regardless of when a ceasefire does happen, the situation in that region will not improve until Palestine is recognised as a sovereign state with all the protections and international recognition that nationhood affords. Peace in this region may be several centuries off, but it can never come if we never work for it. 

Israeli rockets land in Gaza
Source: Guardian

Mubarak Sentenced to Life

Many in Egypt never thought this day would come, the day when Hosni Mubarak was finally sentenced for his crimes. Today he was sentenced to life imprisonment on the charge of ordering the killing of protestors during the revolution that threw him from power. When the verdict was announced it was met with jubilation from the friends and family of those killed in the revolution. Despite the good start to the day things began to turn sour after six senior ministry of interior officials were acquitted of all crimes. Of these people, two were Mubarak’s sons. The fury spilled onto Tahrir Square as people protested the acquittals, for many of these people the only sentence strong enough is the death penalty for all involved – including those acquitted.

Yet despite the disappointment at Mubarak’s sons and friends’ acquittal today is still a landmark day in Egyptian politics. Today proves that people can triumph over power and against all the odds to make change for the better. Although the future for Egypt is not yet clear, at least now there is a faint glimmer of hope. Hopefully Egypt will be a success, just like the success of Eastern Europe after getting rid of its dictators in the early 1990s.

Hosni Mubarak meets his fate with an emotionless face

The Revolution Has Ended

Over the past couple of days Egyptians have gone to the polls to vote for a new president. This is the first time that Egyptians have been able to elect their head of state in their country’s long history. Currently votes are being counted and it looks like there is a three way split between the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Mohammed Morsi, Hosni Mubarak’s (the previous president who was ousted by the revolution) most recent Prime Minister, Ahmed Shafiq and the leftist, Hamdeen Sabahy. Although turnout was very low at only 47% it is still an amazing moment in Egyptian politics as it looks like democracy may finally come to Egypt. If democracy succeeds in Egypt it will have a remarkable impact on the region, Egypt is the largest Arab country and is a close ally to the West and the only Muslim country to try and broker peace with Israel.

A spokesman for Shafiq has claimed that “The revolution has ended” thanks to the election, although many activists believe that it will only end when the military gives up its power. Yet it still is a watershed moment and will hopefully mark the beginning of democracy in Egypt.

There is a fear that Egypt may not take well to democracy and end up lapsing back into dictatorship, the extremist side of Islam will certainly try and take hold of Egypt. Let’s hope they don’t succeed. Egypt’s minority Coptic Christian community fear that a Muslim Brotherhood President will ignore their religious liberties and impose sections of Sharia law on Egypt. If Egypt’s democracy is going to succeed the West need to help prop up the regime against the forces that will try and destroy it.

An Egyptian women casts a vote in the election

A Year of Revolution and Protest

 This year was the year the world rebelled. It started with the Arab Spring, with every Arab country experiencing some sort of unrest. The Arab Spring would later inspire the Occupy Movement and the protests in Moscow.

It all began with a street vendor in Tunisia, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in protest to the police taking away his wares. Although he later died, his action sparked major protests in Tunisia which saw the overthrow of the President. These revolutionary protests later swept through the Arab world, overthrowing Egypt’s government and causing civil war in Libya which resulted in Colonel Gaddafi being killed. Revolts in Bahrain were crushed by Bahraini police and Saudi Arabian troops. A Bahraini commissioned report accused the government of committing human rights violations. The fact that this report got published is hopefully the first signs of reform. Protests in Syria are still on-going though and the government continues to crackdown harshly on protests. With China and Russia blocking any moves towards a UN resolution, it is difficult to estimate when or how the current stalemate will end.

A map of the Arab Spring.

Navy indicates government overthrown

Dark blue indicated sustained civil disorder and governmental changes

Light blue indicates protests and governmental changes

Orange indicates major protests

Sand-like colour indicates minor protests

Protests were not confined to the Arab world; many other countries experienced the Occupy movement. It started out on Wall Street, but it did not take long for the protests to go global with Occupy movements springing up in London, Hong Kong, Rio de Janeiro and hundreds of other cities. The movement protests against the inequalities that exist in society. Slogans such as “We are the 99%” prompted many important questions for politicians to answer. The slogan comes from the fact that the richest 1% of people earn a disproportionate amount of money, in the USA the 1% earn around 40% of the entire nations wealth! This won’t be an easy battle for the Occupy movement; it would only take a few of the 1% to launch an effective propaganda campaign against the movement. But it would be wrong to brand all of the 1% as elites; Bill Gates is a well-known philanthropist who donates much of his money to charity work across the globe and there are many more like him.

Another major protest in 2011 was in Russia, after the state elections in December around 50,000 people crowded onto an island near the Kremlin and accused the elections of being rigged. This was despite the fact that the government had suffered severe losses in the elections. Despite this, European and American officials who watched over the elections supported the protesters’ view that the elections had been rigged in favour of the Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s party. The protests in Moscow were the biggest since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 90s. With Putin looking to run for presidency this has certainly damaged his chances.

With many of these protests still on going, 2012 will also be an important for many countries in both the Arab world and beyond.

Crowds in Tahrir Square, Cairo.