Weak, Weak, Weak

“Weak, weak, weak” is a famous quote from Tony Blain in the 1990s when he was criticising John Major’s government. I believe this is also an attack that could be levelled at the current government. Today the government did its third U-turn in a week, this time on the issue of capping the amount of tax relief available for charitable donations.

The tax was met with anger from charities and philanthropists alike; they were worried that the new law would reduce charitable donations considerably. This was one of many unpopular measures in the budget that have since been chucked in the bin.

Although I am very glad that the government has performed the U-turn, I do believe that is shows just how weak the government is. It doesn’t seem to understand the public mood and lacks a sense of direction and confidence. It would appear that the public pressure surrounding Jeremy Hunt is the only area on which Cameron and the government has remained steadfast, which is very unusual.

Unless the coalition sorts itself out both parties will not have any hope of achieving electoral success in 2014. The public are recognising that the coalition is extremely weak and incompetent, if they do not sort out this mess then Labour will clean up at the next election.

The Fate of Europe in the Hands of the Irish

Polls in Ireland have just closed, turnout looks like it is extremely low possibly below 50%. The no campaign is led mainly by Sinn Fèin, whereas most of the political establishment is rallying behind the yes campaign, including the government and most of the opposition.

The no camp argues that agreeing to this is basically handing over Ireland’s independence to bureaucrats in Brussels and Berlin. Many on that side also believe that the limits on a budget deficit would prevent Ireland from leaving austerity and recession; they believe that the Irish government should be spending to create jobs and eventually help Ireland recover.

The yes camp believes that by voting for the new treaty will allow Ireland to get a second bailout from Europe, should it ever need it. They mostly also believe that austerity is the way to get Ireland out of the crisis and a budget deficit will not help Ireland’s economy grow.

So the results tomorrow will be waited on patiently across Europe and indeed the world, if Ireland votes no it will be difficult to grasp the magnitude. As Ireland is in the Eurozone it will make things more difficult for Merkel and other austerity leaders. It will also be welcomed in Greece, as this may prompt a new and more lenient treaty that would be of great benefit to Greece.

Hunt Admits his Bias

Jeremy Hunt has appeared at the Leveson Inquiry today to answer questions on his media policy. The day primarily focused on his bias in favour of the News Corp takeover of BSkyB, it has been a difficult day for the government. Despite what has emerged today David Cameron is still confident that Hunt “did not break the ministerial code”.

One of the more worrying concerns is texts sent by Hunt to a number of people, including James Murdoch and George Osborne. The texts were sent on the day that Vince Cable was stripped of his right to oversee the BSkyB takeover, the texts clearly demonstrate that Hunt was completely biased in favour of the News Corp takeover and shot not, therefore, be handed the responsibility of overseeing it.

Here is a timeline of the texts that day:

12:00: News Corp is given the go-ahead by the European Commission in Brussels to buy the remaining shares of BSkyB. The EU competition commissioner, Joaquín Almunia said “I am confident that this merger will not weaken competition in the United Kingdom.”

12:46: Jeremy Hunt texts James Murdoch, “sorry to miss your call. [I] am on my mobile now.”

12:52: Murdoch texts Hunt, “Have to run into next thing. Are you free anything after 14:15? I can shuffle after this.”

[Murdoch and Hunt arrange to meet at 16:00]

12:57: Hunt tests Murdoch, “Great and congrats on Brussels. Just Ofcom to go.”

14:30 The full transcript of the interview between undercover reporters and Vince Cable is published by the BBC’s business correspondent Robert Peston. The report includes some information that the Daily Telegraph had not published.

15:56: News Corp issues a statement saying that they are “shocked and dismayed” by the reports of Cable’s comments. “They [the comments] raise serious questions about fairness and due process.”

16:00: Hunt and Murdoch talk briefly on the phone about Cable’s comments.

16:08 Hunt texts Osborne, “could we chat about Murdoch Sky big? I am seriously worried we are going to screw this up.”

16:08: Hunt texts Osborne, “Just been called by James. His lawyers are meeting now and saying it calls into question legitimacy of whole process from beginning. ‘acute bias’. etc.”

16:10: Hunt email to Coulson, “Could we chat about this? I am seriously worried Vince Cable will do real damage to coalition with his comments.”

16:58: Osborne text to Hunt “I hope you like the solution.”

17:45: Vince Cable is stripped of his responsibility over the BSkyB bid and it is handed over to Jeremy Hunt.

I find it impossible to understand how the government does not believe they did anything wrong when appointing Jeremy Hunt, even with hindsight. Cameron stripped Cable of his responsibility due to bias and handed to Hunt, who was also known to be biased… but in the opposite direction. The fact that Hunt texted Osborne with before Cable had been removed from the BSkyB bid process shows that Osborne and Cameron knew that Hunt was biased. They have no excuse, it is an absolute disgrace.

I agree with parts of the media that call Hunt “the Minister for Murdoch.”

The Never-Ending Woes of the Eurozone

The never-ending Eurozone crisis has reached a new low today with the cost of borrowing for Spain rising to almost record levels, just a whisker below 6.7%. Tomorrow is also going to be an important day for the Eurozone, the Irish are going to the polls tomorrow to vote in a referendum on the new EU fiscal compact treaty. If the Irish reject the treaty, it will send shockwaves throughout Europe likely destabilising Greece and Spain even more.

More discussion has focused on the likelihood of Greece leaving the Eurozone. The Economist Paul Krugman who has written a book on, what he calls, an economic depression is becoming increasingly visible. He claims that a Greek exit would be “awful” for the world economy and that Greece may never recover, he believes that the austerity imposed on Greece and other Eurozone countries simply is not working. In the UK he is calling for the government to use the record low borrowing costs to borrow money to fund infrastructure projects and help to boost the economy.

Krugman has claimed that the crisis will send the world economy into chaos and he believes that if the leaders of Europe want the euro to survive there must be some form of political union. Although this appears unimaginable it does make sense, a political union would make it easier to spread the wealth around and allow Greece and Spain to become competitive again.

So what are the risks for the UK? Well we have very little exposure to Greece itself, but the fear of contagion if Greece defaults or leaves the Eurozone puts us at bigger risk. The exposure to Italy and Spain for Barclays, RBS and HSBC is about €10 billion each, but RBS’ exposure to the Eurozone as a whole is €70 billion. If Greece defaults and leaves the Eurozone it will have catastrophic consequences for the Eurozone. Krugman believes that unless Merkel and the Germans concede defeat and allow the Greeks to have more lenient austerity a Greek default is inevitable. 

US economist Paul Krugman

Brutal Murders at Houla

The anger of the international community is still rising after the Houla massacre last Saturday in which over 100 people are now confirmed to have been killed.

The killings have confirmed what many feared (including myself) that the ceasefire would turn out to be nothing but a farce. It is the biggest post-ceasefire attack and has caused many on the international stage to turn further against Assad and his regime. Since the rising began Russia and China have both vetoed two UN Security Council resolutions on Syria. Since the Houla massacre Russia is appearing to try and distance itself from the Assad regime, supporting a resolution condemning the regime for the attacks.

In the United States to, things appear to be changing. Today the USA expelled Syrian ambassadors, joining much of the EU (including Britain and France) as well as Australia and Canada, further putting strain on the Assad regime and reducing its legitimacy even further. Romney is also pressing Obama to be more forceful on the issue of Syria. Yet Obama knows that America is a war weary nation, and intervention in Syria isn't all that popular with his party or independents. At the same time Obama does not want to seem weak and unable to handle foreign affairs. It also doesn't help him that US military leaders have warned the Syrians that they may face military action if the massacres continue.

The bodies of the victims being buried

The Government of U-Turns

The government has performed a U-turn once again on the budget, this time it is on the “pasty tax” and the caravan tax. Originally the government intended to extend VAT to pasties, sausage rolls and other cold food sold in bakeries. This type of food is eaten by many working class people at lunch and helped to re-enforce the image that the government, particularly George Osborne and David Cameron, are out of touch with the public. The proposed caravan tax didn’t help either, originally the government had intended to introduce VAT at 20% on static caravans (ones that do not move), this got strong opposition from Tory backbenchers, the caravan building industry and holiday makers. They claimed that introducing the tax could have cost up to 7000 jobs whilst again re-enforcing the image that the government was out of touch as people who could afford to buy a holiday home wouldn’t have to pay tax, whereas those who could only afford a caravan would have to pay tax. Now the government has decided to introduce VAT at only 5%.

The U-turns have been praised by the Tory backbenchers, but the issue has still damaged the government. The image after the budget is still going to be one of an out of touch government unable to understand the ordinary people. The U-turn isn’t the government’s first either, the coalition has performed many of them in their first two years in office and likely there will be many more. Every U-turn makes the government seem weak and possessing no sense of direction.

There are other unpopular measures in the budget, the “granny tax” and the tax cut for the wealthy. The budget from Hell and the recent return to recession is why Labour has managed to gain an eight point lead over the Conservatives. Although this does not mean that Labour can gloat just yet, it’s a long time until the next general election.

Blair at Leveson

Today former Prime Minister Tony Blair appeared at Leveson Inquiry. It was interesting to watch Blair being questioned on his relationship with the press, but on the whole nothing scandalous or shocking was revealed. Probably the most shocking part was when a protester entered the courtroom and started to accuse Blair of war crimes. The protester was quickly removed from the courtroom and not seen again.

Blair claimed that he did not do a deal with the Murdochs to get power and once in power went against the Murdochs’ wishes more times than he went along with them and claimed that there was nothing out of the ordinary about phoning Rupert Murdoch in the ten days before the Iraq War in 2003. He claimed that he had problems with the Daily Mail, calling it a “personal vendetta” as it frequently attacked his family, particularly Cherie, and he found that difficult to deal with. Blair said he did not believe the attacks on his family were “real journalism”. Blair told the Inquiry that between 2006 and 2011 his family lawyers had sent 30 letters of complaint to the Daily Mail concerning stories about Cherie.

“The Daily Mail… have attacked me, my family, my children, those people associated with me, day in, day out. Not merely when I was in office but subsequent to it as well. They do it very well, very effective. It’s very powerful.”

When asked about why he didn’t tackle the press Blair said he would be unable to do so as it would have opened up the wrath of the press and attempting to tackle the power of the press would have taken up a sizeable portion of government time and side-lined other, more important issues.

“My view is, and I think it’s still my view actually, that you would have had to clear the desk, this would have been an absolute major confrontation. You would have had virtually every part of the media against you in doing it. And I felt that the price you would pay for that would push out a lot of the things I cared more about.” He said it would be “A long, protracted battle that will shove everything else to the side”

Although he acknowledges the political difficulties of doing so he says that now is the time to tackle the press, in the wake of the hacking scandal and the Leveson Inquiry it would be possible and the public would be prepared to listen. Blair has urged politicians across the board to support Cameron if he tried to tackle the press as he cannot be left alone to do this.

Blair at the Leveson Inquiry yesterday

Syria Bloodshed Continues

Even though a ceasefire has (supposedly) been running for almost two months now there is still quite a lot of bloodshed. Yesterday came the most horrific attack since the ceasefire began on the 12th of April, 90 people were killed in a regime-backed massacre. Of those 90 people, 32 were children. The massacre has provoked international outrage and has caused fear that this may end the ceasefire, with a return to the hostilities commencing.

Although Syria has not been peaceful since the ceasefire began, the killings have been of a more sporadic nature and were nothing compared to the brutality of the fighting just days before the ceasefire began. The atrocity yesterday poses important questions for the international community about what to do about Syria, if the ceasefire isn't working - what can we do? A military intervention has been ruled out by most countries, including the West as well as Russia and China. Would tougher sanctions actually work?

The only other real option is arming the rebels, and that wouldn't be easy. Unlike in Libya when it was clear who the rebels actually were, in Syria it is difficult to know who the revolutionaries are. Although there is the Free Syrian Army, they are a secretive group and nobody knows who is in charge. The rebels also do not control a sizeable portion of the country like the Libyan revolutionaries did in Misrata and Benghazi and there are fears that they guns provided could be later turned on minority communities.

Whatever the answer to the Syrian crisis is, it won't be a simple one. But the international community must act soon if they want to prevent the butchering of more innocent Syrian civilians.

The Revolution Has Ended

Over the past couple of days Egyptians have gone to the polls to vote for a new president. This is the first time that Egyptians have been able to elect their head of state in their country’s long history. Currently votes are being counted and it looks like there is a three way split between the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate, Mohammed Morsi, Hosni Mubarak’s (the previous president who was ousted by the revolution) most recent Prime Minister, Ahmed Shafiq and the leftist, Hamdeen Sabahy. Although turnout was very low at only 47% it is still an amazing moment in Egyptian politics as it looks like democracy may finally come to Egypt. If democracy succeeds in Egypt it will have a remarkable impact on the region, Egypt is the largest Arab country and is a close ally to the West and the only Muslim country to try and broker peace with Israel.

A spokesman for Shafiq has claimed that “The revolution has ended” thanks to the election, although many activists believe that it will only end when the military gives up its power. Yet it still is a watershed moment and will hopefully mark the beginning of democracy in Egypt.

There is a fear that Egypt may not take well to democracy and end up lapsing back into dictatorship, the extremist side of Islam will certainly try and take hold of Egypt. Let’s hope they don’t succeed. Egypt’s minority Coptic Christian community fear that a Muslim Brotherhood President will ignore their religious liberties and impose sections of Sharia law on Egypt. If Egypt’s democracy is going to succeed the West need to help prop up the regime against the forces that will try and destroy it.

An Egyptian women casts a vote in the election

(Another) Scandal for Hunt

Yesterday was a bad day for David Cameron and the Culture, Media and Sports Secretary, Jeremy Hunt. In December 2011 Jeremy Hunt was handed the task of deciding whether or not News Corporation should be allowed to purchase the remaining shares of BSkyB, of which they already owned 39%.  Jeremy Hunt was only handed this quasi-judicial role after it had been taken from the Business Secretary, Vince Cable, who was deemed unsuitable to perform the job by the PM.  The problem was that Cable had been caught by journalists saying he had “declared war on the Murdochs” and would not let their company, News Corp, take over the remaining shares of BSkyB. As the decision was supposed to be taken in a quasi-judicial fashion Cameron decided it would be inappropriate to allow Cable to make this decision. So the job was handed to Hunt instead, what is uncomfortable for Cameron is that a month prior to his decision to give the job to Hunt, due to Cable’s strong views, Hunt had emailed Cameron saying that blocking the bill would cause “our media sector to suffer for years” and that “I think it would be totally wrong to cave into the Mark Thompson/Channel 4/Guardian line that this represents a substantial change of control given that we all know Sky is controlled by News Corp now anyway.”

The issue here is that, if Vince Cable was inappropriate due to already strong views on the subject, why was Hunt appropriate considering he also had strong views? This is not going to help the current government’s image as one that is too close to the Murdochs.

Romney attempts to solve his Hispanic Problem

Mitt Romney is attempting to attract Hispanic voters with a new campaign advert specifically targeted towards Hispanics. The advert is in Spanish and is Romney’s first serious attempt to woo Hispanics. Recently released census information shows that currently there are more babies of minority background (such as black and Hispanic) than whites for the first time, the Republicans and Romney needed to begin wooing such voters or they could find themselves locked out of the White House for a long time.

Some polls put Romney at a distant 14% amongst Hispanic voters, even the highest estimates put him below 30%. The main reason for this poor performance is due to the Primary campaign for this year’s Republican nomination, the campaign was the first since the Tea Party took hold of the House of Representatives. The campaign saw each of the candidates attempt to run to the right of each other. The result was that they were all very anti-immigrant, Romney himself opposing the American Dream Act which would have enabled children of illegal immigrants to go to college and praising Arizona’s controversial “papers please!” law, which many view as racist.

The hard right turn taken by the Republicans this year is not the only reason for poor polling amongst Hispanic voters. The Republican Party has long struggled to take their votes, in the USA Hispanics tend to be poorer than their white counterparts, for this reason they tend to be more Liberal on issues such as welfare and the role of government.

If Romney is to win the general election in November he will have to take a significant proportion of the Hispanic vote or it is difficult to see him win. 

G8 Summit Crucial in Greek Crisis

The G8 meet in Camp David, Maryland, United States today. The group represents the eight most powerful industrialised nations; Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom and United States as well as a representative from the EU. Also attending some of the G8 meetings are Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa. The main focus of the meeting will be is the world’s 35^th largest economy: Greece. Obama (who is President of the G8 this year) is urging European leaders to come to an agreement to try and sort out Europe’s failing economy. Obama believes that what happens in Europe is extraordinarily important.

The G8 summit is the first meeting between Obama and Hollande, both presidents are advocates of stimulus to try and create jobs and boost economic growth. Obama calls for the focus in Europe to move away from austerity and towards the stimulus, the Eurozone is a huge trading partner for the United States and any serious trouble would throw America’s recovery off course. Obama has called on a stimulus specifically for Greece, but America will not provide a cent of this money; he believes the Germans must pay for this. Hollande and Obama are hoping that they will be able to persuade Merkel and the Germans to re-orientate Europe away from austerity.

Although Greece and the Eurozone’s woes will be the main focus of the meeting also on the table are the likes of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the possibility of releasing oil reserves to keep the price of petrol down. Despite this there is no doubt that Greece will dominate the talks.

G8 Countries in Dark Green (EU in light green)
courtesy of wikipedia

Mladic Trial Suspended

Mladic’s trial in the Hague has been suspended indefinitely. The problem was the prosecution hadn’t fully disclosed the evidence that they were going to use; the defence has demanded that they get six months to look over the new evidence. It wasn’t an intentional error on behalf of the prosecution, rather just a clerical oversight, but one that embarrasses the prosecution and international justice. The Tribunal published a letter on Tuesday which was sent from the prosecutors to the defence lawyers, in it the letter says that the missing documents were not uploaded onto an electronic database which was accessible to Mladic’s lawyers. “We sincerely apologise for the inconvenience that these missing materials may have caused you” the letter said.

But now this may cause the prosecution dearly, any delay in Mladic’s trial means that he will spend less time when he is convicted (he is unlikely to be found innocent considering the weight of evidence against him) . When the trial does get under way eventually, it will mark the end-point to Europe’s worst conflict since WWII and hopefully the last serious conflict for Europe. As the zone of integration expands, with Turkey, Albania, Serbia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro all applying for membership of the EU (Croatia accedes next year) war will become increasingly unlikely. When Mladic and his counterparts die in prison, then Europe will have cleansed itself and will finally become a continent of peace.

Mladic on Trial

Ratko Mladic has gone on trial in The Hague, he is accused of carrying out crimes against humanity during the Balkans Conflicts of the 1990s. Mladic was a general of the Bosnian-Serb army, during the war the army carried out mass murders of Muslims, most notorious is the Srebrenica massacre of 1995 in which over 8,000 Muslim men and boys were butchered by the Serb army. Not only was Mladic a general of the army that carried this out, but he was in Srebrenica whilst it happened. The massacre wasn’t just on one day, it took place over 11 days. Most people believe that he ordered these attacks, and even if he did, he allowed them to happen. Whatever the decision of his role, he should be thrown in prison and never, ever released. Mladic is also responsible for the 40 month siege of Sarajevo in which the city was shelled ruthlessly and around 10,000 people were killed.

As Mladic’s trial continues the world will watch with bated breath, in the hopes that this man will be punished for his horrific crimes.

The Brooks Arrested!

Yesterday Rebekah Brooks, along with her husband Charlie Brooks and four others were charged with perverting the course of justice. In a statement made yesterday Charlie said his wife had been the “victim of a witch hunt” (I find this hilariously ironic, considering the sheer volume of witch hunts that Rebekah Brooks has started during her time at Murdoch’s company) and Rebekah claiming that the decision to charge her was “unjust and weak”.

So what have they been charged with? Well Rebekah has been charged with three counts of perverting the course of justice. The alleged crimes occurred between the 6^th and the 19^th of July 2011, Brooks and her counterparts are accused of trying to conceal evidence from the police, all of which they strongly deny. Here’s a quick time line of some of the events of that period

4^th of July – The Guardian reveals that NOTW hacked Milly Dowler’s phone

5^th of July – It is revealed that Madeleine McCann’s parents, 7/7 victims’ families were also hacked

6^th of July – Cameron promised to open an enquiry (Now Leveson)

7^th of July – NOTW closes

8^th of July – Andy Coulson Arrested

15^th of July – Rebekah Brooks resigned as CEO of News International

17^th of July – Brooks arrested and released on police bail

19^th of July – Brooks appeared in front of a Commons Select Committee

The second charge relates to Rebekah Brooks and her PA, Cheryl Carter, who are accused of removing, permanently, seven boxes of material from News International between the 6^th and the 9^th of July 2011. The final charge relates to the final four days of the period (15^th – 19^th of July), they are all charged of trying to conceal documents, computers and other electronic equipment from the Metropolitan Police.

Although these are only charges, and the suspects are presumed innocent until proven otherwise, it’s still extremely embarrassing for the government. David Cameron once socialised with people who are being charged with a very serious crime.

Rebekah and Charlie Brooks making a statement yesterday

The Continuing Greek Tragedy

The crisis in Greece continues as the three main parties have failed to thrash out a coalition agreement. They have agreed that another general election will be held in the coming weeks, this election is completely unpredictable with some experts believe that after voting for anti-bailout parties in the last election, people will move back to the centre. Yet most experts believe that the anti-bailout parties will gain more ground the next time the Greeks go to the polls.

SYRIZA leader, Alex Tsipras

If the Germans and Brussels want to avoid the anti-bailout parties winning they must negotiate ASAP with the pro-bailout parties, give them some concessions. Then PASOK and New Democracy can go to the voters and tell them that the bailout can still work, in the hopes of marginalising SYRIZA. The reality is, if SYRIZA were able to form an anti-bailout party after the next general election, then Greece would almost certainly go bust and have to leave the Euro which would have devastating affects around the EU. Spain, where borrowing is almost unsustainable already, would need a bailout immediately and any chance of a recovery in Ireland or Portugal would be out of the question. Likely Greece would drag the rest of the world back into recession. This could result in a break-up of the Euro and a destruction of the economies of the PIIGS countries, this could be worse for Germany than many other countries, as Germany’s central bank has lent €644 billion euros to other European central banks and a break-up of the Euro would mean that it wouldn't get most of that money back. Germany must defend Greece from financial collapse, otherwise the country will suffer the consequences.

Mexican Drug Cartels

Dozens of mutilated bodies have turned up in Mexico, it epitomises the tragedies that have been occurring over the past six years of Mexico’s drug wars. Since the crackdown on illegal drug cartels in Mexico in 2006, 54,000 people have lost their lives, 16,000 last year alone. What the government is trying to do is stop the illegal trafficking of drugs from Latin America, through Mexico and up into the United States. Due to the geography of the Americas, all land-based drug routes to the USA have to pass through Mexico.

Despite the heavy losses incurred by both sides, successes have been recorded for the government, since the crackdown began over 120,000 cartel members have been detained and 8,500 people have been convicted, but it is not good enough. To properly defeat the massively powerful drug cartels Mexico is going to need help, and not just from the United States, there must be massive amounts of money flooded into the Mexican authorities if these drug cartels are to be defeated. It won’t be easy and it won’t be done overnight, but it can [and hopefully will] work.

The United States is already helping Mexico out, the US has recognised the benefits to America if drug trafficking from Mexico can be reduced, US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton said in 2009 “Our [America’s] insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade” and that “the United States bears shared responsibility for the drug-fuelled violence sweeping Mexico.”

The Mexican War on Drugs has not been easy but the government must continue its “war” if Mexico is to move closer to being a fully developed nation, it’s already well on its way.

Coulson & Brooks at Leveson

The past couple of days will have been hotly anticipated in number 10, the former communications director for No.10, Andy Coulson appeared at the Leveson Enquiry on Thursday. Rebekah Brooks, former CEO of News International and good friend of David Cameron appeared yesterday.  Unfortunately they were not able to talk about phone hacking as they are both on police bail after being arrested in relation to the hacking scandal.

Coulson is particularly important as he was hired by David Cameron to be the communications director for him; he was sounded out by George Osborne. He told the enquiry that his hiring was not part of some grand scheme to get Cameron closer to the Murdochs, although I’d be extremely surprised if this never crossed Cameron’s mind. What is important to note is that Coulson had £40,000 of shares in News International, something he should have declared when he took office in the government, yet he never did claiming he was ‘too busy’ and didn’t notice the personal benefit to himself if News International did well, making him totally inappropriate as the government’s communications director. Coulson told the enquiry that even after the hacking scandal was blown wide open by the Guardian David Cameron, nor any other member of the government, questioned him on his knowledge of phone hacking despite the widening public interest in his part.

Rebekah Brooks caused more problems for the government, she told the enquiry that how after she was arrested she received messages of support from No.10, No.11, the Home Office and the Foreign Office. This reveals just how close the Murdoch press got to the very heart of government. She admitted that David Cameron had indirectly contacted her with a message that went along the lines of “I would have been more loyal to you had Ed Miliband not been on my tail”. What was even worse for the government was an email recovered from Brooks’ smart phone from Fred Michel [the PR man for News International] that read:

“Hunt will be making references to phone hacking in his statement on Rubicon this week. He will be repeating the same narrative as the one he gave in Parliament [a] few weeks ago. This is based on his belief that the police is pursuing things thoroughly and phone hacking has nothing to do with the media plurality issues. It’s extremely helpful… He [Hunt] wants to prevent a public inquiry.”

This is clearly bad for Hunt, Ed Miliband is already calling for his resignation (again). The email seems to suggest that Hunt was asking the Murdochs how he should handle the phone hacking scandal. I do not see Hunt being able to stay on for much longer due to this scandal.

European Woes Continue

Europe’s economy is going from bad to worse to awful. According to recently released figures the EU’s economy is expected to not grow at all over the next year whilst the Eurozone’s economy is expected to go through a mild recession. Spain is the latest centre of the European crisis, the government of Spain has done a review and has given a €30 billion bailout to some of its biggest banks. Yesterday one of the country’s largest banks, Bankia, was part-nationalised (45% of the bank belongs to the government now) this is putting a serious strain on the Spain’s finances as Spain has massive debts. The cause of most of Spain’s woes is very similar to what happened in Ireland, there was a gargantuan property bubble that burst, there are now vast wastelands of uninhabited apartments and home built by developers but never purchased. Bankia, lent €38 billion to property developers, €32 of which is currently problematic and Bankia may never receive the loans. In the entire banking system there is a colossal €184 billion of bad loans, with Spain’s unemployment rate at 25% and the youth unemployment rate at 50% austerity is going to cause massive pains for Spanish people. So will Spain need a bailout? It’s too early to tell at this stage but there is a chance it will, if it does need a bailout then it will become the fourth European economy that has received one. The problem with Spain is its economy is significantly bigger than the Portuguese, Irish or Greek economies and a Spanish bailout may put too much strain on the system

The problems in Greece are continuing there has been no government since Sunday and there isn’t going to be one until new elections are held. The third placed party PASOK tried to get a coalition going but failed, so now new elections are going to have to be held. What some of the centrist parties, and Brussels, are hoping is that after voting in the extremes on Sunday people will move back to the centre. If the polls are anything to go by, this will not be the case, the second placed party, SYRIZA will win more than any other party as it is polling 27% of the vote. If it does manage to get this amount of the vote then there is a serious chance that it will be able to form a coalition and thus a government. The problem. SYRIZA opposes the bailout, if it does manage to form a government and Greece goes bankrupt, this could have devastating effects on the global economy.  One of the biggest worries I have is the rise of Golden Dawn, hopefully their vote share will go down, but I fear this is wishful thinking.

Obama Backs Gay Marriage

“At a certain point I’ve just concluded that, for me personally it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that same sex couples should be able to marry.”

According to Obama his views on gay marriage have been ‘evolving’ overtime and yesterday they reached an end-point. Obama finally came round to backing gay marriage, his vice-president, Joe Biden, had already declared his support for same-sex marriage over the weekend. Obama is the first sitting US president to declare his support for marriage equality in the United States, Liberal commentator (and lesbian) Rachel Maddow said it was the “icing on the cake” as Obama’s record on gay rights have been very good. He has constantly supported the ending of anti-gay measures and safe guarding the rights of gay people.

Obama has placed himself on the right side of history, since 2004 (when Massachusetts became the first state to legalise same-sex marriage) support for same-sex marriage has risen significantly. In 2004 around 30% were for gay marriage and 60% were against it, a recent poll shows that now 50% of Americans support gay marriage whereas 48% are against it. This has been a colossal victory for the gay rights movement and over the next few years it will only go up. Personally I think it was very courageous of Obama to declare his support for gay marriage considering that it is an election year and there is still a large proportion of the American population that vehemently detest the idea of gay marriage, but in reality these people are almost all in the religious right who wouldn’t have voted for Obama anyway. So no big loss.

On the other side Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential hopeful has promised to introduce a constitutional amendment that bans gay marriage across the country, including in states that have already passed it. Romney has put himself fully on the wrong side of history. 

Obama on ABC revealing his support for gay marriage

The NHS ISN’T safe in our hands

Today the government has proved to us all that despite the claims that the “NHS is safe in Conservative hands”, in reality, it isn't.

For the past 19 months the Labour MP, John Healey, has campaigned for the NHS risk register to be made public. The risk register is the government’s own report into the damages its reforms would do to the NHS. Today the cabinet exercised its rare right to veto freedom of information act requests and said that the risk register would not be made public. This has infuriated many groups opposed to the Health and Social Care Bill, in a statement today the British Medical Association said “We are disappointed that the government has decided not to publish the risk register in full. As we said well before the bill became an act, it’s vital that everyone involved knows what the potential risks might be so decisions can be made based on a full understanding of what the impact might be.”

Not only has the government vetoed the request but it has lost two court rulings on this, both times the courts have ruled in favour of making the risk register public. First time it was the information commissioner and the second time it was the first tier tribunal. Rather than take it to the upper tier tribunal, the government has simply vetoed the request. When asked about the veto, Mr Healey said “The government lost twice in law, yet still won’t accept that patients and NHS staff have the right to know the risks ministers are running with the biggest ever NHS reorganisation”.

But why would the government want to hide the risk register? Surely if their reforms were going to be as great as they have said they will be there would be not need to hide the risk register as it would prove them right. Most likely the risk register has highlighted the damages that it will do to the NHS and the government doesn’t want that to be made public.  If the public ever needed proof that this government has incompetently handled the NHS then this is it. 

French and Greek Elections

Elections in Greece and France have rocked Europe today, the markets turned down as the news of a socialist president in France came in. In Greece the majority of people voted for anti-austerity parties, yet the pro-austerity party New Democracy managed to come in first. Although New Democracy came first, they did not win a majority of seats so attempted to form a coalition but was unable to. As a result it is now up to the party that came second, the “Coalition of the left” to try and form a coalition. If no party is able to form a coalition then the Greeks will have to vote again.

The Golden Dawn Logo is
very close to the Swastika

What was more worrying in the Greek elections was the rise of the neo-Nazi party, Golden Dawn which got 7% of the vote. Golden Dawn opposes the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution and supports Hellenism and Greek Orthodoxy. This bizarre party is entirely legitimate and not a comedy party as you might hope. They genuinely oppose science, modern medicine and anything remotely modern, I do believe these people are beyond reasonable discussion and I hope their rise does not go beyond 7%.

Back in France Hollande has promised Europe and alternative to austerity and that there is hope for growth and restoration of Europe’s battered economy. Despite having a radically different viewpoint to Merkel they have both stressed the importance of the Franco-German relationship and that it will always remain amicable.  Most people do believe that even though Hollande and Merkel have difference opinions they will try and work together, after all both people only want to keep the Eurozone strong and continue with the European project… They just have very different views of how to get there.

The new face of France...
and Europe?

A day of Celebration for Labour

Labour + 823

Conservatives: -405

Liberal Democrats: -336

Greens: +11

Without a doubt Thursday was a resounding success for Labour. Labour gained Birmingham and Wales, retained Glasgow but did not win London. The Labour party gained a total of 823 councillors, the Tories losing 405 and the Liberal Democrats losing 336.

Prior to the election the Conservatives were trying to inflate what Labour should win, saying that anything less than 700 councillors would be a failure. At the same time Labour was trying to downplay what would a good result would be, saying that getting 300 would be a good night. In reality both parties were probably predicting around 500 councillors for Labour, the truth was far better than anyone had expected. Labour managed to gain over 800 councillors, which prompted Ed Miliband to proclaim “Labour is back”. This has devastated the coalition, many Conservatives believe that they are being punished for being too liberal and allowing UKIP to take their voters.

Without a doubt the Lib Dems had the worst night of the three main parites. They have been reduced to the smallest number of councillors since the party was created 30 years ago. Lib Dems feel that they are being punished for being too Conservative.

Neither party appear to understand what being in coalition means.

What the government will try to do is point out that the turnout was painfully low, around one third, and it therefore isn’t a good indicator for public opinion. They also have pointed to the disappointing result for Labour in 1999, yet Tony Blair still went on to win in 2001. Yet they forget that Blair was coming off the back of a huge victory and a growing economy when people went to the polls in 1997. The Conservatives on the other hand haven’t won an election outright since 1992 and the economy has just fallen back into recession, although it is much better than the Lib Dems, who haven’t won an election outright since 1910…

Labour managed to take 38% of the vote, 2% up from last year, the Conservatives took 31%, down 4% and the Lib Dems took a measly 16%, unchanged from last year.

I will now go into the election results in each of the four areas of the UK that voted in detail; England, Scotland, Wales and London. 

Council Elections in England

Labour: + 534

Conservatives: -328

Liberal Democrats: -190

Green: +5

Without a doubt Labour did fantastically in England as a result of Thursday’s council elections, Labour gained control of 22 councils and held 39. Labour did very well in its heartland areas around Manchester and Liverpool where it added more councils, Labour also gained Carlisle in the north and Birmingham in the midlands. The great success for Labour was in the south, although the south is still Conservative the Labour party managed to attract many votes. Most importantly, Labour managed to attract votes from places that once voted Blair, but turned their backs and returned to the Conservatives in 2005 and 2010. This was something people thought “Red Ed” could never do. In the south Labour gained Southampton, Plymouth and Exeter and took four councillors in Cameron’s backyard of West Oxfordshire.

What Labour gained, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats lost. The Conservatives lost ten English councils, bringing their total to 42 whilst that Liberal Democrats lost one and held six. This hides just how devastated the Lib Dems were, they lost a total of 190 councillors across England. Does this mark an end to the Liberal Democrats in England? Who knows, the rise of the Greens and UKIP could facilitate a Lib Dem decline.

Council Elections in Scotland

Labour: +58

SNP: + 57

Conservatives: -16

Liberal Democrats: - 80

Greens: +6

Scotland went well for both Labour and the SNP, both parties made significant gains. Thankfully for Labour they managed to retain Glasgow council amongst widespread fears that they would lose overall control of Glasgow, even if the SNP didn’t manage to take control.

Labour managed to gain 58 councillors and the SNP 57, since Labour started out with fewer councillors, the percentage increase was better than the SNP. The system by which councils are elected in Scotland makes it hard for one party to gain overall control, meaning that most councils do not have one-party rule. Previous to Thursday’s election Labour had overall control in only two councils, Glasgow and North Lanarkshire, both remained under Labour control, Labour also managed to gain Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire. The SNP started off with no overall control of councils but managed to gain Angus and Dundee, much to Alex Salmond’s delight. The SNP made good gains in Aberdeenshire to strengthen their role as biggest party, but in Aberdeen a good night for Labour meant that they overtook the SNP as the council’s biggest party.

Alex Salmond was publically delighted with this result, but in private I’d imagine it would be a different story. Although Thursday was a success for him, many people, including those in his own party, predicted significantly better results than this.

The Liberal Democrats have much to feel upset about, losing 80 councillors, reducing them to just 71. The Conservatives lost 16 councillors but are happy with the result as they are now the third party in Scotland, having overtaken the Liberal Democrats.

Council Elections in Wales

Labour: +231

Conservatives: -61

Liberal Democrats: -66

Plaid Cymru: -41

Wales is undoubtedly the best result for Labour, Labour managed to gain Swansea, Cardiff, Newport and the Valleys to come out top in Wales. The Conservatives lost their two councils and Plaid Cymru lost their only council. Labour is now the only party in Wales to hold any councils, all the rest are controlled by independents or have no overall control. This has been the best council election for Labour in Wales since the system was reformed in 1996.

The election is worrying for Plaid Cymru, the party has declined over the past few years and Thursday results are devastating for them. The newly elected leader Leanne Wood has many challenges ahead for her. 

Assembly & Mayoral Elections in London

London Mayor (1^st preference)

Boris Johnson (Conservative):                  971,931                  (44.01%)

Ken Livingstone (Labour):                       889,918                  (40.30%)

Jenny Jones (Green):                               98,913                    (4.48%)

Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat):           91,774                   (4.16%)

Siobhan Benita (Independent):                 83,914                    (3.80%)

Lawrence Webb (UKIP):                        43,274                    (1.96%)

Carlos Cortiglia (BNP):                           28,751                    (1.30%)

(+2^nd preference)

Boris:     1,054,881   (51.53%)

Ken:       992,273     (48.47%)

London Assembly

Labour: 12
Conservative: 9
Liberal Democrat: 2
Green: 2

It was a mixed result in London for both Labour and the Conservatives, Boris narrowly beat Ken to be London's mayor. This result will help to ease the painful night the conservatives had on Thursday. Despite Boris' success, the Conservatives went from being the biggest party in the London Assembly to second, losing two seats to Labour. Labour now is just one seat shy of a majority in the assembly, meaning that they only need one vote from the other parties to block bills proposed by Boris or to push through their own.

It was a good night for the Greens, they became the third largest party in London, Jenny Jones, the Green candidate received 7,139 votes more than Brian Paddick, the Lib Dem candidate. As well as this the Greens have two seats in the Assembly, tied with the Liberal Democrats.

It was an excellent night for the independent Siobhan Benita, who came from nowhere to take 83,914 votes, more than UKIP and the BNP combined! For someone who nobody knew about before this election and with very little TV appearances this is very impressive. After the results came in Ms Benita said that this would not be the last we see of her and she will continue to play a part in the capital's politics.

Election Night

Yesterday was election night, but what will the results mean for the country?

There are a number of different elections going on across England, Wales and Scotland (no voting in Northern Ireland). What the majority of people consider the most important is the mayoral election in London. The mayor of London is arguably the most powerful politician outside of the cabinet in the UK and so it is very important to both Labour and the Conservatives. Last time Boris Johnson won due to his “doughnut strategy” this was whereby he targeted the London suburbs where there are more Conservatives to be found. Now aware of this strategy Ken Livingstone has also targeted these areas, his promise to cut rail fares pleases many voters in places such as Bexleyheath.

Outside of London there are also very important elections in Birmingham and Glasgow. Currently one party does not control the Birmingham city council; instead it is ruled by a coalition between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. To win Birmingham outright Labour need a swing of just 2.5%, for the Labour Party this would be particularly important as it would send out a message that the tide is turning against Conservative-Lib Dem coalitions. The results in Glasgow could be extremely important, if the SNP manage to take control of Glasgow, or at least make sure no party gets an overall majority, then it would prove a devastating blow for Labour. It would also be a phenomenal victory for the SNP and give them hope for the 2014 referendum.

Wales is looking likely to go Labour’s way, Labour hopes to prise the likes of Swansea away from the Liberal Democrats and outright win Cardiff, Labour has called on the Welsh people to “send the vicious government a message”.

If the elections were to be a great night for Labour, they’d win London, Glasgow, Birmingham and Wales outright, on an alright night they might lose London and on a bad night Birmingham would not fall there way. If Glasgow or Wales were not to vote for Labour it could mark the beginning of the end for Labour, if an alternative party were to rise.

"Murdoch Not Fit to run a Global Company"

A damning report was published today by the Culture Media and Sports Select Committee which accused Rupert Murdoch of not being a fit person to run a major global company. The report was even harsher on three of Murdoch’s “underlings”, Colin Myler, Tom Crone and Les Hinton who were accused of miss-leading MPs and could have to face the House of Commons.

Although the report is extremely damning it did not receive unanimous support from the committee, the four Conservatives voted against the report due to harsh attack on Murdoch. The report was able to pass as the five Labour members and the one Liberal Democrat member voted in favour of it. Louise Mensch is a Conservative member of the committee, in defending her decision to vote against the report on Newsnight, she appeared to think that the public would agree with her. Has she got any idea of public opinion? There is a massive anti-Murdoch swing in the general public and most people will be delighted with the report that so vilifies Murdoch. At a time when the fallout from the Jeremy Hunt scandal is deepening, this will harden the view that the Conservatives have become the party for Murdoch and could deal another blow to the Conservatives.

Although the Conservative members did vote against the report, they actually agreed with everything in the report apart from the one line. The rest of the report deals less with Murdoch and more with the lies told by Myler, Crone and Hinton to Parliament.

Murdoch must leave the UK once and for all; he still controls large parts of BSkyB and our press. The hacking scandal has created a very rare chance, for us to seize our democracy from the hands of Murdoch and return them to the people. His International Empire was founded in the UK with the Sun newspaper (which he took over), and we will be the ones to end it. Murdoch has had his time in power, the time for people power has returned.

The Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee releasing the report yesterday

A Hollande Europe?

Hollande is likely to become France’s next President after Sunday, but wider implications could a socialists rise to power have on Europe, particularly the Eurozone countries. The Dutch government has already fallen, the Spanish government is experiencing serious protests and Greece is approaching elections.

So what does Hollande have to offer to a Europe still in crisis? Most importantly he offers an alternative to fiscal austerity; he says that he will re-orientate the European economy to growth and jobs (much like what the Labour Party advocates here as well as an Obama-style stimulus) and away from harsh, growth killing budget cuts. Although he disagrees with Merkel and other north-European leaders on the policy of austerity he does believe firmly in fiscal responsibility and the Euro project. The key difference on fiscal responsibility is that Hollande believes that it should come later, that the European economy is already on a path to recovery before the government reigns necessary spending.

The centre-right currently have control over the vast majority of the European Union, they have failed epically to deal with the financial crisis. One important part of Hollande’s vision for Europe is stimulus, which is funded by borrowing. This poses one major problem; the Mediterranean countries cannot borrow at a cheap rate and would be unfeasible for them to do so. On the other hand, north European countries such as Germany and Finland have low interest rates and can borrow cheaply. I find it difficult to imagine the Germans borrowing more money to facilitate a Greek stimulus; it would be political suicide for Merkel. So although the vision of growth would be perfect for northern Europe, it would still leave the question of what to do with the Mediterranean countries and Ireland. Hollande will need to think about this if he is to solve Europe’s difficulties!