Crisis in Ukraine

By the time 2014 rolled in, Ukraine was already in the middle of mass protests. The protests, nicknamed Euromaidan, were initially in response to pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych suspending preparations for the signing of an association agreement with the EU. The harsh crackdown by the government helped to embolden the protesters, which eventually resulted in Yanukovych fleeing the country on the 22^nd of February. Many Westerners assumed that would have meant the end of unrest in Ukraine, however that could not have been further from the truth.

Pro-Russian supporters in Crimea
Source: www.bbc.co.uk/news

The ousting of pro-Russian Yanukovych outraged his supporters and the Russian minority in Ukraine. The outrage was especially concentrated in the south and east of the country, where Yanukovych had drawn much of his support in elections. Outrage was especially pronounced in Crimea, which had the largest Russian minority in Ukraine. In fact ethnic Russians actually outnumbered ethnic Ukrainians in the peninsula. By the 26^th of February pro-Russian protesters had taken control of many positions within Crimea. Many of these ‘pro-Russian protesters’ were actually Russian servicemen in disguise. Many international observers believed that this was actually orchestrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. When asked about this in April Putin seemed to confirm Western suspicions when he said that “of course Russian servicemen backed the Crimean self-defence forces.” A referendum was held on the 16^th of March on whether Crimea should join the Russian Federation. The vote (which was rigged) went overwhelmingly in favour of joining Russia, as a result Russia now considers the territory Russian, despite little international recognition.

After the remarkable success of Russia in taking Crimea, Putting turned his attention to eastern Ukraine. The eastern Oblasts (provinces) of Donetsk and Luhansk, known collectively as Donbass, have sizeable populations of ethnic Russians. However unlike Crimea, where ethnic Russians make up a majority of the population, they are only minorities in Donetsk and Luhansk. In the former they make up 38% and in the latter 39%. As a result simply taking the Oblasts would be far more difficult, and would be resisted much more by Ukraine. In early March pro-Russian militias began seizing government buildings in eastern Ukraine, many demanding independence from the country. They were remarkably similar to the protests in Crimea the previous month. Over the next six months the unrest turned into a full scale revolt with obvious, though unofficial, material support from Russia. Eventually a ceasefire was signed on the 5^th of September, which has been violated by both sides but is largely holding.

2015 will be an important year for Ukraine. Its government in Kiev is actively pursuing closer ties to Europe, whilst parts of the country are trying to separate. If Donetsk and Luhansk do break off this will be absolutely remarkable, and should worry countries with a Russian border. 

The Rise of ISIS

The Syrian Civil War has continued throughout 2014, devastating the country and spilling over into neighbouring Iraq.

The devastation and destruction of Syria by years of Civil War left the country unable to defend itself from attack by a “new” fundamentalist and Islamist terrorist group. The group is referred to by several different titles; ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), IS (Islamic State) and the Caliphate. I will be referring to it as ISIS due to the fact that currently it controls vast swathes of Iraq and Syria. Although ISIS actually formed in 1999, it was relatively unknown in the West until 2014. The group had joined Al Qaeda in 2004, but it was disavowed by Al Qaeda in February 2014 after a long power struggle between the two groups. Throughout the Syrian Civil War ISIS had been seizing parts of Syria and imposing Sharia law on the people it controlled. However in the chaos of the Syrian Civil War, its actions went largely un-noted by the Western media. That was until June when ISIS invaded neighbouring Iraq.

On the 5^th of June ISIS forces stormed over the Syria-Iraq border, intent on taking all of Iraq. By the middle of the month they had taken vast swathes of north-western Iraq with relative ease, including Iraq’s second city, Mosul.  It was rather amazing (in a horrible way) to watch as ISIS took so much territory from Iraq without much fighting. This was despite the fact that the Iraqi army hugely outnumbered the ISIS fighters. When ISIS marched on Mosul, they had less than 1,000 men whilst the Iraqi army had an impressive 60,000! The Iraqi army basically ran away so fast that they left behind expensive military equipment, including tanks and anti-aircraft weapons. I am sure ISIS was very glad of getting hold of those weapons. The reason why this happened is because of the sectarian divisions of Iraq. The northern part of Iraq follows Sunni Islam, whilst the southern part is Shia Islam. To complicate matters even more there are the Kurds in north-eastern Iraq. Although they are mostly Sunnis, their different ethnicity makes them a separate group within Iraq. Since Nouri Al-Maliki came to power in 2006 he has tried to purge Sunnis from the government and the army. As a result, when ISIS invaded northern Iraq the army defending the Sunni territory was mostly Shia. Rather than risk their lives defending Sunni territory, the Shia soldiers simply fled. The rapid advance of ISIS was somewhat halted when the group began attacking more mixed areas, as the Shia dominated army began to actually defend the territory.

Despite ISIS’s success in taking control of much of northern Iraq, they were unable to take control of Kurdistan. The military of Iraqi Kurdistan, the Peshmerga, managed to hold their territory and even take some back from ISIS. Since June Iraqi Kurdistan has been de facto independent.

On the 29^th of June ISIS declared that it was now a worldwide Caliphate and that the group’s leader, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was its first Caliph. By doing this they are claiming complete authority over all Muslims throughout the world.

Control of Iraq and Syria at the end of 2014
Red: Assad regime
Purple-red: Iraqi government
Green: Syrian rebels
Grey: ISIS
Yellows: Syrian and Iraqi Kurds
Source: wikipedia.org

The barbarity of ISIS has been revealed over the past six months. They have brutally murdered anyone who will not convert to their extremist version of Sunni Islam. At one point they declared that the Yazidis, an ethnic and religious minority in northern Iraq, were “devil worshippers” and that they would be killed. After the Kurdish Peshmerga left the mostly Yazidi city of Sinjar, many Yazidis fled with them to Kurdistan. Unfortunately the journey to Peshmerga protected Kurdistan was several days walk away and many who would not make it fled up Mount Sinjar. As ISIS forces moved to surround the mountain there were fears of a genocide of the Yazidis who were now trapped. Thankfully a combination of strategic bombing of ISIS forces, air-dropped aid packages and the help of Peshmerga forces ensured that most Yazidis managed to escape.

With the realisation that ISIS poses a real threat to both regional and international security, 28 countries have intervened in some capacity to help combat ISIS’s rise.

As things stand going into 2015, ISIS’s advance has been halted, but now the effort to push back against the organisation has to step up. As bad as Iraq has been in recent years, ISIS control would be far worse. My hope for 2015 is that ISIS gets pushed back and that countries begin to recognise Kurdistan as an independent nation.

Red: Iraq and Syria
Dark Orange: Military intervention in Iraq and Syria
Light orange: Military intervention in Iraq only
Yellow: Military intervention in Syria only
Dark Blue: Humanitarian aid
Light Blue: Military aid (no intervention)

How the World Should Deal With Israel

Israel has one again defied international law, and violated the rights of Palestinians by grabbing over 400 hectares (988 acres) of land in the West Bank. Israel made no attempt to justify its actions, it simply declared the land “state land”, and that was basically it. It is the biggest land grab in over 30 years and it comes just after Israel and Gaza reach an agreement to end 50 days of bloodshed that left almost 1,500 Gazancivilians dead!

The continued existence and expansion of the settlements is in direct violation of international law, specifically UNSC (United Nations Security Council) resolution 446. So how can we prevent further Israeli land grabbing in the West Bank? A military attack by other countries is clearly out of the question as that would result in a massive death toll on both sides. For the Palestinians, attacking Israel is a terrible idea considering how strong Israel’s military is and how weak their own military is! I feel that this means that the only option is to pursue diplomacy and peaceful protests. Here are a list of things we should do:

1.       Continue to work within the UN for diplomatic resolutions

2.       Boycott Israel (don’t buy Israeli products)

3.       Pressure your government to sanction Israel

4.       Peacefully protest in the West Bank/Israel

1. One of the most effective ways of doing diplomacy in the modern world is through the UN. It can be used as a mediator in disputes, condemns human rights violations, and membership of the organisation is the most commonly accepted definition of a country. Unfortunately there is a major stumbling block at the UN: America. The US is a permanent member of the UNSC, which means that it can veto any resolution that the council votes on. This means that going through the Security Council would be very difficult for Palestine, due to America’s unconditional support for Israel. It also means that Palestine is unlikely to become a full UN member anytime soon, as the process to become a full member requires a Security Council resolution.  

2. A boycott of Israeli products would be a great step, as hurting a country’s economy is one of the best ways you can make its leaders more amiable to a peace deal. The sanctions on South Africa were a major reason for the Apartheid state collapsing. As an individual it can be quite difficult to find out where all your products originate. So what you should do instead is try and pressure companies into no longer stocking products that are from Israel. If you are in the UK visit www.boycottisrael.org.uk for more information on how to boycott Israel.

3. Arguably the best thing you can do, if you live outside Palestine, is to put pressure on your government to take a stance against Israel. Whether that comes in the form of sanctions or an arms embargo, it would be hugely beneficial to the Palestinian cause, especially if your country is powerful. If you live in America this will be more difficult, as it is the most pro-Israeli western nation. Yet being a pro-Palestinian voice can do a lot of good, and change only happens when people demand it! The countries in which you can do the most good are ones with a pro-Israeli government and an anti-Israeli populace. Which countries fall under that category? Well every Western nation, apart from the US. Britain is arguably the easiest target, as of the EU countries polled, Britain had the most negative view of Israel (72% of Britons had an unfavourable view). Considering that the UK is one of the most powerful countries in the world, and has one of the largest economies, having the UK on the side of Palestinians would be a blow to Israel. So what are you waiting for? Write to, or call your MP/representative and get things going!

4. Peacefully protesting your oppressors is not an easy thing to do, and it takes a lot of courage, but it is the best way to win. Part of the reason for the success of Martin Luther King and the civil rights protesters in America in the 50’s and 60’s, other than the obvious morality of their cause, was the images of peaceful protesters getting violently beaten by police officers. Protest by getting Palestinians to enter settlements or march on cities like Jerusalem. Whatever you do, do not attack Israel. Violence rarely succeeds when you’re being oppressed. Every time Hamas fires a rocket into Israeli territory, or a bomb goes off in Tel Aviv, it gives Israel a justification to attack. They always lose the moral high ground with the disproportionate counter attacks. According to a YouGov poll, 62% of Britons believe that Israel committed war crimes in the recent Gaza conflict. Despite this, it allows Israel defenders to ignore the hardships of the Palestinians, because Hamas is also targeting Israel.

Using peaceful solutions will not be easy, and it will not be quick, but as you have the moral high ground, you will win.

Horrific Violence in Ukraine

Violence has descended upon the streets of Ukraine once more, as clashes between police and protesters worsened. So far 26 people have been killed, 14 of them protesters and 12 police.

This is absolutely horrific, especially considering that just last week there were hopes of a deal. Protesters had agreed to leave some parliament buildings, in exchange the government would grant amnesty to the protesters. At the moment we don’t know whose fault it is for the violence, as both sides blame each other. Yet in the ensuing chaos it’s pretty clear that the government side has acted a lot worse. They have repeatedly broken promises they made and even set a building on fire, forcing people to jump out of buildings to escape the flames!

It was hoped that a truce agreed yesterday would give the politicians a chance to agree to something more long term. Unfortunately that truce has broken down thanks to the government. It didn't even last 24 hours! Today alone at least 17 protesters have been killed according to the BBC! This raises the total killed this week to 43, 31 of them protesters.

The only way out is for fresh elections, and if the government wins then I would be in favour of ending the Euromaidan protests. The current president, Viktor Yanukovych, won the highly dubious 2010 election with barely 3% more than his opponent. Some people would argue that as he won that election, that the protesters should simply wait until the next election in 2015, after all he was democratically elected! The problem with this argument is that Ukraine is not a stable democracy like Britain or America. This makes it more vulnerable to destruction. Four years may not appear like enough time to turn a democracy into a dictatorship, but remember: it only took Hitler two.

Thankfully the West has decided to act, America is preparing to impose sanctions and the EU is probably going to in the next few days. This has angered the Ukrainian and Russian governments who hope to crush the opposition. Russia’s foreign ministry blamed the West’s “conniving politics” for the protests. The great irony is: it was Russia’s ‘conniving politics’ that was the cause of the protests in the first place!

One of the many injured people
Source: BBC

What the World Holds in 2014 - A Prediction

So that’s my review of 2013 over, obviously there were numerous stories that I missed. The horsemeat scandal that gripped Europe, elections in Japan and Germany, and the birth of Prince George. The biggest news story that I missed was documenting the progress within Iran. I was planning on writing more reviews, but revision for exams has cute into the amount of time I can afford to spend blogging. Perhaps when I finish exams I’ll do a few more reviews of 2013.

The point of this post is to predict what will happen to the world in 2014. The number in red is the amount of predictions I’ve made in the paragraph.

Pro-gay rights athletes will be arrested in Sochi during the Winter Olympics. Of the 100s of athletes attending, it seems unlikely that nobody will protest. Expect tensions to rise between the West and Russia. [1]

The European elections will be a mixed bag as the likes of France jump to the rights whilst Britain and several other countries jump to the left. I predict that Nick Griffin will lose his seat and Labour will have the largest MEP delegation from Britain. In France Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP will have the most MEPs, followed by Marine Le Pen’s National Front. This will leave President François Hollande’s Socialist Party in third place.  [5]

Scotland will vote to remain in the union, although the vote will be closer than most unionists would like [1]

Scotland will also legalise same-sex marriage, as will Luxembourg and the Faroe Islands. Michigan and Virginia, by court ruling, will legalise same-sex marriage through the courts, whilst Ohio and Oregon will legalise it through ballot initiatives. The Supreme Court will reject Utah’s appeal, keeping same-sex marriage legal in that state. [8]

The November elections in the US will be mixed. Republicans will make a net gain in the Senate but will fall short of enough to take control. Little will change in the House of Representatives. Democrats will make a net gain in the governorship. [4] I’ll do a more in depth post about this later this month or in early February.

The bloodshed in Syria will continue, and by the end of 2014 nothing much will have changed unfortunately. There will be no Western military intervention in Syrian affairs. [2]

Obamacare will become more popular as its positive effects are felt. By the end of the year it will have a positive approval rating [1]

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts will continue to gain popularity within the Democratic Party. She will eat away at Hilary Clinton’s lead in 2016 polls. New York City Mayor, Bill deBlasio, will gain national attention, also resulting in him being touted for a 2016 Presidential run. [2]

If I were to guess one person who is likely to die in 2014, I would chose President George H.W. Bush. We already know that he is in poor health and turns 90 this June. People who could also die this year include the Duke of Edinburgh, after all he turns 93 this June and had a number of health scares in 2013. Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej has had numerous health scares over the past decade and hence is also on the list of likely deaths. He turns 87 in June (I swear I have nothing against people born in June). Aging stars Bruce Forsyth (turns 86 later this month) and Betty White (turns 92 next month) could also die in 2014 without much surprise.

Excluding deaths, I have made a total of 23 predictions for 2014. I guess we will have to wait until 2015 to see how accurate they were!

A Troubled Northern Ireland

In December 2012, Belfast City Council held a vote that will always be remembered in Northern Ireland. The flag of the United Kingdom is somewhat controversial in Northern Ireland, unionists tend to love it whilst nationalists tend to hate it. Following 2011, for the first time in history the unionists in Belfast City Council lost their majority. The unionists (DUP, UUP and PUP) had 21 seats, the nationalists (Sinn Féin and SDLP) had 22 and the moderate Alliance party had six seats. This meant that no side had an overall majority and so more compromises had to be made. The issue arose over how often to fly the Union Flag flew over Belfast City Council, the unionists wanted to keep it up permanently, whilst the nationalists wanted it down permanently. So Alliance decided to broker a compromise, which resulted in the Union Flag being flown only 18 designated days.

Cue uproar.

Ever since then there has been numerous ‘flag protests’, reaching the greatest intensity in January 2013. The ongoing troubles has resulted in a rocky year for Northern Ireland. Thankfully the second city of Northern Ireland, Derry, has had a good year. This is largely thanks to the UK City of Culture 2013 taking place in the city. Over 430,000 people visited during the week of the Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann alone!

Parades have also been a contentious point in Northern Ireland, particularly the 12^th of July parades. One annual flashpoint is in the Ardoyne area in Belfast, the majority nationalist community has a Loyal Orange Lodge march through the area every 12^th of July. This unfortunately results in an annual riot in the area, usually between nationalist youths and the police.

One of the biggest problems left over from the Troubles is how to investigate the 3,300 unresolved murders. Reaching an agreement on this seems to be nigh impossible. One of the problems is that many of the politicians currently in Northern Irish politics were involved in organisations that carried out the murders. Although the politicians may not have actually killed anyone personally, investigating murders could result in some politicians revisiting a past that they would really rather remained buried.

As a result of these unresolved problems, talks between the five major parties began late last year. On the unionist side you had the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), opposing them on the nationalist side is Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). Trying to find a middle ground is the Alliance Party. The talks were chaired by American diplomat Dr Richard Haass, resulting in them being referred to as the ‘Haass talks’. The discussions were fraught and at times a deal simply seemed out of the question. Yet the determination of the parties to get past differences and the hard word of Dr Haass has meant that great progress has been made. Unfortunately a concrete agreement has not been made, but with a bit more work in 2014 hopefully a final proposal will be accepted by all five parties.

The Bloodshed in Syria Continues

The Civil War in Syria has been raging for almost three years and doesn’t look like it is ending anytime soon. So far an estimated 165,000 people have been killed in the bloodshed that has created 3,000,000 refugees.

Fighting continues across the country between the rebels and the government for control of land. As the horrors of the war become more and more vivid, and especially after President Bashar Al-Assad used chemical weapons, the West began to prepare for war. Going to war because of suspected chemical weapons? For many in the West this brought back horrible memories of the Iraq War, an invasion that was built on the lie that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). In September a poll showed 72% of Europeans and 62% of Americans opposed military intervention. Nonetheless, the march to war has begun and surely nothing could stop it!

Wrong! It turned out that war was not inevitable! In Britain war was surprisingly stopped by Parliament of all places. What was meant to be a largely symbolic vote in favour of intervention if Syria turned out did use chemical weapons, turned into one of the biggest news stories of the year. The vote failed 285-272, the first time Parliament had voted against any sort of Act of War in centuries. This did major damage to Britain’s prestige and to the war movement. Despite this setback, America and France continued to gear up for war. What really rocked the military, and averted Western intervention, was thanks to American Secretary of State John Kerry. It was also a complete accident on Kerry’s behalf.

In a news conference, Kerry was asked by Margaret Brennan of CBS News if there was anything the Syrian government could do to prevent an American bombing. Kerry said that the only way for Syria to prevent intervention would be for it to give up its chemical weapons immediately. Kerry immediately derided it as impossible and moved on to the next question. Well that off-hand comment ended up being the most important in all of 2013 (well at least the most important one that’s publically known). Almost as soon as that clip was aired around the world, the Syrians and Russians pounced on it.

Seeing it as the only opportunity to prevent a Western intervention, Syria promised that it would allow United Nations weapons inspectors into the country. Syria would then hand over all chemical weapons to be safely destroyed! By September an agreement was reached that would result in the elimination of all Syria’s chemical weapons by mid-2014. In October the UN declared that all of Syria’s facilities that could create chemical weapons had been destroyed.

Despite the success with chemical weapons, Syria is far from resolved. Removing chemical weapons does nothing to reduce the death and destruction occurring in the Middle Eastern country. Unfortunately there seems to be very little chance of the Civil War easing up at all this year. I am making the rather horribly prediction that the Syrian war will continue as bloody as ever. By the end of the year at least 200,000 people will be dead.

Egyptian Revolution: Round II

In the Arab Spring of 2011, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak was forced to resign following mass protests and the desertion of his army. Following democratic elections in 2011/2012 Islamist Mohamed Morsi became the first democratically elected President of Egypt. Naturally the election of an Islamist angered and scared secularists and Christians in Egypt, who feared that society might end up looking like Iran.

After Morsi was elected, he began to take more and more powers for himself. He arrested more people for the ‘crime’ of insulting the President than Mubarak had done in his entire run as President! He also gave immunity to those working on drafting the new constitution, who were only Islamists by this stage.

Protests against the leadership and actions of President Morsi began in late 2012 after Morsi’s government effectively gave the President unlimited power. This may have seemed like a good idea to the Islamists, but considering that Egyptians had proven themselves adept at revolutions, it was actually a monumentally stupid one! The protesters simply would not go away. Protests intensified in late June 2013 as the one year anniversary of Morsi’s inauguration approached. Eventually the army intervened and deposed President Morsi on the 3^rd of July 2013. The Army’s leader, General al-Sisi announced that Adly Mansour, Chief Justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court would become interim President.

Despite Morsi’s unpopularity with many Egyptians, particularly secularists, liberals and Christians, he still had many supporters. As well as being President, Morsi was leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organisation that has been banned in Egypt for most of its existence. After Morsi was deposed several other leaders were arrested and the Muslim Brotherhood was made illegal once again in September. Naturally the Muslim Brotherhood protested against their treatment, but they experienced a bloody crackdown. Despite the bloodshed, they are still protesting.

Egypt has had a tumultuous few years since the 2011 Revolution, and it certainly won’t become a stable democracy overnight. The future is unclear, it will be difficult, but if good Egyptians work hard, they can prevent Egypt from stumbling back into dictatorship.

Protesters in Tahrir Square, Cairo in 2013
source: freethoughtblogs.com

Britain Won't Intervene

Syria has dominated the headlines over the past few days and for good reason. It was announced that the UN inspectors would be finished and out of Syria by Saturday, the BBC revealed a new regime-committed atrocity, and France and America will likely intervene in Syria. But the biggest news came out of the UK.

Last night the House of Commons rejected David Cameron's proposal that we should have some form of limited intervention in Syria. This was despite Cameron conceding that intervention would have to follow the UN inspectors' report, that there would be a second vote in the House of Commons and we should at least try to go through the UN. The pro-intervention side said that we must show Assad that we are serious and that intervention would be perfectly legal from a humanitarian standpoint. Unfortunately Labour won the vote, 285 against intervention, 272 in favour. This means that Britain will not be able to intervene in Syria and it sends the message to Assad that Britain will not act against him if he uses chemical weapons again.

As this vote was taking place last night, the BBC was releasing evidence of a new atrocity in Syria. A Syrian air-force jet dropped, what is believed to be, some form of incendiary bomb on a school playground. The BBC reported that the injuries from nearby victims was consistent with that of napalm. So far, ten have died.

Meanwhile the US has revealed that it is certain that Assad used chemical weapons earlier this month. The report claimed that the US knows exactly when the attack took place and where the chemicals were launched from. The report claims that 1,429 people were killed and 426 were children. So the US and France are intervening, whilst Britain sits on the sidelines and Russia raises tensions by sending a warship to the eastern Mediterranean.

Watch this space folks.

Intervention is Coming

It looks like the world may finally take action in Syria, despite the conflict starting almost 900 days ago. The rhetoric has began to get really angry across the West as the evidence for a chemical attack became more and more concrete. On the 25th Medecins San Frontieres announced that they had treated around 3,600 people that showed signs of 'neurotoxic symptoms', later 355 died.

The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, said in a press conference that the attack was "a moral obscenity that should shock the world." He also added; "make no mistake, President Obama believes there must be accountability for those who would use the world's most heinous weapons against the world's most vulnerable people." According to current reports, the US military reaction will occur in the next few days, before Congress returns from holiday.

In Britain the reaction has been even stronger with David Cameron returning early from his holiday and recalling Parliament on Thursday. Foreign Secretary, William Hague, said in an interview that Britain would be prepared to intervene in Syria without UN authorisation - by far the strongest language so far.

In Russia and Syria, the opinion is very different. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, called an unauthorised intervention "a very grave violation of international law." The Russians have also claimed that there never even was a chemical attack - a ridiculous claim considering the overwhelming evidence.

So we have finally arrived at the point where Western military action is not only a possibility, but likely. France and Britain seem very willing to intervene in some form without a UN resolution. The USA is certainly a lot more timid about intervening but the chemical attacks appear to have persuaded America to act. We don't know quite how the West will react, it will almost certainly be a coordinated response, most likely through NATO. Stay tuned folks, the next few days will be very important. 

Chemical Weapons Must Force West to Act

The crisis in Syria has (somehow) gotten even worse with more reports that the Assad regime has allegedly used chemical weapons. The accusations come as UN inspectors arrive in Syria to inspect its chemical weapons stockpile. The chemical weapon in question? Sarin gas, the same chemical that Saddam Hussein used against the Kurds in 1988. At the moment the reports are not verified, but there has been footage showing piles of dead bodies with no wounds, indicating some form of chemical weapons being deployed. The problem for the West is that verifying the use of sarin gas is extremely difficult, in 1988 it took four years to confirm its use and the compounds break-up rapidly.

I have been writing about the Syrian crisis for over a year and a half now and I feel that most posts boil down to the same storyline: Assad does something terrible, the West condemns it, Russia ignores it, Assad denies it and nothing changes. This post largely seems similar but there is a difference; the West (and Obama in particular) could have made the entire situation worse.

Earlier this year Western intelligence agencies confirmed that they had a "high degree of confidence" that Assad had used chemical weapons. This was met by the usual condemnation by the West and denial by Syria and Russia. The big question at the time was; what would the West do? Obama had called the use of chemical weapons a red line. So when Assad, according to the intelligence community, crossed the line, what did Obama do? Well he gave us a few good speeches and possibly did some minor things behind the scenes, but nothing overt. Obama's inaction turned out to be very important as then Assad knew that he could do anything he wanted, with little fear of Western retaliation. It emboldened him to use chemical weapons, which it looks like he just has.

By now we must realise that going through the UN is useless. Russia has a veto on the United Nations Security Council and US-Russia relations are at a low point over Snowden and Syria. The chances of a deal are low. The Western powers, in particular Britain, France and the US, must act without the UN. We must create a no-fly-zone to start with. We can use Turkey and Israel as our allies to help enforce it. Britain already has a large presence in the area due to massive bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia on Cyprus and America has massive bases in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. This could be started very quickly, and every day we wait, more people die.

Chaos Returns to Egypt

Egypt has been plunged into chaos since President Morsi was deposed earlier this week and much of the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood was arrested. Egypt is split over whether to support the actions of the army, initially Morsi opponents spilled onto the streets, letting off fireworks and cheering with joy. The Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters are distraught and have since poured onto the streets to show their rejection of the army's actions. Some protests have turned violent and over 70 protesters have been killed in clashes with the army and security forces. The next few weeks will be extremely important for Egypt's future as the Muslim Brotherhood continues to protest and the army continues to crack down on them. The army has called for fresh elections to the presidency and parliament and a re-drawing of the constitution.

New elections will give the secularist left a chance to steal the revolution back from the Islamists. The left was totally disorganised at the last election in 2012 with no uniting candidate for President. This meant that the run-off for president was between Ahmed Shafik and Mohammed Morsi. Shafik had been the final Prime Minister under Mubarak and Morsi had the backing of the 85 year old Muslim Brotherhood, so both were considerably better organised than the disorientated left.

If Egypt actually makes it to the next election in a peaceful state then we can only hole that the President Egypt chooses is not an Islamists or a Mubarak crony but rather a force for change.

Syria Talks Stall at G8

It's looking increasingly unlikely that the world is ever going to agree on what to do about Syria. In a joint press conference with Obama, Russian president Putin warned that Europe will suffer if they arm the rebels. There was one agreement though, both men agreed that chemical weapons should not be used. Which really isn't that big a leap, and as shown recently, Russia will simply reject any Western intelligence indicating the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime.

This will have disappointed Cameron and Hollande who have been pressing the international community, particularly Russia and China, to do something constructive in Syria. Earlier today Cameron said the following:

"What we do need to do is bring about this peace conference and this transition so that the people in Syria can have a government that represents them rather than a government that's trying to butcher them."

There is a lot to worry about with intervention in Syria, frequently things are made worse by intervention. If we arm the rebels we risk what happened in Afghanistan, when American armed the Taliban to fight the Soviets, repeating itself in Syria. Boris Johnson has warned against arming "Syria's maniacs and fanatics". Personally I'm also wary of arming the rebels, what I favour is implementing a no-fly-zone. That way we help the rebels, but we don't give them anything that they could later turn on us.

I do fear what will happen in Syria regardless of what we do, 93,000 people have died since the uprising began. How many more must die before this brutal civil war will end? 

The Next Failed State?

It seems that Syria may become the world’s latest addition to its failed states list. The violence that has been raging for two years has torn the country apart, the UN estimates over 70,000 Syrians have been killed, 1.2 million internally displaced and around 500,000 have fled to neighbouring countries. Unfortunately for the Syrian people, the end is nowhere in sight. The rebels have grabbed control over vast proportions of the north and east of the country, whilst the government still controls most of the major cities as well as the southern and coastal areas. Whereas the Assad loyalists have aircrafts and tanks, the rebels mostly have AK-47s and other small weapons. The international community has been totally inept in dealing with Syria, the UN Security Council won’t ever be able to act as Russia (which can veto any resolution) remains an ally of Syria. America and Britain both back the rebels over Assad but remember vividly the spectacular failure of the Iraq War and subsequent violence. Russia and Iran still back the Assad regime, providing him with arms and money which render Western sanctions largely ineffective.

The West must change its position on Syria, our current approach is simply not working, to many Syrians have died already. A good start would be to create a no fly zone over Syria and enforcing it, this would help the rebels deep in rebel held territory as the regime would find it harder to attack them. It would also give Syrians fleeing Assad’s henchmen a safe haven and it would give the rebels a chance to gain strength. Limited arming of the rebels should be carried out, strictly to non-Islamist/Salafist groups, this would give the rebels a better chance of winning against tanks and other heavy machinery. Over the past decade the West has tried to stamp out terrorism wherever it finds it, if Syria were to fall into pure and unadulterated chaos, then we would have another area of the world perfect for breeding terrorists.

Tomorrow a group of countries called the “Friends of Syria” will meet in Rome along with leaders of the Syrian opposition. The group contains over 100 countries, including America, France and Britain and aims to help the rebels. Previous meetings don’t seem to have had much effect on Syria, let’s hope this meeting goes better.

Whilst the world watches and discusses action in Syria, many more will die. We must act soon, to save lives.

Tunisian Democracy in Peril?

Tunisia is the birthplace of the Arab Spring, the protests that began there and toppled a government quickly spread throughout the Middle East. Unfortunately Tunisia’s fledgling democracy is looking increasingly unstable. Following the assassination of the opposition leader, Chokri Belaid, on the 6^th of February mass protests began and numerous politicians resigned. The latest to go is the Prime Minister, Hamadi Jebali, who resigned on Tuesday after he was unable to form a coalition and refused to create a government of technocrats. The political tensions following Mr Belaid’s assassination and the completely paralysed economy means that more protests and more violence will soon follow. Others will try and form a coalition government, but it will not be easy as tensions go and more people resign. Although still several months away, these sort of problems could prove detrimental to the smooth running of the general election scheduled for summer.

All throughout the Middle East countries that overthrew dictators look increasingly likely to relapse into autocracy, their economies are struggling due to the revolutions and their politics are increasingly tense. At a time of austerity, this may not be welcomed in the West, but we must help them out. A triad of democratic states (Tunisia, Libya and Egypt) could prove invaluable as allies and would help to stabilise the region and oil supply lines (an appeal to conservatives). We’ve already seen the invaluable work a democratic Turkey has done, adding three more nations to the list would be brilliant. We must help these nations in any way possible.

Jebali announcing his resignation
source: www.bbc.co.uk

Belfast Protests Enter 6th Week

When Belfast City Council voted on the 3^rd of December to only fly the flag on certain days of the year, most people did not realise what this would trigger. The action infuriated many unionists who feel that their British identity has been under threat for a long time. This vote was the final straw and they’ve been protesting ever since. Many of the protests have gone off peacefully but there have been many that have turned violent. On Friday night 29 police officers were injured in a confrontation in East Belfast between nationalists and protesters.

Unfortunately it doesn’t look like there is any end in sight and riots are breaking out with increasing frequency. Thankfully the protests and violence have been largely confined to Belfast, although there have been flashpoints all across Northern Ireland. In reality this could not have happened at a worse time, after a year of poor sales, shopkeepers and other businessmen were hoping that Christmas would bring a much needed boost to sales. A fear of roads being blocked by protesters and the threat of violence kept most people away. This has had a serious effect on the business community, some entrepreneurs have reported losses up to tens of thousands of pounds! 2013 was supposed to be a good year for NI; Derry/Londonderry (NI’s second city) has the UK City of Culture, Derry has been listed by a number of travel guides as one of the top destinations in 2013. This was supposed to be the year that we started to send out good images to the world. Yet this year has begun with images of violence and protests. Great.

Police are caught in the middle of clashes between nationalists and protesters
source: telegraph.co.uk

Syrian Civil War

Days since it began: 658

Dead: 42,000+

It has been almost two years since anti-regime protests began peacefully. Unfortunately Syria has subsequently descended into Civil War and change is a long way off. Despite this there is some hope for the Syrian people, when protests began they had no arms or real organisation, the majority of the army remained loyal to Assad and the regime knew that it could always find an ally in Russia. Things are very different now, the rebels have taken control of vast swathes of the country, particularly in the north and the east. They now have an organisation to  co-ordinate the rebellion and is recognised by 19 countries as the legitimate government of Syria, Russia’s support for Assad is also weakening. Now Syria’s only real ally is Iran, which is currently one of the most isolated countries due to UN sanctions.

Despite the advances for the Free Syrian Army there have been terrible atrocities committed by Assad. In May 108 people were killed by Shabiha militia loyal to the government near the town of Houla. Later in June at least 78 people were killed by government forces in Hama, in July between 38 and 220 people were killed in Tremseh and in August government forces attacked the Darayya suburb of Damascus and killed over 600 people! In all these massacres it was mostly innocent civilians killed , in the Houla massacre almost half killed were children. To mark matters worse NATO confirmed that just last month the Syrian government began using Scud missiles. Sucds are ballistic missiles developed by the Soviets during the Cold War, and now Assas is using them on his fellow Syrians. Some fear it is only a matter of time until he uses chemical or biological weapons.

Yet despite all these atrocities associated with the Assad regime, little can be done within the UN. Russia continues to exercise its veto when it comes to the Syrian question. Although its support is weakening, it still exists and as long as it does the international community will be powerless. The Western and Arab powers must try and persuade Russia to stop blockading progress and help the Syrian people.

Egypt's Chaotic Year

It’s been a rocky year for Egyptians in 2012, but there is some hope for the future. It started off well in January when parliament sat for the first time, the army subsequently handed over legislative authority to the parliament. This was a sight that Egypt may indeed be moving forward, progress seemed to occur again when the presidential election took place. Although people were not pleased with the choice in the second round of voting, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi and ex-dictator Mubarak’s last Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik. Things began to look a bit more like a rollercoaster after that, later in June the army declared that it had picked the people who would sit on a 100 member assembly that would draft a new constitution and the next day it dissolved parliament. On the other hand on the 26^th of June the courts revoked a decree allowing military personnel the right to arrest civilians and on the 30^th the army handed power to the newly elected President, Mohamed Morsi.

Right from the start Morsi faced problems, the economy was (and still is) in tatters and foreign investors are wary of putting any money into Egypt. Over the coming months there was a struggle between Morsi, allied with the Islamists and Salafists, the army and a coalition of secularists, Christians and women. Unfortunately for the final group they have no power, they were outnumbered on the Constitutional Assembly and the President is an Islamist. They fear the introduction of even parts of Sharia Law, Coptic Christians account for 10% of Egypt’s 80 million citizens. The Army hopes to remain powerful, and it may get its wish! When Morsi issued his controversial decrees in November, one of them stated that the minister of defence must come from the army. This basically means that army lacks civilian oversight. The November decrees that broadened Morsi’s powers were met with anger on the streets of Egypt as people feared a return to dictatorship.

The coalition of anti-Islamists decided to boycott the referendum on the new constitution which led to the low turnout of only 33%. In the end the constitution passed with around 64% of people voting to adopt it. Next year will be very important for the direction of the country, whether it does liberalise as many people had hoped originally or does it go down the route of Sharia law?

A poster comparing Morsi to Mubarak
source: theatlantic.com

Morsi Bows to Pressure

Early this month I posted about Egypt’s democracy being on a knife edge, the President Mohamed Morsi had issued a number of decrees with massively expanded his authority. This sparked massive protests, the biggest since last year’s revolution, under pressure Morsi has cancelled some of the controversial decrees. Morsi has cancelled the decrees which block judges from challenging his authority and give him the ability of pass ‘emergency laws’. Yet this does not mean that the protests will end and everyone will go home happy, the opposition protests also want the constitutional referendum cancelled. The constitution is not very popular with the opposition; they claim that it ignores the needs of women, secularists and the country’s significant minority.

The protests have resulted in seven deaths and over 700 injuries, the Cairo headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood (Morsi’s party) have been set on fire and protesters have threatened the Presidential Palace. Morsi has been forced to retreat behind barbed wire, police, militias and tanks as the protests have become increasingly violent. Some of the protesters have begun calling for Morsi to resign.

Egypt’s powerful army has warned against the country entering a “dark tunnel” and have called for the two sides to meet and broker a compromise. Despite Morsi’s repeal of a decree, a compromise is looking increasingly unlikely. Just today an opposition group has announced that they will boycott the referendum, which is scheduled to take place next Saturday. This doesn’t seem like the best idea, in boycotting the referendum they will not register a vote against it and therefore make the constitution more likely to become the law. It is a dangerous game they are playing, both sides argue that they have the ideas of the revolution at heart but they seem unable to agree on anything.

The events of the following week will be extremely important for the future of Egypt and the chances of its democracy surviving.

Syria Crisis: Day 716

In the 716 days that have succeeded the 15^th of March 2011 roughly 40,000 Syrian civilians have been killed in the Syrian Civil War that threatens Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. Despite set-backs in the early parts of the War, more recently it would seem that in recent months the Syrian opposition has been slowly gaining ground and possibly the upper hand. On the international stage the Syrian opposition is continuously gaining ground over the Assad regime, with the formation of the ‘National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces’, the revolution gained on a key diplomatic front. Since then 11 countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Turkey, UK and Italy) have recognised the National Coalition as the ‘sole legitimate representative of Syria’, most of the rest of Europe and the United States have given the NC at least some recognition.

Inside Syria things are looking darker for the regime; rebel forces have taken a number of military bases, including an airport, in the eastern province of Deir Ez-Zor. The rebels have also made some significant advances in Syria’s second city of Aleppo, capturing at least five army bases in the past few weeks. Capturing these bases not only provides the rebels with good morale, but with crucial tanks, heavy weapons and anti-aircraft missiles. High profile defections seem to happen every couple of weeks, this helps to weaken Assad politically.

Yet it’s not all over for the Assad regime, international allies in the form of Iran and Russia are proving vital for the regime. There have been reports that Russia has been supplying Assad with tonnes of banknotes to prevent the economic collapse of the Syrian government. Russian made weapons have also allowed the regime to gain a significant advantage over the rebels in technology.

Despite this, the odds are stacked against Assad, what worries many people are the possibility of the use of chemical weapons. The international community does know that the Assad regime has many chemical weapons; if Assad chose to use them they would devastate Syria. Releasing just one chemical weapon in a densely populated city such as Aleppo would kill thousands of civilians in one fell swoop. Although the Assad regime has promised never to use them, we know he is not a trustworthy person.

If Assad did choose to use chemical weapons, it would be the end for his regime. There is no way Russia could justify supporting his regime if he used this form of attack. It would spark such an outrage in western countries that military intervention could become a possibility, President Obama and David Cameron have both spoken about how the use of chemical weapons would be a red line. If Assad chooses to use chemical weapons, his end would be swift