Stop saying the Election was Fixed – You’re Embarrassing Yourselves

The result may not have been what you wanted, but that does not mean that the election was rigged.

If you’re a Labour supporter, like me, then the election results will have been devastating to you.  We lost pretty damn badly, in our former heartland of Scotland we were reduced to a pathetic one seat. We lost many prominent people; the Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy both lost their seats to the SNP, whilst Ed Balls was narrowly defeated by the Tories. But most of all, we’ve lost our leader Ed Miliband, whom many of us expected to be currently drawing up plans for how to form a government.

We weren’t the only losers though, the Lib Dems saw their ranks devastated. Vince Cable, gone. Danny Alexander, gone. Simon Hughes, gone. After the bloodshed, only eight Lib Dems were left, which leaves them on the same number of seats as the DUP. It was a mixed night for the Greens, their vote share increased hugely, and Caroline Lucas easily held on in Brighton Pavillion. However they failed to pick up Bristol West or Norwich South, meaning they still only have one MP. UKIP was in an even worse shape with Nigel Farage losing in South Thanet and Mark Reckless losing in Rochester and Strood. The only real successes of the night were the Tories and the SNP, both of whom did better than expected.

The disastrous result for Labour was simply not what the polls had led us to believe. We were neck and neck with the Tories, there was a sense of optimism amongst Labour ranks. We had a much easier path to the 326 seats for a majority; the SNP, Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SDLP would never prop up a Tory government. With the Lib Dems facing bleak prospects, and UKIP only expected to gain a maximum of three seats, there was no way for them to get to 326, even with DUP backing.

However that does not mean the election was rigged.

I have no idea why the polls were so terribly wrong, some people suspect a late swing to the Tories, or a repeat of the 1992 shy Tory affect. Whatever it was, the fact is they weren’t accurate. Over the past 48 hours I have seen an increasing number of posts in Labour supporting groups that claim that the election was stolen by the Tories. I’ve even seen one person suggest we get the UN to get involved to investigate the apparent fraud. Look, I know you’re not happy with the result of the election, but that does not mean that it was rigged. Claiming that it was rigged is ridiculous, this country is a real democracy, not some country with a dictator. Claiming that the election was rigged is also damaging to our future prospects. By saying the election was stolen by the Tories suggests that we don’t actually have to change anything about our strategy, our message, or our policies.  Attitude like that will result in defeat again in 2020. We need to move on so that we can put up a united front to this Tory government and successfully fight the elections that will be held this time next year.

Crying out that it is all a conspiracy is not helpful, and rather embarrassing to the rest of us in the Party. Please stop. If you want to do something useful then join a protest, start a protest. But don’t just complain. 

Here's a selection of posts claiming that the election was rigged from the Facebook group "I'm Backing Ed Miliband" (https://www.facebook.com/groups/iambackingedmiliband/)

I would hope that they'd have been destroyed by now

Or the real world explanation that more people voted for them?

Yes, because a survey of people from Labour supporting backgrounds is
going to be totally representative of the general population.

There's one thing not to read an article before posting it and making a comment,
it's another thing to not even read the headline.
*BLANK* Ballot papers were stolen

I'm devastated to, but resorting to conspiracy theories to explain our
loss needs to stop. 

Triumph for UKIP (and disaster for the Lib Dems)

Throughout 2014 one man and one party dominated political discussions in the UK; Nigel Farage and UKIP. At the beginning of 2014 UKIP and the Liberal Democrats were both scraping double digits, although it was clear that UKIP were pulling away. The average of polls on ukpollingreport show that by December the Lib Dems averaged 7.6%, compared to 15.4% for UKIP.

UKIP achieved great success in the European elections, placing first for the first time with 24 seats to Labour’s 20 and the Conservative’s 19. They managed to win a seat in all of Britain’s regions, except Northern Ireland. In the council elections held the same day UKIP gained 163 seats, finishing with 17% of the vote, 5% lower than the 2013 council elections which were held in more UKIP friendly, rural councils. The huge amount of media coverage over the year has helped to bolster its support, which could have a huge impact on May’s General Election. UKIP also succeeded in getting its first MP’s elected. After Conservative MPs Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless defected from the Conservative Party to UKIP, they resigned to trigger by-elections: they both won election easily as the UKIP candidate.

Whilst UKIP had a great year, the Liberal Democrats had a truly awful one. In the European elections they lost half their vote share and 10 of their 11 MEPs. They did so badly that they were in 5^th place, behind the Green Party. In the council elections they lost 310 councillors and got a lower percentage of the vote than UKIP. Things looks so bad for the Lib Dems that Nick Clegg, the party leader, many lose his seat in the Sheffield Hallam constituency. Considering he won 53% in 2010, with a majority of 30%, it would be a truly astounding coup.

2014 has undoubtedly been the best year for Farage and UKIP, the question is: will this continue into 2015? At the moment it certainly seems likely, UKIP and its members have been involved in numerous gaffes, yet its popularity has been unaffected by them. Despite UKIP’s popularity, there is one group that simply refuses to support it: young people. In a poll published late December of people aged 17-22 (people who will be eligible to vote in a General Election for the first time in May 2015) showed that UKIP had next to no support amongst the demographic. According to the poll Labour came top with 41%, the Tories second with 26%, followed by the Greens on 19%, the Lib Dems on 6% and UKIP on a measly 3%. Not only that, Farage is deeply unpopular with the age group, scoring a net approval rating (the percentage of people who approve minus the percentage of people who disapprove) of -51% which is by far the worst of all the party leaders. UKIP’s unpopularity is down to young people being socially liberal and very pro-EU: 67% said they would vote to stay in the EU, compared to 19% who would vote to leave.

Whilst UKIP may succeed in the short run, the future is not favourable to UKIP after all, young people are the future. 

Nigel Farage (centre) with UKIP's two MPs, Mark Reckless (left)
and Douglas Carswell (right)

Why Murphy was the Wrong Choice for Scottish Labour

Jim Murphy emerged victorious from yesterday’s Scottish Labour leadership election. Despite his decisive win with 55% of the vote in the first round, he was definitely the wrong choice for Labour and for Scotland

So why do I think Murphy is the wrong choice for Scotland? The reason is that he does not represent what the Scottish electorate believe, nor what they want in a politician. Murphy has been a Westminster politician since 1997, when he won election to his seat of _____, since then he has plotted a course that marks himself as hardline New Labour. Amongst his positions that offends many socialists is his defence of the disaster in Iraq, his support for Israel and Trident, and his general neo-liberal approach to foreign policy. To make matters worse his history as a politician is sketchy, back in the 1996 whilst he as President of the NUS (National Union of Students) he changed the policy of NUS support for the student grant despite the fact that the opposite had been agreed at the NUS’ conference in Derby that year. He was condemned by a group of Labour MPs in the House of Commons for his “intolerant and dictatorial behaviour” as President of the NUS. More recently in 2012 (two years after the original expenses scandal) he was caught using a loophole which allowed him to claim £20,000 in expenses for renting out accommodation in London, whilst simultaneously renting out property he owned.  

Facing off against Murphy were MSPs Neil Findlay and Sarah Boyack. If Scottish Labour had been thinking straight, they would have chosen Findlay as he was the perfect candidate for Scotland. Unlike Murphy, Findlay was not a career politician having only joined the Scottish Parliament in 2011 after spending 30 years in various professions, including brick layer and teacher. He was by far the favoured candidates of the Unions, having received official backing from ten of them. His policies were much more socialist than Murphy’s, which makes him more in line with the Scottish electorate. Findlay opposes Trident (Britain’s nuclear weapons program) and PFIs (Private Finance Initiatives) in the NHS, he also wants to renationalise the railways and build 100,000s of new homes. He also is very pro-Palestine and wants to make the living wage the minimum wage.

Many Scottish voters are dissatisfied with Labour, they believe that the Party has drifted too far to the right over the past decade. In the last six months support for the SNP has surged in the polls, at Labour’s expense. If Labour wants to win back people who have defected in recent months, the Party needed to elect someone who was in tune with what Scottish people wanted.

When given the choice between a candidate whose policies are similar to those of the Scottish electorate in the form of Neil Findlay, and a candidate who is a Blairite and a Westminster MP in the form of Jim Murphy, Scottish Labour chose the latter. Labour faces a wipeout in the 2015 General Election, Findlay could have stymied that. I believe that Murphy, despite his charisma, will contribute to the wipeout. 

The Establishment In Chaos

The Rochester and Strood by-election has thrown the British establishment into a state of panic. The by-election was triggered when Mark Reckless switched from the Tories to UKIP. In yesterday’s election UKIP won 42.1% of the vote whilst the three main parties all lost large percentages of their vote. The Tories lost 14%, Labour 12% and the Lib Dems 16%, for the Lib Dems it was their worst ever result as they lost their deposit, got less than 1% of the vote and finished in fifth, behind the Greens who got 4.2% of the vote.

Obviously this does not bode well for the main parties’ prospects in May. The next General Election could be the most important election in living memory as six parties vie for success. UKIP’s unique ability to attract voters from the three main parties really makes it difficult to understand what will happen at the next election. Although the result in Rochester certainly seems like an earthquake, it doesn't necessitate that similar events will happen in the General Election. Voters act differently in by-elections to Generals, Labour didn’t win any by-elections from the Conservatives from 1997 to 2012, but they still won Generals in 2001 and 2005. A combination of factors are the reason for by-elections looking different to General Elections. Firstly, opposition voters tend to be more motivated to go out and show support for their candidates. Since by-elections have no effect on who forms the government (apart from very rare circumstances), the incumbent party supporters simply are not motivated enough. Most importantly is that supporters of the incumbent party can use by-elections as a way to protest vote. This is certainly part of the reason for UKIP’s success in Rochester & Strood, many people are angry with the Tories and so voted for UKIP to scare them into taking tougher approaches to immigration and the European Union. However in the May election I believe that Rochester will switch back to the Tories.

As a political junkie I am excited by what the implications of May’s General Election will be for years to come. Take a look at the graph and table I created below. As you can see the combined vote of Labour and the Tories has declined over the past 70 years, albeit very slowly. If you include the various incarnations of the Lib Dems, most of the decline disappears. The combined vote of the three main parties has only dipped below 90% on two occasions (2005 and 2010). How this graph changes in 2015 will be fascinating as the Greens, UKIP and the SNP erode support from the main parties.