Romney Fails in Yesterday's Primaries

Yes I know that Romney won both Arizona and Michigan, but it was still a psychological failure for him and he likely knows it, but more importantly Santorum will also know this. Romney should have won Michigan easily, it’s his home state, he won it with ease in 2008 and he has strong family ties with Michigan, it is the state he group up in after all. Yet he only scraped by to win the primary and it’s not good for his prestige.

Personally, I feel, one of Romney’s major problems is his attitude to his own wealth. Romney speaks of being a car man and then lists the cars he owns which, considering his wealth is a very long list. All this does is alienate voters, it also doesn’t help when he makes a campaign video about loving the American automotive industry (despite wanting it to go bankrupt) whilst driving the whole time in a Canadian car. Pretty stupid huh? Also he thinks the height of the trees in Michigan is just right, which is the most bizarre statement I’ve heard in this campaign so far.  It isn’t just a one off comment; he’s made it on multiple occasions and has given no explanation why. Talking on the Rachel Maddow show, Michael Moore (from Michigan) said that this is not some sort Michigan “thing”, it is just completely random.

This hasn’t cemented the campaign for any one candidate and it will remain a tight race until all states have voted.

London 2012 Olympics Under Threat

This summer the eyes of the world will be on the UK, specifically London. This is due to the Olympic Games, the world’s greatest sports event. When the UK won the even back in 2005 it was a huge victory. The 2012 games will be fantastic for the UK, unless Len McCluskey has his way. McCluskey is the leader of the UK’s biggest Union, “Unite the Union”, and he has said in a statement that he would see the 2012 Olympic Games as an opportunity for strikes and general protest against the government cuts. These comments have received a battering of criticism from all sides; David Cameron, Ed Milliband and other trade unionists have all come out in opposition to the proposed strike date. The Labour Party's close links to Unite make it difficult for Milliband to come out with too strong condemnation. I agree with Milliband, although I believe very firmly in public protest, doing so during the Olympics would be a grave mistake. It could frighten people into not investing in the UK and would give us a bad image abroad, people would go to their home countries and speak of the disruption they had and many people would miss events.

 

During London 2012 the British public must be on their best behaviour to maximise the beneficial impact of the games, otherwise it would be a huge waste of money and time. It will be extremely difficult to top Beijing, especially considering the economic climate, but if London manages to put on a fantastic show, considering the circumstances, then it would be a resounding success.

Hopefully the fourth games in London (whenever they are held) will be under better circumstances than all of London’s three other games. In 1908 Britain had only two years to prepare for the games due to the cancellation of the Rome games as the eruption of Vesuvius meant the Italian government had to direct funds away from the Olympics. The 1848 games were held in the immediate aftermath of WWII and the current games are being held during the worst economic crisis in living memory.

Romney & Santorum in Michigan

Today Republicans in Michigan went to the polls to select their candidate. Yet the two frontrunners were opposed to Obama’s stimulus package that stopped General Motors, an iconic American brand, from going bankrupt and saved thousands of jobs. Since receiving the government loan, GM has gone on to announce the largest profits in the company’s history and has taken the crown of biggest motor company from Toyota. It is a phenomenal story about the economic recovery of America and especially in Detroit, the city that has been in perpetual decline for a generation. Despite the success of the stimulus package for GM both Romney and Santorum have defended their original position, even though Romney said “Let Detroit go bankrupt”. It’s simply astounding that they defend this position given the huge success of the GM deal. But the answer lies in the state of Michigan itself, a poll of Michigan Republicans says that 50% of them oppose the GM stimulus, despite the wonders it has done for Detroit and Michigan as a whole.

Michigan is also important as it is Romney’s home state, he grew up there and his parents were both very popular politicians. If he were to lose Michigan to Santorum it would be a gargantuan blow to his campaign, the fact that earlier last week Santorum was leading shows that Republicans are extremely split over who will be their presidential nominee.  

Despite the state being later in the competition, by being Romney's home state it increases its importance. 

The Detroit comeback is one of the greatest success stories of Obama's first term

The Worrying Relationship Between the Met & the Sun

Today Sue Akers, the deputy assistant commissioner spoke to Lord Justice Leveson to tell him of the “culture of illegal payments” by Sun journalists to police officers and other public officials. What she spoke of threatens to engulf the Metropolitan Police with many more arrests likely to come, it will be the most devastating issue for the Met since the organisation was branded institutionally racist by the MacPherson inquiry. It is horrifying to think that some of those who are meant to uphold the law and make our streets safe were performing illegal activities themselves. It is absolutely sickening and every police officer who took payments should be sent to prison.

Yet nobody really knows the full story yet, both the Leveson inquiry and the investigation by Sue Akers will continue for many more months and delve further into both the cosy relationship between the police and the press and other illegal activities. Most notably at Murdoch’s big names, the News of the World and the Sun. My only hope is that this time the investigation will produce meaningful results and that both the press and the police will complete the necessary reforms to give us a free but law abiding press.

Only an idiot would believe Rebekah Brook’s or Andy Coulson’s statements that they did not know about phone hacking or other illegal activities as well as denials coming from senior journalists at the Sun or NOTW. There is much evidence that take apart Brook’s and Coulson’s lies, Jeff Edwards was the crime correspondent at a Murdoch paper between 1980 and 1985 and says he lost his job because he was uncomfortable paying police officers. This isn’t a simple hunch that Mr Edwards has come up with, he was actually told that he’d lost his job because of his ethics.

Nobody really knows that will happen over the next year but it will be an important one for this country in terms of both the press and policing, I just hope both institutions can reform.

Sue Aker at the Leveson Inquiry today

Santorum Angers the Dutch

Santorum has greatly angered the Dutch in a recent statement about euthanasia. In it he claimed that 10% of deaths in the Netherlands are caused by euthanasia and of those deaths half of them are not voluntary. He claims that the elderly do not go to hospital but rather they leave the country because they are afraid that due to budget purposes the hospital will kill them. He also claims that elderly Dutch people wear special bracelets saying “do not euthanise me”. None of the aforementioned claims have a grain of truth in them, indeed the Netherlands does have euthanasia but it’s nothing like how Santorum described it.

It has provoked outrage in the Netherlands, an opposition leader and member of the Dutch Labour Party, Frans Timmermans, has demanded that the Dutch ambassador to the US weigh in on this and if she won’t do it, then the foreign minister should step in. It has insulted the Dutch so much because it has been said by a possible future president and he was not saying it as a joke or in jest. I agree, Santorum appears to want to anger as many groups of people as humanly possible, he has angered non-Whites, Liberals, Catholics, Mormons, gay people, immigrants, the British (over comments made about the NHS) and now the Dutch. It seems that he will not be happy until he has annoyed every group of people on the planet. If he becomes president I will be the first one on the shuttle to the moon. Its worrying that people like him actually get a platform in politics and that they have wide bases of support. I don’t understand where he got these lies from, did he make them up? Did someone give them to him, if so did he never even check if they were real? Apparently not.

I really hope Obama gets re-elected as the Republicans are an alternative I would dread to think about.

Republican Presidential Race

The fate of the world is in their hands. It may sound a bit melodramatic, but it’s true, whoever the Republicans decide to put forward will affect who becomes president even if it’s Obama. Let me explain, many Americans are swing voters, which means they are on the Republican/Democrat borderline. So if the Republicans select the more moderate Mitt Romney then they will probably take more of the swing voters, making a Republican president more likely. On the other hand if they select the more hardline Rick Santorum then they will be less able to attract swing voters and this will lower the chance of a Republican president.

So far nine primaries/caucuses have been held (although the Missouri Primary didn’t award delegates, they will award delegates after a caucus in March) Romney has won four, Nevada, Florida, Maine and New Hampshire. He is currently tied with Rick Santorum who has also taken Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado. Gringrich is currently third having only taken South Carolina and Ron Paul is trailing behind with no states. Yet the system is more complex than simply how many states won, due to variations in population different states award different numbers of delegates, some states award all delegates to the winner and some states award delegates to the runners up. In terms of the popular vote Mitt Romney is well ahead with over 1.1 million votes, Gringrich is second on 840,000 votes, Santorum is third on 432,000 votes and Ron Paul is still last on 310,000 votes. Yet more important than the amount of states carried or even the popular vote is how many delegates each candidate have received and this changes the order again. Romney is still first on 91 delegates, Gringrich is second on 32 delegates, Ron Paul third on nine delegates and Santorum is last on only four delegates. The reason for Santorum’s poor placing in terms of delegate numbers is that the four states he won are all non-binding, despite this he has still proved extremely strong.

The front runner Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum

The system by which Republicans select their presidential candidate is far from simple. Rather than simply a national vote of all Republicans in which the person who gets the most votes wins the nomination there is a complicated patchwork of state primaries or caucuses, binding or non-binding, winner takes all delegates or runners up get delegates too. The reason why Santorum has very few delegates is because the four states he won were all non-binding and delegates do not have to pledge to a candidate. The first state to go to the polls was Iowa, the state has the largest caucus of the race and is key, people who do well in this state tend to go on to become the Republican candidate, Santorum won this state but by an extremely slim margin. The second state to go to the polls was New Hampshire, which holds the country’s first primary. Here Romney did very well and won the state easily. The third state to go to the poll was South Carolina, here Newt Gringrich was chosen. This has been the first time since 1980 that three different candidates have been chosen for the first three states. It shows that the Republicans are extremely divided on who should become their presidential candidate. This leaves the race wide open, usually after South Carolina has voted the winner has been effectively chosen. This means that the early states have much more importance than the last states, resulting in more power being focused on the first few states. After South Carolina only four of the original seven candidates were left, after polling poorly in Iowa, Michelle Bachmann dropped out, Jon Huntsman left after placing third in New Hampshire, a state he had invested heavily in propaganda. The final person to drop out was Rick Perry who dropped out two days before the South Carolina polling and endorsed Gringrich.

Newt Gringrich

Ron Paul, trailing behind

The Republican presidential race is viewed by many, including myself, as a three horse race, Gringrich has only won one state and Paul has won none, whereas the frontrunners, Santorum and Romney are tied on four each but in the delegate and popular vote count put Gringrich and Romney as the front runners. Romney is probably going to get the nomination as he is first or joint first by any measure and most Republicans realise he has the best chance of defeating Obama. If the results of the Super Tuesday, in which ten states go to the polls, are decisive, then the race will largely be a foregone conclusion. If they are more mixed then it could be the closest race in years. Between Santorum and Romney, if I had to choose one to be President I would definitely choose Romney as he is more moderate. On the other hand I would rather Santorum wins the race as I believe he is too hardline for many of the swing voters, making Obama more likely to be re-elected. From my experience most Europeans would support a Democrat over a Republican; polls show that when America elects a Democrat as president it is more popular internationally than when it elects a Republican. This is most acute in Europe which is much more liberal than America. It’s not only public opinion outside of America that wants Obama re-elected, the IMF in a recent statement said that for America to continue its current growth rate it must keep the stimulus. As the Republicans have pledged to stop the stimulus the IMF may as well have said, don’t vote Republican.

With the race so tight it’s impossible to know what will happen. Michigan and Arizona are the next states to go to the polls when they both hold primaries on the 28^th of February.

Romney in Orange, Santorum in Green and Gringrich in Purple
source: wikipedia.org

Failed Work Experience Scheme

The crisis over one of the government’s pet projects has deepened, Emma Harrison has quit as chairperson of A4e, one of the largest firms contracted by the government to carry out work experience schemes. Although they are not related (Ms Harrison is dealing with fraud accusations) it still besmirches the image of the work experience schemes brought in by the government.

The scheme that is currently getting all the media attention is the work experience scheme in which people work for a company, but only on dole money. The company, such as Tesco, doesn’t have to pay them anything. The idea is a good one, to get people work experience which should help them get a job later. It sounds great doesn’t it? If someone wants to go into construction and spends six weeks working on a construction site then this will significantly help them in getting a job when the opportunity arises. The problem is that many people are simply shelf-stacking at Tesco and it doesn’t cost Tesco anything, basically it is slave labour and means that Tesco can hire less staff, pushing unemployment up! Chris Grayling, the Employment Minister, has come out of this crisis looking like a fool, he says the movement is a front for the Socialist Workers Party and blames “left-wing radicals”. It makes him sound like he’s on a rant and doesn’t want to hear about the issues surrounding the scheme. Another issue with the scheme is that once you’ve been on it for at least one week you have to stay on it otherwise you can lose benefits. This last point is what is causing all the fright amongst companies that were thinking of doing the scheme, if the government were to get rid that particular clause, both the businesses and the public would warm to the scheme and young people could be helped out.

This situation is not hard for the government to sort out and the fact that the issue has gone on for this long has shown the inherent problem with this government; it doesn’t have a good grasp of public opinion and doesn’t listen to the public. Both parties will pay at the next election if they keep it up.

Success in Somalia is far from Complete

After writing about Yemen on Sunday, today I go across the Gulf of Aden to Somalia. Somalia has been torn apart by a generation of violence and bloodshed. The violence has contributed to the harshness of the famine currently affecting much of Somalia. Tomorrow an international conference is held in London to discuss what should be done to deal with Somalia. Just like Yemen, Somalia is of strategic importance, it lies on a major trade route between Europe and the Far East as well as Australasia and the Indian Ocean, billions on barrels of oil flow through here every year. The country is also a problem as the area is one of the worst affected by piracy, Somali pirates raid many ships each year and cost the global economy billions of pounds! An international consensus on how to tackle the pirates is required to make the area safer, British crews in the UAE monitor much of the Gulf of Aden and surrounding waters and international crews investigate any disturbances. Yet the vastness of the area needing to be patrolled and the money that pirates can earn will make stamping out the piracy very difficult and very expensive. It’s not only the waters surrounding Somalia that are unsafe, people are frequently kidnapped from neighbouring countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia. The kidnappers mostly target white people (due to the chance of a higher ransom), last year a British man was kidnapped from his holiday villa on the Kenyan coast and many more have been kidnapped over the years.

African Union troops have managed to push insurgents
out of Mogadishu but they still have a lot of work left.

More importantly though than the security of shipping lanes, defence of trade and a few foreign people is the people of Somalia. Shebab insurgents have held the capital, Mogadishu, for a long time now and only today were African Union troops, led by a group of Ethiopians, able to push them back. The fighting is far from over, the Al-Qaeda allied insurgents have a strong following in the country, chiefly to do with the high level of poverty in Somalia. Just like Yemen, what Somalia needs is money and lots of it. But just like Yemen, nobody knows where the money will come from as the West is broke. The people of Mogadishu and other recently freed areas are only just beginning to rebuild a society that has been destroyed by years of perpetual warfare. I hope that the London conference can produce exactly what Somalia leads and spur the international community on to do some good for the Somali people.

Default Staved off... For Now.

Last night European leaders debated on whether or not to give Greeks the massive €130 billion bailout, they debated for 14 hours but finally announced that they would give the Greeks the money. The markets responded well to the news, but Greece is far from being in the clear. The kindest estimate suggests that Greek debt will go down to 120% of GDP in 2020, that’s eight years to get to an Italian level of debt. Other projections put them at 140%, if things are bumpy and 160% if things are bad. The 2020 estimates also include that the current level of austerity is maintained for eight years, we’ve seen how the Greeks in Athens reacted to the recent austerity bill. People would be mad to think that the Greeks will take more austerity lightly; how far down the path of violence will they go?  It’s certainly a dangerous situation that will probably get worse before it gets better. The approaching elections will also cause nervousness amongst the creditor nations such as Germany, the Netherlands and Finland as a new government could overturn the austerity package and take default. It would be like Lehman’s brother crash all over again, but the immediate result would be much more devastating for Europe, especially the remaining PIIGS countries.

Cracks are also beginning to emerge in the creditor nations over sticking to austerity. Members of Angela Merkel’s party are suggesting that an alternative to austerity is required. The leader of France’s presidential election is a socialist who wants stimulus, not austerity. Within a year austerity could be replaced with stimulus and then maybe Europe could enjoy American levels of growth! 

Yemen, the new Afghanistan?

In 2011 Ali Abdullah Saleh, the President of Yemen, announced his resignation after 30 years in power. Tomorrow (Tuesday 20^th of February) the Yemeni people will go to the poll to elect a new President, the problem… There’s only one candidate, the old Vice President, Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi, there’s no doubt that this isn’t very democratic but nonetheless most people are just delighted that the old president is gone. In most dictatorships, the dictator’s family is very important and Yemen is no exception, many of Saleh’s family control many areas of Yemen politics including army commanders. Getting rid of Saleh will require more work than many people think.

Yemen isn’t just an ordinary country though, although oil makes up 90% of its exports, it isn’t a major oil exporter (which is unusual considering its geographical location). Likely more oil will be discovered in future. Regardless of the oil it owns, it is one of three countries on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the others being Djibouti and Eritrea. The strait is incredibly important as it connects Europe to the Far East. The security of the strait ties Europe strongly to the country in the hope for oil and good links to the Far East. The even worse problem is this, Al Qaeda is very strong in the country and many fear that it could become the new Afghanistan. Al Qaeda is growing stronger by the day in Yemen, this core reason for this is the terrible poverty experienced by most Yemeni people, 500,000 children are at risk of dying from starvation and most people can barely feed themselves. If Yemen were to fall into Islamist hands it would be a devastating blow to the West’s “War on Terror” as having to deal with one Afghanistan is hard enough. After WWII America funded many European states through Marshall Aid. The point of the aid was to try and help Europe recover and to try and stop the Soviet advancement west-word. It worked, all countries that received Marshall Aid didn’t fall to Communism and began to grow and prosper. The problem now is, America is bust and so is the rest of the West. The only countries that could help to stop Yemen’s fall into anarchy would be the likes of China, and China is not threatened by Islamists.

Yemen is strategically located on the Gulf of Aden and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Ground Attack on Homs Imminent

There are worries that the Syrian Army is preparing to launch a ground assault on the battered city of Homs. For the past couple of weeks, government troops have been committing atrocities in Homs by shelling it with bombs and snipers have been taking out many civilians, not just rebels. Many people fear that the, already terrible, humanitarian crisis is just going to get worse, Syrian tanks have been converging on the city as well as many foot soldiers. A ground assault is probably imminent unless the international community does something. Russia and China have blocked the UN and the west has ruled out military action so it seems that nothing can be done. Russia needs to realise that foreign intervention in a country isn’t always bad, look to Libya, indeed it’s not perfect but it’s a lot better than what it would be if Gaddafi had stayed. All western nations need to remove their embassies from Damascus as a symbolic gesture, the British need to increase the number of military personnel at the army bases in Akrotiri and Dhekelia (British overseas territory in Cyprus), other NATO nations also need to strengthen their military presence in the Levant. We need to show Assad that we may be prepared to invade or use physical attack to stop his barbarous murder of civilians. Whether western governments are actually prepared to do so is irrelevant, we must pressure Assad with all the force we can.

Reports are coming out of Homs of the hospital being used by the army so the sick and dying can’t use it, regardless of how whether or not the army inflicted their illness. Three year old babies are murdered, this is the last resort of a dictator who will soon be gone.

I hope the west acts soon, or we may live to regret it. Do we really want another Kosovo?

Homs' proximity to the Lebanese border has allowed many people to escape and tell their stories.

A New Cold War?

The British foreign secretary William Hague has commented on the growing concern over Iran’s nuclear program. He said that “If Iran built an atomic bomb, it could trigger the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since nuclear weapons were invented.” Although the statement is probably exaggerated, as the proliferation immediately following WWII involved the two remaining super powers and was far more serious. It is still very dangerous, if Iran gets nuclear weapons then Saudi Arabia will likely also want to get them and may look to Pakistan for help and Egypt may also attempt to get them, but due to the current political turbulence in Egypt it will be unlikely for the foreseeable future. Syria has, in the past at least, attempted to get nuclear weapons, Iran is a close ally of Syria and would likely share the information they have. Although, like Egypt, the current turbulence in Syria would hinder any attempts.

Currently Israel is the only nation to have nuclear weapons in the Middle East and if Iran were to get nuclear weapons it could trigger the first use of nuclear weapons since WWII, this would devastate the world.

What the West needs to do is to try and stop Iran peacefully; a physical attack could infuriate the Iranian authorities and make a retaliatory attack more likely. Economic and other such sanctions are what the West must continue to do. Anything Iranian must be banned from entering Western markets and the West needs to encourage other countries to do the same. If this causes the economy of Iran to collapse it would mean that the nuclear program would be forced to shut down, countries with uranium should keep track of where their exports of the substance go. A physical attack on Iran would also have serious logistical issues as the location of where Iran is developing the bombs is heavily fortified and underground. A simple air attack would prove impossible; it would have to be a ground attack. This would be near impossible.

With the Cold War between west and east over for twenty years I hope that Iran won’t push us into another bitter Cold War. Hopefully outside pressures from all sides will dissuade a serious arms race, but with Iran being a complete rogue nation, nobody knows what the outcome will be.

William Hague's comment has heated up the debate on  Iran's nuclear program

The Future of Journalism

Today Murdoch flew in to deal with the crisis at the Sun newspaper. But what is the wider implication for the press in the UK of this scandal? Investigative journalism is required for a democracy to work properly, without them, politicians would not be kept in check and dirty deals could be done easily. So journalists are required, but that doesn’t mean the press will always be required. I don’t believe that the press will completely disappear from this country, but I do believe that its influence will significantly wane over the next few years. Unlike at the turn of the 20^th century, when the press was the only way to get news, there are two major sources that the public get their news, television and the internet today. Both are currently thriving and the internet is sky rocketing, broadband speeds are soaring and many more people have access to it than did a decade ago. Online journalism could be very profitable if companies use it right and it has huge advantages over conventional press and TV.

Most websites have a search function, this means that people can find information instantly, without having to flick through a newspaper to find the information they want isn’t there or listen to a 30 minute long news report to find another lack of information. Another advantage is websites can be updated very fast, as soon as new information becomes available or a story breaks a website can put it up in minutes, whereas TV needs to wait until their next news report and the press have to wait until the next day to report. Also people share internet stories on Facebook or Twitter, which allows the report to go viral. Another huge benefit of online is that people view it as “free” (ignoring broadband costs and buying a computer) whereas newspapers cost money. Websites can still make a lot of money through advertisements and if they successfully attract users can make a lot of money.

Over the next decade journalism will go through seismic changes, hastened by the Leveson Inquiry which is dredging up nasty details and as police investigations find out what really went on in News Corporation. Personally I will mourn the loss of the broadsheets like the Guardian and Independent as they are fantastic newspapers that do their democratic duties.

Democracy

Liberty, Equality, Fraternity

Those three words are synonymous with the first French revolution, when France began its long, hard struggle for freedom. In the present day many countries are fully democratic, all of Europe, with the exception of Belarus, is democratic and so is most of the Americas. Asia and Africa aren’t so lucky; most nations there are openly dictatorships or are phoney democracies like North Korea or the People’s Republic of China. When Europe and the Americas began to move from dictatorships to republics and democracies in the 20^th century the only nations around that were democratic and powerful were France, the UK and the USA. Now there are many more democratic nations and we need to help people in other countries achieve democracy. The revolts and revolutions in 2011 can be seen as a global democratic awakening and the west must stop backing tyrants and start backing people.

This awakening is being spurned on by social media, the internet has never been so important. That’s why it is fantastic that SOPA, PIPA and ACTA have been defeated (the last being European) as they would have threatened activists around the world. One of the most important organisations in sparking the awakening of democracy (and a re-awakening in the western nations), is called Avaaz. The organisation campaigns on all sorts of issues, from phone hacking in the UK, corruption in India and supporting protesters in the Arab world.  This community has grown immensely in the past few years to over 13 million people and is making a real difference. Avaaz has smuggled over $1.8 million of medical supplies into Syria, helped to defeat SOPA with a 3.5 million strong petition and persuaded governments to retract support from Mubarak. The community will only grow in strength and is a real tool of people power, gone are the days when shady deals can be done, when the media is controlled by a few moguls. The internet is the greatest weapon for democracy as it is owned by the people, not a person.

I would advise everybody to join Avaaz; it will only take a couple of minutes of your life. But know that if you do, you will be helping millions towards a better life. Click here to join.

The State of the UK Economy

On Monday the UK was put on negative watch by the credit ratings agency, Moody’s. This means that the UK has a 30% change of losing its AAA rating within 18 months, Austria and France were also put on negative watch. Moody’s’ main reason for doing so was the flat growth for about a year now and little prospect of a recovery. Moody’s said the prospect for growth in the UK economy is weak and is weakening. The chancellor has taken this opportunity to say that there must be no deviation from his policy of austerity. Despite the fact that Europe, which has had austerity is flat lining and America, where there’s been a stimulus is growing healthily. Osborne is spreading a lie that he is getting government expenditure under control, even though the UK has the highest rate of borrowing of the vast majority of western nations.

The chancellor wants to balance the books, away from borrowing and towards manufacture. I completely agree with him, this is exactly what we need to do. But he’s doing it in a very strange way, manufacturing will not magically appear out of thin air, the government needs to try and stimulate the economy so manufacturing will start up. Instead the government is trying austerity and it’s not working. In the last comparable financial crash (1929) they tried austerity first and it bankrupted the world which led to the rise of European dictatorships, Hitler and WWII. By the time they got the crisis under control (through stimulus) it was too late.  Personally I don’t believe there’s much chance of dictatorships rising again; I do believe that the UK economy will not recover for a long, long time if Osborne continues with harsh austerity measures.

Osborne needs to look to Obama and copy him, not Merkel.

Greece Needs a Stresemann

In 1923 Germany was experiencing hyperinflation and its economy was in tatters. Then along came Gustav Stresemann who turned Germany around, brought down its debt and saved the country from complete collapse. Six years later he died, just weeks before the Wall Street Crash, if he had lived Hitler may never have risen to power and WWII wouldn’t, therefore, have happened.

This is exactly who Greece needs right now, the country is collapsing, the politicians are inept, the Eurozone leaders don’t know what to do and everyone is panicking. The riots yesterday show that Greeks aren’t prepared to take more austerity and any attempt to get another package through parliament could spell revolution. The middle class, working class and business class are united in their opposition to the government’s austerity plans. Of 300 MPs, 101 voted against the measures or did not attend parliament, Greece simply cannot take more austerity. If new elections were to produce a Stresemann then the panic could end, but the chance of that is small. Instead of a Stresemann, all Greece needs is a strong leader who will stand up to Merkel and Sarkozy and say no to more austerity. Germany needs to realise that in order to keep the Euro alive they must finance the Greek recovery. Otherwise the inevitable default would change Greece into a wrecking ball destroying Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, sending the world into recession and the Euro into history.

Germany needs to look to America, the USA has one of the largest deficits of any western nations, yet it is managing to grow. This is largely due to Obama’s stimulus package. Look to Ireland, so far Ireland has taken austerity well (in that there have been no major protests or riots) and yet its economy is still faltering and it could head back into recession if something isn’t done. Germany needs to end its experiment with austerity and change course to prosperity through a stimulus package. Four years of austerity has only produced perpetual recession in Greece, little economic growth in Europe and a decline in European influence. For the sake of this continent Merkel needs to wake up and stop the austerity.  

The man who saved Germany in 1923, Gustav Stresemann. Unless Greece or Europe finds a similarly able politician collapse is almost inevitable

Sun Crisis Deepens

Today another twist occurred in the crisis at The Sun; Trevor Kavanagh, its associate editor, launched a scathing attack on the police. He called the arrests of five senior journalists heavy handed, out of proportion and an attack on freedom of speech. Many reporters at the Sun feel like they are being unfairly treated, they believe that their colleagues are being arrested because they did their job. They also feel betrayed by their News Corporation bosses and fear for their jobs, even though Rupert Murdoch has promised to keep the newspaper open, unlike its sister paper, News of the World. Kavanagh believes that the company has deliberately framed the recently arrested journalists to get out of jail themselves. This is a very serious accusation.

My feeling is quite the opposite, the police investigate crimes and the reporters at the Sun are being investigated by the police. Everyone in the country should be subject to the same laws, no special privileges for one profession or another. If reporters are guilty of corruption, then they should be sent to prison like everyone else. This claim that it attacks the freedom of the press is ridiculous and just plain silly, News Corporation are trying to turn public opinion against the police by calling the investigation a “witch hunt”. We all know why they want the investigation to stop, the further the police delve the more dirt they will find on Sun reporters. This could do a further blow to the Sun in a time when newspaper circulations are in perpetual decline.

Yet the virus that began with 2011’s hacking scandal hasn’t stopped at the Sun, it has spread to America too. In the States there is a law called the “Foreign Corrupt Practices Act” concerning bribery of foreign officials and other illegal activities, the FBI is looking into both the hacking at the News of the World and the bribery claims at the Sun. This could significantly damage Murdoch in the USA, many in his American press and media companies want him to let the UK companies go as the Americans feel they are being dragged down by the revelations about their British counterparts.

Regardless of what happens as a result of these arrests, Murdoch’s media empire is collapsing with the UK being the first country to lose his slimy grip. When it does, I will celebrate. 

Crisis in Greece Deepens

Tonight Greece experienced its worst riots in months after parliament passed the new austerity measures forced on their government by the EU. Greece needed to pass the €3.3 billion of cuts in order to get a €130 billion bailout from the EU to avoid defaulting on its debts and exiting the Eurozone. Recovery is nowhere near the future for Greece, its bond yield is at 34% (the ‘danger zone’ is around 7%) and its economy is deep in recession. Unemployment stands at around 17%, the cuts will add even more people to the unemployment register, pushing Greece further into recession.

Rioters in Athens are fed up with the austerity imposed on them

Greeks are getting fed up with the cuts imposed on their country. They feel like democracy does not exist any longer and that the Eurozone leaders, particularly Angela Merkel, are the dictating Greek economic policies. Although Eurozone leaders rightfully fear the dangers of a Greek default and exit from the Euro, the damage it would do to many of Europe’s banks and how the contagion could spread to other weak countries such as Italy and Spain. The danger is that these cuts will put Greece in a position from which it will not recover for a generation, if ever. Merkel and Sarkozy need to be wary of the damage their cuts to Greek spending could do to the wider Eurozone.

Scandal at the Sun

 Ever since the phone hacking scandal erupted last year, Rupert Murdoch has been mired in scandal after scandal. The most recent was at the Sun, one of his most important newspapers. Yesterday five senior journalists were arrested; this included chief reporter, John Kay, picture editor, John Edwards, foreign correspondent Nick Parker, reporter, John Sturgis, and even the deputy editor, Geoff Webster. The newspaper’s owner, Rupert Murdoch has stated that unlike its sister newspaper, the News of the World, the Sun will not be closed. Today’s arrests were not only significant because of the journalists arrested; an army officer, policeman and civil servant were also arrested. This is the first time that such arrests have been made under Operation Elveden, which is investigating illegal payments by journalists to get information. This crisis occurs during the Leveson Inquiry into press standards, which was set up after the fallout from the original scandal at NOTW. This, combined with evidence of harassment of people by journalists only further proves that there needs to be some sort of regulation of the press. This would not harm free speech, but strengthen the rights of individuals to privacy. The only reason you hear the likes of Paul Dacre claiming it would harm free speech is because of nasty practices going on in the Daily Mail, a newspaper which has been accused of dabbling in illegal activities by a number of high profile names.

We won’t know for a long time what the full extent of illegal activities at newspapers was, but unless a press regulator is created with real power, we will be looking at another press scandal in the future. This saga has shown that the press, particularly the tabloids, to be untrustworthy and must be dealt with harshly.

The Sun is the latest Murdoch newspaper to be mired in scandal

NHS Reforms

Today it was revealed that three cabinet ministers had approached the unofficial conservativehome website and told them of their opposition to the Health and Social Care Bill. This comes just days after a Downing Street aide said that Andrew Lansley “should be taken out and shot” for alienating doctors and nurses. This isn’t the first piece of opposition that the reforms have experienced, the Labour Party has always denounced the reforms, Liberal Democrats have been uneasy about them and there’s been huge opposition from professional groups such as the BMA (British Medical Association) and the Royal College of Nursing. The reforms have also got little public support, many people fear that the bill threatens the founding dream of the NHS and it begins the process of privatisation.

I oppose the reforms wholeheartedly as I believe the NHS is best kept safe in public hands. Inclusion of private companies will drive up the cost of healthcare, not down. This can be easily seen in worldwide trends, the more private sector involvement, the more expensive the healthcare. I also feel that this current government has absolutely no mandate for reform of the NHS, firstly the government promised us “No top-down re-organisation of the NHS”, despite this ‘promise’ the government is scrapping PCTs (Primary Care Trusts) which control around 80% of the NHS budget, if this isn’t a “top-down re-organisation” then I don’t know what is! Also, as the below Conservative campaign poster shows, David Cameron promised not to cut the NHS but he is already hacking at the NHS budget.

One of the biggest parts of the Health and Social Care Bill is that power will be put in the hands of GPs. Despite this GPs are not convinced and the vast majority of them oppose the bill, GPs believe that they will have less time for patients, and they are doctors, not administrators or managers. They feel that time with patients is already squeezed and taking even more time from dealing with patients would destroy one of the main pillars of the NHS.

One of the cabinet ministers who contacted conservativehome told them that he/she thought Andrew Lansley should resign over the bill. He has made himself unpopular among everyone on the left, most of the medical and nursing professions and now on the conservative side too. One Conservative minster even compared the bill to Margaret Thatcher’s Poll Tax. It is difficult to imagine him surviving until the next election. One of the biggest worries that the ministers had was that the issue would damage the Conservative's credibility at the next election in dealing with the NHS. The bill has very little support from the general public and unless it is dropped could fatally wound the Conservatives at the next election.

This bill divided the cabinet decisively between Lib Dem and Conservative, it could have helped to end the coalition. But with Conservative ministers joining the growing opposition, it may not split the coalition just yet. We'll have to wait to see.

Scottish Independence

Why should Scotland be Independent? According to Alex Salmond it would benefit both Scotland and the rest of the UK, but is this true? If you calculate the amount of money made through Scotland (including North Sea oil) and deduct the amount of money spent by the Scottish government, there is a £13,000,000,000 (13 billion) deficit. Of course it is true that the whole of the UK is in debt, but it is worse in Scotland. If Scotland were to become independent there would be huge difficulties in deciding who gets what. There’s the gold in the bank of England, how much of that would Scotland get? Also, would Scotland be in the EU? The SNP seem to think that because Scotland is currently a member through the UK that it would not have to re-join, but a letter from the EU seems to suggest that they would have to re-apply. It is also well-known that the SNP want to join the Euro at some point, but immediately after the break-up would they stick with pound sterling? The chancellor, George Osborne, seems to suggest that he would make it difficult for Scotland to do so. It would upset Scottish unionists if security checks were set up along the Scottish-English border, this effectively bans Scotland from joining the Schengen Area.

Another important question for Scotland is how much of the UK debt would they take on. Currently the UK’s debt stands at £1 trillion (£1,000,000,000,000) or roughly £16,000 per person. Is that how much Scotland would take on, or would she take on slightly more or slightly less.

The national identity will play a large role in the referendum. Scotland has been part of the Union since 1707 and has contributed to many aspects of the UK. Many Prime Ministers and other prominent politicians were and are from Scottish. It was the United Kingdom that stood alone in Europe in WWII against the Axis, it was the United Kingdom that enjoyed the Pax Britannica and held the largest Empire, and it was the United Kingdom that fought against slavery the hardest during the 19^th century. The United Kingdom is strong as one and would be weak apart.

If the referendum was held tomorrow I doubt that the Scottish would vote for independence, as the opinion polls show strong favour towards maintaining the union. My worry is that Alex Salmond will continue his campaign that is filled with lies and half-truths, such as Scotland being in surplus whereas it is actually in deficit. He could convince the Scottish people of the independence cause and the union would be defeated. What a sad day that would be.

I am pro-union and believe that Scotland would be worse-off outside the United Kingdom and England, Wales and Northern Ireland would be worse-off without Scotland.

The Flag of an independent Scotland

Empires Today

In 1997 the British handed Hong Kong back to Chinese, with a population of around 5 million this was the last major colony of any country. But the old colonial empires are not totally gone, their remnants still exist and although they are small, they do have major benefits for the countries that own them. Officially the only countries which still have empires are France and the UK, the USA also has areas similar to an Empire, but is not considered to be so. The UK has territories in the Mediterranean, Caribbean, Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans. These are mostly small islands with relatively small populations; the total population of all 17 is around 510,000 people. The benefit for the UK is not the people, but the location, being scattered across the globe means the UK can place military bases around the world. Akrotiri and Dhekeli and the creatively named British Indian Ocean Territory are mostly military bases. By nature of them being islands they significantly increase the size of the UK’s EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone), this is the area over which a state has special rights on exploration or the use of marine resources and extends up to 200 nautical miles from the coast. The UK has 6.8 million km² of EEZ, mainly thanks to the overseas territories. This means that any oil found in that area would benefit the UK greatly.

France also benefits significantly from the remnants of the era of Empires although the system through which France governs them is more complicated than the UK. Contrary to what most people believe, parts of France are outside of Europe, such as French Guiana in South America. These are actually part of France in the same way that Paris and Marseilles are. France also has territories which are not part of France and she governs them similar to hoe the UK governs her overseas territories. France experiences significant benefits just like the UK from its overseas territories such as the ability to put military bases in any ocean and benefits from a huge EEZ, the second largest in the world!

Other countries have remnants of their colonial empires, parts of the Netherlands are in the Caribbean and Portugal owns a number of Atlantic islands. Norway controls a small island in the south Atlantic called Bouvet Island, Denmark controls Greenland and the Faroe Islands and Spain owns a few Atlantic islands. Even the USA owns a few islands in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean. All these countries benefit significantly from the control of overseas territories. This scattering of islands owned by the west on every continent and in every ocean gives the west an advantage that the east will never be able to get. China and India will only be able to place military bases where they please if they harbour good relations with other countries.

The age of empires is long gone, but the legacy of that era still influences the world today. 

Russia and China be Ashamed

With further killing in Homs today and yesterday the death toll keeps rising. The disgraceful behaviour of the Assad regime show that they are losing control and that the country will soon descend into chaos. The UN could have done something, but Russia and Chinas' Vetoes have paralysed the UN. Assad now feels invincible, with outside intervention seeming impossible and good relations with two major powers it's easy to see why.

Reports coming out of Homs, from trustworthy sources such as the BBC, have told us that rockets have been fired at Homs. This is the first time that the Syrian regime has done so which highlights its increasing desperation. It was horrible to watch people burying a child at night without ceremony or even prayers as it is too dangerous. The area of Baba Amr has been the worst hit area and local residents fear a ground assault is imminent. They are scared, the veto at the UN makes them feel like they have no friends and that there will be nothing to stop the brutality of the Syrian Army when they arrive.

So what can be done? There have been talks between the French and the British over a possible "Friends of Syria" alliance of the Arab League plus, France, the UK and a few other western nations. The problem with this is that it would have no real power, as to do anything they'd have to take it to the UN Security Council were China and Russia would likely veto any attempts. The tightening of sanctions on Syria will not do much to help the civilians and any attempt to sell arms to the rebels is blocked by the EU arms embargo. So, for now, the outside world is paralysed and nobody really knows what to do.

China and Russia cite the reason for wielding their vetoes is that it would cause civil war... This makes little sense as the reality is that Syria is already in Civil War, except one side is very poorly equipped. China and Russia also claim that Assad going would cause instability, this is quite the opposite as the protests would die down (although probably only temporarily) if he were to give up power.  They also point to Libya as being an example of "failure" despite being a resounding success on all fronts, maybe they intended to point to Egypt? It's also important to point out the importance of Syria to Russia, the two countries have been long standing allies and Syria buys many of their weapons from Russia, Russia also has a military base in Syria which it probably wants to maintain. Coincidence? I don't think so.

Regardless of their reasons, Russia and China have the blood of innocent civilians on their hands. Including children.

Nuclear Weapons

Since 1945, when America destroyed two Japanese cities, nuclear weapons have been central to negotiations between west and east. When the Cold War ended in the early 1990s, helped by the breakup of the USSR and Warsaw Pact, the amount of nuclear warheads has subsequently decreased significantly. To understand the place of nuclear weapons in the modern world we need to know which countries have nuclear weapons and which countries want them.

The five permanent UN Security Council members have their own weapons which they control independently (China, France, Russia, UK, USA) and are members of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty). Non-NPT members who have declared that they have weapons are India, Pakistan and North Korea. Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Turkey have a nuclear sharing programme organised through NATO. Israel is known to have nuclear weapons, but refuses to declare this. There is strong evidence that Iran is attempting to get nuclear weapons but she denies this.

There have always been campaigns against nuclear weapons, especially in the west through CND and other anti-Nuclear organisations. The reason why the west has nuclear weapons is as a deterrent against aggressive regimes such as Iran and North Korea. I believe that all the signatories of the NPT and the non-signatories Pakistan and India would not fire weapons at a country, provoked or un-provoked. I cannot say the same for Iran and North Korea, they are rogue nations which appear to want to destroy other countries without thought for the consequences. Iran is particularly dangerous as it has promised that if Iran gets nuclear weapons it will obliterate Israel. Also, due to the religious beliefs of many Iranians, they may not mind if firing nuclear weapons at Israel results in the death of half their population after a retaliatory attack. This is very dangerous for our world and the NWS (Nuclear Weapon States) must keep their weapons as a deterrent against Iran and North Korea. Not only do nuclear weapons dissuade other countries from firing or getting them, it also dissuades them from attacking or invading other countries unprovoked and because of this nuclear warheads can be said to be helping to maintain world peace.

I believe that no nation should have nuclear warheads but in an imperfect world, the west would not be safe without them.

Light blue - NWS & NPT
Dark blue - Nuclear sharing (NATO)
Red - Declared NWS non-NPT
Black - suspected of attempting to get weapons
Yellow - Got weapons but does not declare
Green - ex-nuclear weapon states

The Falklands

With Tensions between Britain and Argentina running at the highest in decades and the 30^th anniversary of the Falklands War approaching the Falklands is being given a lot of media attention.

The Falklands first came to the attention of the British public in 1982 when Argentina invaded the small island group, ever since they have remained one of Britain’s best known overseas territories.

The Argentinians have no real claim to own the Falkland Islands other than proximity, they are closer to Argentina than to us, but then again Alaska is closer to Canada than it is to the rest of the USA. Does that mean Alaska should be Canadian? No. The closest that the Argentinians have to a legitimate claim is that the Spanish, the old colonial owners of Argentina, also controlled the islands (although only for a very brief period). Ever since 1833 the Falklands have remained under British control.

The most important issue is what do the Falkland Islanders want, if they want to be part of Argentina then the British government should let them be. But that is not the case, the Falkland Islanders (the vast majority being of British descent) want to remain an overseas territory of the UK and not part of Argentina. People often accuse the British of refusing to enter negotiations with Argentina over the Falkands, and although this is true of the past few years it was the Argentinians that refused negotiations in the decades preceding the Falklands War. In reality the only way in which the UK will ever hand the Falklands to Argentina is if the Falkland islanders want to become part of Argentina. A referendum might seem like a good idea, as it could show Argentina the strength of the Falkland Islanders’ resolve. This is very similar to what happened in Gibraltar, the British dependency attached to Spain. There has twice been a referendum on whether to become Spanish or not, and in both referendums the Gibraltans rejected the idea by 99+% and still the Spanish want to force the issue with the UK. A referendum in the Falklands would probably be a waste of time and money.

Some people have suggested that the Falklands should become independent; this is something that the Islanders also reject and would probably be a bad idea for the island group who benefit greatly from having Britain on side against Argentina. Another idea I heard was suggested by one of the panellists on Question Time. She suggested that the UK should bring the Falklands into the Union, thereby making the UK’s full title “The United Kingdom of Great Britain, Northern Ireland and the Falkland Islands”, despite the length of the name it wouldn’t make much sense. The electorate would be tiny (the island has a population of around 3,000) and getting from Westminster to the Falklands would be expensive and very exhausting for the MP. And this is something else that the Islanders do not want.

The anniversary of the Falklands War is not the only reason why tensions are rising in the region, the discovery of oil in the area surrounding the Falklands will bring significant economic benefits to whichever country control the islands. The government in Argentina is weakening, taking a tough stance over the Falkland Islands is a vote winner in the country. It doesn’t help that Mercosur, the South American economic bloc, has banned ships flying the Falklands flag from entering their ports (a grand total of around 20 ships), even though the ships can use the Union Flag if they wish and enter the ports. The British government doesn’t help the situation by sending down Prince William and a war ship, it’s not the best thing to do since nobody honestly expects Argentina to invade again.

In this debate I’m not necessarily on the “British side”, I believe in self-determination and that the people of the Falklands should decide who governs them.  The current situation is the way they want and the arrangement will remain until the Falkland Islanders want something different.

The Falkland Islands' proximity to Argentina is the only claim that Argentina have.

Massacre in Homs

The world was outraged by the massacre of anti-government protesters in the city of Homs. Over 200 people are dead according to activists. This latest, bitter twist in Syria comes just days before the UN Security Council meets and decides on whether to demand Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, to step down due to the continued violence in his country and the cruel crackdown on protesters. Despite thousands of deaths, huge amounts of people still come out on the streets and protest against Assad’s rule, but nonetheless he stays in power even though support is declining internally and internationally. The EU and America have placed sanctions on Syria, but as long as this does not get the backing of China, Russia and, to a lesser extent, Iran the sanctions will not be effective enough to drive Assad from power. There is growing demand in the Arab world for the resignation of Assad too, in Tunisia the government expelled Syria’s ambassador and said it no longer recognised Assad’s right to rule due to the massacre and on-going crackdown on protesters.

Yet Russia still maintains that if the UN Security Council were to vote to demand Assad’s resignation, it would cause a civil war, this claim is of course preposterous. If Assad were to go it would significantly help to restore order to Syria. The French foreign minister, Alain Juppe called the attacks a crime against humanity and that “those who block the adoption of such a resolution are taking a grave historical responsibility”. The statement is a clear swipe against Russia and its stance.

The question a lot of people are asking is why is Russia backing Syria? What does it get? Something I would point to would be the result of the Libyan conflict, firstly the West got exactly what it wanted and this made Russia look stupid, especially when the conflict ended so well for the West and their Libyan allies. The second point is that many in Russia believe that NATO overstepped the mark in Libya and Russia believes that NATO was not defending civilians, but rather it was attempting to overthrow Gaddafi. Although this is probably true, the West should make no apology for what they did in Libya in defence of democracy and human rights.

Russia is currently playing politics with the lives of innocent civilians and I hope they do what is right, before it is too late. 

A Syrian Protester demanding UN action

Chris Huhne

Yesterday Chris Huhne was formally charged by the Crown Prosecution Services for perverting the course of justice. It is claimed that he let his ex-wife take speeding points to save him from a driving ban back in 2003. It only came to light since the couple’s divorce last year and has resulted in the destruction of Huhne’s political career. After it was announced that he would be charged, he resigned as Energy and Climate Change secretary so that he could concentrate on clearing his name. No doubt he will be missed by many Liberal Democrats, he was known for being forceful and very passionate about what he believed in. He has got into many spats with his Conservative colleagues in the coalition and many Lib Dems actually liked this as they felt that he was making sure their voice was heard by government. Nick Clegg said he was sad to see Chris Huhne go and so did David Cameron, but unlike the PM, many Conservatives are probably glad to see him go as he was viewed by many of them as a thorn in their side. If Huhne does not clear his name, he will likely go to prison and this would result in a by-election in his constituency. This could cause problems for the coalition as it is a Conservative-Lib Dem marginal seat and a scrap to get elected in the seat could cause irreparable damage to the government.

Chris Huhne announcing his resignation yesterday

Policing Board's Annual Human Rights Report

Yesterday the Northern Ireland Policing Board launched their seventh annual human rights report in Derry/Londonderry. The occasion was styled as a “let’s talk” event with a panel of representatives from the Policing Board and Matt Baggott, the chief constable for the PSNI (Police Service of Northern Ireland). During the debate, Baggott defended the intelligence services when a Republican on the panel and a few members of the floor called them the “dark side” of policing. Baggott repudiated with the statement that “If it hadn't been for intelligence, we would have had cases of mass murder in Northern Ireland [in 2011]”. This is a frightening idea as the only bomb in 2011 to claim a life was that of police officer Ronan Kerr. The rest only caused inconvenience and minor damage. It is scary to think that there are still people who want to return Northern Ireland to the violence and fear of the Troubles. I agree with Baggott in that people should not compare the intelligence services to the dark side as it does not help anyone and only increases resentment in communities (particularly nationalist ones) towards the police force. As Mick Fealty said on Twitter “The last 25 minutes have been brought to you by Star Wars…”

The issue around “punishment” attacks also arose during the debate and, as the Republican representative rightly pointed out, we should not call them “punishment attacks” as the word punishment implies that the person has done something to deserve the attack, which is not true. Another issue brought up was that of the re-hiring of retired RUC officers, Baggott said that ex-RUC officers who refused to co-operate with investigations into the past should not be re-hired.

The PSNI has come a long way in the past decade, but there is still plenty of work to be done to truly bring the two communities of Northern Ireland together into one.

2011: A Year in Review

I know it's a bit late but I began writing this a few weeks ago but I was extremely busy and I could only get around to publishing it now.

In my view 2011 has been one of the most important years in a long time. Certainly the most important one since I was born in 1993. Some people have compared 2011 to the late 80s/early 90s when the USSR and Warsaw Pact broke up, or the 1848 revolutions in Europe. Personally I hope it's more successful than 1848 as (with the exception of France) they started off successfully but ended in disaster. The economic crisis that began in 2007 is still hurting five years later and nothing seems to be getting better. People are growing tired of seeing others get rich unfairly whilst they are unable to get out of poverty.

2011 saw one of the biggest press scandals in history, once-in-a-century revolutions, the destructive forces or mother nature and the continuation of the worst economic crisis since the depression of the 1830s and the longest lasting one in living memory. So just an ordinary year then I guess?

A Year of Revolution and Protest

 This year was the year the world rebelled. It started with the Arab Spring, with every Arab country experiencing some sort of unrest. The Arab Spring would later inspire the Occupy Movement and the protests in Moscow.

It all began with a street vendor in Tunisia, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in protest to the police taking away his wares. Although he later died, his action sparked major protests in Tunisia which saw the overthrow of the President. These revolutionary protests later swept through the Arab world, overthrowing Egypt’s government and causing civil war in Libya which resulted in Colonel Gaddafi being killed. Revolts in Bahrain were crushed by Bahraini police and Saudi Arabian troops. A Bahraini commissioned report accused the government of committing human rights violations. The fact that this report got published is hopefully the first signs of reform. Protests in Syria are still on-going though and the government continues to crackdown harshly on protests. With China and Russia blocking any moves towards a UN resolution, it is difficult to estimate when or how the current stalemate will end.

A map of the Arab Spring.

Navy indicates government overthrown

Dark blue indicated sustained civil disorder and governmental changes

Light blue indicates protests and governmental changes

Orange indicates major protests

Sand-like colour indicates minor protests

Protests were not confined to the Arab world; many other countries experienced the Occupy movement. It started out on Wall Street, but it did not take long for the protests to go global with Occupy movements springing up in London, Hong Kong, Rio de Janeiro and hundreds of other cities. The movement protests against the inequalities that exist in society. Slogans such as “We are the 99%” prompted many important questions for politicians to answer. The slogan comes from the fact that the richest 1% of people earn a disproportionate amount of money, in the USA the 1% earn around 40% of the entire nations wealth! This won’t be an easy battle for the Occupy movement; it would only take a few of the 1% to launch an effective propaganda campaign against the movement. But it would be wrong to brand all of the 1% as elites; Bill Gates is a well-known philanthropist who donates much of his money to charity work across the globe and there are many more like him.

Another major protest in 2011 was in Russia, after the state elections in December around 50,000 people crowded onto an island near the Kremlin and accused the elections of being rigged. This was despite the fact that the government had suffered severe losses in the elections. Despite this, European and American officials who watched over the elections supported the protesters’ view that the elections had been rigged in favour of the Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s party. The protests in Moscow were the biggest since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 90s. With Putin looking to run for presidency this has certainly damaged his chances.

With many of these protests still on going, 2012 will also be an important for many countries in both the Arab world and beyond.

Crowds in Tahrir Square, Cairo.