Monday 23 July 2012

The Battle for Syria is Turning

As the civil war in Syria grows ever bloodier, the end would appear in sight.

Earlier this week a bomb blasted through the national security headquarters in Damascus. The explosion killed the defence minister and a former military chief. Assad's close friend and brother-in-law, Adsef Shawkat was also killed by rebels. He was a powerful figure in the regime who will be dearly missed. For the rebels and the West his death was of huge benefit. Although their positions were immediately filled, the personal loyalty and close-knit feel of the upper echelons is the Syrian regime make them irreplaceable.

Their deaths also mark a major turning point for the rebels. They are finally taking out high profile members of Assad's government, army and family. Who will be the next to be killed? Considering the location of the bomb, it indicates infiltration into the beating heart of government. We already know that there have been generals and other high-profile army personnel defecting, this bomb would suggest that people working for the regime are turned as well. The question is: How far does the infiltration go?

The problem with high profile defections and assassinations is that Assad may get more and more desperate. Could he flatten whole towns and disloyal districts? The west and north west are rapidly becoming no-go areas of Syria for the armed forces. Could Assad start using chemical or biological weapons? Although this is an option, it is unlikely to be used as doing so could anger the West into action (UN sanctioned or not) and lose Syria her last major ally, Russia.

The noose is tightening around the regime's neck, it is only a matter of time now until Assad goes, the question is how long? The fear is, the Battle for Syria could grow bloodier.

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