Sunday 4 August 2013

Old World Order - Italy

Population: 61 million
Area: 301,000km2
GDP: $2.2 trillion
GDP (per capita): $33,000
United Nations Security Council Veto: No

In the late 1800s the Italian mini-states and city states were unified by the Kingdom of Piedmont into one country. The newly unified Italy was immediately powerful and over the next 100 years expanded its influence and power. Italy ended up on the right side of WWI, but thanks to the leadership of fascist Mussolini, was on the wrong side of WWII. In the years immediately following WWII the Italian economy grew very well, and although it had lost influence, still did rather well as a country.

The Italy of today is still relatively powerful, although not a great power. It has the 10th largest military expenditure in the world and the 8th largest economy. As in the case of Germany, Japan and France, a problem for Italy in its future is population decline. Currently Italy is the 23rd largest country in the world with 61 million pepole, by 2050 that is expected to have shrunk to 60 million people making it the 29th largest. This decline puts huge pressure on Italy, as time goes by its working population will decrease whilst the retired population will increase. This will mean more people will be collecting pensions and put more pressure on healthcare whilst tax receipts will decline as there are fewer people working.

Politics in Italy is also problematic as it is by far the most corrupt of the nations I am reviewing. Italian politicians of all sorts get generous pay cheques, the mayor of Bolzano (a city of roughly 100,000)gets paid more than Barack Obama. Not helping the cause is Silvio Berlusconi who kept up a political career despite having sex with numerous prostitutes, some of whom were minors.

Italy also has to deal with secessionist movements in the north (sometimes referred to as Padania), Sardinia and Sicily. In Sardinia polls show up to 40% of Sardinians supporting independence. Whilst Lega Nord (a pro-Padania party in the north) is the largest party in the Veneto and enjoys strong support in other regions such as Lombardy and Piedmont. Dealing with secessionist movements is always difficult, improving the economy tends to help, as does increasing the autonomy regions have. The north of Italy is much wealthier than the south and many northerners feel that they are subsidising the poorer south. A lot of grievances could be eased if the south was economically vitalised. There are major problems with this, the south has been poorer than the south for centuries, so the inequality is structural and would require a lot of capital. Capital that Italy simply does not have.

Italian finances are in a horrific state, its debt to GDP ratio is 126%, the 2nd highest in the Western world and the 8th overall. To make matters worse Italy is one of the European PIIGS countries that needs help from its northern neighbours. Italy needs serious financial reform (a good start would be slashing politicians' pay) and money to stimulate its economy.

So Italy faces three key problems; an ageing and declining population, strong secessionist movements and a crumbling economy.

Starting to notice a pattern of problems with Western nations?

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