2014 Senate Elections Update

I posted about the 2014 Senate elections back in February, since plenty has changed since then I decided to make another post, updating you on how things are going down.

Kentucky - A lot has changed in Kentucky since February. Ashley Judd decided not to enter the race, but all is not lost for the Democrats! The current Secretary of State of Kentucky, Alison Lundergan Grimes, has decided to run for Senate on the Democratic side. Current polling shows her and Senator McConnell with roughly equal amounts of support. To make matters worse for McConnell, he also has to worry about being primaried from the Tea Party. This means he will have to spend time, effort and, crucially, money trying to fend off this attack, when he really needs to concentrate on the attack from Grimes.

Maine - Much to the disappointment of Democrats, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins has decided to run for re-election. This means that Democrats will probably be unable to flip the seat unless Collins gets successfully primaried by the Tea Party.

Massachusetts - As expected, Jeff Markey won the special election in June to replace John Kerry, beating the Republican candidate 55 - 45. This puts him in a strong position for 2014.

Michigan - Carl Levin's retirement made Republicans excited about the potential pick-up in the blue state. That excitement has since dissipated as they have been unable to recruit a strong candidate, whilst the Democrats have found a good candidate in Congressman Gary Peters. 

Montana - When I posted in February, Senator Max Baucus was going to run for re-election and so I was confident in predicting that Montana would stay blue. The problem is, Baucus has decided to retire. this would not have been a problem if former governor Brian Schweitzer had decided to run, but he has declined. (this indicates to me that he will run in the 2016 Presidential election). Regardless, this opens Montana to the Republicans.

New Jersey - Senator Frank Lautenberg was planning to retire in 2014, but unfortunately he died in June. Although you might not think this affects the race much, it could have serious implications for what happens in 2014. There will be a special election held in October of this year to replace Lautenberg. This means that in 2014 it will not be an open race, as there will be an incumbent Senator. Current polling puts Cory Booker (the Democratic nominee) well out in front of Steve Lonegan (the Republican nominee). A recent Quinnipiac poll puts Booker on 54% and Lonegan on 29%.

South Carolina - I did not write about South Carolina back in February as the races were largely uninteresting. Tim Scott was expected to easily win his special election and Lindsey Graham was expected to win his normal election. Unfortunately for Graham he is being primaried by the Tea Party as apparently he is "too moderate".

South Dakota - Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Johnson has decided to retire, which creates a real pick-up opportunity in the red state. Currently the Democrats have been unable to recruit a strong candidate, making the state more likely to flip to the Republicans. Currently four Republicans are in the primary, if Democrats can identify the weakest candidate and help him win the primary (such as what they did with Todd Akin in Missouri), then it might give them a fighting chance.

This is the map going into the 2014 Senate elections.

This would be the best *possible* scenario for the Democrats, here they retain all the seats they are defending
and also manage to pick up Georgia, Kentucky and Maine.
This would make the Senate 58 Democrats - 42 Republicans.

This would be the best *possible* scenario for the Republicans. Here they would retain al the seats they are defending as well as picking up Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia!
This would mean the Senate would be 55 Republicans - 45 Democrats