Vote NO on Scottish Independence

This Thursday millions of Scots will go to the polls to vote on whether or not Scotland should be an independent country. Until a couple of weeks ago it looked like the no campaign was cruising to an easy victory, as polls consistently showed it holding double digit leads over the yes camp. Then came the news that really electrified the race, a YouGov poll showed that when you excluded ‘don’t knows’, yes had 51% of the vote! Although the lead was within the margin of error, the fact that the yes campaign was even close shocked everyone.

What has been stunning to watch over the course of the campaign is how the economic establishment on both the left and the right have rallied to behind the no campaign. Big businesses have revealed contingency plans to move their headquarters from Scotland to England if independence is achieved, including RBS. At the same time prominent left-wing economist Paul Krugman wrote an op-ed titled “Scots, what the heck?” over the ludicrous economics of an independent Scotland. After all, Scottish stocks lost over £2 billion in value and the pound plummeted 1% against the dollar after the news of the poll broke. All that damage was done in less than a day and by one poll; imagine how damaging actual independence would do! One of the key problems for an independent Scotland is what currency it should use. The fact that the economy of Scotland is so well integrated with the rest of the UK means that introducing a new currency would be difficult. Yet sharing sterling comes with obvious problems, as the Eurozone has shown. A monetary union without a political union has negative implications for both the rich and the poor parts. The best option for Scotland is to remain within the union.

One of the great successes of the yes campaign has been to take on an anti-establishment image that appeals to many Scots, particularly the working class. This image is helped by the fact that the establishment has overwhelmingly backed the no campaign. Yet if people really think that an independent Scotland, led by Alex Salmond, will be any less cowed by the establishment, then I think they are foolish.

The key issue of this campaign is about the North Sea oil and gas reserves. Nationalists love point out that since the majority of the reserves are Scottish (96% of current oil production and 47% of current gasproduction), then an independent Scotland would easily be able to finance a new country of 5 million people. This point sounds reasonable, but it is more problematic when you scrutinise it, even for a bit. Production has fallen 40% in the past decade, if it keeps falling at the current rate then Scotland will run out of oil before 2030! Improved technology means that some reserves that were previously not economically viable, may become viable, basing a major irreversible decision on what might happen is far too much of a gamble. Basing your yes vote on the revenue from North Sea oil is not a good idea considering the permanence of the vote and the temporary nature of North Sea oil.

There are some valid points in favour of independence; since Scotland is more left-wing than Britain as a whole, an independent Scotland would elect more left-wing governments. Yet there are other claims which I feel are a bit ridiculous, one of which is the claim that you should vote for independence to save the NHS, or to give Scotland its own voice on the international stage. The first preys on the coalition’s much hated Health and Social Care law that reforms the NHS in England and Wales. When the nationalists make that point, they seem to conveniently forget that Scotland already has control over the NHS. So Scotland’s NHS is safe, it’s the NHS in England and Wales that is at risk. By leaving the union, you make the Scottish NHS no safer, but jeopardise the NHS for the 55 million people who live in England and Wales. The problem I have with the second point is less with validity and more with what people may think that the point implies. Although Scotland would have its own voice, it would be a very quiet one in comparison to Britain’s. In terms of influence, Scotland would be a lot better off as part of the UK. The UK is a member of the G20, G8, and a permanent member of the UNSC. It is inarguably one of the most influential countries on the planet. If the Scottish want to have influence on the world stage, they are far better off within the union.

When Scotland decides this Thursday, the vote will be close and will have ramifications around the world. If Scotland achieves independence, it will embolden separatists around the world. Perhaps this is the beginning of the “Great Splintering”, when wealthy western nations break up. So who will be next? Will it be Quebec breaking up with Canada, Catalonia with Spain, Flanders with Belgium, or perhaps the Po River Valley will say ciao to Italy!

Scots, when you go to the polls on Thursday, please give an emphatic NO THANKS to independence.