The Gay Marriage Avalanche

Gay marriage legalisation is rapidly becoming an avalanche as country after country passes same-sex marriage. It's hard to believe that it was only 12 years ago that the Netherlands became the first country to legalise same-sex marriage. Up until this year 11 countries had passed same-sex marriage as well as sub-national jurisdictions of Mexico and Brazil as well as nine US states plus DC. Since then the pace appears to be quickening, already this year same-sex marriage has made great progress. In the United States it has already passed the Illinois state senate and is now pending in the house. Delaware and Rhode Island have both legalised same-sex marriage and Minnesota seems likely to be the next. In the UK it passed a vote in the House of Commons by a massive majority of 400 - 175! In France it has passed both houses and faces a few procedural hurdles. In New Zealand and Uruguay it has been signed into law and Colombia may join soon. Six Brazilian states have also passed it in 2013.  At the beginning of this year I made a prediction, that the total population of the countries and jurisdictions that had legalised same-sex marriage before 2013 would be less than the total of those who passed it in 2013/2014. Prior to this year the combined population of everywhere that has passed same-sex marriage was roughly 363,310,000. It's difficult to gauge exactly where will pass same-sex marriage within the next two years, although we can already be certain of a few. Already in 2013, 42,930,000 extra people live in areas with it legalised.

Here are a list of jurisdictions I believe are highly likely to pass same-sex marriage in 2013/2014

France, England & Wales, Scotland, Luxembourg, Andorra, Colombia, California, Illinois, Minnesota and Rio de Janeiro. Total population: 241,250,000

Here are jurisdictions I believe have a chance of passing same-sex marriage in 2013/2014:

Finland, Germany, Ireland, Nepal, Taiwan, Vietnam, Oregon, Ohio and Michigan. Total population: 257,280,000

I am finding it difficult to find reporting on Brazil (other than Rio) but I would be surprised if no more states were to pass it in 2013/2014 as, of the 13 states that have passed it, six have done so this year alone. For my prediction to come true, countries with 363,310,000 people would have to pass same-sex marriage. Of the jurisdictions I think have at least a chance of passing same sex marriage (541,460,000), only those worth 2/3 of the total would have to pass same-sex marriage! The above countries all currently have supportive governments, but there will be elections in the mean time; some supportive governments will be voted out in favour of opposing ones. Fortunately the opposite can work too and we could see other countries added to the list of same-sex marriage supporters. I am confident that my prediction will be proven with time.