Chaos in Crimea

So the results of the referendum in Crimea are in and with a turnout of 83%, 96.6% of people voted to join Russia.

If you believe that, then you’ll believe anything. From the minute I heard about this I was convinced that it would be rigged. There’s certainly no way that the election could be considered fair, after all it’s very hard to have a fair election when there are men with guns that demand that you vote in a particular way.

Elections/referendums in which over 90% of the votes of one way are not necessarily rigged, last year the Falklands voted 99% to remain British, and not even the Argentinian government disputes the results. In the case of Crimea it does seem far-fetched that 96.6% of the voters would want to join Russia considering what we know about Crimea. Crimean Tartars are terrified of joining with Russia after how badly they were treated under the USSR. The Ukrainian population is more split, some supporting Kiev and others supporting Moscow.

I fundamentally believe in the right to national self-determination, within certain limits. I believe that if the Crimeans want to join Russia, then they should be allowed to, but it has to be done in the right way. You cannot hold the referendum whilst Russia is occupying the region and you must wait until the political climate cools, so that people can make rational choices.

Crimea becomes the third territory that Russia has taken off a sovereign nation. In 2008 Russia invaded the Caucasian nation of Georgia and took Abkhazia and South Ossetia from it. They have since become pseudo-independent nations that are in reality satellite Russian territories. Now people are wondering if Crimea will be the last territory that Russia steals, what about southern and eastern Ukraine? What about Transnistria, the pseudo-independent state formally part of Moldova?

It is important to note the special case of Crimea, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Crimea I majority Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia declared their independence in the early 1990s. This is important to note as no other Ukrainian Oblast has more than 40% ethnic Russians and Transnistria has no border with Russia. Is it possible that Russia will take more of Ukraine? Yes. Is it likely? No.

Source: wikipedia

Offshore Wind Energy - Britain's Future

North Sea Oil has helped to boost the British economy over the past 30 or so years. But as time passes the oil and gas resources will shrink and eventually they will run out. It would therefore seem sensible to assume that as time passes, Britain will become more and more dependent on foreign countries for its energy resources. Yet that is not necessarily true, because Britain has great access to one resource that will never be depleted: Wind

If you live in Britain you know that it can get fairly windy, and hence wind farms seem like a good idea to help Britain achieve energy independence. Unfortunately a lot of people who live near wind farms complain that they are both ugly and noisy. There are also concerns over how it might negatively affect birds. So how can we make use of Britain’s wind energy potential whilst taking into account reasonable objections to wind farms? The solution is simple, build most wind farms offshore. Although offshore wind farms are more expensive to build and maintain, advances in technology are helping to mitigate this. The good news is that Britain has a lot of potential in this area, current estimates suggest that one third of Europe’s offshore wind potential is in British waters!

Already Britain has put this potential to good use as it produces more energy from offshore wind than any other country. Of the top 20 offshore wind farms, half are in British waters, the largest is the London Array off the coast of Kent and has a capacity of 630 Megawatts (MW). In December 2013 10% of Britain’s energy consumption came from offshore wind farms! The good news is that this will rise even further as Britain’s total offshore wind capacity is hoped to rise to a total of 28 Gigawatts (GW) by 2020, a rise of 15GW. There are several wind farms currently planned that would have a capacity of over 1200MW.

According to a report commissioned by the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult (OREC), if Britain meets its goals and adds 15GW of capacity by 2020, there will be a massive benefit to the British economy. They estimate that £6.7 billion will be added to the British economy which result in 34,000 new jobs directly related to offshore wind and 150,000 new jobs in the wider British economy.

Of course there are major problems with replying on wind energy. Like most renewable energy resources, capacity and actual output are very different. This means that we cannot rely solely on wind energy, offshore or otherwise. We must also invest in other forms of renewable energy such as solar and tidal. Solar, much like wind, is unpredictable as its energy production is significantly reduced when there is significant cloud cover. Tidal energy is extremely regular, which makes it more reliable.

Some people may consider the idea of Britain producing all its energy from renewable sources nothing but a pipe dream, yet they are totally wrong. It is still several decades away but nonetheless is certainly achievable and most of it should come from offshore wind.

To see where the offshore wind farms are located, click here.

London Array, the world's largest offshore wind farm
by capacity (630 MW)
source: Telegraph

Crimean Annexation Imminent & Repeating History

The Crimean Parliament voted yesterday to become part of Russia, pending a referendum. This will further raise tensions between Russia and the West who have been exchanging verbal blows over the crisis. So what will the referendum actually say and when will it be held?

The Crimean Parliament is hoping that it can hold the referendum as the 16^th of March. It will contain the two following questions:

1.       Are you in favour of reuniting Crimea with Russia as a subject of the Russian Federation?

2.       Are you in favour of retaining the status of Crimea as part of Ukraine?

I have an issue with the wording in the first question, the use of the word ‘reuniting’ looks like an attempt to change the result. A better word to use would be joining.  Another problem with the referendum is over it constitutionality. Article 73 of the Ukrainian constitution states that only an all-Ukrainian referendum can change its territory. For a referendum to be called, the following conditions must be met.

1)      President of Ukraine calls for a referendum

2)      The Verkovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) calls for a referendum

3)      The people demand a referendum using the following conditions:

i)                    3 million people eligible to vote have signed a petition on the matter

ii)                   Two thirds of Ukraine’s 24 oblasts have at least 100,000 signatories

It is quite clear that these steps have not been followed, but nonetheless the Crimean Deputy Prime Minister, Rustam Temirgalier, denies that the move is unconstitutional. He claims that since the Crimean Parliament does not believe that the government in Kiev is legal, the move is perfectly constitutional. That makes no sense whatsoever.

There is no doubt in my mind that this referendum will be rigged. There is no way that the Crimean Parliament would pull something like this off without talking to Putin first. So think about this: Putin would be absolutely humiliated, both domestically and internationally, if the referendum were to turn out pro-Ukrainian. So he needs to make sure that there is no chance of losing the election, and so he will definitely make sure that it is rigged.

According to the latest Ukrainian census, Russians make up 58% of Crimea, which means that there is a good chance that they could lose this referendum if it was held fairly.

At this point I feel like Crimea may be a lost cause, but we cannot give in to the Russians.

Repeating history:

7^th of March 1936: Nazi Germany remilitarises the Rhineland, contrary to the Versailles Treaty that ended WWI. Other than some angry speeches, Britain and France do nothing.

12^th of March 1938: Nazi troops march into Austria

30^th of September 1938: Czechoslovakia agrees to hand the Sudetenland over to Nazi Germany

16^th of March 1939: Nazi troops take the rest of Czechoslovakia

1^st of September 1939: Nazi Germany invades Poland and WWII officially begins

August 2008: South Ossetia War results in Georgian loss of territory

16^th of March 2014: Crimea votes to join Russia.

??th of ????? 20??: Russia takes more of Ukraine

Fear of War Rises in Ukraine

The crisis in Ukraine is turning out to be the biggest geopolitical crisis in Europe this side of the millennium. The demands of the protesters, in the beginning, was simply a call for President Yanuchovych to turn towards the EU, rather than Russia.

Then everything changed last week.

The protests descended into chaos when the police attempted to take parts of Kiev that had been controlled by the protesters. As the situation got bloodier, a truce was hashed out between the government and the opposition, but it was not to last. The truce was declared on Thursday the 20^th of January, and dead by the 21^st! Friday turned out to be the bloodiest since protests began with an estimated 100 people killed, mostly on the opposition side.

As a result President Yanuchovych promised fresh elections, but it was too late, the Ukrainian Parliament voted unanimously to impeach him and replace him with the Chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament, Oleksandr Turchynov. Almost immediately Yanuchovych fled the country, fearful of his safety.

Unfortunately things have gotten even worse for Ukraine, the country may actually break apart! It has been evident throughout the portests that support for the EU is highest in the north and west of Ukraine, whilst support for Russia is highest in the south and east. This is because there are higher portions of ethnic Russians in the latter. This schism is being most acutely felt in Crimea, which is majority Russian.

Russia is trying desperately to make sure that Ukraine stays within its influence. Before the breakup of the USSR, Moscow held sway over all of Eastern Europe, today only Moldova, Belarus and Ukraine are under its wing. If Russia were to lose Ukraine, it would be a massive blow to its influence in the region. As a result Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is doing everything he can to make sure that he does not lose Ukraine. On 26^th of February, Putin put 150,000 troops along the Ukraine-Russia border ‘on alert’. Two days later armed men took control of several government buildings in Simferopol, Crimea’s capital, and raised the Russian flag. Some suspect that the level of organisations of the men indicates that they had likely been trained and that the Russians were behind them.

To make matters worse, the Upper House of the Russian Parliament voted today, unanimously, to allow troops to be used in Ukraine! This looks like the beginning of the first war in Europe since Kosovo in 1999!

So what should the West do? I say fight fire with fire. We must promise that if Russia invades Ukraine, that we will send in troops to oppose them. I know it sounds drastic, but the only language Putin understands is brute force. By showing him that the West remains strong, he will have no choice but to stand down.

Homophobia Takes Centre Stage in Uganda

With all the positive stories of gay rights, it can sometimes be easy to forget just how rampant homophobia is across the globe. We need to be reminded that homophobia is alive and well. In Russia you have the propaganda law, several US states are considering pro-discrimination laws and, of course, there is Uganda.

The African country became infamous in 2009 when a bill appeared before the Ugandan Parliament that would make homosexuality a capital offence! Thankfully, due to a massive international outcry, the bill never passed and so never became law. Unfortunately another anti-gay bill was introduced last year that would make homosexuality punishable by life in prison. Despite another international outcry, the Parliament passed it and on Monday President Museveni signed the bill into law.

The West needs to take a concerted effort against Uganda and its disgusting law. Already Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands have cut or frozen aid that they give to Uganda. Canada, the US and UK are also considering cutting their aid. So long as the aid is redirected to another poor country, I fully support the measure. It may be too late to influence Uganda, but a strong action taken by the West would deter other countries from considering similar legislation.

“We must take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented. Sometimes we must interfere. When human lives are endangered, when human dignity is in jeopardy, national borders and sensitivities become irrelevant. Wherever men and women are persecuted because of their race, religion, or political views, that place must - at that moment - become the centre of the universe.”

-          Elie Wiesel

The Polarisation of Gay Rights

Everything was going just great for the gay rights movement. In 2013 part of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) was struck down, as well as that eight additional states legalised same-sex marriage. The Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) passed the Senate for the first time with an incredible 64 votes in favour and 32 against. ENDA would ban discrimination against gay people in states where discrimination is not explicitly banned.

2014 looked to be another great year for gay rights. Courts in Utah, Oklahoma, Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia all made pro-gay rulings. Lawsuits to expand gay rights have been filed, or are pending, in a further 20 states. Gay marriage looks likely to be brought before the Supreme Court, perhaps 2014 could be the year every state has legal same-sex marriage.

Then several conservative states decided that the anti-gay rights side needed some good news. Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, South Dakota, Tennessee and Utah are considering passing laws that would make discrimination against gays protected by the law!

Kansas was the first to gain national notoriety for the homophobic legislation. The bill allowed for discrimination so long as the person had “deeply held religious beliefs”. The truly horrifying part was that it would allow for anyone to discriminate. Not just photographers who refused to take pictures of a gay wedding. If you were gay it would allow government employees to refuse you service, doctors could deny you treatment and policemen could refuse to investigate crimes committed against you. Disgusting. The bill passed the Kansas House 72-49 and was expected to pass the Republican controlled Senate. Then the bill suddenly died! So what caused the bill, so sure to pass, to lose support so quickly? It was the Kansas business community who we can thank for its death! Kansas businesses feared the negative effect on their livelihoods and so demanded that it never pass.

Unfortunately there is one state where a pro-discrimination bill actually managed to pass both chambers: Arizona. The bill is being sold as one that defends religious freedom, but the reality is that its sole intention is to encourage discrimination. Just like in Kansas, business leaders are opposed to it, which should influence Republican Governor Jan Brewer to veto it.

Early reports suggest that Arizona has already started to suffer from the bill (often referred to as SB 1062) passing the legislature. Businesses are reporting that companies are cancelling business trips and holidays in response to the law. George Takei, actor of Star Trek fame and now a formidable force for equality, has called for a boycott of Arizona. His husband, Brad Takei, is an Arizonan native and the couple visit Arizona annually. Not anymore. Read George’s opinion here. The Super Bowl is scheduled to be held in Arizona in 2015 and there have been calls that Arizona should lose it as a result of the law.

Bizarrely, three legislators who voted for the bill are now calling for Brewer to veto the legislation calling it "a mistake". Hopefully all these difference forces will persuade Brewer that discrimination has no place on the statute books of any state.

Even if the bills do manage to pass, it will not be long before the courts rule them as unconstitutional. After all, these courts are the same ones declaring same-sex marriage bans as unconstitutional.  

Horrific Violence in Ukraine

Violence has descended upon the streets of Ukraine once more, as clashes between police and protesters worsened. So far 26 people have been killed, 14 of them protesters and 12 police.

This is absolutely horrific, especially considering that just last week there were hopes of a deal. Protesters had agreed to leave some parliament buildings, in exchange the government would grant amnesty to the protesters. At the moment we don’t know whose fault it is for the violence, as both sides blame each other. Yet in the ensuing chaos it’s pretty clear that the government side has acted a lot worse. They have repeatedly broken promises they made and even set a building on fire, forcing people to jump out of buildings to escape the flames!

It was hoped that a truce agreed yesterday would give the politicians a chance to agree to something more long term. Unfortunately that truce has broken down thanks to the government. It didn't even last 24 hours! Today alone at least 17 protesters have been killed according to the BBC! This raises the total killed this week to 43, 31 of them protesters.

The only way out is for fresh elections, and if the government wins then I would be in favour of ending the Euromaidan protests. The current president, Viktor Yanukovych, won the highly dubious 2010 election with barely 3% more than his opponent. Some people would argue that as he won that election, that the protesters should simply wait until the next election in 2015, after all he was democratically elected! The problem with this argument is that Ukraine is not a stable democracy like Britain or America. This makes it more vulnerable to destruction. Four years may not appear like enough time to turn a democracy into a dictatorship, but remember: it only took Hitler two.

Thankfully the West has decided to act, America is preparing to impose sanctions and the EU is probably going to in the next few days. This has angered the Ukrainian and Russian governments who hope to crush the opposition. Russia’s foreign ministry blamed the West’s “conniving politics” for the protests. The great irony is: it was Russia’s ‘conniving politics’ that was the cause of the protests in the first place!

One of the many injured people
Source: BBC