Attention Returns to the Dismal Economy

The Olympics are barely over yet the talk in the media is already returning to Britain’s dismal economic news. The Bank of England has predicted that growth for this year will be non-existent; we also know that the UK is still in the recession it entered earlier this year. The bizarre thing is, the UK has somehow managed to add jobs. This is confusing economists and politicians alike, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, Charlie Bean, said that the bank was completely confused by the figures and further reviews would need to be conducted.

What we do know is that half of the jobs created were in London and a significant proportion of the jobs were self-employed. Temporary jobs created thanks to the Olympics are expected to take up a significant proportion of the London-based job growth. The description of “self-employed” disguises what most of those jobs really are, these aren’t entrepreneurs, many have been hired on zero hour contracts. Basically these contracts stipulate that you have a job, but it’s not regular; basically each day you will receive a message from your employer to tell you whether or not you will be needed for that day or not. (I don’t fully understand why their classed as self-employed either).

Yet if we leave aside the surprising, if bizarre, job figures, the picture of the economy is bleak. The recession will continue for the time being, but it will remain relatively mild.

There was a surprise outburst from London’s mayor, Boris Johnson; in an interview with the London Evening Standard he attacked David Cameron and the “institutional inertia of government.” In his interview he said “This is the time to be ambitious about London and what it can do for Britain. One of the ways of doing that would be to commit to further infrastructure – Crossrail 2, more river crossings, a massive house building programme for the city… The government needs to stop pussyfooting around.” I find myself in the unusual position of completely agreeing with Boris, I do believe that investment in infrastructure is exactly what this country needs, after all a poor construction sector is the primary cause of this current recession. Whatever they decide to do, I would encourage Cameron and Osborne to follow Boris’ advice on this issue.

More Bad News for Assad

This week has been a bad one for the Assad regime in Syria, footage released on Monday by rebel fighters shows them taking down a Syrian jet fighter. This is a very significant moment, being able to take out a jet means that the rebels have the gun power to do so; previously all they had were a few Kalashnikovs. Whether these weapons were stolen from the regime or supplied by Gulf nations, we do not know, but it still represents (another) significant turning point for the civil war in Syria. The symbolism of this jet’s destruction will hopefully encourage more Syrians to abandon the regime in favour of the revolution. But there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Assad still controls the sky, this is only one jet in the entire military and can easily be replaced.

The ex-PM, Riad Hijab, has spoken publically for the first time since his defection, in a speech he said that the Syrian regime was “near collapse” and encouraged other leaders to defect to the rebels and to tip the scales.

No doubt there will be more high profile defections to come; the ones in the regime with less personal loyalty to the regime will begin to recognise that Assad will soon be gone. If they wish to have power in a new Syria, and save their lives, they will have no choice but to defect. This is what happened in both Libya and Egypt, when the tyrants’ days were numbered people saved their own lives by joining the rebels. Likely I will be writing about Syria again before the week is out…

The End of a Fantastic Journey

The Olympic flame is extinguished, the Olympic flag has been handed to Rio de Janeiro and the athletes will soon leave London. Yet the games of the XXX Olympiad have exceeded all expectations, before the games there were worries over how London’s transport system would cope with the influx of tourists and athletes, there was also fear about whether or not Britain would get behind the games. With the games finally over, we all recognise the triumph they have been, everything went off seamlessly.

One thing that I’m really impressed with is the way in which the British public got behind the games, there was so much joy and passion in the media. Speaking with friends and family and from watching the television, most of us seemed glued to our TV screens for the sixteen days of competition. One of the reasons why the British public were so enthusiastic once the games began may partially be due to Team GB’s success. Great Britain has had the best Olympic Games since 1908; we are third in the medal table with an impressive 29 gold medals. 

Rank	Country	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
1	USA	46	29	29	104
2	China	38	27	22	87
3	Great Britain	29	17	19	65
4	Russia	24	25	23	82
5	South Korea	13	8	7	28
6	Germany	11	19	14	44
7	France	11	11	12	34
8	Italy	8	9	11	28
9	Hungary	8	4	5	17
10	Australia	7	16	12	35

There have been some really memorable moments at London 2012, for most Brits the best will probably be “Super Saturday” when Team GB clinched an impressive six gold medals. The rowers at Eton Dorney and the cyclists in the velodrome gave Britain three gold medals in the morning. Beneath the watchful eyes of 80,000 spectators in the Olympic Stadium; long jumper Greg Rutherford, heptathlete Jessica Ennis and 10,000m runner Mo Farah all won gold medals to cap Britain’s most successful day since 1908. Many commentators are already calling it the greatest day in the history of British sport.

The games have also helped further the idea that the United Kingdom really is multi-cultural, and that it’s a good thing to. Mo Farah moved to Britain when he was only eight from Somalia and Jessica Ennis is of mixed race decent. Numerous other black and Asian athletes competed for Great Britain; the feeling of patriotism instilled by non-white athletes will surely better us as a society.

These games also made history, the 2012 Olympic Games are the first ones in which women were able to participate in an equal number of sports and every National Olympic Committee sent female athletes. London has been dubbed the “women’s games”.

The Olympics have had many other memorable moments, Usain Bolt is undoubtedly the international star of the Olympics having achieved gold in the 100m, 200m and the 4x100m relay for the second Olympics running. Kirani James gave his country, Grenada, a reason to celebrate by winning the country’s first ever medal, and it was a gold! Michael Phelps also secured his place in history by becoming the most decorated Olympian of all time with an astonishing 22 medals, 18 of which are gold. David Rudisha’s record breaking performance in the 800m for Kenya wowed us all and Steven Kiprotich won Uganda’s first gold medal since 1972 in the men’s marathon.

I believe a special mention should be given to the BBC, recently the corporation has been receiving a lot of criticism, especially surrounding coverage of the Diamond Jubilee. Yet the BBC has proved that it’s worth the license fee, the coverage of the Olympics has been fantastic. At one point Clare Balding was trending on Twitter, many of the messages were calling her a national treasure and claiming that she should get an award for her contribution to sport.  

It’s not just Brits who have enjoyed the games; a group of foreign journalists have voted London 2012, the best Olympic Games ever. Athletes have also praised the British people for the hospitality they received during the games. Speaking in interview the Bolt and Blake personally thanked the people of Birmingham for their kindness and helpfulness (the pre-games Jamaican training camp was in Birmingham)

Although I am naturally very biased, I do believe these games have been the best is ever seen. Rio will find it difficult to follow, but I’m sure 2016 will be another phenomenal Olympic instalment.

Mo Farah and Usain Bolt exchange dance moves

Massive Boost to Syrian Rebels

The Syrian opposition received a major boost yesterday with the announcement that the British government would provide £5 million in non-lethal equipment. This is great news for democracy in Syria and bad news for the Assad regime, it is also good news for us. By giving this aid to Syrian rebels we are establishing contacts in the new Syria. Everybody knows that Assad’s days are numbered and that his regime will not last, it’s just a matter of how long he will last. We know that by helping the rebels now, they will look more kindly to the Britain when democracy finally comes to Syria’s beleaguered citizens.

So what else could we do to help? Arming the rebels is out of the question because the weapons could fall into the hands of militant Islamists. Any other avenue requires UN support, the problem here of course is the opposition of China, but more important is Russia.  This rules out any sort of direct military action from outside forces, there will not be a no fly zone in Syria and there will certainly be no “boots on the ground”. The best thing that Britain and the rest of the West can do is to try and persuade Russia to change its position, if we can convince them that regime change is inevitable then it could be a game changer. When Assad is finally kicked from power the Syrian people will not be impressed that Russia was protecting their oppressor on the international stage. We must convince Russia that to have a voice in a new Syria, they will need to change support. This isn’t impossible.

Romney Chooses Ryan

Mitt Romney has finally picked his running mate in what was a surprise announcement. In the early hours of Saturday morning, not the usual time for political news to break, the news came that Romney had chosen Paul Ryan as his choice for vice-president. This is definitely the biggest campaign announcement since Romney locked up the Republican nomination in May following the Texan Primary.

Romney making the announcement in Virginia
Source: maddowblog.com

The choice of seven-term Congressman Paul Ryan is not a surprising one; he is a favourite amongst many of the Republican base due to his hyper-radical “Ryan Budget”. Yet when a presidential nominee chooses his running mate, the opposing party is supposed to recoil in fear, not jump for joy. Many on the Democratic side are delighted with Romney’s choice; Ryan is the poster boy for the current congress, which is the most unpopular since modern polling began. His role in the “Ryan budget” which proposed destroying medicare, giving tax breaks to the very wealthy and gutting social security, will make many independents feel uneasy.

At this stage in the race Romney should be pandering to moderates, not his base, if he wishes to win in November. Even though Romney locked up the nomination two months ago, he is still unpopular with people in his own party, particularly Christian Evangelicals and the Tea Party. Despite this fact, I don’t understand why he chose such a radical conservative. Romney is in a very lucky position, the base of the Republican Party absolutely detest Barack Obama, they believe he is Satan, Hitler and Stalin in the one body. He does not need to get the backing of his base, they will turn out to vote in November anyway, not out of love for Romney, but out of hatred for Obama. So choosing a radical conservative as his running mate is a foolish choice at best, it will alienate independents whilst not increasing the turnout of the Republican base.

Third British Bank Scandal

Britain’s thirteenth largest company, Standard Chartered, becomes the third British bank to be mired in controversy. This follows the LIBOR Scandal at Barclays and the HSBC Mexican gang controversy. Standard Chartered has been accused by American authorities of performing illegal transactions with Iranians. As you probably know, America has placed economic sanctions on Iran, so if an Iranian company wishes to perform a trade based in US dollars, it cannot do so. What Standard Chartered is accused of is hiding the fact that these transactions involved Iranian companies. Allegedly Standard Chartered has performed such actions up to 60,000 times. Standard Chartered completely refutes the accusations.

If it turns out that Standard Chartered has acted illegally then it would be devastating to the bank. It could lose its banking license in the US, considering that the dollar is the worldwide reserve currency, this would affect a significant proportion of transactions outside of the United States. It would also cause irreparable damage to the bank’s image; the bank prides itself in being ethical. Consistent reviews by organisations place the bank as one of the most ethical banks in the world, and Britain’s most ethical bank.

Another important point to note is that this is the third scandal involving a British bank that has been exposed by American, not British, authorities and regulators. There is a growing feeling in the City of London that the Americans are increasingly gunning for UK banks. This is somewhat unfair as the Barclays’ scandal is known to involve more banks, Barclays’ was simply the first to admit its guilt. Nonetheless London’s taking over as the worldwide financial centre from New York has left a lot of American banks less than happy.

Is the Coalition Collapsing?

The Liberal Democrat leader and deputy Prime Minster, Nick Clegg, has finally announced that House of Lords’ reform has been abandoned by the coalition. Reform of the Upper House has long been a dream of the Lib Dems, so losing it has caused a lot of anger in the Liberal Democrat party. Nick Clegg speaking yesterday said that the Conservatives have “broken the coalition contract”. As a result Lib Dems will not back the boundary changes that the Conservatives wanted. The new boundaries would cut the amount of MPs by 50, from 650 to 600 and favour the Conservative party. This news has delighted Labour, expected to lose out the most from the new boundaries.

But what does this mean for the coalition? Well we already know that it is one of the weakest British governments in years, Tony Blair was Prime Minister for eight years before he suffered his first bank-bench rebellion in 2005. On the other hand David Cameron has suffered two back-bench rebellions since 2010. A third rebellion could occur over the issue of gay marriage, although it is unlikely to be as big as the first two. This is the first time that one party has refused to abide by the terms of the coalition agreement and will likely cause a rift in the cabinet and between the back-benchers of the different parties. This is a major headache for the government as now both parties have broken a psychological barrier; neither will have stuck to the coalition agreement. Now that it has been broken on these two issues, what could be next? The NHS reform bill is not quite finished yet, could the Liberal Democrats block it? What about the issue of gay marriage, will this cause more Conservatives to rebel? We won’t fully know the fallout from yesterday’s news, but know this: it was a huge turning point in the coalition government.  

Nick Clegg leaving the press conference yesterday
Source: Telegraph