The Fate of Europe in the Hands of the Irish

Polls in Ireland have just closed, turnout looks like it is extremely low possibly below 50%. The no campaign is led mainly by Sinn Fèin, whereas most of the political establishment is rallying behind the yes campaign, including the government and most of the opposition.

The no camp argues that agreeing to this is basically handing over Ireland’s independence to bureaucrats in Brussels and Berlin. Many on that side also believe that the limits on a budget deficit would prevent Ireland from leaving austerity and recession; they believe that the Irish government should be spending to create jobs and eventually help Ireland recover.

The yes camp believes that by voting for the new treaty will allow Ireland to get a second bailout from Europe, should it ever need it. They mostly also believe that austerity is the way to get Ireland out of the crisis and a budget deficit will not help Ireland’s economy grow.

So the results tomorrow will be waited on patiently across Europe and indeed the world, if Ireland votes no it will be difficult to grasp the magnitude. As Ireland is in the Eurozone it will make things more difficult for Merkel and other austerity leaders. It will also be welcomed in Greece, as this may prompt a new and more lenient treaty that would be of great benefit to Greece.