The Rainbow Wave

It has been an extraordinary year for gay rights, particularly when it comes to gay marriage. Unfortunately there have been set backs, most notably in Russia, which I will come to later. Earlier last year I made a prediction that the total population of countries and jurisdictions that have passed same-sex marriage before 2013 would be less than the population of those who passed it in 2013 and 2014. My prediction was true, just a bit conservative. Before 2013 363,310 people lived in places that had legal same-sex marriage, whereas last year places with an additional 37,806,000 people being added in 2013 alone!

Marriage Rights

The first gay couple to get married in France (Montpellier)
source: standard.co.uk

The expanding of marriage rights took place across four continents and seven different countries. Brazil, France, New Zealand and Uruguay legalised it nationwide, taking the total to 15 countries. The UK government also legalised same-sex marriage but it only applies to England and Wales as both Scotland and Northern Ireland have the power to define marriage devolved to them. Scotland is making good progress when it comes to same-sex marriage, a bill that would legalise it has passed the first reading in the Scottish Parliament and awaits another vote. In Northern Ireland there are no plans to extend marriage rights at the moment.

Same-sex marriage seemed unable to stay out of American news this entire year, every few weeks there was something new to celebrate, or be sad about. In total nine states started to issue same-sex marriage licences. Five legalised it through their legislatures (Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Minnesota and Rhode Island) whilst the other four legalised it as a result of court rulings (California, New Jersey, New Mexico and Utah). There are many other court cases pending across the country. In addition, six tribal jurisdictions began allowing same-sex marriage. They were the Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians, Pokagon Band of Potawatomi Indians, Santa Ysabel Tribe, the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation, Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes, and the Leek Lake Band of Ojibwe. In 2013 Colorado started offering civil unions to same-sex couples and Oregon began recognising same-sex marriages performed out of state.  

USA Supreme Court Rulings on Same-Sex Marriage

The biggest boost for gay rights campaigners in the US came in June last year when the Supreme Court sided with them in two landmark cases. The court finally put to rest the fight over same-sex marriage in California that has been going on for a decade. Under Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger the Democratic controlled legislature passed same-sex marriage, which he vetoed. A challenge was brought to the constitutionality of California’s same-sex marriage ban which resulted in the Supreme Court of California ruling that the ban was unconstitutional. This was rapidly overturned by Proposition 8, which defined marriage as between one man and one woman and received the backing of 52% of the public vote in the 2008 referendum. A suit was then filed in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, challenging the constitutionality of Proposition 8. Judge Vaughn Walker ruled that Proposition 8 did run contrary to the US constitution and hence would have to go. As the state of California refused to defend the law, it was the original organisers of Proposition 8 which then appealed the ruling in court.  The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals agreed to take up an appeal, when the court ruled in February 2012, it ruled in favour of the gay rights side. So the Proposition 8 proponents had no choice but to go to the US Supreme Court or abandon altogether, naturally they appealed.

The ruling later came on the 26^th of June and the results were rather surprising. The court did not rule based on whether or not Proposition 8 was constitutional, but rather whether its opponents had a right to defend it in federal court. In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court decided that Proposition 8 opponents were not able to appeal and so the original district court ruling stayed. What is more surprising is how each justice ruled. It is widely recognised that the court is split along political lines. There are four liberal justices; Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. Opposing them are conservative justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, John Roberts and Samuel Alito. Finally there is the swing justice who is viewed as a moderate, Anthony Kennedy. You would be forgiven for thinking that it was the four liberal justices plus Kennedy that enabled same-sex marriage to return to California, but you would be wrong. Instead it was Roberts, Ginsburg, Kagan, Breyer and Scalia that ruled against the Proposition 8 proponents. Kennedy, Sotomayor, Alito and Thomas dissented. Scalia is the most shocking vote as not only is he one of the most conservative justices on the court, he is one of the most conservative men in the country.

The other major case heard by the Supreme Court on gay rights in 2013 concerned the federal Defense of Marriage Act (aka DOMA). The Act was passed in 1996 by a strong bipartisan majority and signed into law by President Bill Clinton. The law basically barred federal recognition for same-sex couples. Section 3 stated that the federal government could not provide benefits to same-sex couples, even in states that had legal same-sex marriage. In 1996 this was of little consequence as no state allowed same-sex marriage, and it wouldn’t matter for another eight years until Massachusetts became the first US state to legalise same-sex marriage in 2004. In 2010 several plaintiffs filed in New York calling Section 3 unconstitutional. The case was called United States v. Windsor and dealt primarily with the case of Edith Windsor who had been taxed on the inheritance she received from her spouse, Thea Spyer. If the federal government had recognised her marriage then she would have been exempt from the tax. By the time the Supreme Court agreed to take the case, eight other states and DC had already legalised same-sex marriage and several more were planning on legalising it in the coming months. The Supreme Court decided in a 5-4 decision that Section 3 was indeed unconstitutional as it violated states’ rights and individual rights. The way the justices ruled was entirely as expected; the four conservative justices opposed gay rights and the four liberal justices (joined by Kennedy) backed gay rights.

Other positive moves on gay rights

One fundamental part of the family life is children, so naturally being allowed to adopt is important to gay people who want a family. There are two types of adoption here; joint adoption and step-child adoption. Joint adoption is when both partners adopt a child that is not the biological child of either of them. Step-child adoption is when one partner is the biological parent of one and the other partner adopts the child as their own. In 2013 France and New Zealand both began allowing joint adoption as a result of legalising same-sex marriage. In Northern Ireland and Gibraltar courts ruled that their respective jurisdictions had to allow joint adoption. Tasmania also legalised joint adoption. In 2013 step-child adoption was legalised in Austria and Germany.

Despite plenty of good news for gay rights in the West, less good news came from other areas of the world. I will be addressing that in the next post. 

Gay Marriage Salvaged

Labour has rescued the government's proposal from the Doldrums. The bill has majority in the House of Commons but Tory MP Tim Loughton was determined to go against the will of the majority and added a wrecking amendment. Loughton added a clause which extended civil partnerships to opposite-sex couples. The amendment would cause the bill to be held up for several more years. The amendment was a problem as it had the support of the Labour Party as well as many back-bench Conservatives. Earlier last week the Coalition government issued a warning to Labour, claiming that their support for the amendment could result in the whole bill failing.

With the very real chance that they could cause the bill to fail, Labour has pulled support for the amendment and instead will create its own bill in its place. This has thankfully killed the amendment. This should mean that the UK will have passed same-sex marriage by the end of this parliament. It's about time the UK joined the march for LGBT rights. The mother of parliaments must move forward.

____________________________________

In global news, last week was excellent for gay rights as France and Brazil legalised same-sex marriage nationwide! They join New Zealand as well as Minnesota, Rhode Island and Delaware as jurisdictions that have legalised same-sex marriage just this year!

The Gay Marriage Avalanche

Gay marriage legalisation is rapidly becoming an avalanche as country after country passes same-sex marriage. It's hard to believe that it was only 12 years ago that the Netherlands became the first country to legalise same-sex marriage. Up until this year 11 countries had passed same-sex marriage as well as sub-national jurisdictions of Mexico and Brazil as well as nine US states plus DC. Since then the pace appears to be quickening, already this year same-sex marriage has made great progress. In the United States it has already passed the Illinois state senate and is now pending in the house. Delaware and Rhode Island have both legalised same-sex marriage and Minnesota seems likely to be the next. In the UK it passed a vote in the House of Commons by a massive majority of 400 - 175! In France it has passed both houses and faces a few procedural hurdles. In New Zealand and Uruguay it has been signed into law and Colombia may join soon. Six Brazilian states have also passed it in 2013.  At the beginning of this year I made a prediction, that the total population of the countries and jurisdictions that had legalised same-sex marriage before 2013 would be less than the total of those who passed it in 2013/2014. Prior to this year the combined population of everywhere that has passed same-sex marriage was roughly 363,310,000. It's difficult to gauge exactly where will pass same-sex marriage within the next two years, although we can already be certain of a few. Already in 2013, 42,930,000 extra people live in areas with it legalised.

Here are a list of jurisdictions I believe are highly likely to pass same-sex marriage in 2013/2014

France, England & Wales, Scotland, Luxembourg, Andorra, Colombia, California, Illinois, Minnesota and Rio de Janeiro. Total population: 241,250,000

Here are jurisdictions I believe have a chance of passing same-sex marriage in 2013/2014:

Finland, Germany, Ireland, Nepal, Taiwan, Vietnam, Oregon, Ohio and Michigan. Total population: 257,280,000

I am finding it difficult to find reporting on Brazil (other than Rio) but I would be surprised if no more states were to pass it in 2013/2014 as, of the 13 states that have passed it, six have done so this year alone. For my prediction to come true, countries with 363,310,000 people would have to pass same-sex marriage. Of the jurisdictions I think have at least a chance of passing same sex marriage (541,460,000), only those worth 2/3 of the total would have to pass same-sex marriage! The above countries all currently have supportive governments, but there will be elections in the mean time; some supportive governments will be voted out in favour of opposing ones. Fortunately the opposite can work too and we could see other countries added to the list of same-sex marriage supporters. I am confident that my prediction will be proven with time. 

Review 2012

Well what a year we’ve had! There has been the most expensive Presidential Election of any country ever, Greece has gone from bad to worse, the Arab Spring continues in Syria and here in Britain we entered into a double dip recession. Although I don’t feel that 2012 was the year of change that 2011 was, it will still go down as important in the history books. The shooting of a 15 year old girl by the Pakistani Taliban sparked outrage in the country. The attack could help to stop people joining the terrorist organisation! The Palestinian-Israeli conflict took a turn for the worse after Israel killed one of Hamas’ leaders and Israel was furious when Palestine had its status upgraded in the UN.

The year saw a change of leadership in China and France and Greece choose a new government for its sinking economy. It was confirmed that in 2013 the EU will get a new member, Croatia, whilst the Eurozone crisis continued to rattle on.  

The year ahead of us will be the sixth since the economic crisis began and still there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Predictions are that the Eurozone economy has shrunk by a small amount in the past year, the same is true for Britain. What stopped the crisis that began in 2007 being worse than the 1929 crash was the economies of the developing nations, particularly Brazil, China and India. Unfortunately their economies are beginning to slow down, China has stopped producing double digit growth for the first time in a decade and India and Brazil are below 5%. Although European countries would kill for growth figures like those, the world economy depends on them being very high. The US has just fallen off the fiscal cliff (although a deal should be one the way) and Europe’s economy is expected to shrink again this year, if the developing nations’ economies do start to slow this could have cataclysmic knock on effects.

We are living in a time of change, what happens over the next year could prove very important in the long run.  

New World Order - Brazil

Population: 190 million

Area:  8.5 million km²

GDP: $2.5 trillion

GDP (per capita): $13,000

Economic Growth: 2.7%

Democracy? Yes

Brazil is the largest country by both population and size in South America and already the 6^th largest economy in the world by GDP. Amongst the countries I am reviewing, Brazil has the highest GDP per capita and the economy is continuing to grow, although at only 2.7% per annum, is much slower than many Brazilians would have hoped.

Brazil is awash with resources, there are very large proven deposits of iron and manganese which are currently being exploited and very important in Brazils growing industry. Deposits of nickel, tin, chromite, uranium, bauxite, beryllium, copper, lead, tungsten, zinc, gold and numerous other minerals are also currently being exploited. These mineral deposits are very important for Brazilian exports.

One of Brazil’s major problems is its infrastructure; Brazil has around 1.7 million km of roads, but of this 94.5% are unpaved, leaving only 96,000 km of road paved. For comparison, the UK (which Brazil is 34 times the size of) has 398,000 km of paved roads, or four times the length of Brazil’s. This will constrain growth as large lorries and trucks, which are important for economic growth, need good (paved) roads to drive on. At certain times roads in Brazil can become jammed for days, this is a problem that needs tackling soon if Brazil is to move up in the world. The country also has a very low car ownership rate of only 140 per 1,000 people. The rail transport is significantly better, but far from perfect, Brazil has no high speed rail link currently, although there is one under construction between São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

Brazil is probably most famous for its forest, the Amazon rainforest. This poses a massive conflict of interest, as I mentioned earlier Brazil has a massive amount of resources. The issue is many of them are underneath the rainforest, cutting down the Amazon is massively unpopular in the West and Western leaders are pressurising Brazil into not destroying the Amazon. This does have benefits for Brazil anyway, not destroying the Amazon helps to prevent floods and soil erosion. It is also well known that rainforests contain a massive diversity, so far less than 1% of the Amazon has been analysed, yet it accounts for a majority of modern medicines. The Amazon has great potential in the area of medicine and the profits from a strong pharmaceutical industry will benefit the Brazilian economy.

Yet like India and China, Brazil has a large amount of poor people, there are huge slum areas, especially around the largest city. If Brazil needs to help these people if the country wishes to become more influential.

Octavio Frias Bridge, São Paulo, a stunning tribute to modern Brazil

The New World Order

Between the Age of Discovery in the 15^th century and World War Two, European nations ruled the world, both directly and indirectly. The colonial Empires of Spain and Portugal dominating in the early years of Empire, but they were eventually leapfrogged by the French and British Empires, and to a lesser extent the Dutch Empire. Russia, Germany, Austria and Italy also played an important role, especially in the later years. By the time the 20^th century dawned the world was changing, Japan and the US were emerging powers and Germany was threatening the balance of power within Europe itself. The two World Wars that followed devastated Europe, both economically and politically, immediately after WWII the empires of France and Britain fell apart and the UK handed superpower status to the USSR and USA. Yet Europe was far from unimportant, the USSR was a European country after all, and Germany, France and Britain still commanded significant influence. But with the fall of the USSR in the early 1990s, for the first time in modern history, the most powerful and important nation was not a European one, rather the USA.

So I think I’ve made my point, countries rise and fall and everyone has to adapt to the new world order brought about every century or so. Although Europe is still far from unimportant, of the top 20 economies, nine are European and of the five countries with a veto on the UN Security Council, three are European.

The Question is where is the world heading? Who will be the new countries on the scene, which nations will challenge western power?

The truth is nobody really knows, but there are certainly contenders. Over the next few days I will write about countries I believe could take the mantle of power from the West. The big debate surrounds whether China will eventually best the USA or will another country be the one to overtake America?

The following are the countries I believe have a chance of besting the west:

1.       China – the favourite to become the next superpower

2.       India – A rising nation with a population set to become bigger than China

3.       Brazil – the big boy of the South American economies

4.       Mexico – the rising star that may not be if drug lords have their way

5.       Indonesia – the island nation could be a surprise winner

6.       Africa – as a continent it will not take power any time soon – but its day will surely come 

New World Order Countries in red

Mother Nature

It was a rather devastating year thanks to mother nature. In Japan one of the largest recorded earthquakes ever occurred off its north eastern coast. Although the earthquake itself did little damage, it was the massive tsunami that followed that wreaked the devastation. Over 15,000 people were killed in a matter of minutes. The Fukushima Nuclear reactor nearly went into meltdown, which would have caused a Chernobyl-scale disaster according to experts. Thankfully, due to the bravery of a few men, the problem was solved. Yet this event raised the issue over the safety of nuclear power. As a reaction to the tsunami many nuclear reactors in Japan are being shut down and programs across the world have been suspended or cancelled. Unfortunately Japan was not the only country to experience earthquakes, New Zealand and Turkey both experienced two earthquakes in the same area of their countries.

Floods tore through many nations, Brazil had flooding in Rio de Janeiro and 500 lives were lost in the torrents. Floods also returned to Pakistan for the second year and although not as devastating as 2010, they still destroyed the livelihoods of millions of people. Australia and the Philippines also experienced devastating floods.

Statistics show that over the past few decades the cost of natural disasters has been, for the most part, rising. One of the problems is the world’s expanding population. Countries are becoming more overcrowded and people are being forced to live on flood plains and other places often subjected to natural disasters. This will inevitably cause a rise in the cost of natural disasters and will pose difficult tasks for the years ahead.

The Japanese tsunami as it came ashore.