Triumph for UKIP (and disaster for the Lib Dems)

Throughout 2014 one man and one party dominated political discussions in the UK; Nigel Farage and UKIP. At the beginning of 2014 UKIP and the Liberal Democrats were both scraping double digits, although it was clear that UKIP were pulling away. The average of polls on ukpollingreport show that by December the Lib Dems averaged 7.6%, compared to 15.4% for UKIP.

UKIP achieved great success in the European elections, placing first for the first time with 24 seats to Labour’s 20 and the Conservative’s 19. They managed to win a seat in all of Britain’s regions, except Northern Ireland. In the council elections held the same day UKIP gained 163 seats, finishing with 17% of the vote, 5% lower than the 2013 council elections which were held in more UKIP friendly, rural councils. The huge amount of media coverage over the year has helped to bolster its support, which could have a huge impact on May’s General Election. UKIP also succeeded in getting its first MP’s elected. After Conservative MPs Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless defected from the Conservative Party to UKIP, they resigned to trigger by-elections: they both won election easily as the UKIP candidate.

Whilst UKIP had a great year, the Liberal Democrats had a truly awful one. In the European elections they lost half their vote share and 10 of their 11 MEPs. They did so badly that they were in 5^th place, behind the Green Party. In the council elections they lost 310 councillors and got a lower percentage of the vote than UKIP. Things looks so bad for the Lib Dems that Nick Clegg, the party leader, many lose his seat in the Sheffield Hallam constituency. Considering he won 53% in 2010, with a majority of 30%, it would be a truly astounding coup.

2014 has undoubtedly been the best year for Farage and UKIP, the question is: will this continue into 2015? At the moment it certainly seems likely, UKIP and its members have been involved in numerous gaffes, yet its popularity has been unaffected by them. Despite UKIP’s popularity, there is one group that simply refuses to support it: young people. In a poll published late December of people aged 17-22 (people who will be eligible to vote in a General Election for the first time in May 2015) showed that UKIP had next to no support amongst the demographic. According to the poll Labour came top with 41%, the Tories second with 26%, followed by the Greens on 19%, the Lib Dems on 6% and UKIP on a measly 3%. Not only that, Farage is deeply unpopular with the age group, scoring a net approval rating (the percentage of people who approve minus the percentage of people who disapprove) of -51% which is by far the worst of all the party leaders. UKIP’s unpopularity is down to young people being socially liberal and very pro-EU: 67% said they would vote to stay in the EU, compared to 19% who would vote to leave.

Whilst UKIP may succeed in the short run, the future is not favourable to UKIP after all, young people are the future. 

Nigel Farage (centre) with UKIP's two MPs, Mark Reckless (left)
and Douglas Carswell (right)

The Establishment In Chaos

The Rochester and Strood by-election has thrown the British establishment into a state of panic. The by-election was triggered when Mark Reckless switched from the Tories to UKIP. In yesterday’s election UKIP won 42.1% of the vote whilst the three main parties all lost large percentages of their vote. The Tories lost 14%, Labour 12% and the Lib Dems 16%, for the Lib Dems it was their worst ever result as they lost their deposit, got less than 1% of the vote and finished in fifth, behind the Greens who got 4.2% of the vote.

Obviously this does not bode well for the main parties’ prospects in May. The next General Election could be the most important election in living memory as six parties vie for success. UKIP’s unique ability to attract voters from the three main parties really makes it difficult to understand what will happen at the next election. Although the result in Rochester certainly seems like an earthquake, it doesn't necessitate that similar events will happen in the General Election. Voters act differently in by-elections to Generals, Labour didn’t win any by-elections from the Conservatives from 1997 to 2012, but they still won Generals in 2001 and 2005. A combination of factors are the reason for by-elections looking different to General Elections. Firstly, opposition voters tend to be more motivated to go out and show support for their candidates. Since by-elections have no effect on who forms the government (apart from very rare circumstances), the incumbent party supporters simply are not motivated enough. Most importantly is that supporters of the incumbent party can use by-elections as a way to protest vote. This is certainly part of the reason for UKIP’s success in Rochester & Strood, many people are angry with the Tories and so voted for UKIP to scare them into taking tougher approaches to immigration and the European Union. However in the May election I believe that Rochester will switch back to the Tories.

As a political junkie I am excited by what the implications of May’s General Election will be for years to come. Take a look at the graph and table I created below. As you can see the combined vote of Labour and the Tories has declined over the past 70 years, albeit very slowly. If you include the various incarnations of the Lib Dems, most of the decline disappears. The combined vote of the three main parties has only dipped below 90% on two occasions (2005 and 2010). How this graph changes in 2015 will be fascinating as the Greens, UKIP and the SNP erode support from the main parties.

Now For the Great British Debate

As someone who was always a very staunch no, I am delighted that Scotland has voted to stay in the union. Yet do not believe for a second that this means that questions and issues raised during the campaign will be ignored until the next referendum. I say next referendum as if nothing changes then another referendum will be inevitable, as will a yes result. The referendum has invigorated people, and the demand for change is far too great for politicians across the United Kingdom to ignore. We need a “Great British Debate” on how to reform our country, a debate which involves every part of the country and every political party small or large, not just the big three and the SNP. We must find a way to make British democracy more representative by replacing First Past the Post. We need to federalise the United Kingdom with defined, and equal powers for the parliaments created, including regional parliaments for England. This is the greatest opportunity we have had since the end of WWII to radically reform Britain. Let’s do it.

A new method of voting for MPs

In the 2010 General Election, the Tories won 36.4% of the vote and 47.1% of the seats, labour won 29% of the vote and 39% of the seats, whilst the Liberal Democrats won 23% of the vote yet only 8% of the seats! This is clearly not particularly democratic, but the 2010 General Election was one of the most representative elections we have had! For example; in 2005 Labour won 35.2% of the vote and 55.2% of the seats!

I do not support full proportional representation for a couple of reasons; I believe that it is important to have local representatives that are elected locally, which cannot be done under proportional representation. I also believe that when selecting a government you need to have a balance between democracy and effective government. Having proportional representation frequently leads to reduced government efficiency due to more coalitions of many different parties forming. It also eradicates any chance that independents or regionalist parties will get elected. I believe the best way to balance the interests of democracy with effective government is the d’Hondt method. This is the way we send MEPs to the European Parliament.

I propose merging constituencies into ‘mega constituencies’, which would send around 4 MPs to parliament each. This would mean that you maintain a local representative, have a more democratic system without causing coalitions of half a dozen parties.

Giving votes to 16 and 17 year olds

Another important step forward in democracy would be to give 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote, as they received in the referendum. It is supported by the Liberal Democrats (who had it in their 2010 manifesto) and the Labour Party (Miliband announced the policy during last year’s Labour Party Conference) but opposed by the Conservatives. As a country we have decided that at 16 you are mature enough to leave school, raise a family and join the military. Surely that means we have decided already that they are mature enough to vote.

House of Lords Reform

It is time to get rid of the remaining hereditary peers in the House of Lords altogether, along with the Church of England Bishops. It is also time to make the chamber at least partially elected, to reflect the views of the people of the country. The reason why I do not want a wholly elected House of Lords is because I believe that it can be beneficial to the country to have people who are in Parliament because of their expertise, rather than their electability. Technocracy in moderation is a good thing. Quite what proportion of the House should be elected is up for debate, but I believe it should be no lower than 1/3. However, I do not want the House of Lords to have the power to veto laws, as at the end of the day it should be only the people’s representatives that decide whether or not a law should pass.

Federalising the United Kingdom

This will be the hardest part of the whole process and will require a lot of hard work from every part and party of the United Kingdom. I completely agree with Ed Miliband that we should have a constitutional convention within the United Kingdom some time after next year’s election. Each of the new parliaments should have the same defined powers along a similar line to the states that make up the USA. A great debate should occur over what powers these new parliaments should have. How can they raise taxes or spend money? Should they control their own education systems? What about the NHS and benefits? Since this debate is only just beginning, I do not know exactly where my opinions are just yet. Once I decide on a point of view, I will be sure to inform you!

So involve yourself in the Great British Debate, read up about the different possibilities, write to your local representatives at every level and make sure to change this country for the better!

UKIP in the Ascendancy?

Nigel Farage has called the result an “earthquake in British politics” as his party charges into first place with almost 30% of the vote and 24 seats. Yet is this result, in a European election with a 34% turnout, an indication of the 2015 General Election? The answer: Not if history is anything to go by. Nobody is claiming that UKIP will beat the Tories or Labour in next year’s election, not even the party itself, the question is will it gain any seats, and if so, how many?

Remember back to 2009 when UKIP placed second in the European elections with 16.5% of the vote? Everyone predicted that in the 2010 General Election that UKIP would gain some seats in the House of Commons, especially considering voter hostility to both Labour and the Tories. Well in 2010 UKIP didn’t gain any seats and only received a paltry 3.1% of the vote. Obviously a lot has changed in five years, but I doubt Farage will cause an earthquake when the results of the 2010 election are revealed.

There was some good news though, support for the BNP crumbled into nothing! In the 2009 European elections the BNP managed to gain two MEPs, Nick Griffin in the North West and Andrew Brons in Yorkshire and the Humber. This time around both MEPs were handily defeated.

The Greens had a reasonable night, although their share of the vote actually decreased slightly they managed to gain one seat. This is particularly th

anks to the implosion of the Lib Dems, who slipped into fifth place and lost 10 of their 11 seats. This result, along with their obliteration in the council elections has meant many in Nick Clegg’s own party calling for his head.

Party	Vote	Change	Seats	Change	Pro or anti EU
UKIP	27.49%	+10.99%	24	+11	Anti
Labour	25.40%	+9.67%	20	+7	Pro
Conservative	23.93%	-3.80%	19	-7	Mixed
Greens	7.87%	-0.75%	3	+1	Pro
Liberal Democrats	6.87%	-6.87%	1	-10	Pro
SNP*	2.46%	+0.34%	2	0	Pro
Plaid Cymru*	0.71%	-0.13%	1	0	Pro
BNP	1.14%	-5.10%	0	-2	Anti

*The percentage of the vote is when you take all of Great Britain (not Northern Ireland). In Scotland the SNP got 29% of the vote and in Wales Plaid Cymru got 15%. 

Undoubtedly Eurosceptics did quite well, but the result was not as Eurosceptic as you might have been lead to believe. 42% of people voted for pro-EU parties, 31% for anti-EU parties and 25% on parties that have mixed attitudes to the EU.

EU Membership at Stake

David Cameron has attempted to quell the rise of UKIP and appease Tory backbenchers by promising en EU referendum in 2017. So why so late? Why not next year? The problem at the moment is that the Conservative Party's coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats, are very pro-EU and will not allow a referendum earlier.

Cameron has proposed a bill that would mean that after the next election in 2015, a Tory government would try and re-negotiate Britain's relationship with Europe. If we don't get the concessions the Tories want an in-out referendum would be triggered in 2017. The major flaw with this is that there may not be a Tory government in 2015, Labour is ahead in the current polls. The Tory Party will not be able to make the law binding as governments aren't allowed to pass laws restricting future governments. The bill will have to be a private members bill as the Lib Dems won't allow it to be coalition policy.

So what has pushed Cameron to propose this bill? The recent success of UKIP will have struck fear into him and he needs the support of his Euro-sceptic back-benchers. It won't have helped that in the last several weeks old beasts of the party such as Nigel Lawson, Norman Lamont and Michael Portillo have called for a referendum as well as cabinet ministers Michael Gove and Philip Hammond.

With the UK's membership of the EU in peril I hope Miliband doesn't back this dangerous bill.

Local Elections

The political establishment in Westminster has been shaken to its core after UKIP's astonishing night. The results are shown below. (note only the Labour and Conservative Parties have control of councils)

Conservatives: 18 Councils (-10), 1116 councillors (-335)

Labour: 3 Councils (+2), 538 councillors (+291)

Liberal Democrats: 352 councillors (-124)

UKIP: 147 councillors (+139)

Green: 22 councillors (+5)

Other: 22 (no change)

Independents: 165 (+24)

13 councils had no overall control (+8)

The night was terrible for the Tories, losing control of 10 councils and 335 councillors. The Liberal Democrats also had a bad night, losing control of 124 council seats. Together the coalition lost 459 councillors. This is a clear sign from the country that the public does not like their approach to our problems. One of the surprises though was Labour, which expected to do better under the circumstances, perhaps gaining control over more councils. Unfortunately for Labour only a few more seats on councils such as Lancashire would have given them a majority. If you're looking at the results and wondering why Labour didn't beat the Tories overall, you should remember that these are English county councils, Conservative heartlands. Labour strongholds such as Scotland and cities were not voting.

Naturally the big story was UKIP's success in taking many seats, although no councils. The leader, Niger Farage, was delighted with the result but already people are questioning his ability to take seats in a general election. UKIP is still a party of protest and come the next general election you will see a decline in its vote share. The major problem UKIP has is breaking from the idea that they are a one issue party - saying no to Europe. The party will have to hash out policies or people won't take it seriously. The only problem is that once they spell out their policies they will lose all the left wingers who voted for them recently. You should remember that UKIP is more conservative than the Conservatives.

Snoopers Charter Vetoed

Civil liberties groups breathed a sigh of relief yesterday after news broke that Nick Clegg would be effectively vetoing the "snoopers charter". The bill proposed by Home Secretary Theresa May would have given sweeping new powers to the police and intelligence community. It would allow them to log the online data of everyone in the UK, recording what websites we visit, when we visited them, who we message etc.! Many people were horrified by the proposal calling it an affront to civil liberties, Conservative MP Dominic Raab called it "Orwellian".  The refusal of Labour, Lib Dems and many Conservative MPs meant the proposal was dead in the water.

Nick Clegg has rejected the allegation that this was another example of the rift between the two governing parties, pointing out that the proposal had never been in the Coalition Agreement. Yet with the three year anniversary just around the corner, we already can see massive fault-lines between the two parties. Some have actually predicted that the coalition will not last until the next election in 2015! We'll have to wait and see.

Theresa May's bill has been shot down
source: www.guardian.co.uk

Victory for Equality!

History was made yesterday when the House of Commons voted 400 – 175 in favour of gay marriage, an overwhelming majority. Despite this, it did not go as well as planned for David Cameron as more Conservative MPs voted against it rather than for it. Here is the breakdown of how the parties voted (note the SNP did not vote as it is a devolved issue and Sinn Fein doesn’t sit in the House of Comons).

Party	Yes	No	Abstained
Conservative	127	136	40
Labour	220	22	16
Liberal Democrat	45	4	7
DUP	0	8	0
Plaid Cymru	3	0	0
SDLP	1	0	2
Alliance	1	0	0
Respect	1	0	0
Green	1	0	0
Independents	1	2	0

The Tory rebels included two cabinet ministers, Owen Patterson the Environment Secretary and David Jones, the Welsh secretary. This is a massive blow to David Cameron’s authority within the Conservative Party, a lot of party members are unhappy about this self-inflicted wound.

Although the bill has not become law yet, when it passes through committee and the House of Lords it will mean that same-sex couples in England and Wales will be allowed to get married. The law will not apply to Scotland or Northern Ireland, although in Scotland there are plans to pass it soon. The combined population of England and Wales means that it will become the largest jurisdiction to have passed gay marriage. This means the UK will join 11 other countries (Argentina, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, South Africa and Sweden) as well as subdivisions of Brazil, Mexico and the US. There is still a lot to do for gay rights, although progress is moving quickly in several places. There is discussion about passing gay marriage in several states of Mexico and the US. Gay marriage is likely to be legalised in Andorra, Colombia, Finland, France, Luxembourg, Nepal, New Zealand, Taiwan and Uruguay within the next couple of years.

Unfortunately for gay people, there are worse issues. In most African and Middle Eastern states homosexuality is a punishable offense, sometimes even by death. Gay rights groups need to do more work trying to convince more people in these countries that gay sex is not a sin.

2013 is looking like it could be the best year gay marriage rights have ever had, here’s just a few key dates to watch out for:

12^th of February: France’s National Assembly votes on a same-sex marriage bill (likely to pass)

28^th of February: A Select Committee in New Zealand’s parliament will report on whether a same-sex marriage bill should continue.

April: Uruguay’s Senate will vote on a same-sex marriage bill that has already passed the Chamber of Deputies

Spring: Same-sex marriage will be discussed at Vietnam’s National Assembly

20^th of June: If Colombia’s Congress does not legislate then same-sex marriage will automatically be legalised.  

Leveson and the Press

After it was revealed in 2011 just how badly the British press behaves, the government called an inquiry into what had happened and what to do to prevent future bad behaviour. Lord Justice Leveson chaired the inquiry in which he listened to hundreds of witnesses, which included politicians, TV presenters, journalists, celebrities and ordinary civilians affected by the extreme behaviour of the press.

The report which was published at the end of November called for a new body to replace the Press Complaints Commission. The new body would be independent of both government and the press and would have the ability to fine companies that break the law up to £1 million. It should be noted that this would only apply to large organisations, not Twitter users or bloggers like myself.

The reaction to the report was not that surprising, nearly the entire press agreed with the Prime Minister, David Cameron’s, position that legislation should not follow as Leveson advised. The only exception was the Guardian which backed Ed Miliband’s approach of calling for full implementation of the Leveson Inquiry’s recommendations. J.K. Rowling and Gerry McCann both made statements expressing thing frustration at the PM, they felt as though they had been miss-led. Private Eye, which was actually praised in the report, complained that they proposed system would force them into joining the regulator despite good behaviour previously.

 This is a once in a generation chance to reign in the extremities of the press without damaging the all important freedom of the press. We must realise that too many people have had their lives torn apart by the excesses of the press and that this must stop. Labour is going to bring a vote in the House of Commons, which they will likely win thanks to rebelling Tories and Liberal Democrats, but unfortunately Labour does not have the ability to create laws and as such it will not actually go into law. This is quite disappointing, as the majority of the country backs the Leveson report.

UK Elections

The 2012 UK elections were nothing out of the ordinary, there was no general election so no change of government. Yet there were still important elections, in May council elections were held across England, Scotland and Wales as well as several mayoral elections and the London Assembly. The election went fantastically for Labour, which was somewhat expected as opposition parties tend to do well in mid-term elections.

Labour received 38% of the vote to the Conservative’s 31% and the Liberal Democrat’s 16%. This meant that Labour gained 823 councillors and 32 councils whilst the Conservatives lost 405 councillors and 12 councils and the Lib Dems lost 336 councillors and one council. It is important to note that Labour gained quite a few councils that previously had no overall control. In London things were different, Boris Johnson won re-election, making him the only Conservative success of the election. Johnson won about 50,000 more votes than Labour’s Ken Livingstone in the final count. The London Assembly was more in line with the rest of the country as Labour gained at the expense of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. In the Assembly Elections the Green Party did well, replacing the Lib Dems in third place after receiving around 40,000 more votes than them.

In November elections were held for Police and Crime Commissioners across England and Wales, as in these elections people did not vote on party lines, independents did extremely well. Off the 41 PCC positions available, independents won 12, Labour 13 and the Conservatives 16 (despite receiving 250,000 fewer votes). The Liberal Democrats got nothing.

Overall the 2012 elections were very good for Labour, polls show that as the year closes Labour has a 10-15 point lead over the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are losing third place to UKIP. The next general election will not occur until 2015 so there is plenty of time for things to change. If we keep on track we could have a Prime Minister Ed Miliband. 

Massive Rifts Opening Up in Tory Ranks

The current coalition government of the United Kingdom is known to be divided, which is to be expected as there are two different parties in power. We know there are rifts between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives over social and economic policies, but what is usually less visible is the rift within the Conservative Party.

The rift in the Conservative Party is quite surprising considering that it was only two years ago in which they placed first in a general election. Most people would expect, at this stage, for the Labour Party to be rife with divisions and the Conservatives to be putting on a united front. Yet the Tory Party has shown time and time again that there are massive divisions in the party that are threatening to tear the party apart. HS2, the high speed rail link between London and cities in the north of England has angered a lot of the Tory MPs from the rural regions through which the new route will pass. There are also large divisions over the possibility of building a third runway at Heathrow Airport. Europe has always been a headache for Tory Party leaders, David Cameron is no exception. Many within the party demand a referendum on whether or not to stay in the European Union, much of the party is euro-sceptic and would rather we leave the EU altogether.

The most recent issue to create a colossal divide within the Conservative Party is that over gay marriage, the proposals have been supported by Cameron and much of his cabinet ministers for many years. The proposals also have support of the ascendant Boris Johnson and both the opposing parties. Yet there is increasing anger amongst many Tory backbenchers who are opposed to gay marriage and believe that the government has no mandate to pass it since it was not in the Tory Party manifesto or the coalition agreement. (I don’t see how 70%-80% public support for a policy isn’t a mandate)

All this makes things very difficult for the government, there are rifts opening up everywhere and over every issue. If the coalition survives until the 2015 general election I will be very impressed and very surprised. 

UK Election Results

It won’t come as a surprise that the elections for Police and Crime Commissioners had the lowest turnout of eligible voters in UK history! The lowest turnout was in Staffordshire where only 11.6% of the voting population turned out to vote, the highest turnout was still extremely low, 20% in Northamptonshire.

The election turned out surprisingly well for the Conservatives, despite trailing the Labour Party in all polls of a national general election, they managed to win 16 of the PCC posts to Labour’s 13. Unfortunately for the Liberal Democrats the result was even worse as none of their candidates were elected, yet the surprise winner of the election were independents who won in 12 of the races!

Although Labour will be disappointed with the PCC election results, they should not read too much into them. Firstly turnout was historically low, and there was apathy even amongst those who did vote. More importantly is that many people did not vote on party lines (this is likely the reason for independents doing so well), people felt that it mattered less what party they were from and more about what history they had with the police and crime. Despite this disappointment there were more important posts available, three by elections took place on the same day and Labour managed to win in all three. The most prominent was the Corby by-election; the seat had been left open by Louise Mensch when she resigned earlier this year, Labour took back the seat with a massive 21.8% margin! This election bodes well for the next general election, but a lot can change in three years!

Scotland Takes Step Towards a Referendum

Scotland has taken a step forward to a referendum on independence that could break the United Kingdom into fragments.

The governments in Westminster and Edinburgh have come to an agreement on what will happen. It has been agreed that the timing, the wording of the question and the franchise will all be decided in the Scottish parliament. David Cameron will meet with Alex Salmond tomorrow to sign the deal that could end this country.

Although polling still shows Scots rejecting independence by around 2:1, a lot can happen in two years. With the UK economy still in recession, Salmond offers Scotland some hope. If the UK economy continues to drag on as it is, then many people may flock to the pro-independence side. If Scotland does reject independence it will cause problems for the SNP and could do irreparable damage. The base would be demotivated and in reality, it would become just another left wing party. Yet the margin of defeat is important, if it is defeated by a large margin then Scotland will remain safely in the UK for a long time. If it is only defeated by a small margin then there would be a legitimate argument for calling another referendum five years later!

The debate over the coming months in the Scottish parliament will be an intense one as the opposing sides clash; for once the Lib Dems, Conservatives and Labour will be arguing for the same thing. The SNP was already dealt a blow earlier this year when the Green Party withdrew from the Yes campaign, saying the SNP was excluding other parties from participation in the movement. What happens next is key to the survival of what was once, the world’s most powerful nation. 

David Cameron's Reshuffle

David Cameron’s reshuffle has already caused tensions to rise in the political world, mainly over the way he has dealt with the transport secretary. Justine Greening, the transport secretary until yesterday, was very vocal about her opposition to the idea of a third runway at Heathrow. In recent weeks there has been rumours circulating that the government may be preparing to U-turn on this policy, previously the coalition agreement had ruled out any third runway at Heathrow. Greening’s constituency of Putney is under the flight path of Heathrow, there is stern opposition to a third runway. Although Greening received a large majority in 2010, she would be threatened by Labour if she was the transport secretary to push through a third runway proposal. She was replaced as by Patrick McLoughlin, MP for Derbyshire Dales in the Midlands. He would not lose any votes over a third runway. Boris Johnson reacted immediately to the change saying “There can only be one reason to move her – and that is to expand Heathrow Airport.” Boris is vehemently opposed to any expansion of Heathrow Airport, he favours a totally new, four runway, airport that would be built to the east of London. Although the government is totally denying any change of policy, most people are expecting a U-turn within the coming months.

Probably the second most controversial move is that of Jeremy Hunt, before yesterday Hunt was the – highly unpopular – secretary for Culture, Media and Sport. Despite his complete and total mishandling of the BSkyB bid and the view in the public that he is corrupt, he managed to receive a promotion – most people thought he was going to be fired altogether! Or at least demoted! Instead he has managed to be promoted to Secretary for Health, now his job is selling the extremely unpopular Health and Social Care Bill to the public. Remember this bill has around a 10% approval rating. Considering that Hunt is probably the second least popular minister in the government (the least popular is probably the former health secretary Andrew lansley) it would seem a terrible idea to ask him to sell the least popular bill in the history of the country (most bills only really become unpopular when they’re enacted).

Most of the rest of the changes are not controversial, the reshuffle sees the return of David Laws, a centre-right Liberal Democrat. It also sees the demotion of Ken Clarke from Justice Secretary to Minister without portfolio; he is replaced by Chris Grayling who is seen as hard-line Conservative on the issues over imprisonment and justice. Originally Iain Duncan Smith was offered the job of Justice Secretary but refused, choosing to stay as Work and Pensions secretary. Baroness Warsi was replaced by Grant Shapps as chairperson of the Conservative Party.

As was expected, there was no change in the top positions with the home, foreign and defence secretaries all keeping their jobs as well as all liberal democrats and the chancellor George Osborne.

Will this new team turn the country around? We’ll have to wait and see, unlikely as the government has promised no policy change.

Cameron Prepares to Reshuffle

David Cameron has embarked on his first reshuffle of the cabinet since the coalition took office in 2010. Currently nobody knows exactly who has been fired, hired or moved, all we know is that it is a very extensive reshuffle that only excludes those in the highest office. The Home Secretary, Teresa May, Foreign Secretary William Hague, the chancellor George Osborne, the deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and the business secretary Vince Cable are all supposed to be safe. David Cameron has seriously reduced flexibility compared with previous Prime Ministers as he is part of a coalition. For all his ideas he will have to consult the leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg and that makes everything more difficult.

There are certain people that the press think are people to watch. David Laws, the Liberal Democrat MP who resigned two years ago will likely return to the cabinet. Other people currently in the cabinet, health secretary Andrew Lansley and Culture, Media and Sports secretary Jeremy Hunt, are ones that many believe will be given less senior positions or fired from the cabinet altogether. Both have received much negative attention in the press. Lansley presided over the NHS reforms which have an approval rating of less than 10% and have seriously damaged the government. Hunt is thought to be far too close to the Murdochs, and the fact that he was handed the BSkyB decision angered a lot of people who felt he was far too biased to make a good decision.

I’ll be better able to report on what Cameron has done later tomorrow as news come on. The government drastically needs a revitalisation if they are to win the next election; the current polls suggest that it will take a lot more than a reshuffle to do that, but a comeback must start somewhere.

David Laws would be a good choice for government unity
as he is viewed as a centre-right Liberal Democrat

Is the Coalition Collapsing?

The Liberal Democrat leader and deputy Prime Minster, Nick Clegg, has finally announced that House of Lords’ reform has been abandoned by the coalition. Reform of the Upper House has long been a dream of the Lib Dems, so losing it has caused a lot of anger in the Liberal Democrat party. Nick Clegg speaking yesterday said that the Conservatives have “broken the coalition contract”. As a result Lib Dems will not back the boundary changes that the Conservatives wanted. The new boundaries would cut the amount of MPs by 50, from 650 to 600 and favour the Conservative party. This news has delighted Labour, expected to lose out the most from the new boundaries.

But what does this mean for the coalition? Well we already know that it is one of the weakest British governments in years, Tony Blair was Prime Minister for eight years before he suffered his first bank-bench rebellion in 2005. On the other hand David Cameron has suffered two back-bench rebellions since 2010. A third rebellion could occur over the issue of gay marriage, although it is unlikely to be as big as the first two. This is the first time that one party has refused to abide by the terms of the coalition agreement and will likely cause a rift in the cabinet and between the back-benchers of the different parties. This is a major headache for the government as now both parties have broken a psychological barrier; neither will have stuck to the coalition agreement. Now that it has been broken on these two issues, what could be next? The NHS reform bill is not quite finished yet, could the Liberal Democrats block it? What about the issue of gay marriage, will this cause more Conservatives to rebel? We won’t fully know the fallout from yesterday’s news, but know this: it was a huge turning point in the coalition government.  

Nick Clegg leaving the press conference yesterday
Source: Telegraph

The Government of U-Turns

The government has performed a U-turn once again on the budget, this time it is on the “pasty tax” and the caravan tax. Originally the government intended to extend VAT to pasties, sausage rolls and other cold food sold in bakeries. This type of food is eaten by many working class people at lunch and helped to re-enforce the image that the government, particularly George Osborne and David Cameron, are out of touch with the public. The proposed caravan tax didn’t help either, originally the government had intended to introduce VAT at 20% on static caravans (ones that do not move), this got strong opposition from Tory backbenchers, the caravan building industry and holiday makers. They claimed that introducing the tax could have cost up to 7000 jobs whilst again re-enforcing the image that the government was out of touch as people who could afford to buy a holiday home wouldn’t have to pay tax, whereas those who could only afford a caravan would have to pay tax. Now the government has decided to introduce VAT at only 5%.

The U-turns have been praised by the Tory backbenchers, but the issue has still damaged the government. The image after the budget is still going to be one of an out of touch government unable to understand the ordinary people. The U-turn isn’t the government’s first either, the coalition has performed many of them in their first two years in office and likely there will be many more. Every U-turn makes the government seem weak and possessing no sense of direction.

There are other unpopular measures in the budget, the “granny tax” and the tax cut for the wealthy. The budget from Hell and the recent return to recession is why Labour has managed to gain an eight point lead over the Conservatives. Although this does not mean that Labour can gloat just yet, it’s a long time until the next general election.

The NHS ISN’T safe in our hands

Today the government has proved to us all that despite the claims that the “NHS is safe in Conservative hands”, in reality, it isn't.

For the past 19 months the Labour MP, John Healey, has campaigned for the NHS risk register to be made public. The risk register is the government’s own report into the damages its reforms would do to the NHS. Today the cabinet exercised its rare right to veto freedom of information act requests and said that the risk register would not be made public. This has infuriated many groups opposed to the Health and Social Care Bill, in a statement today the British Medical Association said “We are disappointed that the government has decided not to publish the risk register in full. As we said well before the bill became an act, it’s vital that everyone involved knows what the potential risks might be so decisions can be made based on a full understanding of what the impact might be.”

Not only has the government vetoed the request but it has lost two court rulings on this, both times the courts have ruled in favour of making the risk register public. First time it was the information commissioner and the second time it was the first tier tribunal. Rather than take it to the upper tier tribunal, the government has simply vetoed the request. When asked about the veto, Mr Healey said “The government lost twice in law, yet still won’t accept that patients and NHS staff have the right to know the risks ministers are running with the biggest ever NHS reorganisation”.

But why would the government want to hide the risk register? Surely if their reforms were going to be as great as they have said they will be there would be not need to hide the risk register as it would prove them right. Most likely the risk register has highlighted the damages that it will do to the NHS and the government doesn’t want that to be made public.  If the public ever needed proof that this government has incompetently handled the NHS then this is it. 

A day of Celebration for Labour

Labour + 823

Conservatives: -405

Liberal Democrats: -336

Greens: +11

Without a doubt Thursday was a resounding success for Labour. Labour gained Birmingham and Wales, retained Glasgow but did not win London. The Labour party gained a total of 823 councillors, the Tories losing 405 and the Liberal Democrats losing 336.

Prior to the election the Conservatives were trying to inflate what Labour should win, saying that anything less than 700 councillors would be a failure. At the same time Labour was trying to downplay what would a good result would be, saying that getting 300 would be a good night. In reality both parties were probably predicting around 500 councillors for Labour, the truth was far better than anyone had expected. Labour managed to gain over 800 councillors, which prompted Ed Miliband to proclaim “Labour is back”. This has devastated the coalition, many Conservatives believe that they are being punished for being too liberal and allowing UKIP to take their voters.

Without a doubt the Lib Dems had the worst night of the three main parites. They have been reduced to the smallest number of councillors since the party was created 30 years ago. Lib Dems feel that they are being punished for being too Conservative.

Neither party appear to understand what being in coalition means.

What the government will try to do is point out that the turnout was painfully low, around one third, and it therefore isn’t a good indicator for public opinion. They also have pointed to the disappointing result for Labour in 1999, yet Tony Blair still went on to win in 2001. Yet they forget that Blair was coming off the back of a huge victory and a growing economy when people went to the polls in 1997. The Conservatives on the other hand haven’t won an election outright since 1992 and the economy has just fallen back into recession, although it is much better than the Lib Dems, who haven’t won an election outright since 1910…

Labour managed to take 38% of the vote, 2% up from last year, the Conservatives took 31%, down 4% and the Lib Dems took a measly 16%, unchanged from last year.

I will now go into the election results in each of the four areas of the UK that voted in detail; England, Scotland, Wales and London. 

Council Elections in England

Labour: + 534

Conservatives: -328

Liberal Democrats: -190

Green: +5

Without a doubt Labour did fantastically in England as a result of Thursday’s council elections, Labour gained control of 22 councils and held 39. Labour did very well in its heartland areas around Manchester and Liverpool where it added more councils, Labour also gained Carlisle in the north and Birmingham in the midlands. The great success for Labour was in the south, although the south is still Conservative the Labour party managed to attract many votes. Most importantly, Labour managed to attract votes from places that once voted Blair, but turned their backs and returned to the Conservatives in 2005 and 2010. This was something people thought “Red Ed” could never do. In the south Labour gained Southampton, Plymouth and Exeter and took four councillors in Cameron’s backyard of West Oxfordshire.

What Labour gained, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats lost. The Conservatives lost ten English councils, bringing their total to 42 whilst that Liberal Democrats lost one and held six. This hides just how devastated the Lib Dems were, they lost a total of 190 councillors across England. Does this mark an end to the Liberal Democrats in England? Who knows, the rise of the Greens and UKIP could facilitate a Lib Dem decline.