Breakthrough with Iran!

After a decade of bitterness between Iran and the West over the country’s nuclear weapons program, real progress has finally been made. In Geneva today an agreement was announced between Iran and six of the world’s most powerful nations (USA, UK, France, China, Germany and Russia). Iran agreed to neutralise all of its stocks of 20% enriched uranium, the kind that could make a weak nuclear weapon. Iran has also agreed to stop enriching uranium beyond 5%. The rest of the world has agreed to ease sanctions on Iran and will allow it to enrich uranium up to 5%.

The breakthrough is historic and actually achieves something. The economy of Iran should improve, which will reflect well on the moderate President, Hassan Rouhani. It would also help the poor in Iran who have been hit hard by the sanctions but have nothing to do with the nuclear program. Keeping Rouhani popular is important to the West as he is prepared to negotiate. After all we do not want a radical like Ahmadinejad to gain power and threaten our security.

Despite this deal only lasting six months, Israel is already condemning it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called it a mistake that the world will regret. I totally reject that statement as it stops Iran from enriching uranium to the point at which they could make any sort of functional nuclear weapon! Also, if it were up to Netanyahu, there would be no negotiations at all and war with Iran would be inevitable.

Make no mistake, there’s still a lot of work to be done with Iran. We have to make sure that they stick to the terms of the treaty and expand it further so that one day all sanctions that can be lifted. As Iran begins to journey from the darkness and into the light, let us hope that all future Iranian Presidents are as open to negotiations and sense as Rouhani has been!

North Korea Vs. Iran

In the past couple of years we have heard a lot about the nuclear programmes in North Korea and Iran, yet the public in the West only seems to take Iran seriously. Here are some similarities and differences between the two countries.

Both countries have issued serious threats to nearby countries. Iran has threatened to wipe Israel off the map, North Korea has threatened to turn South Korea into a "sea of fire".

Both nations have active nuclear programmes.

Both are dictatorships.

Both countries suppress free speech.

Both countries are currently under sanctions from the UN.

Both countries frequently threaten the West.

Only one has tested nuclear weapons - North Korea

Only one has nuclear weapons - North Korea

Only one has 'declared' war on its sworn enemy - North Korea

As you can see both countries are very similar in how they approach the world, yet only one of them is taken seriously by the Western Public. Despite the fact that we take North Korea less seriously, it has the more advanced nuclear programme! So why do we take Iran more seriously than North Korea? I will try and help you out.

One of the primary reasons is the culture of islamophobia in the West, particularly in the United States. The failed states, such as Afghanistan, have been breeding terrorists for decades that attacked Westerners living in the area. After Al Qaeda turned global in 2001, the fear the West had for Muslims went sky high causing many people to fear Muslims. The fact that Iran is a Muslim country fuels peoples' fears and means we take Iran more seriously. There is also the more rational fear that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, and the weapons fall into the hands of Al Qaeda, then the risk to the West would be massive.

Iran and North Korea both know that if they attack the USA, or its allies, with nuclear weapons, then the USA will retaliate with nuclear weapons, annihilating their countries. This is another reason why people are more fearful of a nuclear Iran; Iran is fun by Muslim fundamentalists and the fear is that they might decide that annihilation is worth it for 'Jihad'. On the other hand the regime in North Korea is the most important thing to North Koreans, annihilation is the last thing they want.

The last reason we take North Korea less seriously than Iran is about the image portrayed by both nations and their leaders. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is older and looks more serious than the podgy, young Kim Jong-Un. North Korean propaganda also makes North Korea look like a joke, the little we hear about them is simply hilarious. According to North Korean propaganda, Jim Il-Sung (the original dictator) had a "supernatural" birth,  Jim Jong-Il was a worldwide fashion trend setter and people loved him globally and he invented the hamburger. Less is propaganda is known about Kim Jong-Un, apart from the 'fact' that he found a unicorn lair. Seriously. And North Korea wonders why we won't take them seriously.

North Korea Determined to Start War

In 1962 the world braced itself for nuclear war, it was looking increasingly likely that the USA and USSR would be unable to come to an agreement over what to do about the Caribbean nation of Cuba. Thankfully the crisis was ended with a peace deal, not nuclear war, but the event has generally been noted by historians as the one occasion when nuclear war was a real possibility.  It would appear that Kim Jong-Un is trying to add 2013 as the next year when nuclear war could be a realistic outcome. In the past few months he has been ratcheting up tensions with the US and South Korea over a multitude of issues. The latest escalation came when the North released the following statement:

“We formally inform the White House and Pentagon that the ever-escalating US hostile policy towards the DPRK [North Korea] and its reckless nuclear threat will be smashed by the strong will of all the united service personnel and people and cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike… and that the merciless operation of its revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.”

In response to the declaration the US has begun moving nuclear defences to Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. Unfortunately this has been taken as an act of aggression by North Korea which seems hell bent on re-starting the Korean War, taking millions of people with it.

Already North Korea has declared a state of war with South Korea, although no direct actions have yet taken place. It has further antagonised the south by threatening to re-start a project to great weapons grade nuclear material and promised to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire”. Its actions earlier this year by performing another nuclear test have not helped the situation.

But will all this actually lead to a war? It’s difficult to say, it could be that Jong-Un is trying to solidify power by proving to the military leaders that he can be tough on the West. The difficulty is that Jong-Un could heighten tensions so much that war becomes inevitable, that the US or South Korea launch a pre-emptive strike out of pure fear. Very little is known about the Orwellian society so attempting to predict an outcome is difficult, will the north go to war? I would like to think not, but I’m not going to try and predict what will happen next.

North Korean Nuclear Test

North Korea has further infuriated the world earlier today when the small, isolated country carried out a third nuclear test. North Korea is a rogue state, it only has one friend in the world: China. Despite the alliance with North Korea, China is worried about what its little neighbour will do if it actually acquires fully functioning, long range, nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly the West will call for tougher sanctions on North Korea, but this won’t stop Kim Jong-Un from achieving the inevitable. The rest of the world must realise that North Korea will become a truly nuclear state within the next few years, and although we should do whatever we can to slow their progress, we must prepare for what comes after North Korea’s success. A nuclear North Korea would pose a grave threat to world security, none more so than neighbouring South Korea and close-by Japan. In both these countries people fear that the craziness of the North Korean regime should not be underestimated and that a nuclear attack on either country should not be dismissed. So what can Japan and South Korea do to defend themselves? The North Korea-South Korea border is already the most heavily fortified in the world and both countries have a massive military. Currently the situation is somewhat stable, but nuclear weapons for North Korea would throw the balance off completely. One suggestion is stationing US nuclear weapons in Japan and South Korea in a form of a nuclear sharing programme. Probably similar to how the US currently shares some nuclear weapons with several NATO countries. Naturally placing US weapons in South Korea and Japan would make China very nervous, putting a strain on Sino-American relationships. Considering the rise of China, the Americans might be wary of angering the future super power. For obvious historical reasons, many in Japan would be very upset at the idea of American nuclear weapons in Japan, especially considering they’d likely be in the south of the country close to Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

Unfortunately it’s impossible to know a way out of the situation. An invasion is totally out of the situation as the North Korean military is very strong for a small country and the border is extremely well fortified. A war would likely be as devastating to the Korean peninsula as was the previous Korean War in which 2.5 million people were killed. 

North Korea Launches Rocket

The world condemned North Korea this morning after it successfully launched a rocket into orbit. This has terrified South Korea which shares a hostile border with its northern neighbour and Japan which is also in close proximity. Both nations are aware that North Korea has nuclear weapons and with this successful satellite launch, may have a means of delivery.

Under UN sanctions North Korea is banned from launching rockets, immediately Japan called on the Security Council to hold meetings over the event. Morocco, which holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council, announced that that there would be closed door discussions today. The US was swift in its condemnation of the launch, the White House made the following statement this morning: “The international community must work in a concerted fashion to send North Korea a clear message that its violations of UN Security Council resolutions have consequences.” We won’t know for a while what those consequences will be yet. It will be important to watch what China does in this situation, China is North Korea’s closest ally, and although it warned North Korea strongly against launching the rocket, its response has been noticeably tamer than those of the other Security Council members. China will likely be angry at North Korea for following this path; this launch will likely cause North Korea, Japan and the US to increase military cooperation in the area which could weaken China’s position. Getting a resolution past China, which has a veto, could still prove difficult.

This is all happening in the context of starving North Koreans who have been brainwashed to believe that the North Korean state, and in particular its leaders, are saints. The rare glimpse we get of North Korea from the outside world is truly shocking, people praise their leaders for their guidance but unbeknownst to them their leaders don’t care about them. With the knowledge of widespread brainwashing, the type Hitler tried in Germany; it’s hard to see a revolution occurring in North Korea for a long, long time. With that in mind the West, and in particular South Korea and Japan, must prepare for a world in which North Korea can wipe out whole cities in its neighbouring countries. Would the US placing nuclear weapons in South Korea or Japan be out of the question? North Korea may be less likely to use a nuclear weapon frivolously if it thinks Japan or South Korea could launch an immediate counter strike. Could we see a revival of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) Doctrine in North East Asia? It is early days yet, but the craziness of the North Korean regime should not be underestimated, the West’s reaction needs to be swift. Very swift.  

Israelis be Careful, Iran is Watching

Last Wednesday five Israeli tourists were killed in the holiday resort of Burgas, Bulgaria. They were killed by a suicide bomber with fake US documents, the driver of the bus was also killed.

It didn't take long for the Israeli government in Jerusalem to accuse Iran of involvement. Israel believes that the attack was carried out by the Lebanese group, Hizbullah and its Iranian backers. The bombing occurred on the anniversary of another attack by the same group in which 85 people were killed in Argentina in 1994.

This bomb is unfortunately just the latest in a series of attacks (and foiled attempts) against Israelis. This year alone Israelis have been targeted in New Delhi, India, Tbilisi, Georgia, Bangkok, Thailand and Kenya. These attacks have dramatically increased the tensions between Israel, and its Western backers, and Iran. It does not help that Iran blames Israel for the deaths of several scientists that are believed to be part of the country's nuclear programme.

The Middle East has always been a very unstable region, wars have torn through the region in every decade. The Arab Spring has caused some of the region's most stable states, Egypt and Libya, to appear as unstable as Iraq. Egypt was always the Arab country most willing to make a deal with Israel. Now with the election of a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, brokering a deal with Israel seems unlikely.

The Iran-Israel crisis is just another reason why the Arab World is of major importance, we should watch it closely and be ready to defend Israel if Iran achieves its goal of nuclear arms.

North Korean Embarrassment

Yesterday North Korea was humiliate in front of the whole world when their rocket launch failed. The rocket was up in the air for only one minute before it broke up and fell into the Yellow Sea. Unlike normal, Western media was allowed into the country to record the whole thing. The reason for foreign journalists being allowed into the country is that North Korea wanted to prove to the world that its launch was solely for peaceful purposes. Despite this the launch was condemned by the world as North Korea is banned from rocket launches. Many countries believe that this launch was a disguise for a missile test for an intercontinental ballistic missile. Japan and South Korea both stated that if the rocket strayed into their airspace that they would shoot it down.

A UN Security Council meeting has been called to discuss the event with tighter sanctions likely to be the result. It will be interesting to see how the closest country North Korea has to an ally, China, reacts.

The embarrassing failure comes on the first official day of North Korea's new leader, Kim Jong-Un. In Pyongyang today two gargantuan statues were revealed of Jong-Un's predecessors Kim Jong-Il and Kim Il-Sung (who are his father and grandfather respectively). Some people believe that in an attempt to recover some pride and respect, Jong-Un will test a nuclear weapon, which will scare North Korea's neighbours and the rest of the West. When so many people are dying of starvation it is hard to see how the North Koreans put up with the expensive military, statues and space programmes. North Korea is one state where brainwashing truly has worked.

A New Cold War?

The British foreign secretary William Hague has commented on the growing concern over Iran’s nuclear program. He said that “If Iran built an atomic bomb, it could trigger the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since nuclear weapons were invented.” Although the statement is probably exaggerated, as the proliferation immediately following WWII involved the two remaining super powers and was far more serious. It is still very dangerous, if Iran gets nuclear weapons then Saudi Arabia will likely also want to get them and may look to Pakistan for help and Egypt may also attempt to get them, but due to the current political turbulence in Egypt it will be unlikely for the foreseeable future. Syria has, in the past at least, attempted to get nuclear weapons, Iran is a close ally of Syria and would likely share the information they have. Although, like Egypt, the current turbulence in Syria would hinder any attempts.

Currently Israel is the only nation to have nuclear weapons in the Middle East and if Iran were to get nuclear weapons it could trigger the first use of nuclear weapons since WWII, this would devastate the world.

What the West needs to do is to try and stop Iran peacefully; a physical attack could infuriate the Iranian authorities and make a retaliatory attack more likely. Economic and other such sanctions are what the West must continue to do. Anything Iranian must be banned from entering Western markets and the West needs to encourage other countries to do the same. If this causes the economy of Iran to collapse it would mean that the nuclear program would be forced to shut down, countries with uranium should keep track of where their exports of the substance go. A physical attack on Iran would also have serious logistical issues as the location of where Iran is developing the bombs is heavily fortified and underground. A simple air attack would prove impossible; it would have to be a ground attack. This would be near impossible.

With the Cold War between west and east over for twenty years I hope that Iran won’t push us into another bitter Cold War. Hopefully outside pressures from all sides will dissuade a serious arms race, but with Iran being a complete rogue nation, nobody knows what the outcome will be.

William Hague's comment has heated up the debate on  Iran's nuclear program

Nuclear Weapons

Since 1945, when America destroyed two Japanese cities, nuclear weapons have been central to negotiations between west and east. When the Cold War ended in the early 1990s, helped by the breakup of the USSR and Warsaw Pact, the amount of nuclear warheads has subsequently decreased significantly. To understand the place of nuclear weapons in the modern world we need to know which countries have nuclear weapons and which countries want them.

The five permanent UN Security Council members have their own weapons which they control independently (China, France, Russia, UK, USA) and are members of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty). Non-NPT members who have declared that they have weapons are India, Pakistan and North Korea. Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Turkey have a nuclear sharing programme organised through NATO. Israel is known to have nuclear weapons, but refuses to declare this. There is strong evidence that Iran is attempting to get nuclear weapons but she denies this.

There have always been campaigns against nuclear weapons, especially in the west through CND and other anti-Nuclear organisations. The reason why the west has nuclear weapons is as a deterrent against aggressive regimes such as Iran and North Korea. I believe that all the signatories of the NPT and the non-signatories Pakistan and India would not fire weapons at a country, provoked or un-provoked. I cannot say the same for Iran and North Korea, they are rogue nations which appear to want to destroy other countries without thought for the consequences. Iran is particularly dangerous as it has promised that if Iran gets nuclear weapons it will obliterate Israel. Also, due to the religious beliefs of many Iranians, they may not mind if firing nuclear weapons at Israel results in the death of half their population after a retaliatory attack. This is very dangerous for our world and the NWS (Nuclear Weapon States) must keep their weapons as a deterrent against Iran and North Korea. Not only do nuclear weapons dissuade other countries from firing or getting them, it also dissuades them from attacking or invading other countries unprovoked and because of this nuclear warheads can be said to be helping to maintain world peace.

I believe that no nation should have nuclear warheads but in an imperfect world, the west would not be safe without them.

Light blue - NWS & NPT
Dark blue - Nuclear sharing (NATO)
Red - Declared NWS non-NPT
Black - suspected of attempting to get weapons
Yellow - Got weapons but does not declare
Green - ex-nuclear weapon states

Mother Nature

It was a rather devastating year thanks to mother nature. In Japan one of the largest recorded earthquakes ever occurred off its north eastern coast. Although the earthquake itself did little damage, it was the massive tsunami that followed that wreaked the devastation. Over 15,000 people were killed in a matter of minutes. The Fukushima Nuclear reactor nearly went into meltdown, which would have caused a Chernobyl-scale disaster according to experts. Thankfully, due to the bravery of a few men, the problem was solved. Yet this event raised the issue over the safety of nuclear power. As a reaction to the tsunami many nuclear reactors in Japan are being shut down and programs across the world have been suspended or cancelled. Unfortunately Japan was not the only country to experience earthquakes, New Zealand and Turkey both experienced two earthquakes in the same area of their countries.

Floods tore through many nations, Brazil had flooding in Rio de Janeiro and 500 lives were lost in the torrents. Floods also returned to Pakistan for the second year and although not as devastating as 2010, they still destroyed the livelihoods of millions of people. Australia and the Philippines also experienced devastating floods.

Statistics show that over the past few decades the cost of natural disasters has been, for the most part, rising. One of the problems is the world’s expanding population. Countries are becoming more overcrowded and people are being forced to live on flood plains and other places often subjected to natural disasters. This will inevitably cause a rise in the cost of natural disasters and will pose difficult tasks for the years ahead.

The Japanese tsunami as it came ashore.

North Korea

Kim Jong-Il died last December, although North Korea only really has one friend in China, the world still watches with interest over Kim’s death. North Korea is one of the few remaining communist countries left and certainly the most secretive. It has a huge military (4^th in the world in terms of active military personnel, despite being 51^st in terms of population), every so often it has minor border scraps with South Korea that keep tensions between the two Koreas high. But it is the country’s nuclear capabilities that worry the rest of the world. Especially since Kim Jong-Il’s inexperienced son, Kim Jong-Un is the one to take power. The fears of a scrap between the leading generals in who will control North Korea have yet to occur, if they ever do. I feel that he will likely remain a puppet leader with the generals making the actual decisions.

Watching the funeral was quite fascinating, it’s hard to imagine any western country pouring out that much grief over a dead leader. How much of that grief was genuine, we probably will never know, on the one hand the people of Korea are so brainwashed to think that Kim Jong-Il was the man who saved them from the evil outside world that the grief might actually be genuine. Yet in a country were half the people are starving and the top live in total luxury (so much for “communism”) it’s hard to imagine that if they knew the truth, they’d be so devastated.

Kim Jong-Il