Final Senate Predictions

Updated Prediction

Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Leans Dem	Tossup	Leans Rep	Likely Rep	Safe Rep
DE, HI, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA, MI		North Carolina, New Hampshire	Kansas, Iowa, Georgia	Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana	Alaska, South Dakota,	AL, ID, ME, MS, NE, OK, OK*, SC, SC*, TN, TX, WY, WV, MT
47 Democrats			3 Tossups	50 Republicans

Most likely scenario is that the Republicans take control of the Senate. The Republicans need to secure just one of the tossup seats of a possible three. Democrats need to take both Iowa and Georgia and then get Greg Orman to caucus with them to hold onto the Senate. Polls at the moment are putting the Republicans in Iowa and Georgia ahead by 1% point, if the polls are accurate then a GOP majority is almost certain.

February Prediction

Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Leans Dem	Tossup	Leans Rep	Likely Rep	Safe Rep
DE, HI, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA	Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire	Alaska, North Carolina, Michigan	Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana	Georgia, Montana	South Dakota, West Virginia	AL, ID, KS, ME, MS, NE, OK, OK*, SC, SC*, TN, TX, WY
50 Democrats			3 Tossups	47 Republicans

1% Democratic skew in the polls

Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Leans Dem	Tossup	Leans Rep	Likely Rep	Safe Rep
DE, HI, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA, MI		New Hampshire	Kansas, North Carolina	Iowa, Georgia, Colorado	Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, South Dakota	AL, ID, ME, MS, NE, OK, OK*, SC, SC*, TN, TX, WY, WV, MT, AK
46 Democrats			2 Tossups	52 Republicans

As you can see any kind of pro-Democratic skew in the polls would result in a Republican majority without a doubt. Interestingly this scenario means that the Republicans cannot lose Kansas as Orman has promised to caucus with the party that makes up a majority.

2% Republican skew in the polls

Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Leans Ind	Tossup	Leans Rep	Likely Rep	Safe Rep
DE, HI, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA, MI	New Hampshire, North Carolina	Kansas	Iowa, Georgia, Colorado, Arkansas, Kentucky	Louisiana	Alaska, South Dakota	AL, ID, ME, MS, NE, OK, OK*, SC, SC*, TN, TX, WY, WV, MT
47 Democrats			5 Tossups	47 Republicans
1 Independent

A sign of just how tough the election is going to be, even a 2% pro-Republican skew in polls doesn’t automatically produce a Democratic majority. Despite that, a 2% skew would probably produce a Democratic majority. If the Democrats want to win a majority without Orman’s support, then they need to win three of the five Tossups (remember that Joe Biden will break a 50-50 tie in favour of Democrats). It’s slightly tougher for Republicans as they could only afford to lose one of the Tossups. Considering that a 2% skew would mean that Iowa and Georgia are actually slightly more favourable towards Democrats and that Colorado would be a true tossup, it would be a huge struggle.

2% Democratic skew in the polls

Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Leans Dem	Tossup	Leans Rep	Likely Rep	Safe Rep
DE, HI, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA, MI			North Carolina, New Hampshire	Iowa, Georgia, Kansas,	Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, South Dakota	AL, ID, ME, MS, NE, OK, OK*, SC, SC*, TN, TX, WY, WV, MT, AK
45 Democrats			2 Tossups	53 Republicans

Unsurprisingly a 2% pro-Democratic skew in the polls means that Republicans will definitely win a majority.

  

3% Republican skew in the polls

Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Leans Dem/Ind	Tossup	Leans Rep	Likely Rep	Safe Rep
DE, HI, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA, MI	New Hampshire, North Carolina	Kansas, Iowa, Georgia	Colorado, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana	Alaska	South Dakota	AL, ID, ME, MS, NE, OK, OK*, SC, SC*, TN, TX, WY, WV, MT
49 Democrats			4 Tossups	46 Republicans
1 Independent

A Democratic majority would be all but certain. They would only need to win one of the tossups to secure a majority without Orman’s help. Even if they lost all the ones classed as Tossup, they could still court Orman into caucusing with them.

3% Democratic skew in the polls

Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Leans Dem	Tossup	Leans Rep	Likely Rep	Safe Rep
DE, HI, IL, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA, MI			North Carolina, New Hampshire	Kansas,	Arkansas, Iowa, Georgia, Colorado, Kentucky,	AL, ID, ME, MS, NE, OK, OK*, SC, SC*, TN, TX, WY, WV, MT, AK, LA, SD
45 Democrats			2 Tossups	53 Republicans

It feels almost pointless doing this one as the only changes are states going from leans/likely Republican to likely/safe Republican. 

Note: Although this will likely be my final blog post about the elections, I may update my predictions on Twitter. You find me at www.twitter.com/michaeljspence