Breakthrough with Iran!

After a decade of bitterness between Iran and the West over the country’s nuclear weapons program, real progress has finally been made. In Geneva today an agreement was announced between Iran and six of the world’s most powerful nations (USA, UK, France, China, Germany and Russia). Iran agreed to neutralise all of its stocks of 20% enriched uranium, the kind that could make a weak nuclear weapon. Iran has also agreed to stop enriching uranium beyond 5%. The rest of the world has agreed to ease sanctions on Iran and will allow it to enrich uranium up to 5%.

The breakthrough is historic and actually achieves something. The economy of Iran should improve, which will reflect well on the moderate President, Hassan Rouhani. It would also help the poor in Iran who have been hit hard by the sanctions but have nothing to do with the nuclear program. Keeping Rouhani popular is important to the West as he is prepared to negotiate. After all we do not want a radical like Ahmadinejad to gain power and threaten our security.

Despite this deal only lasting six months, Israel is already condemning it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called it a mistake that the world will regret. I totally reject that statement as it stops Iran from enriching uranium to the point at which they could make any sort of functional nuclear weapon! Also, if it were up to Netanyahu, there would be no negotiations at all and war with Iran would be inevitable.

Make no mistake, there’s still a lot of work to be done with Iran. We have to make sure that they stick to the terms of the treaty and expand it further so that one day all sanctions that can be lifted. As Iran begins to journey from the darkness and into the light, let us hope that all future Iranian Presidents are as open to negotiations and sense as Rouhani has been!

North Korea Vs. Iran

In the past couple of years we have heard a lot about the nuclear programmes in North Korea and Iran, yet the public in the West only seems to take Iran seriously. Here are some similarities and differences between the two countries.

Both countries have issued serious threats to nearby countries. Iran has threatened to wipe Israel off the map, North Korea has threatened to turn South Korea into a "sea of fire".

Both nations have active nuclear programmes.

Both are dictatorships.

Both countries suppress free speech.

Both countries are currently under sanctions from the UN.

Both countries frequently threaten the West.

Only one has tested nuclear weapons - North Korea

Only one has nuclear weapons - North Korea

Only one has 'declared' war on its sworn enemy - North Korea

As you can see both countries are very similar in how they approach the world, yet only one of them is taken seriously by the Western Public. Despite the fact that we take North Korea less seriously, it has the more advanced nuclear programme! So why do we take Iran more seriously than North Korea? I will try and help you out.

One of the primary reasons is the culture of islamophobia in the West, particularly in the United States. The failed states, such as Afghanistan, have been breeding terrorists for decades that attacked Westerners living in the area. After Al Qaeda turned global in 2001, the fear the West had for Muslims went sky high causing many people to fear Muslims. The fact that Iran is a Muslim country fuels peoples' fears and means we take Iran more seriously. There is also the more rational fear that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, and the weapons fall into the hands of Al Qaeda, then the risk to the West would be massive.

Iran and North Korea both know that if they attack the USA, or its allies, with nuclear weapons, then the USA will retaliate with nuclear weapons, annihilating their countries. This is another reason why people are more fearful of a nuclear Iran; Iran is fun by Muslim fundamentalists and the fear is that they might decide that annihilation is worth it for 'Jihad'. On the other hand the regime in North Korea is the most important thing to North Koreans, annihilation is the last thing they want.

The last reason we take North Korea less seriously than Iran is about the image portrayed by both nations and their leaders. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is older and looks more serious than the podgy, young Kim Jong-Un. North Korean propaganda also makes North Korea look like a joke, the little we hear about them is simply hilarious. According to North Korean propaganda, Jim Il-Sung (the original dictator) had a "supernatural" birth,  Jim Jong-Il was a worldwide fashion trend setter and people loved him globally and he invented the hamburger. Less is propaganda is known about Kim Jong-Un, apart from the 'fact' that he found a unicorn lair. Seriously. And North Korea wonders why we won't take them seriously.

Syria, the Never-ending Problem

There has been one major area of policy that Romney has largely ignored in the current presidential election and that is foreign policy. Anytime he does attempt to draw a position, it turns into a major gaffe; during his overseas trip in July he managed to insult the British, Arabs and Polish. More recently he politicised the death of US ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, before he even knew the facts and he failed to mention the war in Afghanistan during his acceptance speech at the RNC last month. Now Romney is attempting to weigh in on the Syrian crisis as the battle is getting increasingly bloody. It is also important to note that Romney views Syria as a way to get at Iran, Syria is one of Iran's closest allies; he believes depriving Iran of another ally would be extremely bad for President Ahmadinejad. In extracts from a speech he will make later today Romney says:

“Iran is sending arms to Assad because they know his downfall would be a strategic defeat for them. We should be working no less vigorously with our international partners to support the many Syrians who would deliver that defeat to Iran – rather than sitting on the sidelines.”

Romney believes that America should arm the rebels, not just with small arms, but with heavy weapons that could take out tanks and helicopters. Do you remember when America armed rebels in Afghanistan? Do you also remember when some of those rebels used their American training to carry out 9/11? This is an extremely risky strategy, although I do believe that the vast majority of the Syrian rebels are genuinely trying to overthrow a dictatorial regime, islamists from across the Arab world are seeing Syria as a possible training site for a future generation of jihadists.

There are also fears that the Syrian conflict could spill over into some of its more unstable neighbours; Iraq and Lebanon and maybe destabilise Jordan as well. The chances of a Turkish invasion of Syria are looking increasingly likely; Syria has already shot down Turkish fighter jets and launched missiles into Turkish villages killing hundreds. Syria has abandoned the Kurdish area of its country; Turkey fears that in doing so it will become a training ground for Kurdish rebels who will attack Turkey. Just a few days ago the Turkish parliament voted to allow moving Turkish forces into Syria if it was provoked, sending a clear message to Damascus that it must stop attacking Turks.

With the international community totally paralysed thanks to the actions of Russia and China it is difficult to see what the West should do next. Maybe Mitt Romney’s idea is the right thing to do, although history suggests that we may get more than we wish for. 

The Death Penalty - The Facts

Last year over 4,000 people were executed across the globe, many of these were executed for petty reasons and many will also be innocent.

The following map shows the extent of execution in our world, red indicates that the country retains the death penalty; orange indicates the country retains the death penalty but has not used it in over ten years. Green indicates that the country has abolished the death penalty except for exceptional circumstances (such as war) and blue indicates that a country has abolished the death penalty in all circumstances.

 This map gives an indication over where we’re at in the world. Europe has the best record on execution; Belarus is the only country in Europe that still executes prisoners. One of the reasons that Europe has such a good record on execution is that both the Council of Europe and the European Union require members to abolish the death penalty before they are admitted.  The Americas is another continent with a good record, the majority of countries have not used it in the past ten years. Only three countries still actively use the death penalty, the USA, St Kitts and Nevis and Cuba. Australasia has mostly abolished the death penalty, with only a few (very small) states still actively using it.

Asia is the worst offender when it comes to execution: of the 21 nations that performed executions (officially) in 2011, 15 of the states were Asian.  The top four states by number of people executed were also Asian.  China carries out more executions that all other nations combined, it is thought that in 2011 China executed up to 4,000 people. Although there have been moves in China to reduce the amount of crimes that result in execution. 

Israelis be Careful, Iran is Watching

Last Wednesday five Israeli tourists were killed in the holiday resort of Burgas, Bulgaria. They were killed by a suicide bomber with fake US documents, the driver of the bus was also killed.

It didn't take long for the Israeli government in Jerusalem to accuse Iran of involvement. Israel believes that the attack was carried out by the Lebanese group, Hizbullah and its Iranian backers. The bombing occurred on the anniversary of another attack by the same group in which 85 people were killed in Argentina in 1994.

This bomb is unfortunately just the latest in a series of attacks (and foiled attempts) against Israelis. This year alone Israelis have been targeted in New Delhi, India, Tbilisi, Georgia, Bangkok, Thailand and Kenya. These attacks have dramatically increased the tensions between Israel, and its Western backers, and Iran. It does not help that Iran blames Israel for the deaths of several scientists that are believed to be part of the country's nuclear programme.

The Middle East has always been a very unstable region, wars have torn through the region in every decade. The Arab Spring has caused some of the region's most stable states, Egypt and Libya, to appear as unstable as Iraq. Egypt was always the Arab country most willing to make a deal with Israel. Now with the election of a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, brokering a deal with Israel seems unlikely.

The Iran-Israel crisis is just another reason why the Arab World is of major importance, we should watch it closely and be ready to defend Israel if Iran achieves its goal of nuclear arms.

A New Cold War?

The British foreign secretary William Hague has commented on the growing concern over Iran’s nuclear program. He said that “If Iran built an atomic bomb, it could trigger the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since nuclear weapons were invented.” Although the statement is probably exaggerated, as the proliferation immediately following WWII involved the two remaining super powers and was far more serious. It is still very dangerous, if Iran gets nuclear weapons then Saudi Arabia will likely also want to get them and may look to Pakistan for help and Egypt may also attempt to get them, but due to the current political turbulence in Egypt it will be unlikely for the foreseeable future. Syria has, in the past at least, attempted to get nuclear weapons, Iran is a close ally of Syria and would likely share the information they have. Although, like Egypt, the current turbulence in Syria would hinder any attempts.

Currently Israel is the only nation to have nuclear weapons in the Middle East and if Iran were to get nuclear weapons it could trigger the first use of nuclear weapons since WWII, this would devastate the world.

What the West needs to do is to try and stop Iran peacefully; a physical attack could infuriate the Iranian authorities and make a retaliatory attack more likely. Economic and other such sanctions are what the West must continue to do. Anything Iranian must be banned from entering Western markets and the West needs to encourage other countries to do the same. If this causes the economy of Iran to collapse it would mean that the nuclear program would be forced to shut down, countries with uranium should keep track of where their exports of the substance go. A physical attack on Iran would also have serious logistical issues as the location of where Iran is developing the bombs is heavily fortified and underground. A simple air attack would prove impossible; it would have to be a ground attack. This would be near impossible.

With the Cold War between west and east over for twenty years I hope that Iran won’t push us into another bitter Cold War. Hopefully outside pressures from all sides will dissuade a serious arms race, but with Iran being a complete rogue nation, nobody knows what the outcome will be.

William Hague's comment has heated up the debate on  Iran's nuclear program

Nuclear Weapons

Since 1945, when America destroyed two Japanese cities, nuclear weapons have been central to negotiations between west and east. When the Cold War ended in the early 1990s, helped by the breakup of the USSR and Warsaw Pact, the amount of nuclear warheads has subsequently decreased significantly. To understand the place of nuclear weapons in the modern world we need to know which countries have nuclear weapons and which countries want them.

The five permanent UN Security Council members have their own weapons which they control independently (China, France, Russia, UK, USA) and are members of the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty). Non-NPT members who have declared that they have weapons are India, Pakistan and North Korea. Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Turkey have a nuclear sharing programme organised through NATO. Israel is known to have nuclear weapons, but refuses to declare this. There is strong evidence that Iran is attempting to get nuclear weapons but she denies this.

There have always been campaigns against nuclear weapons, especially in the west through CND and other anti-Nuclear organisations. The reason why the west has nuclear weapons is as a deterrent against aggressive regimes such as Iran and North Korea. I believe that all the signatories of the NPT and the non-signatories Pakistan and India would not fire weapons at a country, provoked or un-provoked. I cannot say the same for Iran and North Korea, they are rogue nations which appear to want to destroy other countries without thought for the consequences. Iran is particularly dangerous as it has promised that if Iran gets nuclear weapons it will obliterate Israel. Also, due to the religious beliefs of many Iranians, they may not mind if firing nuclear weapons at Israel results in the death of half their population after a retaliatory attack. This is very dangerous for our world and the NWS (Nuclear Weapon States) must keep their weapons as a deterrent against Iran and North Korea. Not only do nuclear weapons dissuade other countries from firing or getting them, it also dissuades them from attacking or invading other countries unprovoked and because of this nuclear warheads can be said to be helping to maintain world peace.

I believe that no nation should have nuclear warheads but in an imperfect world, the west would not be safe without them.

Light blue - NWS & NPT
Dark blue - Nuclear sharing (NATO)
Red - Declared NWS non-NPT
Black - suspected of attempting to get weapons
Yellow - Got weapons but does not declare
Green - ex-nuclear weapon states