Scotland Nearly Says Goodbye

2014 could have been the year that the United Kingdom was torn asunder if Scotland had voted yes in the independence referendum held in September. Fortunately Scottish voters rejected independence 55% - 45% on a record breaking turnout of 85%!

For most of the campaign the result was considered a forgone conclusion; that Scottish voters would reject independence and stay in the Union. That assumption by the press was largely based on two reasons; the deficit the yes vote had at the beginning of the campaign and the near unanimity of opinion of the establishment against independence. The large deficit existed right up until August when suddenly the yes vote surged in popularity, some polls even showed yes voters outnumbering no voters! All of a sudden the Better Together campaign (the official campaign advocating a no vote) entered panic mode. The establishment suddenly realised that there was a very real chance that Scotland might vote yes. All of a sudden the leaders of the three main parties began making big promises of new powers for Scotland if they voted no. Gordon Brown, who is still very popular in Scotland, also made a number of high profile appearances towards the end of the campaign to try and encourage Scots to vote no. Some commentators have gone so far as to even credit him with saving the Union.  

Although independence failed in the September referendum it has completely revolutionised politics there. Alex Salmond, the leader of the SNP, resigned his position and was replaced by his protégé Nicola Sturgeon. He has since announced that he will run in the 2015 General Election in the constituency of Gordon. The seat is currently held by the Lib Dems but will almost certainly flip in May. The leader of Scottish Labour, Johann Lamont, was another casualty of the referendum, resigning not long after the results were in. She explained that she was fed up with the main Labour Party treating Scottish Labour as a branch office. Lamont was replaced with Jim Murphy, which was a huge error on Labour’s part. The SNP is doing extraordinarily well in the polls, and it looks like the party could win a majority of Scotland’s MPs in the upcoming General Election. The questions raised by the referendum on how much control Scotland should have of its future have yet to be answered. How the various players in Scottish politics act over the next few years will be hugely important for the future of Scotland within the Union. Independence may have been defeated, but a beast has been woken.

Referendum results by council area
Darker red means larger margin for no
Green areas mean a majority voted yes
source: www.wikipedia.org

Now For the Great British Debate

As someone who was always a very staunch no, I am delighted that Scotland has voted to stay in the union. Yet do not believe for a second that this means that questions and issues raised during the campaign will be ignored until the next referendum. I say next referendum as if nothing changes then another referendum will be inevitable, as will a yes result. The referendum has invigorated people, and the demand for change is far too great for politicians across the United Kingdom to ignore. We need a “Great British Debate” on how to reform our country, a debate which involves every part of the country and every political party small or large, not just the big three and the SNP. We must find a way to make British democracy more representative by replacing First Past the Post. We need to federalise the United Kingdom with defined, and equal powers for the parliaments created, including regional parliaments for England. This is the greatest opportunity we have had since the end of WWII to radically reform Britain. Let’s do it.

A new method of voting for MPs

In the 2010 General Election, the Tories won 36.4% of the vote and 47.1% of the seats, labour won 29% of the vote and 39% of the seats, whilst the Liberal Democrats won 23% of the vote yet only 8% of the seats! This is clearly not particularly democratic, but the 2010 General Election was one of the most representative elections we have had! For example; in 2005 Labour won 35.2% of the vote and 55.2% of the seats!

I do not support full proportional representation for a couple of reasons; I believe that it is important to have local representatives that are elected locally, which cannot be done under proportional representation. I also believe that when selecting a government you need to have a balance between democracy and effective government. Having proportional representation frequently leads to reduced government efficiency due to more coalitions of many different parties forming. It also eradicates any chance that independents or regionalist parties will get elected. I believe the best way to balance the interests of democracy with effective government is the d’Hondt method. This is the way we send MEPs to the European Parliament.

I propose merging constituencies into ‘mega constituencies’, which would send around 4 MPs to parliament each. This would mean that you maintain a local representative, have a more democratic system without causing coalitions of half a dozen parties.

Giving votes to 16 and 17 year olds

Another important step forward in democracy would be to give 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote, as they received in the referendum. It is supported by the Liberal Democrats (who had it in their 2010 manifesto) and the Labour Party (Miliband announced the policy during last year’s Labour Party Conference) but opposed by the Conservatives. As a country we have decided that at 16 you are mature enough to leave school, raise a family and join the military. Surely that means we have decided already that they are mature enough to vote.

House of Lords Reform

It is time to get rid of the remaining hereditary peers in the House of Lords altogether, along with the Church of England Bishops. It is also time to make the chamber at least partially elected, to reflect the views of the people of the country. The reason why I do not want a wholly elected House of Lords is because I believe that it can be beneficial to the country to have people who are in Parliament because of their expertise, rather than their electability. Technocracy in moderation is a good thing. Quite what proportion of the House should be elected is up for debate, but I believe it should be no lower than 1/3. However, I do not want the House of Lords to have the power to veto laws, as at the end of the day it should be only the people’s representatives that decide whether or not a law should pass.

Federalising the United Kingdom

This will be the hardest part of the whole process and will require a lot of hard work from every part and party of the United Kingdom. I completely agree with Ed Miliband that we should have a constitutional convention within the United Kingdom some time after next year’s election. Each of the new parliaments should have the same defined powers along a similar line to the states that make up the USA. A great debate should occur over what powers these new parliaments should have. How can they raise taxes or spend money? Should they control their own education systems? What about the NHS and benefits? Since this debate is only just beginning, I do not know exactly where my opinions are just yet. Once I decide on a point of view, I will be sure to inform you!

So involve yourself in the Great British Debate, read up about the different possibilities, write to your local representatives at every level and make sure to change this country for the better!

Scotland Says No! - Now For Change

Scotland has said no thanks to becoming an independent country, 44.7% voted yes whilst 55.3% voted no on a turnout of 84.59%! This isthe highest turnout since universal suffrage was introduced in 1918. The highest turnout was in East Dunbartonshire at 91%, whereas the lowest was in Glasgow, where only 75% of people voted. For comparison, elections to the Scottish Parliament have never had higher turnout than 59% (1999). Of the 32 councils, only North Lanarkshire, Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire and Dundee voted yes. Here is a table of how each council voted, ranked by margin of victory for no.

	Yes	No	Margin for No
Orkney	32.8	67.2	34.4
Scottish Borders	33.44	66.56	33.12
Dumfries & Galloway	34.33	65.67	31.34
Shetland	36.29	63.71	27.42
East Renfrewshire	36.81	63.19	26.38
East Lothian	38.28	61.72	23.44
East Dunbartonshire	38.8	61.2	22.4
Aberdeenshire	39.64	60.36	20.72
Perth & Kinross	39.81	60.19	20.38
Edinburgh	39.81	60.19	20.38
Stirling	40.23	59.77	19.54
Aberdeen City	41.39	58.61	17.22
Argyll & Bute	41.48	58.52	17.04
South Ayrshire	42.13	57.87	15.74
Moray	42.44	57.56	15.12
Angus	43.68	56.32	12.64
Midlothian	43.7	56.3	12.6
West Lothian	44.32	55.18	10.86
Fife	44.95	55.05	10.1
South Lanarkshire	45.33	54.67	9.34
Clackmannanshire	46.2	53.8	7.6
Falkirk	46.53	53.47	6.94
Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	46.58	53.42	6.84
Highland	47.08	52.92	5.84
Renfrewshire	47.19	52.81	5.62
East Ayrshire	47.22	52.78	5.56
North Ayrshire	48.99	51.01	2.02
Inverclyde	49.92	50.08	0.16
North Lanarkshire	51.07	48.93	-2.14
Glasgow	53.49	46.51	-6.98
West Dunbartonshire	53.09	46.04	-7.05
Dundee	57.35	42.65	-14.7

Source: BBC

Following the loss in the referendum, Alex Salmond has decided to resign as First Minister of Scotland. I find this rather peculiar, at the beginning of the campaign everyone expected the result to be a resounding no. It was Salmond and the SNP that gave independence a real chance of winning. Nationalists will miss him greatly, and although I don’t like him, he is without a doubt a very able politician. 

On my opinion on what do to next read the post "Now For the Great British Debate"

For polling on how different groups voted in the referendum click here.

Scotland Takes Step Towards a Referendum

Scotland has taken a step forward to a referendum on independence that could break the United Kingdom into fragments.

The governments in Westminster and Edinburgh have come to an agreement on what will happen. It has been agreed that the timing, the wording of the question and the franchise will all be decided in the Scottish parliament. David Cameron will meet with Alex Salmond tomorrow to sign the deal that could end this country.

Although polling still shows Scots rejecting independence by around 2:1, a lot can happen in two years. With the UK economy still in recession, Salmond offers Scotland some hope. If the UK economy continues to drag on as it is, then many people may flock to the pro-independence side. If Scotland does reject independence it will cause problems for the SNP and could do irreparable damage. The base would be demotivated and in reality, it would become just another left wing party. Yet the margin of defeat is important, if it is defeated by a large margin then Scotland will remain safely in the UK for a long time. If it is only defeated by a small margin then there would be a legitimate argument for calling another referendum five years later!

The debate over the coming months in the Scottish parliament will be an intense one as the opposing sides clash; for once the Lib Dems, Conservatives and Labour will be arguing for the same thing. The SNP was already dealt a blow earlier this year when the Green Party withdrew from the Yes campaign, saying the SNP was excluding other parties from participation in the movement. What happens next is key to the survival of what was once, the world’s most powerful nation. 

Council Elections in Scotland

Labour: +58

SNP: + 57

Conservatives: -16

Liberal Democrats: - 80

Greens: +6

Scotland went well for both Labour and the SNP, both parties made significant gains. Thankfully for Labour they managed to retain Glasgow council amongst widespread fears that they would lose overall control of Glasgow, even if the SNP didn’t manage to take control.

Labour managed to gain 58 councillors and the SNP 57, since Labour started out with fewer councillors, the percentage increase was better than the SNP. The system by which councils are elected in Scotland makes it hard for one party to gain overall control, meaning that most councils do not have one-party rule. Previous to Thursday’s election Labour had overall control in only two councils, Glasgow and North Lanarkshire, both remained under Labour control, Labour also managed to gain Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire. The SNP started off with no overall control of councils but managed to gain Angus and Dundee, much to Alex Salmond’s delight. The SNP made good gains in Aberdeenshire to strengthen their role as biggest party, but in Aberdeen a good night for Labour meant that they overtook the SNP as the council’s biggest party.

Alex Salmond was publically delighted with this result, but in private I’d imagine it would be a different story. Although Thursday was a success for him, many people, including those in his own party, predicted significantly better results than this.

The Liberal Democrats have much to feel upset about, losing 80 councillors, reducing them to just 71. The Conservatives lost 16 councillors but are happy with the result as they are now the third party in Scotland, having overtaken the Liberal Democrats.