The New World Order

Between the Age of Discovery in the 15^th century and World War Two, European nations ruled the world, both directly and indirectly. The colonial Empires of Spain and Portugal dominating in the early years of Empire, but they were eventually leapfrogged by the French and British Empires, and to a lesser extent the Dutch Empire. Russia, Germany, Austria and Italy also played an important role, especially in the later years. By the time the 20^th century dawned the world was changing, Japan and the US were emerging powers and Germany was threatening the balance of power within Europe itself. The two World Wars that followed devastated Europe, both economically and politically, immediately after WWII the empires of France and Britain fell apart and the UK handed superpower status to the USSR and USA. Yet Europe was far from unimportant, the USSR was a European country after all, and Germany, France and Britain still commanded significant influence. But with the fall of the USSR in the early 1990s, for the first time in modern history, the most powerful and important nation was not a European one, rather the USA.

So I think I’ve made my point, countries rise and fall and everyone has to adapt to the new world order brought about every century or so. Although Europe is still far from unimportant, of the top 20 economies, nine are European and of the five countries with a veto on the UN Security Council, three are European.

The Question is where is the world heading? Who will be the new countries on the scene, which nations will challenge western power?

The truth is nobody really knows, but there are certainly contenders. Over the next few days I will write about countries I believe could take the mantle of power from the West. The big debate surrounds whether China will eventually best the USA or will another country be the one to overtake America?

The following are the countries I believe have a chance of besting the west:

1.       China – the favourite to become the next superpower

2.       India – A rising nation with a population set to become bigger than China

3.       Brazil – the big boy of the South American economies

4.       Mexico – the rising star that may not be if drug lords have their way

5.       Indonesia – the island nation could be a surprise winner

6.       Africa – as a continent it will not take power any time soon – but its day will surely come 

New World Order Countries in red

Empires Today

In 1997 the British handed Hong Kong back to Chinese, with a population of around 5 million this was the last major colony of any country. But the old colonial empires are not totally gone, their remnants still exist and although they are small, they do have major benefits for the countries that own them. Officially the only countries which still have empires are France and the UK, the USA also has areas similar to an Empire, but is not considered to be so. The UK has territories in the Mediterranean, Caribbean, Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans. These are mostly small islands with relatively small populations; the total population of all 17 is around 510,000 people. The benefit for the UK is not the people, but the location, being scattered across the globe means the UK can place military bases around the world. Akrotiri and Dhekeli and the creatively named British Indian Ocean Territory are mostly military bases. By nature of them being islands they significantly increase the size of the UK’s EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone), this is the area over which a state has special rights on exploration or the use of marine resources and extends up to 200 nautical miles from the coast. The UK has 6.8 million km² of EEZ, mainly thanks to the overseas territories. This means that any oil found in that area would benefit the UK greatly.

France also benefits significantly from the remnants of the era of Empires although the system through which France governs them is more complicated than the UK. Contrary to what most people believe, parts of France are outside of Europe, such as French Guiana in South America. These are actually part of France in the same way that Paris and Marseilles are. France also has territories which are not part of France and she governs them similar to hoe the UK governs her overseas territories. France experiences significant benefits just like the UK from its overseas territories such as the ability to put military bases in any ocean and benefits from a huge EEZ, the second largest in the world!

Other countries have remnants of their colonial empires, parts of the Netherlands are in the Caribbean and Portugal owns a number of Atlantic islands. Norway controls a small island in the south Atlantic called Bouvet Island, Denmark controls Greenland and the Faroe Islands and Spain owns a few Atlantic islands. Even the USA owns a few islands in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean. All these countries benefit significantly from the control of overseas territories. This scattering of islands owned by the west on every continent and in every ocean gives the west an advantage that the east will never be able to get. China and India will only be able to place military bases where they please if they harbour good relations with other countries.

The age of empires is long gone, but the legacy of that era still influences the world today. 

The Eurozone

This year saw the Eurozone go to the brink of collapse and it still hasn’t fully recovered. The issue was over the level of government debt, most worryingly in the “PIIGS” countries, the less than complimentary acronym for Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. The turbulent year for the economies of Greece and Italy pushed out their heads of government and replaced them with non-elected technocrats. Many people feel that this threatens the Western ideal of democracy. Within a year of each other Ireland, Greece and Portugal all had to ask for bailouts from the EU/IMF to keep their economies afloat. Greece was constantly in our news especially in the latter half of our year as the country tinkered towards the edge of the abyss.

2012 will be an interesting year for Europe, each economist predicting different scenarios ranging from a complete Euro breakup to a tighter “Euro Compact” of the stable northern countries or just with a few of the peripheral countries leaving. It is difficult to tell what will happen in 2012, but nonetheless it will be a make or break year for the Eurozone.

A map of Europe

Red indicates Eurozone members

Blue indicates non-Eurozone members of the EU

White indicates European countries not in the EU

Grey represents non-European countries