The Rise of ISIS

The Syrian Civil War has continued throughout 2014, devastating the country and spilling over into neighbouring Iraq.

The devastation and destruction of Syria by years of Civil War left the country unable to defend itself from attack by a “new” fundamentalist and Islamist terrorist group. The group is referred to by several different titles; ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), IS (Islamic State) and the Caliphate. I will be referring to it as ISIS due to the fact that currently it controls vast swathes of Iraq and Syria. Although ISIS actually formed in 1999, it was relatively unknown in the West until 2014. The group had joined Al Qaeda in 2004, but it was disavowed by Al Qaeda in February 2014 after a long power struggle between the two groups. Throughout the Syrian Civil War ISIS had been seizing parts of Syria and imposing Sharia law on the people it controlled. However in the chaos of the Syrian Civil War, its actions went largely un-noted by the Western media. That was until June when ISIS invaded neighbouring Iraq.

On the 5^th of June ISIS forces stormed over the Syria-Iraq border, intent on taking all of Iraq. By the middle of the month they had taken vast swathes of north-western Iraq with relative ease, including Iraq’s second city, Mosul.  It was rather amazing (in a horrible way) to watch as ISIS took so much territory from Iraq without much fighting. This was despite the fact that the Iraqi army hugely outnumbered the ISIS fighters. When ISIS marched on Mosul, they had less than 1,000 men whilst the Iraqi army had an impressive 60,000! The Iraqi army basically ran away so fast that they left behind expensive military equipment, including tanks and anti-aircraft weapons. I am sure ISIS was very glad of getting hold of those weapons. The reason why this happened is because of the sectarian divisions of Iraq. The northern part of Iraq follows Sunni Islam, whilst the southern part is Shia Islam. To complicate matters even more there are the Kurds in north-eastern Iraq. Although they are mostly Sunnis, their different ethnicity makes them a separate group within Iraq. Since Nouri Al-Maliki came to power in 2006 he has tried to purge Sunnis from the government and the army. As a result, when ISIS invaded northern Iraq the army defending the Sunni territory was mostly Shia. Rather than risk their lives defending Sunni territory, the Shia soldiers simply fled. The rapid advance of ISIS was somewhat halted when the group began attacking more mixed areas, as the Shia dominated army began to actually defend the territory.

Despite ISIS’s success in taking control of much of northern Iraq, they were unable to take control of Kurdistan. The military of Iraqi Kurdistan, the Peshmerga, managed to hold their territory and even take some back from ISIS. Since June Iraqi Kurdistan has been de facto independent.

On the 29^th of June ISIS declared that it was now a worldwide Caliphate and that the group’s leader, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was its first Caliph. By doing this they are claiming complete authority over all Muslims throughout the world.

Control of Iraq and Syria at the end of 2014
Red: Assad regime
Purple-red: Iraqi government
Green: Syrian rebels
Grey: ISIS
Yellows: Syrian and Iraqi Kurds
Source: wikipedia.org

The barbarity of ISIS has been revealed over the past six months. They have brutally murdered anyone who will not convert to their extremist version of Sunni Islam. At one point they declared that the Yazidis, an ethnic and religious minority in northern Iraq, were “devil worshippers” and that they would be killed. After the Kurdish Peshmerga left the mostly Yazidi city of Sinjar, many Yazidis fled with them to Kurdistan. Unfortunately the journey to Peshmerga protected Kurdistan was several days walk away and many who would not make it fled up Mount Sinjar. As ISIS forces moved to surround the mountain there were fears of a genocide of the Yazidis who were now trapped. Thankfully a combination of strategic bombing of ISIS forces, air-dropped aid packages and the help of Peshmerga forces ensured that most Yazidis managed to escape.

With the realisation that ISIS poses a real threat to both regional and international security, 28 countries have intervened in some capacity to help combat ISIS’s rise.

As things stand going into 2015, ISIS’s advance has been halted, but now the effort to push back against the organisation has to step up. As bad as Iraq has been in recent years, ISIS control would be far worse. My hope for 2015 is that ISIS gets pushed back and that countries begin to recognise Kurdistan as an independent nation.

Red: Iraq and Syria
Dark Orange: Military intervention in Iraq and Syria
Light orange: Military intervention in Iraq only
Yellow: Military intervention in Syria only
Dark Blue: Humanitarian aid
Light Blue: Military aid (no intervention)

Civil War Returns to Iraq

Civil War has returned to Iraq as the sectarian and ethnic conflict between Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and the Kurds, takes a turn for the worse. The Jihadist organisation ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq andthe Levant)* has taken large portions of the north and west, including Iraq’s second city Mosul.

So far ISIL has encountered very little resistance from the Iraqi Army, when ISIL came to take the city of Mosul the Army fled so quickly that they left behind all of their equipment! This becomes even more shocking when you realise that the ISIL contingent had less than 1000 men andthe Iraqi Army had over 60,000! They ran away so fast that they left behind tanks and military jets! So why on earth did the Army run away when they outnumbered the enemy 60:1 and has massive technological superiority? The answer lies in the sectarian makeup of Iraq, and its institutions. The army, like the government, is mostly Shia, whilst Mosul is dominated by Sunni Muslims.

The soldiers had no interest in defending Mosul from a Sunni organisation like ISIL. They are not going to risk their lives ‘protecting’ people who at best, they don’t care about, or at worst they hate. That is why the fighting so far has produced fewer casualties than you might expect. The bloodbath will truly begin when ISIL attempts to take territory that is disputed or majority Shi’ite. This could come sooner than you think. ISIL is less than 50km from Baghdad and Baghdad is mostly Shi’ite. When the Battle for Baghdad starts you will not see the army fleeing, instead they will fight and thousands will die.

The ethnic/sectarian divisions of Iraq
source: The Economist

Another piece in this complex puzzle of Iraq are the Kurds. The Kurds are an ethnic group in the region that have been persecuted for a long time. Although they are Sunni, they are often thought of as being primarily Kurdish and secondarily Sunni. They form a majority in north eastern Iraq, and for the past several years have had some de facto independence. They have their own army, the Peshmarga, which has over 200,000 soldiers which is why ISIL has not tried to take Kurdish territory. In fact this has worked out well for the Kurds, so far, as the Iraqi Army flees the north, they have been able to capture more territory that was formerly in dispute, including the oil rich city of Kirkuk.

There is no easy solution to the chaos that has engulfed Iraq. What I currently favour is sending UN peacekeepers to Iraq to split the country into three new countries, Sunni Iraq, Shi’ite Iraq and Kurdistan. Obviously this is easier said than done, and will involve blood being spilt on all sides. I do believe that the partition of Iraq holds the best hope of achieving some form of peace and stability in the country.

*sometimes referred to as ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)

Afghan War to Continue

The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have always been very different wars. Immediately following 9/11 the US and UK (later joined by NATO and other allies) invaded Afghanistan to drive out the Al-Qaeda supporting Taliban. The war had strong international support, even amongst those countries who did not participate. Fast forward two years and the Iraq War is underway, but unlike Afghanistan it is much more contentious. The reason Britain and American want to go to war in Iraq is based on evidence that the country is trying to get weapons of mass destruction. That evidence was called into question by the international community which is unsure as to the authenticity of the evidence. Soon after the invasion, it is discovered that Iraq didn’t have any weapons of mass destruction and that most of the ‘evidence’ was simply false.

Needless to say the war based on a lie rapidly became unpopular and eventually all allied troops left Iraq by 2012. On the other hand Afghanistan is still ongoing and it looks like there will be a Western presence in Afghanistan for at least another decade. NBC News managed to get hold of a draft document of an agreement between the American and Afghan governments whereby troops would continue to reside inside the country until at least 2024! Although the war will officially end next year it will not be the end of a Western presence in Afghanistan.