Civil War Returns to Iraq

Civil War has returned to Iraq as the sectarian and ethnic conflict between Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, and the Kurds, takes a turn for the worse. The Jihadist organisation ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq andthe Levant)* has taken large portions of the north and west, including Iraq’s second city Mosul.

So far ISIL has encountered very little resistance from the Iraqi Army, when ISIL came to take the city of Mosul the Army fled so quickly that they left behind all of their equipment! This becomes even more shocking when you realise that the ISIL contingent had less than 1000 men andthe Iraqi Army had over 60,000! They ran away so fast that they left behind tanks and military jets! So why on earth did the Army run away when they outnumbered the enemy 60:1 and has massive technological superiority? The answer lies in the sectarian makeup of Iraq, and its institutions. The army, like the government, is mostly Shia, whilst Mosul is dominated by Sunni Muslims.

The soldiers had no interest in defending Mosul from a Sunni organisation like ISIL. They are not going to risk their lives ‘protecting’ people who at best, they don’t care about, or at worst they hate. That is why the fighting so far has produced fewer casualties than you might expect. The bloodbath will truly begin when ISIL attempts to take territory that is disputed or majority Shi’ite. This could come sooner than you think. ISIL is less than 50km from Baghdad and Baghdad is mostly Shi’ite. When the Battle for Baghdad starts you will not see the army fleeing, instead they will fight and thousands will die.

The ethnic/sectarian divisions of Iraq
source: The Economist

Another piece in this complex puzzle of Iraq are the Kurds. The Kurds are an ethnic group in the region that have been persecuted for a long time. Although they are Sunni, they are often thought of as being primarily Kurdish and secondarily Sunni. They form a majority in north eastern Iraq, and for the past several years have had some de facto independence. They have their own army, the Peshmarga, which has over 200,000 soldiers which is why ISIL has not tried to take Kurdish territory. In fact this has worked out well for the Kurds, so far, as the Iraqi Army flees the north, they have been able to capture more territory that was formerly in dispute, including the oil rich city of Kirkuk.

There is no easy solution to the chaos that has engulfed Iraq. What I currently favour is sending UN peacekeepers to Iraq to split the country into three new countries, Sunni Iraq, Shi’ite Iraq and Kurdistan. Obviously this is easier said than done, and will involve blood being spilt on all sides. I do believe that the partition of Iraq holds the best hope of achieving some form of peace and stability in the country.

*sometimes referred to as ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)