What the World Holds in 2014 - A Prediction

So that’s my review of 2013 over, obviously there were numerous stories that I missed. The horsemeat scandal that gripped Europe, elections in Japan and Germany, and the birth of Prince George. The biggest news story that I missed was documenting the progress within Iran. I was planning on writing more reviews, but revision for exams has cute into the amount of time I can afford to spend blogging. Perhaps when I finish exams I’ll do a few more reviews of 2013.

The point of this post is to predict what will happen to the world in 2014. The number in red is the amount of predictions I’ve made in the paragraph.

Pro-gay rights athletes will be arrested in Sochi during the Winter Olympics. Of the 100s of athletes attending, it seems unlikely that nobody will protest. Expect tensions to rise between the West and Russia. [1]

The European elections will be a mixed bag as the likes of France jump to the rights whilst Britain and several other countries jump to the left. I predict that Nick Griffin will lose his seat and Labour will have the largest MEP delegation from Britain. In France Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP will have the most MEPs, followed by Marine Le Pen’s National Front. This will leave President François Hollande’s Socialist Party in third place.  [5]

Scotland will vote to remain in the union, although the vote will be closer than most unionists would like [1]

Scotland will also legalise same-sex marriage, as will Luxembourg and the Faroe Islands. Michigan and Virginia, by court ruling, will legalise same-sex marriage through the courts, whilst Ohio and Oregon will legalise it through ballot initiatives. The Supreme Court will reject Utah’s appeal, keeping same-sex marriage legal in that state. [8]

The November elections in the US will be mixed. Republicans will make a net gain in the Senate but will fall short of enough to take control. Little will change in the House of Representatives. Democrats will make a net gain in the governorship. [4] I’ll do a more in depth post about this later this month or in early February.

The bloodshed in Syria will continue, and by the end of 2014 nothing much will have changed unfortunately. There will be no Western military intervention in Syrian affairs. [2]

Obamacare will become more popular as its positive effects are felt. By the end of the year it will have a positive approval rating [1]

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts will continue to gain popularity within the Democratic Party. She will eat away at Hilary Clinton’s lead in 2016 polls. New York City Mayor, Bill deBlasio, will gain national attention, also resulting in him being touted for a 2016 Presidential run. [2]

If I were to guess one person who is likely to die in 2014, I would chose President George H.W. Bush. We already know that he is in poor health and turns 90 this June. People who could also die this year include the Duke of Edinburgh, after all he turns 93 this June and had a number of health scares in 2013. Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej has had numerous health scares over the past decade and hence is also on the list of likely deaths. He turns 87 in June (I swear I have nothing against people born in June). Aging stars Bruce Forsyth (turns 86 later this month) and Betty White (turns 92 next month) could also die in 2014 without much surprise.

Excluding deaths, I have made a total of 23 predictions for 2014. I guess we will have to wait until 2015 to see how accurate they were!

Australian Federal Elections

It was a rocky year for Australian politics with three Prime Ministers serving over the course of the year.

As the year dawned, Julia Gillard was beginning her third year as PM of Australia. Unfortunately for Gillard her popularity was rapidly declining, along with that of her Labor Party. It also didn’t help that there was massive frustration with her leadership within the party. After surviving one leadership contest in March of this year she was faced with another contest just three months later. In this vote she was defeated by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Incidentally Gillard became PM by defeating Rudd in a leadership contest back in 2010.

The main opposition to the Labor Party is the Coalition. Currently there are four parties in the coalition; the Liberal, Liberal National, National, and Country Liberal parties. By far the largest of the four parties is the Liberal Party, which is led by Tony Abbott. What may confuse a lot of non-Australians is that the coalition is not centre-left! You would be forgiven for thinking it would be as three of the parties have the word liberal in their name. So why are liberal parties in Australia not actually liberal? Well that’s because they aren’t talking about modern liberalism, but rather classical liberalism. Classical liberalism dates back to the 19^th Century and refers to people who believe in government non-interference in markets.

So heading into the September elections you have the left wing Labor Party and the right wing Coalition squaring off. You also have several smaller parties such as the Greens.

The results of the election turned out to be a defeat for the Labor Party, but not exactly devastating. It wasn’t like Britain 1997 or America 2008 when the ruling party got trounced. The swing was only a measly 3.69% and already polls are showing that Labor has more support than the Coalition. That would suggest to me that Australians are fed up with establishment politicians. Australia wants a fresh faced populist, regardless of which side of the political spectrum they are from.

Although Tony Abbott will form a new government and has a majority of 14 in the House of Representatives, he will need the help of at least six opposition Senators to get legislation through the Senate.

Results:

House of Representatives (150 up for election, 76 for a majority)
Party	Seats	Change from 2010	Percentage won	Swing
Liberal Party	58	+14	32%	+1.56%
Liberal National	22	+1	8.92%	-0.2%
National Party	9	+2	4.29%	+0.56%
Country Liberal	1	0	0.32%	+0.01%
Labor Party	55	-17	33.38%	-4.61%
Greens	1		8.65%	-3.11%
Others

Senate (40 of 76 up for election, 39 for a majority)
Party	Seats	Change from 2010	Percentage won	swing
Coalition	33	-1	37.7%	-0.59%
Labor	25	-6	30.11%	-5.02%
Greens	10	+1	8.65%	-4.46%
Others	8	+6

The new Prime Minister of Australia
source: heraldsun.com.au

Crazy Italian Politics!

Italian politics has been racked with scandal forever. It is one of the most corrupt Western governments which is never too far from a scandal. To make matters worse Silvio Berlusconi has been at the forefront of Italian politics for over two decades. Berlusconi has never been far from a scandal, especially when it comes to sex. Despite being over 70, Berlusconi has been accused of many sex crimes throughout his career including having sex with underage prostitutes at his infamous ‘bunga bunga’ parties. The idea that a politician accused of statutory rape being able to maintain a political career is unfathomable to most of us. Yet in Italy he weathered every scandal, every time you thought he was down and out he just came right back. It is quite impressive if you think about it, but it reflects badly on Italy.

Finally in August of this year he was convicted of tax fraud and sentenced to four years in prison. He won’t serve any of the sentence as he is over 70, but he was thrown out of the Senate later that month. Despite this he still is the leader of Forza Italia! It just shows you how crazy Italian politics can be.

In the midst of all this there was also an election to deal with. Held in February as a result of Prime Minister Mario Monti’s resignation, it resulted in a hung parliament. Here are a table of results:

Chamber of Deputies (316 required for a majority)
Leader	Party/Coalition	% of the vote	Number of seats
Pier Luigi Bersani	Common good Coalition	29.54	340
Silvio Berlusconi	Centre Right Coalition	29.18	124
Beppe Grillo	Five Star Movement	25.55	108
Mario Monti	With Monti For Italy (Coalition)	10.56%	45
N/A	Others	5.17%	13

Senate of the Republic (160 required for a majority)
Leader	Party/Coalition	% of the vote	Number of seats
Pier Luigi Bersani	Common good Coalition	31.63%	113
Silvio Berlusconi	Centre Right Coalition	30.71%	116
Beppe Grillo	Five Star Movement	23.79%	54
Mario Monti	With Monti For Italy (Coalition)	9.13%	18
N/A	Others	4.74%	14

This election is amazing for two reasons: the continued success of Berlusconi, who led the right-wing coalition ‘The People of Freedom’ and the success of Beppe Grillo and his ‘Five Star Movement’. Many in the establishment were shocked, and scared, by Grillo’s success due to bad policies such as degrowth. Yet the Five Star Movement has resonated with many Italians who agree with its views on politicians. Corruption in Italy is rampant and FSM is determined to stamp it out. They want to limit politicians’ pay and perks at a level a lot lower than it is now. They also demand term limits for politicians and an end to politicians having two jobs at the same time. This kind of rhetoric is a breath of fresh air for many Italians.

The Destructive Force of Mother Nature

The horrors of Mother Nature were very clear this year as many places were blasted by the weather.

The US was hit with a number of destructive storms. Oklahoma was hit on the 31^st of May by a massive tornado. Named the Moore Tornado after the small city it had obliterated. The storm unfortunately claimed 24 lives. What made the Moore Tornado so horrifying was its sheer size, at a width of 4.2km (2.6 miles) it is the widest tornado ever recorded.

Source: Guardian

Unfortunately for America the Moore, Oklahoma tornado wasn’t the only natural disaster to hit the country. California was hit by particularly bad wildfires this year, several people died as a result. Yet it was Australia that received the most damage thanks to wildfires. Unseasonably high temperatures resulted in much of Australia being consumed by fire in October. Although fires raged only 70km west of Sydney, the highly populated city was spared any damage. The Australian wildfires did produce this photo of a family sheltering under a jetty. The image went viral as soon as it was released to the press.

India was hit unfortunately, by the largest Cyclone in over a decade. Cyclone Pailan struck India in October 2013 and affected the lives of over 13 million people. Considering how populated the area is, it is lucky that ‘only’ 45 people died.

The biggest loser in 2013 was the Philippines. On the 15^th of October (what is it with October?) an earthquake struck the middle of the Philippines and resulted in 222 people being reported dead. To make matters worse, the most destructive Typhoon in the history of the Philippines made landfall. It had one-minute sustained winds at 315km/h (196mph), which would make it the strongest typhoon ever recorded. With that in mind it is easy to see how it could claim the lives of 6,155 and cost $1.5 billion in damage.

The destructive force of Typhoon Haiyan
source: BBC

Now let’s talk about global warming. The planet is getting warmer and storms are becoming more destructive. Humans are the primary cause of it. This is not my opinion. I am not a global warming scientist and I am by no means an expert. So I defer to the scientific community to evaluate the situation. 99.9% of scientists who have studied the facts have come to the conclusion that there is man-made climate change.

Yet despite the scientific community’s so certain that global warming is real, the world has been slow to react. In the short run making your country greener is very expensive. Countries that are in the process of industrialising think that it is hypocritical of already industrialised countries to ask them to stop polluting. Especially after the industrialised countries have been doing it for up to 250 years!

We need to tackle global warming now. 2013 did not go well, let’s make 2014 the greenest year ever! 

Gay Rights - The Bad News

Unfortunately the news surrounding gay rights has not been entirely rosy. The West did appear to move forward together, the same cannot be said of other countries. The biggest anti-gay news came out of Russia and India which seriously disappointed gay rights activists. Africa and the Middle East continued their terrible reputation with gay rights.

Gay Rights – Russia

When the Soviet Union finally collapsed in 1991 the new Russia seemed eager to show its progressive side on social issues. In 1993 gay sex was legalised, four years later transgender people could legally change their gender and in 1999 homosexuality was declassified as a mental illness. Then came Vladimir Putin, he rose to Prime Minister in 1999 and after only a few months became President following Boris Yeltsin’s resignation. Originally he did nothing to gay rights, but as the years progressed he began to ally himself with the homophobic Russian Orthodox Church. To help cement the support of the religious right, he (and his United Russia party) began hacking away at gay rights. Although homosexuality is still legal in Russia, a law was passed last year that made ‘homosexual propaganda’ illegal.

The law itself is truly terrible and stops any sort of gay pride event or meeting in which homosexuality is discussed positively. In Russia if you break the law as an ordinary citizen you are fined 5,000 Russian roubles (£93/$153/€110). For public officials the fine is 50,000 roubles (£932/$1,525/€1,102), the maximum fine for organisations is 1 million roubles (£18,631/$30,500/€22,037) and they must halt activity for up to 90 days. If you try and ‘promote homosexuality’ over the internet you can get fined 100,000 roubles (£1,863/$3,050/€2,204)! If you are a foreigner you can expect to get detained for 15 days before being deported, after paying your 100,000 rouble fine of course.

The disgraceful treatment of gays has resulted in people calling for a boycott of the Winter Olympics, which are to be held in Sochi, Russia later this year. Particularly vocal have been George Takei, an American actor, and Stephen Fry, a veteran British broadcaster. Both are openly gay and have drawn on their substantial fan base to call for a boycott of the games. In Fry’s letter to Prime Minister David Cameron he compared Putin’s treatment of gays to Hitler’s treatment of Jews in 1936, when the Olympic Games were held in Berlin. It is worth noting that Fry is of Jewish descent and had relatives die in the Holocaust.

 

Russian gay rights supporters being beaten by police
source: the Guardian

Gay Rights Elsewhere

India was the only other country to produce major anti-gay news. In 2009 the Delhi High Court ruled that Section 377 was unconstitutional and that all prohibitions on consenting sexual activities between adults that did not involve a commercial transaction were also unconstitutional. Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code was passed in 1860 by the ruling British government. Unfortunately the Supreme Court of India decided in December that the colonial era law was actually constitutional. This meant that gay sex was once again illegal in India.

It is a bit ironic when you think about it: When this law was passed in 1860, Britain was highly homophobic whereas India was not. Fast forward 160 years and you find a homophobic India and Britain leading the pro-gay rights charge!

Uganda has been at the centre of attention for several years now in relation to gay rights. Homosexuality is already illegal in Uganda, being found guilty of it could result in up to seven years of imprisonment. Yet for some that is not enough! In 2009 MP David Bahati introduced a bill that would call for the death penalty for people who had gay sex on multiple occasions. It was dubbed the ‘kill the gays bill’ and got immediate international attention, which resulted in it failing. Then last year the Speaker of Parliament, Rebecca Kadaga, introduced a new bill that was not quite as harsh as the original bill, but still demanded the death penalty for ‘aggravated’ homosexuality. That bill passed Parliament last month and new awaits President Yoweri Museveni’s signature.

More minor bad news for gay rights came out of Croatia, Zimbabwe and Australia. In Zimbabwe a referendum was held at the same time as other elections that banned same-sex marriage constitutionally. Considering Zimbabwe was never going to legalise same-sex marriage, this has little affect. Similarly Croatia had a referendum in which marriage was defined as being between one man and one woman. The result was 66% against marriage equality. It wasn’t entirely bad news though as the government immediately announced that it would try and pass a civil union bill this year. In Australia the Australian Capital Territory (Canberra) became the first Australian jurisdiction to legalise same-sex marriage! Hurray! Not so fast, unfortunately the federal government challenged the constitutionality of the same-sex marriage law, the court unfortunately ruled in the government’s favour. This means that gay marriage will not be becoming legal any time soon in Australia.  

The Rainbow Wave

It has been an extraordinary year for gay rights, particularly when it comes to gay marriage. Unfortunately there have been set backs, most notably in Russia, which I will come to later. Earlier last year I made a prediction that the total population of countries and jurisdictions that have passed same-sex marriage before 2013 would be less than the population of those who passed it in 2013 and 2014. My prediction was true, just a bit conservative. Before 2013 363,310 people lived in places that had legal same-sex marriage, whereas last year places with an additional 37,806,000 people being added in 2013 alone!

Marriage Rights

The first gay couple to get married in France (Montpellier)
source: standard.co.uk

The expanding of marriage rights took place across four continents and seven different countries. Brazil, France, New Zealand and Uruguay legalised it nationwide, taking the total to 15 countries. The UK government also legalised same-sex marriage but it only applies to England and Wales as both Scotland and Northern Ireland have the power to define marriage devolved to them. Scotland is making good progress when it comes to same-sex marriage, a bill that would legalise it has passed the first reading in the Scottish Parliament and awaits another vote. In Northern Ireland there are no plans to extend marriage rights at the moment.

Same-sex marriage seemed unable to stay out of American news this entire year, every few weeks there was something new to celebrate, or be sad about. In total nine states started to issue same-sex marriage licences. Five legalised it through their legislatures (Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Minnesota and Rhode Island) whilst the other four legalised it as a result of court rulings (California, New Jersey, New Mexico and Utah). There are many other court cases pending across the country. In addition, six tribal jurisdictions began allowing same-sex marriage. They were the Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians, Pokagon Band of Potawatomi Indians, Santa Ysabel Tribe, the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation, Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes, and the Leek Lake Band of Ojibwe. In 2013 Colorado started offering civil unions to same-sex couples and Oregon began recognising same-sex marriages performed out of state.  

USA Supreme Court Rulings on Same-Sex Marriage

The biggest boost for gay rights campaigners in the US came in June last year when the Supreme Court sided with them in two landmark cases. The court finally put to rest the fight over same-sex marriage in California that has been going on for a decade. Under Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger the Democratic controlled legislature passed same-sex marriage, which he vetoed. A challenge was brought to the constitutionality of California’s same-sex marriage ban which resulted in the Supreme Court of California ruling that the ban was unconstitutional. This was rapidly overturned by Proposition 8, which defined marriage as between one man and one woman and received the backing of 52% of the public vote in the 2008 referendum. A suit was then filed in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, challenging the constitutionality of Proposition 8. Judge Vaughn Walker ruled that Proposition 8 did run contrary to the US constitution and hence would have to go. As the state of California refused to defend the law, it was the original organisers of Proposition 8 which then appealed the ruling in court.  The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals agreed to take up an appeal, when the court ruled in February 2012, it ruled in favour of the gay rights side. So the Proposition 8 proponents had no choice but to go to the US Supreme Court or abandon altogether, naturally they appealed.

The ruling later came on the 26^th of June and the results were rather surprising. The court did not rule based on whether or not Proposition 8 was constitutional, but rather whether its opponents had a right to defend it in federal court. In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court decided that Proposition 8 opponents were not able to appeal and so the original district court ruling stayed. What is more surprising is how each justice ruled. It is widely recognised that the court is split along political lines. There are four liberal justices; Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. Opposing them are conservative justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, John Roberts and Samuel Alito. Finally there is the swing justice who is viewed as a moderate, Anthony Kennedy. You would be forgiven for thinking that it was the four liberal justices plus Kennedy that enabled same-sex marriage to return to California, but you would be wrong. Instead it was Roberts, Ginsburg, Kagan, Breyer and Scalia that ruled against the Proposition 8 proponents. Kennedy, Sotomayor, Alito and Thomas dissented. Scalia is the most shocking vote as not only is he one of the most conservative justices on the court, he is one of the most conservative men in the country.

The other major case heard by the Supreme Court on gay rights in 2013 concerned the federal Defense of Marriage Act (aka DOMA). The Act was passed in 1996 by a strong bipartisan majority and signed into law by President Bill Clinton. The law basically barred federal recognition for same-sex couples. Section 3 stated that the federal government could not provide benefits to same-sex couples, even in states that had legal same-sex marriage. In 1996 this was of little consequence as no state allowed same-sex marriage, and it wouldn’t matter for another eight years until Massachusetts became the first US state to legalise same-sex marriage in 2004. In 2010 several plaintiffs filed in New York calling Section 3 unconstitutional. The case was called United States v. Windsor and dealt primarily with the case of Edith Windsor who had been taxed on the inheritance she received from her spouse, Thea Spyer. If the federal government had recognised her marriage then she would have been exempt from the tax. By the time the Supreme Court agreed to take the case, eight other states and DC had already legalised same-sex marriage and several more were planning on legalising it in the coming months. The Supreme Court decided in a 5-4 decision that Section 3 was indeed unconstitutional as it violated states’ rights and individual rights. The way the justices ruled was entirely as expected; the four conservative justices opposed gay rights and the four liberal justices (joined by Kennedy) backed gay rights.

Other positive moves on gay rights

One fundamental part of the family life is children, so naturally being allowed to adopt is important to gay people who want a family. There are two types of adoption here; joint adoption and step-child adoption. Joint adoption is when both partners adopt a child that is not the biological child of either of them. Step-child adoption is when one partner is the biological parent of one and the other partner adopts the child as their own. In 2013 France and New Zealand both began allowing joint adoption as a result of legalising same-sex marriage. In Northern Ireland and Gibraltar courts ruled that their respective jurisdictions had to allow joint adoption. Tasmania also legalised joint adoption. In 2013 step-child adoption was legalised in Austria and Germany.

Despite plenty of good news for gay rights in the West, less good news came from other areas of the world. I will be addressing that in the next post. 

The Passing of a Hero

On the 5^th of December 2013 the world lost a truly great man. For generations the indigenous black population of South Africa had been persecuted by the minority white population. In 1948, just three years after WWII ended, a war in which South Africa fought against countries that treated certain people as second-class citizens, the new government began to institute a system of racial segregation called Apartheid. Apartheid was a system in which races were separated in every aspect of life; from education to public parks and from transport to housing. Four different categories were created; white, black, coloured and Indian (the latter two had other subcategories). BY 1970 only whites were allowed to vote and other races were deprived of their citizenship! The treatment of the majority black population resulted in the increasing ostracising of South Africa by the rest of the world, particularly following the civil rights movements of the 1960s and 1970s.

Yet it was the case of Nelson Mandela that would inspire South Africa and the world to try and end Apartheid. Mandela was born in the small village of Mvezo, Eastern Cape in 1918. As Mandela grew up he became in anti-colonial politics and later the anti-Apartheid movement. Before the 1960s Mandela was opposed to suing violence to end the horrific system of Apartheid. Mandela finally turned to more violent tactics after several serious massacres by the Apartheid government and the lack of progress that had been made trying peaceful methods. After only a year of violent activity in which civilians of any race were deliberately not targeted, Mandela was arrested in August 1962. When Mandela was put on trial he gave a three hour speech in his defence, which is regarded as one of the greatest speeches ever made. Mandela’s imprisonment sparked uproar across the globe.

The longer Mandela stayed in prison, the more support he got from around the world. By the time Mandela was released from prison in 1990 he had spent 27 years behind bars. Mandela was passionate about making sure that blacks would have equal rights. In 1985 the President of South Africa, P.W. Botha, offered Mandela a deal: Botha would release Mandela from prison if he renounced his ways. Mandela rejected the offer. As the years progressed even the white population began to be opposed to Apartheid. After F.W. de Klerk rose to become President in September 1989, everything began to change. In his first speech as leader of the nation, de Klerk demanded an end to Apartheid through negotiations and went on to free Mandela the following year. To show how ready South Africa was for an end to Apartheid, in 1992 a referendum was held as to whether to continue negotiations between the government and the African National Congress (ANC). The referendum was overwhelmingly successful for the anti-Apartheid side, in the white only election 67% of voters wished the negotiations to continue whilst 31% demanded that they stop.

Eventually a new constitution was finalised and elections were held in 1994. The elections became the first in the history of South Africa in which everyone could vote. The result was a landslide, Nelson Mandela and the ANC won 252 of the 400 seats and 62.65% of the vote. F. W. de Klerk’s National Party won only 20.39% of the vote and 82 seats. 43 seats and 10.54% of the vote went to Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s Inkatha Freedom Party. The new Parliament rapidly elected Mandela as President, the first black man to hold the position. Since then the ANC has remained in power and the National Party was dissolved in 1997.

Despite Mandela retiring in 1999 he has remained a powerful figure in South African, and world, politics. He denounced America and Britain’s invasion of Iraq as a War for oil. He was also an ardent opponent of inequality and HIV/aids.

The world will forever mourn the loss of Mandela. His courage, despite adversity, his willingness to forgive despite brutal treatment, and his love of all people will forever have humans looking up to him. Mandela will always be one of the greatest human beings to walk this earth.

Nelson Mandela
source: Forbes

The Bloodshed in Syria Continues

The Civil War in Syria has been raging for almost three years and doesn’t look like it is ending anytime soon. So far an estimated 165,000 people have been killed in the bloodshed that has created 3,000,000 refugees.

Fighting continues across the country between the rebels and the government for control of land. As the horrors of the war become more and more vivid, and especially after President Bashar Al-Assad used chemical weapons, the West began to prepare for war. Going to war because of suspected chemical weapons? For many in the West this brought back horrible memories of the Iraq War, an invasion that was built on the lie that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). In September a poll showed 72% of Europeans and 62% of Americans opposed military intervention. Nonetheless, the march to war has begun and surely nothing could stop it!

Wrong! It turned out that war was not inevitable! In Britain war was surprisingly stopped by Parliament of all places. What was meant to be a largely symbolic vote in favour of intervention if Syria turned out did use chemical weapons, turned into one of the biggest news stories of the year. The vote failed 285-272, the first time Parliament had voted against any sort of Act of War in centuries. This did major damage to Britain’s prestige and to the war movement. Despite this setback, America and France continued to gear up for war. What really rocked the military, and averted Western intervention, was thanks to American Secretary of State John Kerry. It was also a complete accident on Kerry’s behalf.

In a news conference, Kerry was asked by Margaret Brennan of CBS News if there was anything the Syrian government could do to prevent an American bombing. Kerry said that the only way for Syria to prevent intervention would be for it to give up its chemical weapons immediately. Kerry immediately derided it as impossible and moved on to the next question. Well that off-hand comment ended up being the most important in all of 2013 (well at least the most important one that’s publically known). Almost as soon as that clip was aired around the world, the Syrians and Russians pounced on it.

Seeing it as the only opportunity to prevent a Western intervention, Syria promised that it would allow United Nations weapons inspectors into the country. Syria would then hand over all chemical weapons to be safely destroyed! By September an agreement was reached that would result in the elimination of all Syria’s chemical weapons by mid-2014. In October the UN declared that all of Syria’s facilities that could create chemical weapons had been destroyed.

Despite the success with chemical weapons, Syria is far from resolved. Removing chemical weapons does nothing to reduce the death and destruction occurring in the Middle Eastern country. Unfortunately there seems to be very little chance of the Civil War easing up at all this year. I am making the rather horribly prediction that the Syrian war will continue as bloody as ever. By the end of the year at least 200,000 people will be dead.

Egyptian Revolution: Round II

In the Arab Spring of 2011, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak was forced to resign following mass protests and the desertion of his army. Following democratic elections in 2011/2012 Islamist Mohamed Morsi became the first democratically elected President of Egypt. Naturally the election of an Islamist angered and scared secularists and Christians in Egypt, who feared that society might end up looking like Iran.

After Morsi was elected, he began to take more and more powers for himself. He arrested more people for the ‘crime’ of insulting the President than Mubarak had done in his entire run as President! He also gave immunity to those working on drafting the new constitution, who were only Islamists by this stage.

Protests against the leadership and actions of President Morsi began in late 2012 after Morsi’s government effectively gave the President unlimited power. This may have seemed like a good idea to the Islamists, but considering that Egyptians had proven themselves adept at revolutions, it was actually a monumentally stupid one! The protesters simply would not go away. Protests intensified in late June 2013 as the one year anniversary of Morsi’s inauguration approached. Eventually the army intervened and deposed President Morsi on the 3^rd of July 2013. The Army’s leader, General al-Sisi announced that Adly Mansour, Chief Justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court would become interim President.

Despite Morsi’s unpopularity with many Egyptians, particularly secularists, liberals and Christians, he still had many supporters. As well as being President, Morsi was leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organisation that has been banned in Egypt for most of its existence. After Morsi was deposed several other leaders were arrested and the Muslim Brotherhood was made illegal once again in September. Naturally the Muslim Brotherhood protested against their treatment, but they experienced a bloody crackdown. Despite the bloodshed, they are still protesting.

Egypt has had a tumultuous few years since the 2011 Revolution, and it certainly won’t become a stable democracy overnight. The future is unclear, it will be difficult, but if good Egyptians work hard, they can prevent Egypt from stumbling back into dictatorship.

Protesters in Tahrir Square, Cairo in 2013
source: freethoughtblogs.com

The Year of the Spy

When the National Security Agency (NSA) hired Edward Snowden, little did they know that they had made the worst decision of their lives. After discovering just how much the US government spies on its own people, last year Edward Snowden decided to leak that information.

Snowden handed over a colossal amount of information to Glenn Greenwald, a journalist who worked at the Guardian Newspaper. Despite the huge amount of data already leaked, according to the Guardian, by November last year they had published only 1% of the Snowden files!

The powerpoint slide used to explain PRISM
source: Guardian

So what was actually released? A program called MAINWAY in which the US government recorded and stored metadata on people’s phone calls. Metadata (in this case) means that the actual content of the phone calls was not recorded but rather who called who, for how long and where they were located. Yet the biggest headlines were made in relation to the internet. PRISM is the program whereby all data held by nine popular tech companies (most of which are primarily websites) is recorded. Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, Facebook, PalTalk, Skype, AOL and Apple all participate in this program. When I say ‘all data’ I literally mean ALL data; drafted emails that are never sent, the audio and video of your Skype conversations, even what you type but never send. All of those are recorded! Tempora is the other major internet based program revealed by Snowden. This one is carried out by Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), the British equivalent of the NSA. Tempora gives GCHQ the ability to easily hack into the internet. It is whereby GCHQ has access to the fibre optic cables that make the internet possible.

If this was not bad enough, Snowden has revealed that America not only spies on ordinary citizens but on allied leaders. It was revealed that the USA had spied on over 35 world leaders. The most prominent was German Chancellor Angela Merkel who later compared NSA spying to the Stasi (the Nazi secret police).

These revelations have truly shocked and horrified the world. The fact that the Guardian, Greenwald and Snowden all say that the worst has yet to come is scary to say the least. I can only assume that the revelations have nothing to do with spying as I honestly cannot think of anything that would be worse than has already been revealed. So what has the US and its allies done that could possibly be worse? My mind is running through all the conspiracies I have dismissed as crazy in the past and wondering which of them (if any) are actually true. If you had told me a year ago that the US government records basically all the information on the internet, I likely would have told you to stop watching Alex Jones and take off the tinfoil hat.

So does the US government assassinate non-terrorists? Did they cause Chavez’s cancer? Was 9/11 an inside job? Is there really a New World Order? Are all world leaders actually green lizards? OK so the last three, and especially the last two, are undoubtedly not true. If they turn out to be true I will literally eat my hat. The former two are not so ridiculous though. After all, when the CIA started out it couldn’t stop assassinating people! It was only when John F. Kennedy became President that it was stopped (cue another conspiracy).

Whatever 2014 holds, spying and Snowden will be on the menu. 

Edward Snowden in an interview with the Guardian

Review of 2013

What a year! I really cannot believe that it is already 2014, it feels like yesterday that I was counting down to midnight and singing Auld Lang Syne! With the end of 2013 it comes time for me to review the most important news stories of the year. Although not as monumental as 2011, when revolution and protest spread throughout the whole planet, 2013 will still have a lasting impact.

The biggest news story of the year undoubtedly was thanks to a previously unknown young American, Edward Snowden. The release of classified information shocked the world. He was simultaneously called a traitor and the greatest American since Martin Luther King. Other massive 2013 news stories came out of the Middle East with a coup/revolution in Egypt, chemical weapons in Syria and progress with Iran. Gay rights made headlines across the globe with progress being made in the likes of Britain, France and America. Whilst bad news came from India, Russia and Uganda.

The weather seemed to never be far from TV sets. Tornadoes tore through Oklahoma, wildfires devastated Colorado and Australia, and floods ferociously destroyed… well everywhere! The worst weather story was Typhoon Haiyan that bore down on the Philippines and killed over 6,000 people.

I will be posting my 2013 reviews every 12 hours for the next several days. As I post them I’ll edit this post to include links to my various articles. Enjoy!

1. The Year of the Spy
2. Egyptian Revolution: Round II
3. The Bloodshed in Syria Continues
4. The Passing of a Hero
5. A Troubled Northern Ireland
6. The Rainbow Wave
7. Gay Rights - The Bad News
8. The Destructive Force of Mother Nature