Old World Order - Japan

Population: 127 million
Area: 378,000km2
GDP: $5.9 trillion
GDP (per capita): $35,000

Japan is unique in the countries that I am reviewing; it is the only Asian country and the only one never to have beenm controlled by Europeans. Japan has a very large economy, behind only the USA and China. This, seemingly successful, economy is in part thanks to US investment following WWII out of fears that Japan might fall to the Communists. The truth is that although the Japenese economy is large, it is also stagnant and has been since the early 1990s. Japan is also facing problems in the future; the rise of China, fear of North Korea, and an ageing and shrinking population.

The rise of China is a serious threat to Japan, it already has a larger economy and higher military expenditure. China also has the world's largest standing army. China and Japan are currently arguing over the rights to fish in the waters between the two nations. A stronger China would find it easier to bully Japan. Thankfully the Japanese have the Americans backing them.

Another issue I mentioned was fear of North Korea. This may never amount to anything, but could prove disastrous for Japan if things do fo wrong. Nobody id quite sure what nuclear capability North Korea has, but we can be pretty certain that within the next decade (if not already) that it will have nuclear weapons that can reach anywhere in Japan. This is really worrying as tensions between the two Koreas is at a high and rising. If the regime in Pyongyang were to send nuclear missiles to Japan, the result would be devastating.

The North Korean problem may never come to fruition, but one problem Japan is already facing is an aging and declining population. The fertility rate in Japan is very low, which means the working population is shrinking whilst the dependent population is increasing. Fewer people working means lower government revenue, whilst more retired people means higher government expenditire through pensions and healthcare. This is a recipe for disaster as Japan's debt to GDP ratio, at 214% of GDP, is the highest in the world, even higher than Greece and Zimbabwe! Japan's stagnant economy is not helped by its declining population, currently Japan is the 10th largest country in the world with 127 million people. By 2050 this is expected to decline to 107 million people, making it the 17th largest.

Low growth has been the standard for the Japanese economy over the past two decades. Japan has never really recovered from a crash in the early 1990s. If a government were to actually pull Japan out of the doldrums then it would be a miracle.

So Japan faces three main problems; challenges from Asian neighbours, poor economic performance and a declining population.

Change is Coming to Afghanistan

Afghanistan is changing, and hopefully for the better. Yesterday two rather important events happened, the ceremonial hanging over of the control of Afghanistan's security from NATO to Afghan forces and the revelation that the US will have direct talks with the Taliban. I am delighted with this news, I feel that it's only negotiations that will bring about peace. If the British government had never negotiated with the IRA, where would Northern Ireland be? It may not seem right to negotiate with terrorists but it saves lives. You also have to remember that this is a big step for the Taliban too, they hate us as much as we hate them. Unfortunately the Afghan government is not too happy as they have not been invited to the talks. Understandably angry the Afghan government has halted current security negotiations with America. Nonetheless, control of Afghan security has already been handed over from NATO.

The statements made by both sides gave me some hope, the White House said that the talks are the "first step on a long road to peace." In a press conference, Mohammad Sohail Shaheen, a Taliban spokesperson said the following:

"We must have good relations with all countries of the world."

I fear that talks may not work but we must hope that they will. If Afghanistan can move forward then there's hope for every troubled spot in the world.

Syria Talks Stall at G8

It's looking increasingly unlikely that the world is ever going to agree on what to do about Syria. In a joint press conference with Obama, Russian president Putin warned that Europe will suffer if they arm the rebels. There was one agreement though, both men agreed that chemical weapons should not be used. Which really isn't that big a leap, and as shown recently, Russia will simply reject any Western intelligence indicating the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime.

This will have disappointed Cameron and Hollande who have been pressing the international community, particularly Russia and China, to do something constructive in Syria. Earlier today Cameron said the following:

"What we do need to do is bring about this peace conference and this transition so that the people in Syria can have a government that represents them rather than a government that's trying to butcher them."

There is a lot to worry about with intervention in Syria, frequently things are made worse by intervention. If we arm the rebels we risk what happened in Afghanistan, when American armed the Taliban to fight the Soviets, repeating itself in Syria. Boris Johnson has warned against arming "Syria's maniacs and fanatics". Personally I'm also wary of arming the rebels, what I favour is implementing a no-fly-zone. That way we help the rebels, but we don't give them anything that they could later turn on us.

I do fear what will happen in Syria regardless of what we do, 93,000 people have died since the uprising began. How many more must die before this brutal civil war will end? 

EU Removes Burma Sanctions

The European Union has decided to lift most sanctions previously placed on Myanmar/Burma. The decision has been described as premature by some but the move is supported by democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. The decision was made in the backdrop of increasing sectarian tensions and violence, particularly in the west of Burma. In western Burma the minority Muslim community has been attacked which has resulted in the deaths of hundreds and displacement of over 125,000! The violence began last summer and has started to escalate out of control. A recent Human Rights Watch report accused the Burmese government of ethnic cleansing due to its inability to help the Muslims. It may come as a surprise to you that it is Buddhists who are leading the violence! In the West people tend to portray Buddhists as good people who never partake in violence. It would appear that all religions have violent elements to them.

Currently Burma is slowly moving from military dictatorship to a democracy. In 2012 Aung San Suu Kyi's party, National League for Democracy, made significant gains in by-elections held in summer. Yet the government still retains an iron fist on power. Together the military and the government party (Union Solidarity and Development Party) control 322 of the 440 seats in the lower house, called the Pyithu Hluttaw. In the upper house, called the Amyotha Hluttaw the government has 185 of the 224 seats. With a presidential election in 2015, Burma may be in for rapid change. Let's hope that they can handle it!

Violence has spread throughout the country.
source: www.bbc.co.uk

North Korea Vs. Iran

In the past couple of years we have heard a lot about the nuclear programmes in North Korea and Iran, yet the public in the West only seems to take Iran seriously. Here are some similarities and differences between the two countries.

Both countries have issued serious threats to nearby countries. Iran has threatened to wipe Israel off the map, North Korea has threatened to turn South Korea into a "sea of fire".

Both nations have active nuclear programmes.

Both are dictatorships.

Both countries suppress free speech.

Both countries are currently under sanctions from the UN.

Both countries frequently threaten the West.

Only one has tested nuclear weapons - North Korea

Only one has nuclear weapons - North Korea

Only one has 'declared' war on its sworn enemy - North Korea

As you can see both countries are very similar in how they approach the world, yet only one of them is taken seriously by the Western Public. Despite the fact that we take North Korea less seriously, it has the more advanced nuclear programme! So why do we take Iran more seriously than North Korea? I will try and help you out.

One of the primary reasons is the culture of islamophobia in the West, particularly in the United States. The failed states, such as Afghanistan, have been breeding terrorists for decades that attacked Westerners living in the area. After Al Qaeda turned global in 2001, the fear the West had for Muslims went sky high causing many people to fear Muslims. The fact that Iran is a Muslim country fuels peoples' fears and means we take Iran more seriously. There is also the more rational fear that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, and the weapons fall into the hands of Al Qaeda, then the risk to the West would be massive.

Iran and North Korea both know that if they attack the USA, or its allies, with nuclear weapons, then the USA will retaliate with nuclear weapons, annihilating their countries. This is another reason why people are more fearful of a nuclear Iran; Iran is fun by Muslim fundamentalists and the fear is that they might decide that annihilation is worth it for 'Jihad'. On the other hand the regime in North Korea is the most important thing to North Koreans, annihilation is the last thing they want.

The last reason we take North Korea less seriously than Iran is about the image portrayed by both nations and their leaders. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is older and looks more serious than the podgy, young Kim Jong-Un. North Korean propaganda also makes North Korea look like a joke, the little we hear about them is simply hilarious. According to North Korean propaganda, Jim Il-Sung (the original dictator) had a "supernatural" birth,  Jim Jong-Il was a worldwide fashion trend setter and people loved him globally and he invented the hamburger. Less is propaganda is known about Kim Jong-Un, apart from the 'fact' that he found a unicorn lair. Seriously. And North Korea wonders why we won't take them seriously.

North Korea Determined to Start War

In 1962 the world braced itself for nuclear war, it was looking increasingly likely that the USA and USSR would be unable to come to an agreement over what to do about the Caribbean nation of Cuba. Thankfully the crisis was ended with a peace deal, not nuclear war, but the event has generally been noted by historians as the one occasion when nuclear war was a real possibility.  It would appear that Kim Jong-Un is trying to add 2013 as the next year when nuclear war could be a realistic outcome. In the past few months he has been ratcheting up tensions with the US and South Korea over a multitude of issues. The latest escalation came when the North released the following statement:

“We formally inform the White House and Pentagon that the ever-escalating US hostile policy towards the DPRK [North Korea] and its reckless nuclear threat will be smashed by the strong will of all the united service personnel and people and cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike… and that the merciless operation of its revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.”

In response to the declaration the US has begun moving nuclear defences to Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. Unfortunately this has been taken as an act of aggression by North Korea which seems hell bent on re-starting the Korean War, taking millions of people with it.

Already North Korea has declared a state of war with South Korea, although no direct actions have yet taken place. It has further antagonised the south by threatening to re-start a project to great weapons grade nuclear material and promised to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire”. Its actions earlier this year by performing another nuclear test have not helped the situation.

But will all this actually lead to a war? It’s difficult to say, it could be that Jong-Un is trying to solidify power by proving to the military leaders that he can be tough on the West. The difficulty is that Jong-Un could heighten tensions so much that war becomes inevitable, that the US or South Korea launch a pre-emptive strike out of pure fear. Very little is known about the Orwellian society so attempting to predict an outcome is difficult, will the north go to war? I would like to think not, but I’m not going to try and predict what will happen next.

North Korean Craziness

If there was a prize for craziest regime, I believe North Korea would win that prize. In the past week several stories have emerged of the regime threatening catastrophic war. A couple of days ago North Korea threatened to void the armistice that ended the devastating Korean War in 1953. North Korea threatened both South Korea and Japan with war if certain conditions are not met, the regime claimed that they would turn the Seoul Presidential Palace into a "sea of fire". The issue over which North Korea is getting so aggressive about is joint sea and land exercises by the South Korean and US military which are due to take place on the 11th, four days away. In response South Korea has said that any attack would be taken as an act of war and South Korea will defend itself.

But even North Korea managed to top its own craziness and has threatened the US with nuclear war. The regime claims that the US is using the military drills as a cover to plant nuclear weapons. "Since the US is about to ignite a nuclear war, we will be exercising our right to pre-emptive nuclear attack against the headquarters of the aggressor in order to protect our supreme interest." Paranoid, right?

It is true that the North Korean regime always uses aggressive rhetoric when it comes to South Korea and its allies. Yet this seems to be a new level, threatening nuclear annihilation. This heightening of rhetoric occurred when the UN Security Council was discussing new sanctions on North Korea due to their nuclear test last month. The heightened rhetoric probably helped to push China into agreeing to the new sanctions earlier today, this will put real pressure on the small, isolated nation.

The big problem with North Korea is that no-one knows how to deal with it. An invasion would be totally out of the question, China is unlikely to agree to it so an invasion from the north is out of the question. The border between South and North Korea is too heavily defended and an amphibious invasion would be extremely costly to the invader. We have to see how sanctions go but I feel that eventually different actions will have to be taken. The US may be forced to place nuclear weapons in South Korea and Japan to try and act as a deterrence against North Korea. In the mean time, let's hope they don't do anything stupid! 

The Next Failed State?

It seems that Syria may become the world’s latest addition to its failed states list. The violence that has been raging for two years has torn the country apart, the UN estimates over 70,000 Syrians have been killed, 1.2 million internally displaced and around 500,000 have fled to neighbouring countries. Unfortunately for the Syrian people, the end is nowhere in sight. The rebels have grabbed control over vast proportions of the north and east of the country, whilst the government still controls most of the major cities as well as the southern and coastal areas. Whereas the Assad loyalists have aircrafts and tanks, the rebels mostly have AK-47s and other small weapons. The international community has been totally inept in dealing with Syria, the UN Security Council won’t ever be able to act as Russia (which can veto any resolution) remains an ally of Syria. America and Britain both back the rebels over Assad but remember vividly the spectacular failure of the Iraq War and subsequent violence. Russia and Iran still back the Assad regime, providing him with arms and money which render Western sanctions largely ineffective.

The West must change its position on Syria, our current approach is simply not working, to many Syrians have died already. A good start would be to create a no fly zone over Syria and enforcing it, this would help the rebels deep in rebel held territory as the regime would find it harder to attack them. It would also give Syrians fleeing Assad’s henchmen a safe haven and it would give the rebels a chance to gain strength. Limited arming of the rebels should be carried out, strictly to non-Islamist/Salafist groups, this would give the rebels a better chance of winning against tanks and other heavy machinery. Over the past decade the West has tried to stamp out terrorism wherever it finds it, if Syria were to fall into pure and unadulterated chaos, then we would have another area of the world perfect for breeding terrorists.

Tomorrow a group of countries called the “Friends of Syria” will meet in Rome along with leaders of the Syrian opposition. The group contains over 100 countries, including America, France and Britain and aims to help the rebels. Previous meetings don’t seem to have had much effect on Syria, let’s hope this meeting goes better.

Whilst the world watches and discusses action in Syria, many more will die. We must act soon, to save lives.

North Korean Nuclear Test

North Korea has further infuriated the world earlier today when the small, isolated country carried out a third nuclear test. North Korea is a rogue state, it only has one friend in the world: China. Despite the alliance with North Korea, China is worried about what its little neighbour will do if it actually acquires fully functioning, long range, nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly the West will call for tougher sanctions on North Korea, but this won’t stop Kim Jong-Un from achieving the inevitable. The rest of the world must realise that North Korea will become a truly nuclear state within the next few years, and although we should do whatever we can to slow their progress, we must prepare for what comes after North Korea’s success. A nuclear North Korea would pose a grave threat to world security, none more so than neighbouring South Korea and close-by Japan. In both these countries people fear that the craziness of the North Korean regime should not be underestimated and that a nuclear attack on either country should not be dismissed. So what can Japan and South Korea do to defend themselves? The North Korea-South Korea border is already the most heavily fortified in the world and both countries have a massive military. Currently the situation is somewhat stable, but nuclear weapons for North Korea would throw the balance off completely. One suggestion is stationing US nuclear weapons in Japan and South Korea in a form of a nuclear sharing programme. Probably similar to how the US currently shares some nuclear weapons with several NATO countries. Naturally placing US weapons in South Korea and Japan would make China very nervous, putting a strain on Sino-American relationships. Considering the rise of China, the Americans might be wary of angering the future super power. For obvious historical reasons, many in Japan would be very upset at the idea of American nuclear weapons in Japan, especially considering they’d likely be in the south of the country close to Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

Unfortunately it’s impossible to know a way out of the situation. An invasion is totally out of the situation as the North Korean military is very strong for a small country and the border is extremely well fortified. A war would likely be as devastating to the Korean peninsula as was the previous Korean War in which 2.5 million people were killed. 

Review 2012

Well what a year we’ve had! There has been the most expensive Presidential Election of any country ever, Greece has gone from bad to worse, the Arab Spring continues in Syria and here in Britain we entered into a double dip recession. Although I don’t feel that 2012 was the year of change that 2011 was, it will still go down as important in the history books. The shooting of a 15 year old girl by the Pakistani Taliban sparked outrage in the country. The attack could help to stop people joining the terrorist organisation! The Palestinian-Israeli conflict took a turn for the worse after Israel killed one of Hamas’ leaders and Israel was furious when Palestine had its status upgraded in the UN.

The year saw a change of leadership in China and France and Greece choose a new government for its sinking economy. It was confirmed that in 2013 the EU will get a new member, Croatia, whilst the Eurozone crisis continued to rattle on.  

The year ahead of us will be the sixth since the economic crisis began and still there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Predictions are that the Eurozone economy has shrunk by a small amount in the past year, the same is true for Britain. What stopped the crisis that began in 2007 being worse than the 1929 crash was the economies of the developing nations, particularly Brazil, China and India. Unfortunately their economies are beginning to slow down, China has stopped producing double digit growth for the first time in a decade and India and Brazil are below 5%. Although European countries would kill for growth figures like those, the world economy depends on them being very high. The US has just fallen off the fiscal cliff (although a deal should be one the way) and Europe’s economy is expected to shrink again this year, if the developing nations’ economies do start to slow this could have cataclysmic knock on effects.

We are living in a time of change, what happens over the next year could prove very important in the long run.  

Chinese Leadership Change

The once-in-a-decade change in the leadership of China took place last year in the capital Beijing. It was revealed in November that Xi Jinping would become the next leader of China. There were no surprises in who else got promoted; many media organisations such as the New York Time correctly predicted the exact results. China seems to be somewhat institutionalising its system of governance, this was only the second time since the Communists won the revolution in 1949 that there has been a peaceful change of power! That doesn’t mean that China doesn’t face enormous challenges.

New leader Xi Jinping shaking hands with the former
leader, Hu Jintao
Source: bbc.co.uk

The next decade will prove to be a very important one, it is predicted that the Chinese economy will gallop ahead and overtake the American economy in size. The past decade has been phenomenal for the country, consistently producing double digit growth, even as the West faced economic catastrophe. Unfortunately this growth has come with problems, corruption has spiked in China with high ranking members becoming extremely wealthy. The change China has undergone in the past two decades is astounding, it has gone from a strictly government controlled economy to one in which there is market capitalism. As a result a middle class has emerged in China, unfortunately for the leadership of China this will cause serious trouble. China is not a democracy, and as the middle class grows; the people will demand more control over their lives and more control over the government. This could cause serious problems for China, a struggle over who controls the country would destroy the economy and dash any hopes of overtaking America in the next decade. As well as these struggles, there are serious debates to be had in the ruling Communist Party. On one side are the old-style Maoists who already are frustrated with the increasing amount of capitalism in the Chinese economy, on the other side are people pushing for more market reforms. This fight could tear the party apart, the fall from grace of Maoist, Bo Xilai, will have far reaching affects within the Party.

The problems posed by corruption, a burgeoning middle class with no say in governance and arguments within the Communist Party make the next decade unpredictable, but one thing we can all agree on; it will decide where China will end up.

Terrorism

Terrorism did not slow down in 2012 unfortunately, thousands of people were killed across the globe in terrorist atrocities. Yet most of those attacks took place in just a handful of countries:

Country	Attacks*	Dead
Iraq	55	1,676
Afghanistan	35	543
Nigeria	21	511
Pakistan	30	425
Yemen	14	328
Somalia	11	78
Russia	9	51
Kenya	8	47
Colombia	5	31
China	2	26

*Co-ordinated attacks that take place on one day are counted as one attack.

Looking at this rather horrifying table you can see that Iraq had the worst year of any country. Terrorists killed over three times as many people as in Afghanistan, the second worst affected country. One of the most prominent terrorist attacks of the year was not in Iraq or Afghanistan, but Pakistan; the shooting of 15 year old Malala Yousafzai. Thankfully Malala survived and is recovering well in a British hospital. There were protests all across Pakistan against the assassination attempt and 50 Islamic clerics issued a fatwā against the perpetrators. Despite this the Taliban claim they still want to kill her and her father. So what was her ‘crime’? Trying to get young girls into education in Pakistan, this infuriated the Taliban who are anti-education especially when it comes to women. As Malala rose to fame in Pakistan, the Taliban increasingly sent death threats to her home and on the internet. But she continued in her struggle, in 2011 Desmond Tutu nominated her for the International Children’s Peace Prize and later won Pakistan’s first National Youth Prize. Time magazine recently selected her as the runner up of Time Magazine’s person of the year.

There was some pleasant news on the terrorist front, Anders Breivik, was finally sentenced to Prison for this mass shooting and bombing in July 2011.  There is finally closure for the families of the 77 killed and those that were on the island of Utøya on that fateful day.

Up until November 2012, Northern Ireland was relatively quiet on the terrorism front, apart from the odd bomb scare. Then on the 1^st of November a prison officer was shot dead. Then trouble began after Belfast City Council voted to fly the Union flag on certain days of the year. That seriously upset some unionists who for the past few weeks have been causing chaos across Northern Ireland, but particularly in Belfast.

Terrorism is something that will likely always exist, it will never go away but certain places such as the Basque region, Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka all prove that things can be done to improve the situation, to show the terrorists that talking produces better results. The West should learn from these if it ever wants to truly ‘defeat the Taliban’.

Malala Yousafzai's page in Time Magazine

North Korea Launches Rocket

The world condemned North Korea this morning after it successfully launched a rocket into orbit. This has terrified South Korea which shares a hostile border with its northern neighbour and Japan which is also in close proximity. Both nations are aware that North Korea has nuclear weapons and with this successful satellite launch, may have a means of delivery.

Under UN sanctions North Korea is banned from launching rockets, immediately Japan called on the Security Council to hold meetings over the event. Morocco, which holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council, announced that that there would be closed door discussions today. The US was swift in its condemnation of the launch, the White House made the following statement this morning: “The international community must work in a concerted fashion to send North Korea a clear message that its violations of UN Security Council resolutions have consequences.” We won’t know for a while what those consequences will be yet. It will be important to watch what China does in this situation, China is North Korea’s closest ally, and although it warned North Korea strongly against launching the rocket, its response has been noticeably tamer than those of the other Security Council members. China will likely be angry at North Korea for following this path; this launch will likely cause North Korea, Japan and the US to increase military cooperation in the area which could weaken China’s position. Getting a resolution past China, which has a veto, could still prove difficult.

This is all happening in the context of starving North Koreans who have been brainwashed to believe that the North Korean state, and in particular its leaders, are saints. The rare glimpse we get of North Korea from the outside world is truly shocking, people praise their leaders for their guidance but unbeknownst to them their leaders don’t care about them. With the knowledge of widespread brainwashing, the type Hitler tried in Germany; it’s hard to see a revolution occurring in North Korea for a long, long time. With that in mind the West, and in particular South Korea and Japan, must prepare for a world in which North Korea can wipe out whole cities in its neighbouring countries. Would the US placing nuclear weapons in South Korea or Japan be out of the question? North Korea may be less likely to use a nuclear weapon frivolously if it thinks Japan or South Korea could launch an immediate counter strike. Could we see a revival of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) Doctrine in North East Asia? It is early days yet, but the craziness of the North Korean regime should not be underestimated, the West’s reaction needs to be swift. Very swift.  

Leadership Change in China

In China, a once in a decade change of leadership is taking place. Today the Chinese Communist Party selected a new Central Committee; tomorrow it will reveal who will lead China for the next decade. The Chinese economy has expanded rapidly over the past ten years, its economy has increased over fivefold from $1.5 trillion in 2002 to $8.3 trillion this year! It has overtaken France, the UK, Germany and Japan to become the world’s second largest economy. Despite all this success, the future is far from certain. China has a terrible track record on human rights and democracy and the growing middle class there is getting increasingly upset at the lack of control over their government. The new Chinese leadership will have two options, introduce some reforms to appease the middle class or crush dissent lack they did in Tiananmen Square in 1989. The problem with the latter is that crushing dissent is harder to do in the internet era and could slow China’s rapid growth.

One of China’s major problems is the high level of corruption in government; the fact that the leaders’ families have become extremely wealthy does not sit well with the poor and middle class. In his address to the Communist Party last week, the outgoing leader, Hu Jintao, brought up the problem of corruption and said that the new Chinese leadership would need to tackle it. The issue of corruption was flung into the centre of Chinese politics earlier this year when Bo Xilai was accused of rampant corruption and his wife, Gu Kailai was convicted of murdering British businessman Neil Heywood.

Hu Jintao speaking to the Communist Party

Nobody really knows what the next decade holds for China, ask ten different ‘experts’ and you would end up with ten different answers. Some are predicting that growth will remain at its current stratospheric levels; some predict that it will begin to slow due to problems in its two main export markets, Europe and the USA. Others predict total economic and/or political collapse. One thing everyone agrees on: The next decade will be extremely important China. 

Syria, the Never-ending Problem

There has been one major area of policy that Romney has largely ignored in the current presidential election and that is foreign policy. Anytime he does attempt to draw a position, it turns into a major gaffe; during his overseas trip in July he managed to insult the British, Arabs and Polish. More recently he politicised the death of US ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, before he even knew the facts and he failed to mention the war in Afghanistan during his acceptance speech at the RNC last month. Now Romney is attempting to weigh in on the Syrian crisis as the battle is getting increasingly bloody. It is also important to note that Romney views Syria as a way to get at Iran, Syria is one of Iran's closest allies; he believes depriving Iran of another ally would be extremely bad for President Ahmadinejad. In extracts from a speech he will make later today Romney says:

“Iran is sending arms to Assad because they know his downfall would be a strategic defeat for them. We should be working no less vigorously with our international partners to support the many Syrians who would deliver that defeat to Iran – rather than sitting on the sidelines.”

Romney believes that America should arm the rebels, not just with small arms, but with heavy weapons that could take out tanks and helicopters. Do you remember when America armed rebels in Afghanistan? Do you also remember when some of those rebels used their American training to carry out 9/11? This is an extremely risky strategy, although I do believe that the vast majority of the Syrian rebels are genuinely trying to overthrow a dictatorial regime, islamists from across the Arab world are seeing Syria as a possible training site for a future generation of jihadists.

There are also fears that the Syrian conflict could spill over into some of its more unstable neighbours; Iraq and Lebanon and maybe destabilise Jordan as well. The chances of a Turkish invasion of Syria are looking increasingly likely; Syria has already shot down Turkish fighter jets and launched missiles into Turkish villages killing hundreds. Syria has abandoned the Kurdish area of its country; Turkey fears that in doing so it will become a training ground for Kurdish rebels who will attack Turkey. Just a few days ago the Turkish parliament voted to allow moving Turkish forces into Syria if it was provoked, sending a clear message to Damascus that it must stop attacking Turks.

With the international community totally paralysed thanks to the actions of Russia and China it is difficult to see what the West should do next. Maybe Mitt Romney’s idea is the right thing to do, although history suggests that we may get more than we wish for. 

2000th American Serviceman Dies

Today marks a new milestone in the war in Afghanistan.  Following an attack on a remote army base, the number of American causalities rises to 2000. If Obama wins re-election in November the war will finally come to a close in 2014. Ending the war in Afghanistan is a popular one, with the majority of Americans believing that the war should end on or before the 2014 deadline. This is a view held by every section of society, even by the Republicans! Unfortunately if Mitt Romney wins, then the war has no end; he has already declared his opposition to the 2014 deadline and even says that it was a ‘shame’ that Obama ended the war in Iraq.

If you’ve been paying attention to American politics you will notice a refusal to talk about foreign policy on the Republican side. Particularly when it comes to the war in Afghanistan, Romney was blasted for failing to mention the war when he accepted the Republican nomination for president in Tampa, Florida. Gallup also notes that the Democrats are now more trusted on foreign policy than the Republicans, it’s ironic that four years ago Obama was seen as the weaker candidate on foreign policy. Yet as he presided over the killing of Bin Laden, the end of the Iraq war, the decimation of Al-Qaeda and the Arab Spring it is now viewed as a strong point.

The war will not end for two more years. Minimum. There will be more deaths and more sacrifice, for many Americans, the sooner the war ends, the better. 

New World Order - Indonesia

Population: 237 million

Area: 1.9 million km²

GDP: $ 1 trillion

GDP (per capita): $ 4,700

Economic Growth: 6.4%

Democracy? Yes

Despite being the fourth largest country in the world, when most people think of a new world order, they don’t think of Indonesia. Although it will never become a global superpower, I do believe it will one day challenge the Wests dominance.

One of Indonesia’s biggest disadvantages is how dispersed it is, it is made up of over 17,000 islands although over half (133 million) live on the island of Java. This still leaves 100 million people on other islands. This hampers Indonesia as it makes travelling within Indonesia difficult as a boat or plane must always be used. Although this could have its advantages, shipping by boat is still the most popular way to transport goods, by the nature of having many islands; no part of Indonesia is too far from the coast.

One way this could at least by partially remedied is by a series of tunnels or bridges. A bridge is already currently being constructed between the country’s two most populous islands, Java and Sumatra. It wouldn’t be unthinkable either to link Bali to Java or Sumatra to Malaysia. The latter would thus connect the capital Jakarta to the continent of Asia. Bridges or tunnels would be attractive in the above situations, but may not extend to some of Indonesia’s other large islands such as Borneo, Sulawesi or New Guinea. Here it may prove too expensive or even impossible to link these islands to the more populous southern islands.

Below is a map of Indonesia, the red islands on the map are islands that have a population greater than one million. Pink represents another country.

Indonesia’s growing economy can be seen by some recent events. Until 2009 Indonesia was a member of OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), it had to leave the group in 2009 because domestic demand was so high that it was no longer a net oil exporter. Oil is a good measure of the wealth of a nation as it is necessary for all major industries; the more oil a country requires, the more industry and wealth a country has.

Yet like all the other developing nations poverty is still a major issue in Indonesia, at only $4,700 GDP per capita, Indonesia is still in the rank of poor nations.

Jakarta - the Capital of Indonesia

New World Order - India

Population: 1.2 billion

Area:  3.2 million km²

GDP: $ 1.7 trillion

GDP (per capita): $ 1,400

Economic Growth: 6.5%

Democracy? Yes

The booming country is the world’s largest democracy, with a population of 1.2 billion and rising. Some projections believe that the consequences of China’s one child policy and India’s rapid population growth will mean that India will have the world’s largest population. Yet despite a similar population, India has a long way to go before it catches up with China in terms of India’s economy. The Indian economy is one seventh the size of the Chinese economy. Indian growth is also smaller than China. Yet India does have one big advantage over China, it is a democracy. The importance of this is that it makes India more stable, as people do not need to turn to violent protest to change their government. Rather they simply try to elect leaders that reflect their opinions.

India does have many challenges to face, one of the most prominent is the huge amount of poverty, 42% of Indians live on less than $1.25 a day and unemployment stands at 9.8%. Indian industry is also not as good as it could be, agriculture still makes up 52% of the economy with industry and services making up 14% and 34% respectively.

Literacy also poses a serious threat to Indian growth, currently the literacy rate is only 74%, significantly below the world average of 84%. The Indian government knows that it will need to tackle this issue soon, how can India expect to grow if it has the largest population of illiterate people. At the current, poor, rate of growth India will only eliminate illiteracy in 2060, 48 years away! This is simply not good enough, the graph below compares India’s literacy rate to other countries. Note just how high China is.

Although India has massive problems in the areas of poverty, education, infrastructure and industry, this can and will be remedied. India has a lot of potential, there are many opportunities for it to grow, but the government must be prepared to take risks if the country is to achieve greatness. 

The extreme poverty people experience in the slums must be rectified soon

New World Order - China

China

Population: 1.3 billion

Area: 9.6 million km²

GDP: $11 trillion

GDP (per capita): $8,400

Economic Growth: 8.2%

Democracy? No

When it comes to developing nations, China is one of the first to come to mind. It is the world’s largest county in terms of population and the second largest in terms of GDP, set to overtake the USA within half a century. The rise of China worries the West more than the rise of the other nation, China is not a democracy and it doesn’t look like it will become one anytime soon. For the last two hundred years the top country has always been a democracy, first Britain and then the United States. In international affairs China could become top dog in the not-so-distant future.

China certainly wields the most influence of the countries I am reviewing; it is the only one with veto power on the UN Security Council and already has the second largest economy. One thing China is doing, that I would advise the West to pay close attention to, is investing in Africa. China has recognised that Africa has big potential, the continent is full of resources and it has a booming population.

China’s disadvantage is this; it’s not a democracy. China is the only one of the five rising nations that I’ve mentioned that isn’t a democracy, and doesn’t claim to be a democracy. The problem this poses for China is that the enlarging middle class will start to demand a say in government. Once this begins growth in China will slow and the country could descend into violence. Although it is unlikely that China will descend into violence any time soon, it will have to happen eventually. The citizens of China can see many fully functioning, wealthy democracies in the world and they will begin to ask; why not us?

Yet the rise of China is not so certain, recent growth figures show China’s economy is beginning to slow. The problem is a drop in demand from its largest export market – Europe and poor demand domestically. Although China’s slower growth rate would be the envy of any Western nation, if China is to continue to expand rapidly it must maintain its impressive growth figures.

A Chinese City - the high rise skyscrapers are typical in modern China

The New World Order

Between the Age of Discovery in the 15^th century and World War Two, European nations ruled the world, both directly and indirectly. The colonial Empires of Spain and Portugal dominating in the early years of Empire, but they were eventually leapfrogged by the French and British Empires, and to a lesser extent the Dutch Empire. Russia, Germany, Austria and Italy also played an important role, especially in the later years. By the time the 20^th century dawned the world was changing, Japan and the US were emerging powers and Germany was threatening the balance of power within Europe itself. The two World Wars that followed devastated Europe, both economically and politically, immediately after WWII the empires of France and Britain fell apart and the UK handed superpower status to the USSR and USA. Yet Europe was far from unimportant, the USSR was a European country after all, and Germany, France and Britain still commanded significant influence. But with the fall of the USSR in the early 1990s, for the first time in modern history, the most powerful and important nation was not a European one, rather the USA.

So I think I’ve made my point, countries rise and fall and everyone has to adapt to the new world order brought about every century or so. Although Europe is still far from unimportant, of the top 20 economies, nine are European and of the five countries with a veto on the UN Security Council, three are European.

The Question is where is the world heading? Who will be the new countries on the scene, which nations will challenge western power?

The truth is nobody really knows, but there are certainly contenders. Over the next few days I will write about countries I believe could take the mantle of power from the West. The big debate surrounds whether China will eventually best the USA or will another country be the one to overtake America?

The following are the countries I believe have a chance of besting the west:

1.       China – the favourite to become the next superpower

2.       India – A rising nation with a population set to become bigger than China

3.       Brazil – the big boy of the South American economies

4.       Mexico – the rising star that may not be if drug lords have their way

5.       Indonesia – the island nation could be a surprise winner

6.       Africa – as a continent it will not take power any time soon – but its day will surely come 

New World Order Countries in red