Chinese Leadership Change

The once-in-a-decade change in the leadership of China took place last year in the capital Beijing. It was revealed in November that Xi Jinping would become the next leader of China. There were no surprises in who else got promoted; many media organisations such as the New York Time correctly predicted the exact results. China seems to be somewhat institutionalising its system of governance, this was only the second time since the Communists won the revolution in 1949 that there has been a peaceful change of power! That doesn’t mean that China doesn’t face enormous challenges.

New leader Xi Jinping shaking hands with the former
leader, Hu Jintao
Source: bbc.co.uk

The next decade will prove to be a very important one, it is predicted that the Chinese economy will gallop ahead and overtake the American economy in size. The past decade has been phenomenal for the country, consistently producing double digit growth, even as the West faced economic catastrophe. Unfortunately this growth has come with problems, corruption has spiked in China with high ranking members becoming extremely wealthy. The change China has undergone in the past two decades is astounding, it has gone from a strictly government controlled economy to one in which there is market capitalism. As a result a middle class has emerged in China, unfortunately for the leadership of China this will cause serious trouble. China is not a democracy, and as the middle class grows; the people will demand more control over their lives and more control over the government. This could cause serious problems for China, a struggle over who controls the country would destroy the economy and dash any hopes of overtaking America in the next decade. As well as these struggles, there are serious debates to be had in the ruling Communist Party. On one side are the old-style Maoists who already are frustrated with the increasing amount of capitalism in the Chinese economy, on the other side are people pushing for more market reforms. This fight could tear the party apart, the fall from grace of Maoist, Bo Xilai, will have far reaching affects within the Party.

The problems posed by corruption, a burgeoning middle class with no say in governance and arguments within the Communist Party make the next decade unpredictable, but one thing we can all agree on; it will decide where China will end up.