Throughout 2014 one man and one party dominated political
discussions in the UK; Nigel Farage and UKIP. At the beginning of 2014 UKIP and
the Liberal Democrats were both scraping double digits, although it was clear
that UKIP were pulling away. The average of polls on ukpollingreport show that
by December the Lib Dems averaged 7.6%, compared to 15.4% for UKIP.
UKIP achieved great success in the European elections,
placing first for the first time with 24 seats to Labour’s 20 and the
Conservative’s 19. They managed to win a seat in all of Britain’s regions,
except Northern Ireland. In the council elections held the same day UKIP gained
163 seats, finishing with 17% of the vote, 5% lower than the 2013 council
elections which were held in more UKIP friendly, rural councils. The huge
amount of media coverage over the year has helped to bolster its support, which
could have a huge impact on May’s General Election. UKIP also succeeded in
getting its first MP’s elected. After Conservative MPs Douglas Carswell and Mark
Reckless defected from the Conservative Party to UKIP, they resigned to trigger
by-elections: they both won election easily as the UKIP candidate.
Whilst UKIP had a great year, the Liberal Democrats had a
truly awful one. In the European elections they lost half their vote share and
10 of their 11 MEPs. They did so badly that they were in 5th place,
behind the Green Party. In the council elections they lost 310 councillors and
got a lower percentage of the vote than UKIP. Things looks so bad for the Lib
Dems that Nick Clegg, the party leader, many lose his seat in the Sheffield
Hallam constituency. Considering he won 53% in 2010, with a majority of 30%, it
would be a truly astounding coup.
2014 has undoubtedly been the best year for Farage and
UKIP, the question is: will this continue into 2015? At the moment it certainly
seems likely, UKIP and its members have been involved in numerous gaffes, yet
its popularity has been unaffected by them. Despite UKIP’s popularity, there is
one group that simply refuses to support it: young people. In a poll published
late December of people aged 17-22 (people who will be eligible to vote in a
General Election for the first time in May 2015) showed that UKIP had next to
no support amongst the demographic. According to the poll Labour came top with
41%, the Tories second with 26%, followed by the Greens on 19%, the Lib Dems on
6% and UKIP on a measly 3%. Not only that, Farage is deeply unpopular with the
age group, scoring a net approval rating (the percentage of people who approve minus the percentage of people who disapprove) of -51% which is by far the worst of
all the party leaders. UKIP’s unpopularity is down to young people being
socially liberal and very pro-EU: 67% said they would vote to stay in the EU,
compared to 19% who would vote to leave.
Whilst UKIP may succeed in the short run, the future is
not favourable to UKIP after all, young people are the future.
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| Nigel Farage (centre) with UKIP's two MPs, Mark Reckless (left) and Douglas Carswell (right) |
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