Crisis in Ukraine

By the time 2014 rolled in, Ukraine was already in the middle of mass protests. The protests, nicknamed Euromaidan, were initially in response to pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych suspending preparations for the signing of an association agreement with the EU. The harsh crackdown by the government helped to embolden the protesters, which eventually resulted in Yanukovych fleeing the country on the 22^nd of February. Many Westerners assumed that would have meant the end of unrest in Ukraine, however that could not have been further from the truth.

Pro-Russian supporters in Crimea
Source: www.bbc.co.uk/news

The ousting of pro-Russian Yanukovych outraged his supporters and the Russian minority in Ukraine. The outrage was especially concentrated in the south and east of the country, where Yanukovych had drawn much of his support in elections. Outrage was especially pronounced in Crimea, which had the largest Russian minority in Ukraine. In fact ethnic Russians actually outnumbered ethnic Ukrainians in the peninsula. By the 26^th of February pro-Russian protesters had taken control of many positions within Crimea. Many of these ‘pro-Russian protesters’ were actually Russian servicemen in disguise. Many international observers believed that this was actually orchestrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. When asked about this in April Putin seemed to confirm Western suspicions when he said that “of course Russian servicemen backed the Crimean self-defence forces.” A referendum was held on the 16^th of March on whether Crimea should join the Russian Federation. The vote (which was rigged) went overwhelmingly in favour of joining Russia, as a result Russia now considers the territory Russian, despite little international recognition.

After the remarkable success of Russia in taking Crimea, Putting turned his attention to eastern Ukraine. The eastern Oblasts (provinces) of Donetsk and Luhansk, known collectively as Donbass, have sizeable populations of ethnic Russians. However unlike Crimea, where ethnic Russians make up a majority of the population, they are only minorities in Donetsk and Luhansk. In the former they make up 38% and in the latter 39%. As a result simply taking the Oblasts would be far more difficult, and would be resisted much more by Ukraine. In early March pro-Russian militias began seizing government buildings in eastern Ukraine, many demanding independence from the country. They were remarkably similar to the protests in Crimea the previous month. Over the next six months the unrest turned into a full scale revolt with obvious, though unofficial, material support from Russia. Eventually a ceasefire was signed on the 5^th of September, which has been violated by both sides but is largely holding.

2015 will be an important year for Ukraine. Its government in Kiev is actively pursuing closer ties to Europe, whilst parts of the country are trying to separate. If Donetsk and Luhansk do break off this will be absolutely remarkable, and should worry countries with a Russian border.