The Left is Back in Greece

Shockwaves have rippled throughout Europe as the anti-austerity party, Syriza romped to victory in the elections held in Greece on Sunday. Alexis Tsipras, the leader of Syriza has promised to renegotiate the bailout terms with Greece’s international backers known as the Troika (a coalition of Eurozone countries, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank). His aim is to end the devastating austerity that has caused the Greek economy to experience near perpetual recession for the past six years. When asked what Syriza’s victory meant, Tsipras responded “the vicious cycle of austerity is over.”

Following the financial catastrophe of 2008, Greece’s debt became a massive problem for government finances. Greece needed to borrow money to keep the country running, but was unable to borrow from the banks due to the extortionate interest rates it was being charged. To save the Greek economy from collapse the Troika offered the Greek government a bailout. In exchange the Greek government would have to slash spending by huge amounts to balance its books. However this was the wrong time for austerity, private spending was already low due to the crash, so government spending was required to keep the economy afloat. Unfortunately the terms of the bailout resulted in plummeting private and public spending, creating a vicious cycle of decline. As many Greeks lost their jobs or had their pay cut, government tax revenues went down and welfare payments went up. However since the government was required to try and balance its budget, this created a bigger imbalance and forced further cuts. This meant less money in the economy, so more people were made unemployed, which in turn made government finances even worse off.

No wonder people voted for the most viable anti-austerity party; Syriza.

In the election Syriza managed to win 36.4% of the vote and 149 seats (just two short of a majority) compared to 27.8% and 76 seats for New Democracy, the senior party in the ruling coalition. This victory for Syriza is a line in the sand for both Greece and Europe. It has shown what will happen when you unleash harsh austerity on your people. Greece is far from unique, in Spain the anti-austerity and left-wing party Podemos was leading in the polls at the end of last year, despite only being founded in January! It also serves as a warning to establishment left-wing parties across Europe, including Labour hear in Britain. The rise in popularity of Syriza has been possible thanks to the collapse of the establishment left-wing party, Pasok. It entered into a collation with the conservative New Democracy and helped to unleash the austerity Greece has had to undergo. Other establishment left-wing parties should be wary before carrying out similar programs back home.

It is a new day in Europe, what happens next with Greece will decide the fate of the European integration project that is the European Union.  

Syriza supporters celebrate following victory in the election
Souce: BBC

Same-Sex Marriage Becomes ‘the Norm’ in American States

The expansion of marriage rights has made great progress in 2014. In total 18 states expanded marriage rights to same-sex couples, entirely through the courts system.

The first of these cracks opened up in December 2013 when, to everyone’s surprise, a federal judge in Utah ruled that the state’s same-sex marriage ban was unconstitutional. Although it was stayed pending appeal, it set the state for what 2014 would become: a battle in the courts for gay rights.

14^th January – Oklahoma ban ruled unconstitutional

23^rd January – Virginia Attorney general stated that he would not defend the state’s ban

10^th February – Nevada Attorney General stated that she would not defend the state’s ban

12^th February – Kentucky told to recognise same-sex marriages performed in other jurisdictions

13^th February – Virginia ban ruled unconstitutional

25^th February – Texas ban ruled unconstitutional

21^st March – Michigan ban ruled unconstitutional

9^th May – Arkansas ban ruled unconstitutional

13^th May – Idaho ban ruled unconstitutional

19^th May – Oregon ban ruled unconstitutional, state did not appeal ruling legalising same-sex marriage immediately in that state

20^th May – Pennsylvania ban ruled unconstitutional, state did not appeal ruling legalising same-sex marriage immediately in that state

6^th June – Wisconsin ban ruled unconstitutional

25^th June – Tenth Circuit Court rules that Utah’s ban is unconstitutional, Utah appeals to the Supreme Court

25^th June – Indiana ban ruled unconstitutional

1^st July – Kentucky ban ruled unconstitutional

9^th July – Colorado state judge rules that the state’s ban is unconstitutional

21^st July – Florida ban ruled unconstitutional, stayed until the 5^th of January

28^th July – Fourth Circuit Court affirms Virginia’s ban as unconstitutional

3^rd September – Louisiana’s ban ruled constitutional, the first set-back thanks to a court for same-sex marriage rights in 2014

4^th September – Seventh Circuit Court affirms that Indiana and Wisconsin bans are unconstitutional

6^th October – The Supreme Court declines to hear appeals in Utah, Oklahoma, Indiana, Wisconsin and Virginia

The Supreme Court’s decision on the 6^th of October was huge, by refusing to hear the appeals it effectively upheld the lower courts’ rulings and meant that same-sex marriage was now legal in those five states. This meant that for the first time in American history a majority of Americans lived in states with legal same-sex marriage! Yet the ruling would not only affect those five states, any states without same-sex marriage who were under the jurisdiction of 4^th and 10^th Circuit Courts (there were none left without same-sex marriage under the 7^th Circuit Court) were at risk of losing their bans. Over the next couple of months the six states this applied to (Colorado, Kansas and Wyoming for the 10^th and North Carolina, South Carolina and West Virginia for the 4^th) all had their bans overturned, whether by court action or instruction of the state government.

7^th October – Ninth Circuit Court rules that Idaho and Nevada bans are unconstitutional*

7^th October – Colorado Attorney General asks 10^th Circuit Court and the state Supreme Court to dismiss his appeals on earlier rulings, they comply immediately

8^th October – Some counties in Kansas and South Carolina issue same-sex marriage licenses

10^th October – North Carolina ban ruled unconstitutional, judge citing the 4^th Circuit’s precedence

12^th October – Alaska ban ruled unconstitutional

17^th October – Arizona ban ruled unconstitutional

17^th October – Wyoming ban ruled unconstitutional (stay lifted on the 21^st of October)

4^th November – Kansas ban ruled unconstitutional (stay lifted on the 12^th of November)

5^th November – State judge ruling in Missouri results in St. Louis issuing same-sex marriage licenses

6^th November – Sixth Circuit Court upholds same-sex marriage as constitutional

7^th November – Missouri ban ruled unconstitutional, Jackson County (Missouri’s second largest) begins to issue same-sex marriage licenses

12^th November – South Carolina ban ruled unconstitutional (stayed until 20^th of November)

19^th November – Montana ban ruled unconstitutional

25^th November – Mississippi ban ruled unconstitutional

19^th December – Supreme Court declines to hear Florida’s appeal, marriages will begin on the 6^th of January

The 6^th Circuit Court’s ruling on the 6^th of November is especially important as it was the only circuit court to rule against same-sex marriage. This created a circuit split, which means that the Supreme Court has no choice but to rule on the constitutionality of same-sex marriage. This is why I believe that same-sex marriage will become legal in all 50 states by the end of 2015.

Democrats Suffer Worst Mid-Term Defeats in a Generation

The November elections went horrendously for the Democrats, suffering their worst mid-term defeat in recent decades. In the Senate they lost nine seats, the worst defeat of any party in the Senate since 1980, when the Democrats lost 12 seats. In the House of Representatives the Republicans enlarged their majority by making a net gain of 13 seats. The defeat of Democrats in governor races was especially stinging, given the unpopularity of many Republican Governors. The only governor Democrats managed to unseat was Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania. However Republicans managed to gain Arkansas as well as three of the bluest states in the country: Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts! The Democrats also lost badly in other state level races across the country leaving the party with control of the fewest states since the Civil War!

There were a few bright spots for liberals; Alaska, Oregon and Washington D.C. all voted to legalise marijuana whilst Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Nebraska and South Dakota all voted to raise the minimum wage. In Alaska the Independent-Democrat fusion ticket for Governor and Lieutenant Governor ousted the incumbent Republicans. In New Hampshire Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen managed to hold off against Scott Brown, making it the only race that was expected to be close that the Democrats actually won. However that was cold comfort for the many Democrats defeated on election night.

There are many reasons why the Democrats lost so badly. The Senate was always going to be an uphill battle due to the number of races held in states that Obama lost twice. Yet the Democrats did worse than they should have, even then. One of the reasons was the abysmal turnout in 2014, at 36.4% it was the lowest turnout since 1942. If you know your history that was in the middle of WWII, when many Americans were a bit too busy fighting to vote. Low turnout tends to hurt Democrats as major elements of their base are even less likely to vote, such as Hispanics and young people.

As a result of the elections Republicans now have control of the Senate and therefore Congress. What they do with this power will have huge implications for the Presidential election in 2016. It also matters a lot for Obama’s judicial nominees who require the approval of the Senate. If a Supreme Court position opens up between now and 2016, expect a truly huge fight.

Obama's party was handed a heavy defeat in the November elections
source:uptownmagazine.com

The Sex Abuse Scandal in Britain Engulfs All

Ever since it was discovered that Jimmy Savile was a serial sex abuser in late 2012, it seems that the list of sex abusers is never ending. Operation Yewtree, which was set up in 2013 to investigate historic sex abuse by celebrities has made a number of successes in 2014. Dave Lee Travis, Max Clifford, Rolf Harris and Chris Denning were all sentenced to prison for a range of offences in 2014. There are even more people due to go on trial in 2015.

People are furious as to how so many celebrities got away with sex abuse for so long. Under pressure from politicians, the public, and the press Home Secretary Theresa May opened an independent inquiry into child sex abuse in July. However the inquiry has been plagued with scandal itself. Baroness Butler-Sloss was chosen to lead the inquiry initially, however she stood down due to her connexions with some of the people she was investigating. Her successor, Fiona Woolf, had to stand down for the exact same reason! It was reported late last month that May was considering scrapping the inquiry and starting it a fresh, of perhaps creating a royal commission instead. I feel that this would be the right decision as the inquiry has lost the confidence of the victims of abuse, who are the people we should be most concerned about.

Allegations have also surfaced of a paedophile sex ring that involved very powerful people, including some MPs. The abuse, which I will not describe here, was absolutely sickening and mostly involved very young boys. The Metropolitan Police is investigating the matter, including the murder of three young boys. The victims of the abuse who have come forward believe that the three boys were murdered to show the others what would happen to them if they told anyone.

Police Brutality Divides America

America has had a problem with police brutality for a long time. Every year hundreds of people die at the hands of American police and many more are beaten up. In 2014 alone at least 587 people were killed by cops. You can see a graph of this below.

What galvanised Americans was the shooting of black teenager Michael Brown in the town of Ferguson, Missouri by white police officer Darren Wilson. The fact that Brown was unarmed and the belief that he was running away when Wilson started shooting and then put his hands up to surrender infuriated folks in Ferguson. The latter led to the protest slogan “hands up, don’t shoot”. Pretty soon the whole country was transfixed by what was happening in Ferguson and protests started springing up all across America. Many people noted that police officers in the United States disproportionately target black males, leading the protests to take a racial angle. Eventually the Prosecuting Attorney, Robert McCulloch, decided to convene a grand jury to decide whether or not to indict Officer Wilson in the death of Mike Brown.

The grand jury decided on the 24^th of November to not indict Officer Wilson, which led to huge protests throughout America. As people have looked deeper into how McCulloch performed his job, it has become pretty clear that he threw the case. He used a ‘witness’ who was a known liar to the Attorney to back up Wilson’s testimony. McCulloch has even admitted that he knew that she lied, but he still put forward her testimony! He also gave the grand jury a copy of a Missouri state law which stated that police officers were allowed to shoot fleeing suspects. This is particularly important in the Brown case as there is a lot of witness testimony that states that Brown was fleeing when Wilson began shooting. However laws like that had been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 1985!

As protests were ongoing we learnt of a 12 year old boy called Tamir Rice from Cleveland, Ohio who had been shot and killed by a police officer a couple of days before the news about Wilson getting away with killing Brown broke. He had been shot by cops less than two seconds after police pulled up beside him. He was on his own, he was 12, he was not a threat to anyone, and cops killed him. It makes me feel physically sick. Then to add fuel to the fire news broke that a grand jury in Staten Island, New York had decided not to indict police officers involved in the death of Eric Garner. There is video footage of Garner’s death that shows just how awfully the police officers involved behaved. You can clearly see that it is the police officers who started, then escalated, the confrontation, not Eric Garner. One officer then puts Garner in an illegal chokehold and kills him. I cannot believe that a grand jury watched that video and thought that there should not be an indictment.  

Since there is no official count of the amount of people killed by American police, it is impossible to know exactly how many people have been killed this year. For this graph I used Wikipedia, which lists individual police killings with links to articles about them. By definition there will be more deaths than listed, as there will be ones which were unreported by the media or simply never made it onto Wikipedia. You should notice an uptick in deaths following August. I would hypothesise that since that is when protests began, that the media started to report a lot more on police killings and hence we see a spike in the graph. If this is true then police killings were dreadfully under-reported. If we take the monthly average of August-December and apply it to all of 2014 then you could estimate that 986 people were killed by cops, rather than 587.

Protests have been pretty continuous since the end of November and have even gone international. I was at a vigil for Mike Brown in Manchester in the United Kingdom! Despite that clear problem of police violence, the cases have divided America. Liberals are trying to change America whilst many conservatives deny that there’s a problem. The question for the future is: can America tackle the problem of police brutality?

Ebola Ravages West Africa

One of the worst tragedies of 2014 is the ongoing Ebola epidemic currently taking place in West Africa. The disease is particularly nasty with the current strain having an estimated mortality rate of 76%. The outbreak has mostly affected the three west African nations of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, which have had over 99% of reported cases. Nigeria, Mali, Senegal, Spain and the United States have also had reported cases of the disease.

The current outbreak is believed to have begun in December 2013, although it really began spreading in about March. After that Ebola seemed unstoppable, however the news coverage was rather sparse for most of the early months of the epidemic. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), which had been leading the response to the crisis, grew increasingly critical of how the world was reacting to Ebola. Very few Western countries appeared to care that thousands of people were dying, that was until Western people started to get infected and die.

Attention really began when a 45 year old man named Thomas Duncan was admitted to hospital in Texas with Ebola. Although he was not the first Ebola patient in the US (previously doctors who had gone out to help with the pandemic had been brought back for treatment when they fell ill), he was the first to discover he was infected whilst in the United States. After that there was almost rolling coverage of Ebola for several weeks. On the 6^th of October a nurse who had been treating two Ebola patients in Spain became the first person to contract the disease outside of West Africa. In the US two nurses who had been treating Thomas Duncan fell ill with Ebola on the 11^th and the 14^th of October. Furthermore on the 23^rd of October a doctor who had just returned from West Africa where he was working with MSF became ill in New York. The doctor, Craig Spencer, was released hospital on the 11^th of November. Since then coverage of Ebola has plummeted, with the exception of a Band Aid single. This is what has led me to believe that we only cared about Ebola when Westerners were ill.

Despite what you may believe, due to the lack of media attention, Ebola is still tearing apart parts of West Africa with hundreds of new cases being reported every day. The world needs to step up its game, or thousands of people will die as a result. 

The Ebola virus
source: www.cdc.gov

Scotland Nearly Says Goodbye

2014 could have been the year that the United Kingdom was torn asunder if Scotland had voted yes in the independence referendum held in September. Fortunately Scottish voters rejected independence 55% - 45% on a record breaking turnout of 85%!

For most of the campaign the result was considered a forgone conclusion; that Scottish voters would reject independence and stay in the Union. That assumption by the press was largely based on two reasons; the deficit the yes vote had at the beginning of the campaign and the near unanimity of opinion of the establishment against independence. The large deficit existed right up until August when suddenly the yes vote surged in popularity, some polls even showed yes voters outnumbering no voters! All of a sudden the Better Together campaign (the official campaign advocating a no vote) entered panic mode. The establishment suddenly realised that there was a very real chance that Scotland might vote yes. All of a sudden the leaders of the three main parties began making big promises of new powers for Scotland if they voted no. Gordon Brown, who is still very popular in Scotland, also made a number of high profile appearances towards the end of the campaign to try and encourage Scots to vote no. Some commentators have gone so far as to even credit him with saving the Union.  

Although independence failed in the September referendum it has completely revolutionised politics there. Alex Salmond, the leader of the SNP, resigned his position and was replaced by his protégé Nicola Sturgeon. He has since announced that he will run in the 2015 General Election in the constituency of Gordon. The seat is currently held by the Lib Dems but will almost certainly flip in May. The leader of Scottish Labour, Johann Lamont, was another casualty of the referendum, resigning not long after the results were in. She explained that she was fed up with the main Labour Party treating Scottish Labour as a branch office. Lamont was replaced with Jim Murphy, which was a huge error on Labour’s part. The SNP is doing extraordinarily well in the polls, and it looks like the party could win a majority of Scotland’s MPs in the upcoming General Election. The questions raised by the referendum on how much control Scotland should have of its future have yet to be answered. How the various players in Scottish politics act over the next few years will be hugely important for the future of Scotland within the Union. Independence may have been defeated, but a beast has been woken.

Referendum results by council area
Darker red means larger margin for no
Green areas mean a majority voted yes
source: www.wikipedia.org

A Solution is a Long Way Off

Life in Gaza has always been hard, however this summer it was especially bad. On the 8^th of July Israel launched Operation Protective Edge, which was supposed to be an effort to uproot terrorists in the Gaza strip. The invasion lasted 50 days and resulted in the deaths of 1,523 Gazan Civilians and 557 Gazan militants according to the UN, compared to 66 Israeli soldiers and six Israeli civilians. The invasion, followed by the largest land grab in history by the Israeli government, has hardened the views of many Europeans against Israel. Since the fighting in Gaza this summer the United Kingdom, France and Spain all had symbolic votes on the recognition of Palestine, and all went heavily in favour of Palestine. Sweden went one step further and formally recognised Palestine, making it one of the first western countries to do so. To make matters worse for the Israelis a European Court took Hamas off the EU’s terrorist list. When it comes to the PR battle in Europe, Israel is losing badly.

The Israeli government has been riddled with internal tensions over the past year, which culminated with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calling for fresh legislative elections to be held early this year. At the same time he fired Yair Lapid and Tzipi Livni from their cabinet positions. Both are political moderates who support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. What Netanyahu is hoping for is to form a coalition of the more nationalistic parties in the Knesset (Israeli Parliament) following the elections in March. If you thought Israel was acting horrifically already, if Netanyahu gets what he wants, the next few years will be much worse.

In a sign of increasing radicalness a bill that would make Israel the “home state for Jewish peoples” and would effectively mean that non-Jewish Israelis would become second class citizens in their own country has been introduced to the Knesset. The bill is hugely controversial and has divided Israel, including the coalition government. Although the Cabinet has officially backed the bill, 14 voted in favour and six against, it revealed just how divided the coalition had become. The Cabinet debate was held in private, but the arguments over it could apparently be heard down the corridor. Critics of the bill include Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin who said that the bill played into the hands of “Israeli’s enemies”. If the bill passes, it will only heighten tensions between Israeli and Palestine and further harm its relationship with Europe.  

Triumph for UKIP (and disaster for the Lib Dems)

Throughout 2014 one man and one party dominated political discussions in the UK; Nigel Farage and UKIP. At the beginning of 2014 UKIP and the Liberal Democrats were both scraping double digits, although it was clear that UKIP were pulling away. The average of polls on ukpollingreport show that by December the Lib Dems averaged 7.6%, compared to 15.4% for UKIP.

UKIP achieved great success in the European elections, placing first for the first time with 24 seats to Labour’s 20 and the Conservative’s 19. They managed to win a seat in all of Britain’s regions, except Northern Ireland. In the council elections held the same day UKIP gained 163 seats, finishing with 17% of the vote, 5% lower than the 2013 council elections which were held in more UKIP friendly, rural councils. The huge amount of media coverage over the year has helped to bolster its support, which could have a huge impact on May’s General Election. UKIP also succeeded in getting its first MP’s elected. After Conservative MPs Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless defected from the Conservative Party to UKIP, they resigned to trigger by-elections: they both won election easily as the UKIP candidate.

Whilst UKIP had a great year, the Liberal Democrats had a truly awful one. In the European elections they lost half their vote share and 10 of their 11 MEPs. They did so badly that they were in 5^th place, behind the Green Party. In the council elections they lost 310 councillors and got a lower percentage of the vote than UKIP. Things looks so bad for the Lib Dems that Nick Clegg, the party leader, many lose his seat in the Sheffield Hallam constituency. Considering he won 53% in 2010, with a majority of 30%, it would be a truly astounding coup.

2014 has undoubtedly been the best year for Farage and UKIP, the question is: will this continue into 2015? At the moment it certainly seems likely, UKIP and its members have been involved in numerous gaffes, yet its popularity has been unaffected by them. Despite UKIP’s popularity, there is one group that simply refuses to support it: young people. In a poll published late December of people aged 17-22 (people who will be eligible to vote in a General Election for the first time in May 2015) showed that UKIP had next to no support amongst the demographic. According to the poll Labour came top with 41%, the Tories second with 26%, followed by the Greens on 19%, the Lib Dems on 6% and UKIP on a measly 3%. Not only that, Farage is deeply unpopular with the age group, scoring a net approval rating (the percentage of people who approve minus the percentage of people who disapprove) of -51% which is by far the worst of all the party leaders. UKIP’s unpopularity is down to young people being socially liberal and very pro-EU: 67% said they would vote to stay in the EU, compared to 19% who would vote to leave.

Whilst UKIP may succeed in the short run, the future is not favourable to UKIP after all, young people are the future. 

Nigel Farage (centre) with UKIP's two MPs, Mark Reckless (left)
and Douglas Carswell (right)

Crisis in Ukraine

By the time 2014 rolled in, Ukraine was already in the middle of mass protests. The protests, nicknamed Euromaidan, were initially in response to pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych suspending preparations for the signing of an association agreement with the EU. The harsh crackdown by the government helped to embolden the protesters, which eventually resulted in Yanukovych fleeing the country on the 22^nd of February. Many Westerners assumed that would have meant the end of unrest in Ukraine, however that could not have been further from the truth.

Pro-Russian supporters in Crimea
Source: www.bbc.co.uk/news

The ousting of pro-Russian Yanukovych outraged his supporters and the Russian minority in Ukraine. The outrage was especially concentrated in the south and east of the country, where Yanukovych had drawn much of his support in elections. Outrage was especially pronounced in Crimea, which had the largest Russian minority in Ukraine. In fact ethnic Russians actually outnumbered ethnic Ukrainians in the peninsula. By the 26^th of February pro-Russian protesters had taken control of many positions within Crimea. Many of these ‘pro-Russian protesters’ were actually Russian servicemen in disguise. Many international observers believed that this was actually orchestrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. When asked about this in April Putin seemed to confirm Western suspicions when he said that “of course Russian servicemen backed the Crimean self-defence forces.” A referendum was held on the 16^th of March on whether Crimea should join the Russian Federation. The vote (which was rigged) went overwhelmingly in favour of joining Russia, as a result Russia now considers the territory Russian, despite little international recognition.

After the remarkable success of Russia in taking Crimea, Putting turned his attention to eastern Ukraine. The eastern Oblasts (provinces) of Donetsk and Luhansk, known collectively as Donbass, have sizeable populations of ethnic Russians. However unlike Crimea, where ethnic Russians make up a majority of the population, they are only minorities in Donetsk and Luhansk. In the former they make up 38% and in the latter 39%. As a result simply taking the Oblasts would be far more difficult, and would be resisted much more by Ukraine. In early March pro-Russian militias began seizing government buildings in eastern Ukraine, many demanding independence from the country. They were remarkably similar to the protests in Crimea the previous month. Over the next six months the unrest turned into a full scale revolt with obvious, though unofficial, material support from Russia. Eventually a ceasefire was signed on the 5^th of September, which has been violated by both sides but is largely holding.

2015 will be an important year for Ukraine. Its government in Kiev is actively pursuing closer ties to Europe, whilst parts of the country are trying to separate. If Donetsk and Luhansk do break off this will be absolutely remarkable, and should worry countries with a Russian border. 

The Rise of ISIS

The Syrian Civil War has continued throughout 2014, devastating the country and spilling over into neighbouring Iraq.

The devastation and destruction of Syria by years of Civil War left the country unable to defend itself from attack by a “new” fundamentalist and Islamist terrorist group. The group is referred to by several different titles; ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), IS (Islamic State) and the Caliphate. I will be referring to it as ISIS due to the fact that currently it controls vast swathes of Iraq and Syria. Although ISIS actually formed in 1999, it was relatively unknown in the West until 2014. The group had joined Al Qaeda in 2004, but it was disavowed by Al Qaeda in February 2014 after a long power struggle between the two groups. Throughout the Syrian Civil War ISIS had been seizing parts of Syria and imposing Sharia law on the people it controlled. However in the chaos of the Syrian Civil War, its actions went largely un-noted by the Western media. That was until June when ISIS invaded neighbouring Iraq.

On the 5^th of June ISIS forces stormed over the Syria-Iraq border, intent on taking all of Iraq. By the middle of the month they had taken vast swathes of north-western Iraq with relative ease, including Iraq’s second city, Mosul.  It was rather amazing (in a horrible way) to watch as ISIS took so much territory from Iraq without much fighting. This was despite the fact that the Iraqi army hugely outnumbered the ISIS fighters. When ISIS marched on Mosul, they had less than 1,000 men whilst the Iraqi army had an impressive 60,000! The Iraqi army basically ran away so fast that they left behind expensive military equipment, including tanks and anti-aircraft weapons. I am sure ISIS was very glad of getting hold of those weapons. The reason why this happened is because of the sectarian divisions of Iraq. The northern part of Iraq follows Sunni Islam, whilst the southern part is Shia Islam. To complicate matters even more there are the Kurds in north-eastern Iraq. Although they are mostly Sunnis, their different ethnicity makes them a separate group within Iraq. Since Nouri Al-Maliki came to power in 2006 he has tried to purge Sunnis from the government and the army. As a result, when ISIS invaded northern Iraq the army defending the Sunni territory was mostly Shia. Rather than risk their lives defending Sunni territory, the Shia soldiers simply fled. The rapid advance of ISIS was somewhat halted when the group began attacking more mixed areas, as the Shia dominated army began to actually defend the territory.

Despite ISIS’s success in taking control of much of northern Iraq, they were unable to take control of Kurdistan. The military of Iraqi Kurdistan, the Peshmerga, managed to hold their territory and even take some back from ISIS. Since June Iraqi Kurdistan has been de facto independent.

On the 29^th of June ISIS declared that it was now a worldwide Caliphate and that the group’s leader, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was its first Caliph. By doing this they are claiming complete authority over all Muslims throughout the world.

Control of Iraq and Syria at the end of 2014
Red: Assad regime
Purple-red: Iraqi government
Green: Syrian rebels
Grey: ISIS
Yellows: Syrian and Iraqi Kurds
Source: wikipedia.org

The barbarity of ISIS has been revealed over the past six months. They have brutally murdered anyone who will not convert to their extremist version of Sunni Islam. At one point they declared that the Yazidis, an ethnic and religious minority in northern Iraq, were “devil worshippers” and that they would be killed. After the Kurdish Peshmerga left the mostly Yazidi city of Sinjar, many Yazidis fled with them to Kurdistan. Unfortunately the journey to Peshmerga protected Kurdistan was several days walk away and many who would not make it fled up Mount Sinjar. As ISIS forces moved to surround the mountain there were fears of a genocide of the Yazidis who were now trapped. Thankfully a combination of strategic bombing of ISIS forces, air-dropped aid packages and the help of Peshmerga forces ensured that most Yazidis managed to escape.

With the realisation that ISIS poses a real threat to both regional and international security, 28 countries have intervened in some capacity to help combat ISIS’s rise.

As things stand going into 2015, ISIS’s advance has been halted, but now the effort to push back against the organisation has to step up. As bad as Iraq has been in recent years, ISIS control would be far worse. My hope for 2015 is that ISIS gets pushed back and that countries begin to recognise Kurdistan as an independent nation.

Red: Iraq and Syria
Dark Orange: Military intervention in Iraq and Syria
Light orange: Military intervention in Iraq only
Yellow: Military intervention in Syria only
Dark Blue: Humanitarian aid
Light Blue: Military aid (no intervention)

So What Happened Last Year?

It is hard to believe that 2014 is already over, and what a year it has been! Here in Britain politics changed forever with the rise of UKIP, decline of the Lib Dems and Scotland almost voting for independence. In America same-sex marriage rights were expanded to most of the country and the mid-term elections went horrendously for Democrats. In the rest of the world Ukraine and Iraq appear to be breaking up, Israel invaded Gaza (again), Ebola ravaged parts of West Africa and there were huge protests in Hong Kong.

Over the next few posts I will look at the events that shaped 2014 in Britain, America and across the world.

1.       The Rise of ISIS

The Islamist terrorist group captured huge swathes of Iraq and Syria in 2014. They imposed harsh Sharia law and threatened genocide against the Yazidi minority.

2.       Crisis in Ukraine

Protests in Ukraine resulted in the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych. Subsequent protests resulted in Crimea joining Russia and other separatist protests in south eastern Ukraine that have turned into a full revolt.

3.       Triumph for UKIP (and disaster for the Lib Dems)

Politics in the UK experienced a huge upheaval, in part thanks to the rise of UKIP. This has huge implications for the immediate future, especially May’s General Elections, however the long term future for the Party is not secure.

4.       A Solution is a long way off (Conflict in Israel and Palestine)

Israel was more extreme than ever in 2014, between the largest land grab in Israeli history and an invasion of Gaza.

5.       Scotland Nearly Says Goodbye

Voters in Scotland went to the polls in September to decide whether or not to break up the 300 year old union.

6.       Ebola Ravages West Africa

Ebola devastated parts of West Africa, killing thousands. To make matters worse the epidemic seems impossible to stop. I believe it also revealed something sad about how we treat Africa in the West.

7. Police Brutality Divides America

The death of unarmed black teenager Michael Brown at the hands of white police officer Darren Wilson sparked protests against increasingly fatal police brutality.

8.       The Sex Abuse Scandal in Britain Engulfs All

2014 provided no rest for sex abuse scandals in the United Kingdom, with accusations that sex abuse extended into the heart of power: Westminster.

9.       Democrats Suffer Worst Mid-terms in a Generation

The Democrats were dealt a knockout blow by the Republicans in the November mid-terms, arguably performing their worst since 1980. The battle for the 2016 Presidential Election is now going to gear up, expect some extraordinary fights over the next couple of years.

10. Same-Sex Marriage Becomes 'the norm' in American states

Same-sex marriage made huge amounts of progress in 2014. By the end of the year a majority of states recognised same-sex marriage, opening the doors to happiness for same-sex couples across the country.