2014 Senate Elections - Republican Targets

The Republicans have a natural advantage in the 2014 elections as they only have to defend 12 seats whereas the Democrats have to defend 23 seats. Although it is not impossible for the Democrats to gain seats, it is highly unlikely that they will. Here are the states the Republicans may be able to flip:

Alaska – Mark Begich beat the Republican incumbent, Ted Steves, by 4,000 votes in 2008. He is quite vulnerable, especially if a moderate Republican wins the nomination, but he is polling quite well at the moment against potential challengers.

Arkansas – Mark Pryor is the only Democratic representative from the very red state and is the only hope for Democrats, a primary challenge would be electoral suicide. Pryor has established himself as the most conservative Democrat currently in the Senate. He was first elected in 2002 and was re-elected in 2008 without Republican opposition.

Colorado – Mark Udall was first elected in 2008 and is polling well against potential Republican opponents. The increasingly Democratic nature of Colorado means that it would be one of the more challenging seats to Republicans.

Iowa – Unfortunately for Democrats, Tom Harkin is retiring after five terms in the Senate. This throws the race wide open and it all depends on who each party decides to nominate. This is a real pick-up opporitunity for the Republican Party.

Louisiana – Mary Landrieu is the three term Democratic incumbent and one of the most conservative Democrats in the current Senate. The advantage of incumbency will serve her well and she is polling strongly against potential Republican opponents.

Montana – Although considered a red state, if Republicans managed to flip this seat it would be extremely surprising. Max Baucus is the third longest serving sitting senator, Baucus will almost certainly win re-election. Even if former Governor Brian Schweitzer were to primary him, Schweitzer would almost certainly keep the seat in the hands of the Democrats.

New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen is a freshman senator and could be defeated by a popular, moderate, Republican, it really depends on who gets elected in the Republican Primary.

North Carolina – The first term senator, Kay Hagan is thought to be one of the weaker candidates in this election cycle, as she is a Democrat hailing from a reddish state. If the Republicans choose a sane candidate (i.e. not one from the Tea Party) then this seat is very much winnable for them.

Oregon – Although thought of as a blue state, the seat is very much a target for Republicans. The incumbent Senator Jeff Merkley could face a tough challenge from some popular, locally known, Republicans.

South Dakota – Republicans will be eyeing this traditionally red state in 2014, especially if three term incumbent senator Tim Johnson decides to retire.

Virginia – Although traditionally a red state, freshman Senator Mark Warner is currently leading his potential Republican opponents by large margins!

West Virginia – Despite the fact that the last Republican Senator from West Virginia was elected in the 1950s, this seat is probably the most likely to be flipped in 2014. The incumbent Democratic senator, Jay Rockefeller, has decided to retire, which gives the Republicans a huge boost. Current polling shows that Shelley Moore Capito, a declared Republican candidate, leading potential opponents by large margins in both the Republican Primary and the general election. I have little doubt that this seat will go red.

So here are ten seats (Montana is excluded) that are winnable by Republicans, some would be more difficult to flip than others. They need to flip six seats to gain a majority (assuming the Democrats don’t flip any) and there’s a good chance that they will.