2014 Senate Elections - Prediction

In reality it is too early to give good predictions on how each state will fare in the 2014 elections. At this stage there are simply too many unknowns on both sides, over the coming months as more candidates declare their intention to run, we will have a better idea. Yet it won’t be until the primary results are known until any real predictions can be made. Republicans electing a Todd Akin or Christine O’Donnell in Oregon or Colorado will basically solidify those races in Democratic leaning states. At the same time a decision by Susan Collins to stay as the Republican nominee in Maine or if Shelley Moore Capito wins the Republican Primary in West Virginia, then these races will solidify in favour of the Republican Party. If I was asked to make an overarching prediction at this stage, I would say that the Republicans will make a net gain of around four seats, not enough for them to take a majority. If the Democrats manage to stay in power, as I've predicted, then I would hazard a guess that it will mean that Democrats won’t lose the Senate until 2018 at the earliest! The reason for this is that the 2016 Senate races last took place in 2010, the best year for Republicans in decades, so the Democrats have a massive advantage in winning seats that year! 

Republican Targets
Democratic Targets
My February 2014 Update