Why Obama will win

If Obama wins Florida, Obama wins the election. Currently that would seem to be true from the points I made in the previous article. Yet a lot can happen in two months, the television debates have yet to take place and any number of serious scandals could occur, or a fake Fox scandal. The danger for Obama at the moment is that in a number of the tossup states they have been consistently getting less pro-Obama. Although the Huffington Post’s graphs have always put Obama ahead of Romney in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado; the lead is diminishing. Romney could easily move ahead in any of these states, especially Iowa. Although the Huffington Post has put Obama ahead in Florida since January of this year, the lead is miniscule, currently leading Romney by an average of 0.7%, which can’t really be considered a lead at all. In North Carolina the look is even bleaker, Romney would appear to be pulling away from Obama; leading him since May. Although we have yet to see if holding the convention in Charlotte, North Carolina will help at all.

Although the trend is looking bleak for Obama, at least he can pride himself in the fact that he is leading Romney in six of the seven tossup states! Which is surely a good sign!

For Obama to win he needs to know which issues to go hardest at in each state, a large chunk of the Iowan economy is down to wind energy, Obama has increased subsidies to the industry and Romney is promising to get rid of them. Going hard on this issue could prove very beneficial in Iowa. For his running mate Romney has chosen Paul Ryan, the kill-medicare-guy (medicare is the highly popular system for getting elderly people healthcare). A significant proportion of Florida’s population are elderly, Obama should campaign on how he extended medicare’s solvency by eight years and the fact that Ryan’s plan for medicare (endorsed by Romney) is seriously unpopular, even with conservatives. In Ohio Obama should campaign heavily on him saving the auto industry, and Ohio’s economy with it. He also should campaign on protecting union’s rights in Ohio. When union rights were but to a ballot in Ohio last year, they were defended by a 30 point margin, so Obama knows it’s a popular issue.

Overall it will be a very close election, Romney has a real change of winning each of the swing states, but I believe that Obama, if he really goes hard in the tossup states will win the election by a large margin. I don’t think he’ll win by a large margin of the popular vote, but I believe he will be able to get a majority in five of the swing states which will allow him to become president of the USA for four more years.

This is what I predict the map will look like after 4th of November election Although my points
throughout the article would seem to suggest a Obama victory in Florida,
Republican governor, Richard Scott's voter purges and other measures may win the state
for Romney.