Prediction Update!

A lot has happened in the American political scene since the last time I tried to predict the outcome of the Presidential race. The Romney campaign has lurched from crisis, to scandal and then to gaffe every week without fail. For that reason I feel I need to update the map I posted here. I no longer believe that Florida will go towards Romney, I also believe that he has no hope whatsoever of Romney winning Ohio, Nevada and Virginia (the latter due to Virgil Goode). The Romney campaign has largely been on a downward trend since the start of the conventions. Obama is currently leading Romney by 4.2% according to the Huffington Post’s poll averages.

Since I last wrote this article the swing states have become increasingly in favour of Obama. Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan have all gone from lean Obama to strong Obama, Ohio has moved from being a tossup state to strong Obama! As well as that Iowa, Virginia, Colorado and Florida have all moved from tossup to lean Obama. North Carolina remains tossup and Georgia has moved from lean to strong Romney. This is an awful sign for the Romney campaign, although a lot can change between now and the election it is important to remember that early voting has already begun in a majority of states, including a majority of the swing states. This means that polling numbers right now matter.

The following map is what I think the election result will probably look like in November. As you can see the only changes are Florida and North Carolina, but to be honest I do believe that Romney has a strong chance of taking North Carolina. The debates are still to come, if either one of the candidates trounces the other, you’ll see a huge shift in this map.