If you remember anything from the 2012 Republican primaries,
it is likely that you remember just how much of a mess it was. The debates were
especially memorable, in part because there were so many of them, but mostly
because of the gaffes of the candidates and the actions of the audiences.
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| The crowded field hurt the Party significantly in 2016 source: www.slate.com |
Rick Perry completely derailed his bid when he declared “It’s three agencies of government when I
get there that are gone; commerce, education and the… um…” it took him 15 minutes to remember that the third was energy. Mitt Romney showed himself to be
completely out of touch with the ordinary American when he offered Perry a bet of $10,000. When one of the moderators asked Perry about the huge amount of
executions that he had signed off on as governor (234, by far the largest
amount of any governor in modern times) he received a resounding applause from the audience. The audience also booed a former solider because he was gay and when
Ron Paul was asked whether or not he would be prepared to let a man die because
he didn’t have health insurance, the audience enthusiastically shouted “YES”! I
could go on, but I feel you get the picture.
The primary was also a mess due to the huge amount of
candidates that led the polls for a short amount of time. Rick Perry, Newt
Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain and Rick Santorum all led the polls for
periods of time leading to absolute media frenzy. Michele Bachmann was also
considered to have a real chance after she won the Iowa Straw Poll (despite the
fact that it has no indication of real support, as votes are effectively
bought).
Will the 2016 primaries be any different to the mess that
was 2012? Well yes and no. Firstly the Republican Party has learnt from the
mistake of having far too many debates, in 2016 there will only be ten official debates. Any candidate who decides to participate in unofficial debates, will be
“sanctioned”.
However the cavalcade of comedy that was the Republican
Primary will likely repeat itself in 2016. One of the problems is that there is
no ‘obvious’ candidate for the Republican Party in the way that Hilary Clinton
is the ‘obvious’ candidate for the Democratic Primary. As a result the field is
wide open to any Republican with presidential ambitions. At the moment I would
say there are no fewer than 11
potential front runners. That number is about double the amount of front runners in 2012. This would make it an even bigger farce than 2012. The crowded field also means that Republicans will
coalesce around their candidate far later than Democrats (assuming Hilary does
win), further weakening their chances of winning the presidency.
Jeb Bush: He is the former governor of Florida and
son of former President George H.W. Bush. Despite his family name, his moderation
and support for comprehensive immigration reform make him the best hope the
Republicans have of winning in 2016. Whether they actually choose him is
another kettle of fish entirely. Very
likely to run
Ben Carson: Carson is a Tea Party hero and a very
smart guy (he is a neurosurgeon after all), and as a black man he is frequently
held up by the Tea Party as evidence that they are not racist. However he has
never held elected office before and I doubt will actually win the primary. If
he did he would lose the Presidential election to even the weakest Democrat. Very
likely to run
Chris Christie: Before his administration (he’s
governor of New Jersey) became engulfed in scandal after scandal, most people
felt that he had the best shot of winning the primary. Unfortunately for Christie
several scandals have completely jeopardised his chances. Despite this I rate
him very likely to run.
Ted Cruz: Another darling of the Tea Party, Cruz has
established himself as one of the most conservative and radical Senators since
he won election in 2012. In 2013 he was one of the primary causes of the government
shutdown that infuriated Americans. It is interesting that so many of the birthers
that considered Obama ineligible to be President because they believed, without
evidence, that he was born in Kenya, support Cruz despite being born in a
foreign country (Canada). Of course the colour of their skin totally doesn't have anything to do this inconsistency. Almost certain
to run
Mike Huckabee: Huckabee first ran for the Presidency
in 2008 before losing to John McCain. He recently left his lucrative job at Fox
News, leading many to speculate that he was preparing himself for a
Presidential bid in 2016. Probably will
run
Bobby Jindal: He is the current governor of
Louisiana and has been rumoured to have been mulling a run for the Presidency
for years. He recently attended a prayer rally held by the American Family
Association (which the Southern Poverty Law Centre defines as a hate group) in Louisiana;
Rick Perry used a similar event to help launch his (first?) failed presidential
bid. Might run
Rand Paul: He is the son of Ron Paul and has
inherited a lot of his father’s support from the libertarian wing of the
Republican Party. However he is both more moderate and electable than his
father. Interestingly if he does run he will be unable to run for re-election
to Senate, even if he loses in the primary. This means that he takes a huge
risk by running in 2016! Almost certain
to run
Rick Perry: Yes, he is seriously hoping to run
again in 2016. His chances, however, are slim to none. Might run
Marco Rubio: For the first half of 2013 Rubio
looked like he had a real shot at the presidency, easily outpacing his
opponents according to the Huffington Post’s average of polls. However since
then he has largely dropped off the radar. Might
run
Paul Ryan: Despite being a member of the
establishment, Ryan is on good terms with the Tea Party base. This kind of
support could work very well in a primary election; add to that the visibility he
was lent when Mitt Romney chose him as his running mate in 2012, he could be a
strong candidate. Despite this he is not polling strongly, which could result
in him skipping the race. Considering his relative youth (he’s 45), there will
be plenty of future potential races. Might
run
Scott Walker: The governor of Wisconsin could
prove a real player in next year’s primaries if he decides to run. However the scandals
in his administration would receive far more news coverage than they have
currently, which could trough a spanner into the works for Walker. Might run
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