What the World Holds in 2014 - A Prediction

So that’s my review of 2013 over, obviously there were numerous stories that I missed. The horsemeat scandal that gripped Europe, elections in Japan and Germany, and the birth of Prince George. The biggest news story that I missed was documenting the progress within Iran. I was planning on writing more reviews, but revision for exams has cute into the amount of time I can afford to spend blogging. Perhaps when I finish exams I’ll do a few more reviews of 2013.

The point of this post is to predict what will happen to the world in 2014. The number in red is the amount of predictions I’ve made in the paragraph.

Pro-gay rights athletes will be arrested in Sochi during the Winter Olympics. Of the 100s of athletes attending, it seems unlikely that nobody will protest. Expect tensions to rise between the West and Russia. [1]

The European elections will be a mixed bag as the likes of France jump to the rights whilst Britain and several other countries jump to the left. I predict that Nick Griffin will lose his seat and Labour will have the largest MEP delegation from Britain. In France Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP will have the most MEPs, followed by Marine Le Pen’s National Front. This will leave President François Hollande’s Socialist Party in third place.  [5]

Scotland will vote to remain in the union, although the vote will be closer than most unionists would like [1]

Scotland will also legalise same-sex marriage, as will Luxembourg and the Faroe Islands. Michigan and Virginia, by court ruling, will legalise same-sex marriage through the courts, whilst Ohio and Oregon will legalise it through ballot initiatives. The Supreme Court will reject Utah’s appeal, keeping same-sex marriage legal in that state. [8]

The November elections in the US will be mixed. Republicans will make a net gain in the Senate but will fall short of enough to take control. Little will change in the House of Representatives. Democrats will make a net gain in the governorship. [4] I’ll do a more in depth post about this later this month or in early February.

The bloodshed in Syria will continue, and by the end of 2014 nothing much will have changed unfortunately. There will be no Western military intervention in Syrian affairs. [2]

Obamacare will become more popular as its positive effects are felt. By the end of the year it will have a positive approval rating [1]

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts will continue to gain popularity within the Democratic Party. She will eat away at Hilary Clinton’s lead in 2016 polls. New York City Mayor, Bill deBlasio, will gain national attention, also resulting in him being touted for a 2016 Presidential run. [2]

If I were to guess one person who is likely to die in 2014, I would chose President George H.W. Bush. We already know that he is in poor health and turns 90 this June. People who could also die this year include the Duke of Edinburgh, after all he turns 93 this June and had a number of health scares in 2013. Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyadej has had numerous health scares over the past decade and hence is also on the list of likely deaths. He turns 87 in June (I swear I have nothing against people born in June). Aging stars Bruce Forsyth (turns 86 later this month) and Betty White (turns 92 next month) could also die in 2014 without much surprise.

Excluding deaths, I have made a total of 23 predictions for 2014. I guess we will have to wait until 2015 to see how accurate they were!

The Fight Over Obamacare

Without a doubt Americans receive the worst healthcare the Western world has to offer. To make matters worse, Americans also pay more for the shoddy treatment. For years people from all ends of the political spectrum have been demanding reform. Republicans and conservatives have advocated for market orientated reforms whilst Democrats and liberals have preferred the idea of a single-payer system. That all changed after the 2008 election.

One of Obama’s 2008 elections promises was to finally bring a universal healthcare system to America. That fight would prove too difficult and so Obama settled on the next best idea, one that would mean fewer Americans were uninsured and healthcare insurance was generally better. Despite this it is a far cry from single-payer, despite what you hear from Republicans. Over the succeeding two years massive political fights were waged over the bill, officially called “The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Bill”, nicknamed Obamacare. The final bill divided people like no other in recent years, conservatives hated it and liberals loved it.

The strange thing is, Obamacare was originally a Republican/conservative proposal! It was first dreamt up in the 1990s by the conservative Heritage Foundation and implemented in Massachusetts by Republican Mitt Romney! Yet as soon as Obama tried to pass it, the Heritage Foundation immediately denounced it and Romney twisted himself into a pretzel formation trying to defend Romneycare whilst attacking Obamacare during the 2012 election.

In response to Obamacare (and other parts of Obama’s agenda) the radically right-wing republicans formed the Tea Party. With the help of the Tea Party’ fervour, the Republicans made a net gain of six Senate seats, 63 House seats, six governorships and 680 seats in state legislatures. Fast-forward three years and attitudes have changed. The Tea Party has started a Civil War within the GOP that could plague them in the 2014 elections. Opinion surrounding Obamacare has also changed, although national polls show it is still unpopular.

So why is Obamacare so important in 203? Well firstly the arguments over its constitutionality reached the Supreme Court. As well as that some of its provisions did not take effect until late 2013 and Republicans shutdown the government for 16 days because of it.

The biggest news that Obamacare made last year was at the Supreme Court. Parts of Obamacare were being challenged as unconstitutional and many Democrats feared that the conservative-leaning court would rule against it. When the news finally came that Obamacare had been held up as constitutional, Democrats were overjoyed and Republicans were furious. Yet it wasn’t a total victory for Obamacare, the part of the law that demanded states expand their Medicaid programs was ruled unconstitutional. This meant that in states with Republican control, many people would not receive the coverage that they would have had, had the Supreme Court ruled the other way. Baring in mind that the expanded coverage is funded entirely by the federal government for the next few years, then reducing to 90% funding thereafter, there is no reason for state governments to block it.

At the moment the following states are expanding Medicaid. The party of the states governor is in brackets.

Arizona (R)	Illinois (D)	Nevada (R)	Rhode Island (D)
Arkansas (D)	Iowa (R)	New Jersey (R)	Vermont (D)
California (D)	Kentucky (D)	New Mexico (D)	Washington (D)
Colorado (D)	Maryland (D)	New York (D)	West Virginia (D)
Connecticut (D)	Massachusetts (D)	North Dakota (R)
Delaware (D)	Michigan (R)	Ohio (R)
Hawaii (D)	Minnesota (D)	Oregon (D)

The following states are currently deciding whether or not to expand Medicaid

Missouri (D)

New Hampshire (D)

Pennsylvania (R)

Utah (R)

The following states are not expanding Medicaid

Alabama (R)	Kansas (R)	North Carolina (R)	Virginia (R)
Alaska (R)	Louisiana (R)	Oklahoma (R)	Wisconsin (R)
Florida (R)	Maine (R)	South Carolina (R)	Wyoming
Georgia (R)	Mississippi (R)	South Dakota (R)
Idaho (R)	Montana (D)	Tennessee (R)
Indiana (R)	Nebraska (R)	Texas (R)

This was far from the only headlines Obamacare made last year, one of the other major flashpoints involved a government shutdown. Every so often the US Congress has to pass a ‘Continuing resolution’ which appropriates funds for certain activities carried out by the federal government. Last year Congress had to pass a CR by the 1^st of October or the federal government would ‘shutdown’ due to lack of appropriated funds.  AS the deadline approached it became increasingly clear that a shutdown was on its way. The Republican controlled House wanted to pass  a version of the CR that would defund Obamacare, the Democratic-controlled Senate refused. A deal was not reached and the federal government shutdown on the 1^st of October. AS the shutdown continued it became increasingly clear who was getting blamed: Republicans. After two weeks under the glare of public opinion, Republicans caved and a version of the CR passed with no mention of Obamacare.

This was a major victory for Democrats and a major loss for Republicans.

Yet that was not the only reason Obamacare was making the news in October 2013. On the 1^st of October the healthcare exchanges opened and were plagued with problems. As well as a poor website, the initial signup was disappointing for Democrats. Yet as the months drew on, signups increased significantly with 2.1 million people having signed up by 2014.

Obamacare will continue to make headlines in 2014 as the law finally comes into effect.

Australian Federal Elections

It was a rocky year for Australian politics with three Prime Ministers serving over the course of the year.

As the year dawned, Julia Gillard was beginning her third year as PM of Australia. Unfortunately for Gillard her popularity was rapidly declining, along with that of her Labor Party. It also didn’t help that there was massive frustration with her leadership within the party. After surviving one leadership contest in March of this year she was faced with another contest just three months later. In this vote she was defeated by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Incidentally Gillard became PM by defeating Rudd in a leadership contest back in 2010.

The main opposition to the Labor Party is the Coalition. Currently there are four parties in the coalition; the Liberal, Liberal National, National, and Country Liberal parties. By far the largest of the four parties is the Liberal Party, which is led by Tony Abbott. What may confuse a lot of non-Australians is that the coalition is not centre-left! You would be forgiven for thinking it would be as three of the parties have the word liberal in their name. So why are liberal parties in Australia not actually liberal? Well that’s because they aren’t talking about modern liberalism, but rather classical liberalism. Classical liberalism dates back to the 19^th Century and refers to people who believe in government non-interference in markets.

So heading into the September elections you have the left wing Labor Party and the right wing Coalition squaring off. You also have several smaller parties such as the Greens.

The results of the election turned out to be a defeat for the Labor Party, but not exactly devastating. It wasn’t like Britain 1997 or America 2008 when the ruling party got trounced. The swing was only a measly 3.69% and already polls are showing that Labor has more support than the Coalition. That would suggest to me that Australians are fed up with establishment politicians. Australia wants a fresh faced populist, regardless of which side of the political spectrum they are from.

Although Tony Abbott will form a new government and has a majority of 14 in the House of Representatives, he will need the help of at least six opposition Senators to get legislation through the Senate.

Results:

House of Representatives (150 up for election, 76 for a majority)
Party	Seats	Change from 2010	Percentage won	Swing
Liberal Party	58	+14	32%	+1.56%
Liberal National	22	+1	8.92%	-0.2%
National Party	9	+2	4.29%	+0.56%
Country Liberal	1	0	0.32%	+0.01%
Labor Party	55	-17	33.38%	-4.61%
Greens	1		8.65%	-3.11%
Others

Senate (40 of 76 up for election, 39 for a majority)
Party	Seats	Change from 2010	Percentage won	swing
Coalition	33	-1	37.7%	-0.59%
Labor	25	-6	30.11%	-5.02%
Greens	10	+1	8.65%	-4.46%
Others	8	+6

The new Prime Minister of Australia
source: heraldsun.com.au

Crazy Italian Politics!

Italian politics has been racked with scandal forever. It is one of the most corrupt Western governments which is never too far from a scandal. To make matters worse Silvio Berlusconi has been at the forefront of Italian politics for over two decades. Berlusconi has never been far from a scandal, especially when it comes to sex. Despite being over 70, Berlusconi has been accused of many sex crimes throughout his career including having sex with underage prostitutes at his infamous ‘bunga bunga’ parties. The idea that a politician accused of statutory rape being able to maintain a political career is unfathomable to most of us. Yet in Italy he weathered every scandal, every time you thought he was down and out he just came right back. It is quite impressive if you think about it, but it reflects badly on Italy.

Finally in August of this year he was convicted of tax fraud and sentenced to four years in prison. He won’t serve any of the sentence as he is over 70, but he was thrown out of the Senate later that month. Despite this he still is the leader of Forza Italia! It just shows you how crazy Italian politics can be.

In the midst of all this there was also an election to deal with. Held in February as a result of Prime Minister Mario Monti’s resignation, it resulted in a hung parliament. Here are a table of results:

Chamber of Deputies (316 required for a majority)
Leader	Party/Coalition	% of the vote	Number of seats
Pier Luigi Bersani	Common good Coalition	29.54	340
Silvio Berlusconi	Centre Right Coalition	29.18	124
Beppe Grillo	Five Star Movement	25.55	108
Mario Monti	With Monti For Italy (Coalition)	10.56%	45
N/A	Others	5.17%	13

Senate of the Republic (160 required for a majority)
Leader	Party/Coalition	% of the vote	Number of seats
Pier Luigi Bersani	Common good Coalition	31.63%	113
Silvio Berlusconi	Centre Right Coalition	30.71%	116
Beppe Grillo	Five Star Movement	23.79%	54
Mario Monti	With Monti For Italy (Coalition)	9.13%	18
N/A	Others	4.74%	14

This election is amazing for two reasons: the continued success of Berlusconi, who led the right-wing coalition ‘The People of Freedom’ and the success of Beppe Grillo and his ‘Five Star Movement’. Many in the establishment were shocked, and scared, by Grillo’s success due to bad policies such as degrowth. Yet the Five Star Movement has resonated with many Italians who agree with its views on politicians. Corruption in Italy is rampant and FSM is determined to stamp it out. They want to limit politicians’ pay and perks at a level a lot lower than it is now. They also demand term limits for politicians and an end to politicians having two jobs at the same time. This kind of rhetoric is a breath of fresh air for many Italians.

The Destructive Force of Mother Nature

The horrors of Mother Nature were very clear this year as many places were blasted by the weather.

The US was hit with a number of destructive storms. Oklahoma was hit on the 31^st of May by a massive tornado. Named the Moore Tornado after the small city it had obliterated. The storm unfortunately claimed 24 lives. What made the Moore Tornado so horrifying was its sheer size, at a width of 4.2km (2.6 miles) it is the widest tornado ever recorded.

Source: Guardian

Unfortunately for America the Moore, Oklahoma tornado wasn’t the only natural disaster to hit the country. California was hit by particularly bad wildfires this year, several people died as a result. Yet it was Australia that received the most damage thanks to wildfires. Unseasonably high temperatures resulted in much of Australia being consumed by fire in October. Although fires raged only 70km west of Sydney, the highly populated city was spared any damage. The Australian wildfires did produce this photo of a family sheltering under a jetty. The image went viral as soon as it was released to the press.

India was hit unfortunately, by the largest Cyclone in over a decade. Cyclone Pailan struck India in October 2013 and affected the lives of over 13 million people. Considering how populated the area is, it is lucky that ‘only’ 45 people died.

The biggest loser in 2013 was the Philippines. On the 15^th of October (what is it with October?) an earthquake struck the middle of the Philippines and resulted in 222 people being reported dead. To make matters worse, the most destructive Typhoon in the history of the Philippines made landfall. It had one-minute sustained winds at 315km/h (196mph), which would make it the strongest typhoon ever recorded. With that in mind it is easy to see how it could claim the lives of 6,155 and cost $1.5 billion in damage.

The destructive force of Typhoon Haiyan
source: BBC

Now let’s talk about global warming. The planet is getting warmer and storms are becoming more destructive. Humans are the primary cause of it. This is not my opinion. I am not a global warming scientist and I am by no means an expert. So I defer to the scientific community to evaluate the situation. 99.9% of scientists who have studied the facts have come to the conclusion that there is man-made climate change.

Yet despite the scientific community’s so certain that global warming is real, the world has been slow to react. In the short run making your country greener is very expensive. Countries that are in the process of industrialising think that it is hypocritical of already industrialised countries to ask them to stop polluting. Especially after the industrialised countries have been doing it for up to 250 years!

We need to tackle global warming now. 2013 did not go well, let’s make 2014 the greenest year ever! 

Gay Rights - The Bad News

Unfortunately the news surrounding gay rights has not been entirely rosy. The West did appear to move forward together, the same cannot be said of other countries. The biggest anti-gay news came out of Russia and India which seriously disappointed gay rights activists. Africa and the Middle East continued their terrible reputation with gay rights.

Gay Rights – Russia

When the Soviet Union finally collapsed in 1991 the new Russia seemed eager to show its progressive side on social issues. In 1993 gay sex was legalised, four years later transgender people could legally change their gender and in 1999 homosexuality was declassified as a mental illness. Then came Vladimir Putin, he rose to Prime Minister in 1999 and after only a few months became President following Boris Yeltsin’s resignation. Originally he did nothing to gay rights, but as the years progressed he began to ally himself with the homophobic Russian Orthodox Church. To help cement the support of the religious right, he (and his United Russia party) began hacking away at gay rights. Although homosexuality is still legal in Russia, a law was passed last year that made ‘homosexual propaganda’ illegal.

The law itself is truly terrible and stops any sort of gay pride event or meeting in which homosexuality is discussed positively. In Russia if you break the law as an ordinary citizen you are fined 5,000 Russian roubles (£93/$153/€110). For public officials the fine is 50,000 roubles (£932/$1,525/€1,102), the maximum fine for organisations is 1 million roubles (£18,631/$30,500/€22,037) and they must halt activity for up to 90 days. If you try and ‘promote homosexuality’ over the internet you can get fined 100,000 roubles (£1,863/$3,050/€2,204)! If you are a foreigner you can expect to get detained for 15 days before being deported, after paying your 100,000 rouble fine of course.

The disgraceful treatment of gays has resulted in people calling for a boycott of the Winter Olympics, which are to be held in Sochi, Russia later this year. Particularly vocal have been George Takei, an American actor, and Stephen Fry, a veteran British broadcaster. Both are openly gay and have drawn on their substantial fan base to call for a boycott of the games. In Fry’s letter to Prime Minister David Cameron he compared Putin’s treatment of gays to Hitler’s treatment of Jews in 1936, when the Olympic Games were held in Berlin. It is worth noting that Fry is of Jewish descent and had relatives die in the Holocaust.

 

Russian gay rights supporters being beaten by police
source: the Guardian

Gay Rights Elsewhere

India was the only other country to produce major anti-gay news. In 2009 the Delhi High Court ruled that Section 377 was unconstitutional and that all prohibitions on consenting sexual activities between adults that did not involve a commercial transaction were also unconstitutional. Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code was passed in 1860 by the ruling British government. Unfortunately the Supreme Court of India decided in December that the colonial era law was actually constitutional. This meant that gay sex was once again illegal in India.

It is a bit ironic when you think about it: When this law was passed in 1860, Britain was highly homophobic whereas India was not. Fast forward 160 years and you find a homophobic India and Britain leading the pro-gay rights charge!

Uganda has been at the centre of attention for several years now in relation to gay rights. Homosexuality is already illegal in Uganda, being found guilty of it could result in up to seven years of imprisonment. Yet for some that is not enough! In 2009 MP David Bahati introduced a bill that would call for the death penalty for people who had gay sex on multiple occasions. It was dubbed the ‘kill the gays bill’ and got immediate international attention, which resulted in it failing. Then last year the Speaker of Parliament, Rebecca Kadaga, introduced a new bill that was not quite as harsh as the original bill, but still demanded the death penalty for ‘aggravated’ homosexuality. That bill passed Parliament last month and new awaits President Yoweri Museveni’s signature.

More minor bad news for gay rights came out of Croatia, Zimbabwe and Australia. In Zimbabwe a referendum was held at the same time as other elections that banned same-sex marriage constitutionally. Considering Zimbabwe was never going to legalise same-sex marriage, this has little affect. Similarly Croatia had a referendum in which marriage was defined as being between one man and one woman. The result was 66% against marriage equality. It wasn’t entirely bad news though as the government immediately announced that it would try and pass a civil union bill this year. In Australia the Australian Capital Territory (Canberra) became the first Australian jurisdiction to legalise same-sex marriage! Hurray! Not so fast, unfortunately the federal government challenged the constitutionality of the same-sex marriage law, the court unfortunately ruled in the government’s favour. This means that gay marriage will not be becoming legal any time soon in Australia.  

The Rainbow Wave

It has been an extraordinary year for gay rights, particularly when it comes to gay marriage. Unfortunately there have been set backs, most notably in Russia, which I will come to later. Earlier last year I made a prediction that the total population of countries and jurisdictions that have passed same-sex marriage before 2013 would be less than the population of those who passed it in 2013 and 2014. My prediction was true, just a bit conservative. Before 2013 363,310 people lived in places that had legal same-sex marriage, whereas last year places with an additional 37,806,000 people being added in 2013 alone!

Marriage Rights

The first gay couple to get married in France (Montpellier)
source: standard.co.uk

The expanding of marriage rights took place across four continents and seven different countries. Brazil, France, New Zealand and Uruguay legalised it nationwide, taking the total to 15 countries. The UK government also legalised same-sex marriage but it only applies to England and Wales as both Scotland and Northern Ireland have the power to define marriage devolved to them. Scotland is making good progress when it comes to same-sex marriage, a bill that would legalise it has passed the first reading in the Scottish Parliament and awaits another vote. In Northern Ireland there are no plans to extend marriage rights at the moment.

Same-sex marriage seemed unable to stay out of American news this entire year, every few weeks there was something new to celebrate, or be sad about. In total nine states started to issue same-sex marriage licences. Five legalised it through their legislatures (Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Minnesota and Rhode Island) whilst the other four legalised it as a result of court rulings (California, New Jersey, New Mexico and Utah). There are many other court cases pending across the country. In addition, six tribal jurisdictions began allowing same-sex marriage. They were the Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians, Pokagon Band of Potawatomi Indians, Santa Ysabel Tribe, the Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation, Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes, and the Leek Lake Band of Ojibwe. In 2013 Colorado started offering civil unions to same-sex couples and Oregon began recognising same-sex marriages performed out of state.  

USA Supreme Court Rulings on Same-Sex Marriage

The biggest boost for gay rights campaigners in the US came in June last year when the Supreme Court sided with them in two landmark cases. The court finally put to rest the fight over same-sex marriage in California that has been going on for a decade. Under Republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger the Democratic controlled legislature passed same-sex marriage, which he vetoed. A challenge was brought to the constitutionality of California’s same-sex marriage ban which resulted in the Supreme Court of California ruling that the ban was unconstitutional. This was rapidly overturned by Proposition 8, which defined marriage as between one man and one woman and received the backing of 52% of the public vote in the 2008 referendum. A suit was then filed in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, challenging the constitutionality of Proposition 8. Judge Vaughn Walker ruled that Proposition 8 did run contrary to the US constitution and hence would have to go. As the state of California refused to defend the law, it was the original organisers of Proposition 8 which then appealed the ruling in court.  The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals agreed to take up an appeal, when the court ruled in February 2012, it ruled in favour of the gay rights side. So the Proposition 8 proponents had no choice but to go to the US Supreme Court or abandon altogether, naturally they appealed.

The ruling later came on the 26^th of June and the results were rather surprising. The court did not rule based on whether or not Proposition 8 was constitutional, but rather whether its opponents had a right to defend it in federal court. In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court decided that Proposition 8 opponents were not able to appeal and so the original district court ruling stayed. What is more surprising is how each justice ruled. It is widely recognised that the court is split along political lines. There are four liberal justices; Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. Opposing them are conservative justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, John Roberts and Samuel Alito. Finally there is the swing justice who is viewed as a moderate, Anthony Kennedy. You would be forgiven for thinking that it was the four liberal justices plus Kennedy that enabled same-sex marriage to return to California, but you would be wrong. Instead it was Roberts, Ginsburg, Kagan, Breyer and Scalia that ruled against the Proposition 8 proponents. Kennedy, Sotomayor, Alito and Thomas dissented. Scalia is the most shocking vote as not only is he one of the most conservative justices on the court, he is one of the most conservative men in the country.

The other major case heard by the Supreme Court on gay rights in 2013 concerned the federal Defense of Marriage Act (aka DOMA). The Act was passed in 1996 by a strong bipartisan majority and signed into law by President Bill Clinton. The law basically barred federal recognition for same-sex couples. Section 3 stated that the federal government could not provide benefits to same-sex couples, even in states that had legal same-sex marriage. In 1996 this was of little consequence as no state allowed same-sex marriage, and it wouldn’t matter for another eight years until Massachusetts became the first US state to legalise same-sex marriage in 2004. In 2010 several plaintiffs filed in New York calling Section 3 unconstitutional. The case was called United States v. Windsor and dealt primarily with the case of Edith Windsor who had been taxed on the inheritance she received from her spouse, Thea Spyer. If the federal government had recognised her marriage then she would have been exempt from the tax. By the time the Supreme Court agreed to take the case, eight other states and DC had already legalised same-sex marriage and several more were planning on legalising it in the coming months. The Supreme Court decided in a 5-4 decision that Section 3 was indeed unconstitutional as it violated states’ rights and individual rights. The way the justices ruled was entirely as expected; the four conservative justices opposed gay rights and the four liberal justices (joined by Kennedy) backed gay rights.

Other positive moves on gay rights

One fundamental part of the family life is children, so naturally being allowed to adopt is important to gay people who want a family. There are two types of adoption here; joint adoption and step-child adoption. Joint adoption is when both partners adopt a child that is not the biological child of either of them. Step-child adoption is when one partner is the biological parent of one and the other partner adopts the child as their own. In 2013 France and New Zealand both began allowing joint adoption as a result of legalising same-sex marriage. In Northern Ireland and Gibraltar courts ruled that their respective jurisdictions had to allow joint adoption. Tasmania also legalised joint adoption. In 2013 step-child adoption was legalised in Austria and Germany.

Despite plenty of good news for gay rights in the West, less good news came from other areas of the world. I will be addressing that in the next post. 

A Troubled Northern Ireland

In December 2012, Belfast City Council held a vote that will always be remembered in Northern Ireland. The flag of the United Kingdom is somewhat controversial in Northern Ireland, unionists tend to love it whilst nationalists tend to hate it. Following 2011, for the first time in history the unionists in Belfast City Council lost their majority. The unionists (DUP, UUP and PUP) had 21 seats, the nationalists (Sinn Féin and SDLP) had 22 and the moderate Alliance party had six seats. This meant that no side had an overall majority and so more compromises had to be made. The issue arose over how often to fly the Union Flag flew over Belfast City Council, the unionists wanted to keep it up permanently, whilst the nationalists wanted it down permanently. So Alliance decided to broker a compromise, which resulted in the Union Flag being flown only 18 designated days.

Cue uproar.

Ever since then there has been numerous ‘flag protests’, reaching the greatest intensity in January 2013. The ongoing troubles has resulted in a rocky year for Northern Ireland. Thankfully the second city of Northern Ireland, Derry, has had a good year. This is largely thanks to the UK City of Culture 2013 taking place in the city. Over 430,000 people visited during the week of the Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann alone!

Parades have also been a contentious point in Northern Ireland, particularly the 12^th of July parades. One annual flashpoint is in the Ardoyne area in Belfast, the majority nationalist community has a Loyal Orange Lodge march through the area every 12^th of July. This unfortunately results in an annual riot in the area, usually between nationalist youths and the police.

One of the biggest problems left over from the Troubles is how to investigate the 3,300 unresolved murders. Reaching an agreement on this seems to be nigh impossible. One of the problems is that many of the politicians currently in Northern Irish politics were involved in organisations that carried out the murders. Although the politicians may not have actually killed anyone personally, investigating murders could result in some politicians revisiting a past that they would really rather remained buried.

As a result of these unresolved problems, talks between the five major parties began late last year. On the unionist side you had the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), opposing them on the nationalist side is Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). Trying to find a middle ground is the Alliance Party. The talks were chaired by American diplomat Dr Richard Haass, resulting in them being referred to as the ‘Haass talks’. The discussions were fraught and at times a deal simply seemed out of the question. Yet the determination of the parties to get past differences and the hard word of Dr Haass has meant that great progress has been made. Unfortunately a concrete agreement has not been made, but with a bit more work in 2014 hopefully a final proposal will be accepted by all five parties.

The Passing of a Hero

On the 5^th of December 2013 the world lost a truly great man. For generations the indigenous black population of South Africa had been persecuted by the minority white population. In 1948, just three years after WWII ended, a war in which South Africa fought against countries that treated certain people as second-class citizens, the new government began to institute a system of racial segregation called Apartheid. Apartheid was a system in which races were separated in every aspect of life; from education to public parks and from transport to housing. Four different categories were created; white, black, coloured and Indian (the latter two had other subcategories). BY 1970 only whites were allowed to vote and other races were deprived of their citizenship! The treatment of the majority black population resulted in the increasing ostracising of South Africa by the rest of the world, particularly following the civil rights movements of the 1960s and 1970s.

Yet it was the case of Nelson Mandela that would inspire South Africa and the world to try and end Apartheid. Mandela was born in the small village of Mvezo, Eastern Cape in 1918. As Mandela grew up he became in anti-colonial politics and later the anti-Apartheid movement. Before the 1960s Mandela was opposed to suing violence to end the horrific system of Apartheid. Mandela finally turned to more violent tactics after several serious massacres by the Apartheid government and the lack of progress that had been made trying peaceful methods. After only a year of violent activity in which civilians of any race were deliberately not targeted, Mandela was arrested in August 1962. When Mandela was put on trial he gave a three hour speech in his defence, which is regarded as one of the greatest speeches ever made. Mandela’s imprisonment sparked uproar across the globe.

The longer Mandela stayed in prison, the more support he got from around the world. By the time Mandela was released from prison in 1990 he had spent 27 years behind bars. Mandela was passionate about making sure that blacks would have equal rights. In 1985 the President of South Africa, P.W. Botha, offered Mandela a deal: Botha would release Mandela from prison if he renounced his ways. Mandela rejected the offer. As the years progressed even the white population began to be opposed to Apartheid. After F.W. de Klerk rose to become President in September 1989, everything began to change. In his first speech as leader of the nation, de Klerk demanded an end to Apartheid through negotiations and went on to free Mandela the following year. To show how ready South Africa was for an end to Apartheid, in 1992 a referendum was held as to whether to continue negotiations between the government and the African National Congress (ANC). The referendum was overwhelmingly successful for the anti-Apartheid side, in the white only election 67% of voters wished the negotiations to continue whilst 31% demanded that they stop.

Eventually a new constitution was finalised and elections were held in 1994. The elections became the first in the history of South Africa in which everyone could vote. The result was a landslide, Nelson Mandela and the ANC won 252 of the 400 seats and 62.65% of the vote. F. W. de Klerk’s National Party won only 20.39% of the vote and 82 seats. 43 seats and 10.54% of the vote went to Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s Inkatha Freedom Party. The new Parliament rapidly elected Mandela as President, the first black man to hold the position. Since then the ANC has remained in power and the National Party was dissolved in 1997.

Despite Mandela retiring in 1999 he has remained a powerful figure in South African, and world, politics. He denounced America and Britain’s invasion of Iraq as a War for oil. He was also an ardent opponent of inequality and HIV/aids.

The world will forever mourn the loss of Mandela. His courage, despite adversity, his willingness to forgive despite brutal treatment, and his love of all people will forever have humans looking up to him. Mandela will always be one of the greatest human beings to walk this earth.

Nelson Mandela
source: Forbes