Hispanic Vote Spells Trouble For Republicans

The Republicans did badly in 2012, nobody can deny that. As a result the Republican Party has spent the last several months trying to work out what went wrong and how to fix it, so that they can come back and win elections again. One of the problems they have identified is: Hispanics. Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in the country, and they are overwhelmingly Democratic. In the 2012 Presidential Election, Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote to Romney’s 27%. This could pose a serious existential threat to Republicans in a Presidential election. As I’ve already mentioned, Hispanics are the fastest growing ethnic group in the US and losing that group by 43 points is a very bad sign. Yet Republicans haven’t always had it so bad with Hispanics, as this graph shows George W. Bush did a good job capturing the demographic, especially when you compare him to McCain and Romney.

There is also the problem of where the Hispanics live, and where they are moving to. For most of Colorado’s history it has been solidly Republican in regards to the presidential election, with a Democrat only winning three times in the period 1940 – 2004. In recent years the state has become increasingly Democratic with Obama winning by 8% in 2008. This rising Hispanic vote could also prove problematic in Nevada and Florida, both key swing states. The chart below shows what states have the highest Hispanic population.

As you can see most of these states are either swing states or reliably Democratic. Yet there are two major outliers, Texas and Arizona. Both of these states are solidly Republican yet they both have large, and increasing, Hispanic communities. If the Republicans continue on their current trajectory with Hispanics, both states could start to turn purple within a decade. This would be devastating to Republican presidential hopes as the combined Electoral College vote of the two states is 49!

With the census figures for 2010 released, we have a better view into just how much the Hispanic community has increased by. In 2000 there were 35 million Hispanics residing in the US, this increased to a whopping 50 million in 2010! If we look deeper into the statistics we can pick out the states that were considered swing states in 2012. All nine states had a significant increase in their Hispanic population, in North Carolina the Hispanic population more than doubled.

State	Increase in Hispanics 2000 - 2010	Hispanic Population in 2010
Colorado	41.2%	20.7%
Florida	75.4%	22.5%
Iowa	83.7%	5.0%
Ohio	63.4%	3.1%
Nevada	81.9%	26.5%
New Hampshire	79.1%	2.8%
North Carolina	111.1%	8.4%
Virginia	91.7%	7.9%
Wisconsin	74.2%	5.9%

Naturally the Republicans are going to want to reduce their conflict with Hispanics or they will continue to lose national elections, as well as some of their strongholds. It’s also important to note that a lot of the Hispanics represented in the 2010 census figures are not yet old enough to vote, in 2012 Hispanics made up roughly 17% of the population, yet only 11% of the electorate. This is bad news for the Republicans as Hispanics are going to make up a larger proportion of the electorate, even if they stop immigration. The election time bomb is here, how the Republicans attempt to diffuse it over the next few years will affect American politics for a generation.