Who Will Control Congress?

All the talk about who will be President has meant that much of the other races have been left unmentioned, particularly internationally. There are many different elections underway across America. The entire House of Representatives is up for election as well as 33 Senate seats, 11 governorships and numerous state legislators. As well as this many states will hold a range of referendums, four states (Maine, Maryland, Minnesota and Washington) are deciding the future of gay marriage.

The House of Representatives – All 435 members to be elected

In 2010 the Republicans took control of the House in a huge way. The Democrats lost 63 seats in the election, the most for any party in a mid-term since 1938! To re-gain a majority the Democrats would require a net gain of 28 seats. Although they are expected to make gains, they’re not expected to get this many! If Obama does get re-elected then this will cause major problems for his administration. The split control of congress (Democrats controlling the Senate and the Presidency whilst the Republicans can filibuster in the Senate and have control of the House) and the unwillingness of Republicans to compromise in a bi-partisan way have meant that the 112^th Congress has been grid-locked. Unfortunately for Obama (predicted to win narrowly) the polling for the House would indicate a repeat of this nightmare Congress.

The Senate – 33 of the 100 members to be elected

At the beginning of this year pollsters had predicted that Republicans would have the better chance of controlling the Senate, causing further problems for the Democrats if Obama was re-elected. They were certainly expected to make at least some gains; neither of these predictions are likely to come true. Current polling in individual states would indicate the Democrats increasing their majority in the Senate! This is due to highly-publicised and serious gaffes by the Republican candidates, most notoriously Todd Akin of Missouri and Richard Mourdock of Indiana. I will write about the Senate in more detail later.

Governorships – 11 of 50 governors to be elected

Considering this year’s Republican nominee is a one-term governor from Massachusetts, any one of these people could have presidential aspirations! Currently Democrats have 20 governorships to the Republicans 29; it is very likely that the Republicans will make some gain over the Democrats. North Carolina currently has a Democratic governor, but that is likely to change. Montana, New Hampshire and Washington both have Democratic governors right now; current polling would indicate all three races to be complete tossups.  North Dakota and Utah are both Republican and are certain to stay that way along with Indiana. Delaware and Vermont will certainly retain their Democratic governors; likely so will Missouri and West Virginia.

Although the Presidential race is the centre of attention, for obvious reasons, we should not forget some of the smaller races. It’s no good having a Democratic president if Congress is completely red, or vice versa.  With the Republicans likely to hold the House and the Democrats likely to have the Senate, we should expect a repeat of the second-half of Obama’s term. America will be the victim here.