Old World Order - UK

Population: 63 million
Area: 243,000km2
GDP: $2.4 trillion
GDP (per capita): $36,000
United Nations Security Council Veto: Yes

The Pax Britannica is long dead and buried, but Britain is still a major power broker on the world stage. Britain had veto power on the UN Security Council and has the fourth largest military expenditure in the world. It is also a member of globally important organisations such as the EU, NATO and the Commonwealth. 

The primary problem for Britain is the economy, ours is currently stagnating and many countries' economies are expected to overtake it. It's difficult to find long term predictions of where economies will be due to the volatile nature of markets and the current global uncertainty. One way is to look at countries that are larger than the UK (in terms of population) but that are currently much poorer. The UK is currently the 22nd largest in the world and expected to still be the 22nd largest in 2050 (France and Thailand are expected to drop below whilst Uganda and Sudan are expected to overtake it). To stop it from declining Britain must have a strong economy or it will risk losing its status as a great power for the first time since the term's inception at the Congress of Vienna in 1819. 

One way the UK can help its economy is by reducing its dependency on oil in favour of renewable resources. As more countries develop, the demand for oil will increase whilst the supply will dry up as current oil fields are emptied. This will cause a price spike and severe damage to any economy too dependent on oil. The UK is brilliantly placed for harvesting wind energy offshore, often cited as one of the best in the world and the best in Europe. Of the 25 largest offshore wind farms in the world, 14 are British, in 2013 Britain produced the 6th most wind energy with 5% of the National Grid being supplied by wind power. 14 more wind farms are planned to open in the next several years. Currently the UK produces 8,445 MW of wind energy, by 2020 that is expected to rise to 28,000 MW!

One of the reasons I fear the rise of glop is the fact that they wish to loosen our ties with the rest of the world. I often hear Nigel Farage and other UKIP supporters accuse the pro-EU side of living in the past. This is a ridiculous accusation, we recognise that we need to improve our ties abroad if we are to continue to succeed. They seem to be living in the past, well I've got news for them, it's not the 1800s, the Empire is gone and we are not the world's largest economy, we cannot afford splendid isolation. Britain is uniquely well placed in terms of forming alliances. We are America's closest ally, a country that will remain a superpower for a long time. We are a European nation, the most powerful collection of countries. We are also a member of the Commonwealth, other members include rising stars with as India and South Africa. 

At the moment, Britain's future is uncertain.  Unfortunately Britain faces a future in which its power is reduced to nil, by not existing! The independence movement in Scotland recently got a boost when it was announced that the Scottish old be given the option to go alone in 2014. Currently polls show this unlikely to happen, but it is still possible. If Scotland were to achieve independence in 2014 then it would likely set off the nationalists on Northern Ireland, leading to a united Ireland.  Wales and England would then be left together, and although Welsh nationalism is significantly weaker than Scottish or Irish nationalism, the disappearance of half the countries in the UK would lead to an independent Wales. 

To sum up, the UK is threatened by three problems; the economy, isolationism (primarily euro-scepticism) and nationalism. The seeds of the United Kingdom's destruction have been sowed, but it does not beam they cannot be uprooted. If the UK can return its economy to success, nationalism will lose its zeal and isolationism will look less attractive.

The Old World Order - USA

Population: 315 million
Area: 9.8 million km2
GDP: $15.6 trillion
GDP (per capita): $50,000
UN Security Council Veto?: Yes

America is undoubtably the world's leading power and with a GDP of $15.6 trillion and higher military spending than the next 10 countries combined, it's easy to see why. Although I am predicting a decline in American influence, I certainly do not believe that it will be as extreme as other countries. America is the third largest country by population and still growing, the 2010 census showed America's population rising by 9.7% since the 2000 census. By 2050 America is predicted to have a population of around 400 million people, 100 million more than today. The US also has a wealth of resources with over 20 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the 13th largest in the world. It also has plenty of land ripe for renewable energy.

So nobody is in doubt that America will remain powerful, just not the hegemon it currently is. The main rivalries will likely be China and India.

So what is America's biggest challenge? The economy. Like almost all Western nations, America's economy is still hurting from the 2007/2008 crash and things are looking dangerous ahead. The situation in the bloated banking sector has gotten worse not better, the "too big to fail" banks are now 30% bigger than the were pre-crash. America also has the most public debt in the world, over $16 trillion of it, which is a lot. This has major consequences for America as it means, China, the largest single holder of American public debt, has undue influence over it. This could become particularly problematic when China and the US negotiate deals in the future. Another, very new, problem is American governance: it's broken. Rapport between Democrats and Republicans is at an all time low, neither side trust each other and will often refuse to negotiate with each other. This is particularly true on the Republican side, currently it is controlled by the radical Tea Party base who treat compromise as a cardinal sin. All this hyper-partisanship is really problematic when both parties control at least one of the vestiges of power (the House, Senate or presidency), as all three have veto power.

If America does not get its finances and system of governance in order, it's in for a seriously rocky road in the future. 

The Old World Order

It's been a year since I wrote about the rise of developing nations, a "New World Order" of sorts. I looked into five countries, and Africa, and how rapidly they were rising and what challenges they were facing. The countries I reviewed were:

1. China
2. India
3. Brazil
4. Mexico
5. Indonesia

This year I have decided to look into the countries that are currently at the top. The countries that will be faced with a lower influence in the world as other countries overtake them. I looked into how the "Old World Order" might manage its decline, or perhaps reverse it! Over the next few days I will be discussing the following countries as well as Europe:

1. United States of America
2. United Kingdom
3. France
4. Germany
5. Japan
6. Italy
7. Canada

Old World Order countries in red, Europe in green

Republican Senate Screw-Ups - Delaware

Without a doubt Republican action in Delaware in 2010 ranks as the most idiotic of the 2010 and 2012 campaigns. Of the races I've written about so far a lot of the really stupid stuff the candidates said came after they won the primary. Delaware is a very different situation, which is why it takes the title of dumbest Republican moves in 2010 and 2012.

Michael Castle
source: www.wikipedia.org

In the Republican primary in 2010 the voters were faced with two choices, a moderate Michael Castle and a Tea Party radical Christine O'Donnell. Considering the deep blue nature of Delaware you might think it doesn't matter who the Republicans choose as they are going to lose anyway. Well Michael Castle was not just any moderate Republican, he was extremely popular in Delaware. In fact he had won 12 statewide votes prior to 2010, never losing. In 1980 he won the lieutenant governorship and the governorship in 1984 and 1988. He then went on to win Delaware's At-Large district from 1992 - 2008. The lowest percentage he got as representative was 57% in 1992. He was so popular in the state that in 2008 when Republicans were being obliterated nationwide and when Obama won 71% of the vote in Delaware, Castle still won, also with 71% of the vote. So what sort of résumé did Christine O'Donnell have that the GOP chose her over Castle? Well in 2008 when running for the same Senate seat, O'Donnell lost to Biden by almost 30%. If it doesn't seem stupid enough already, early polls showed Castle beating Democrat Chris Coons by 20%.

If that's not bad enough, O'Donnell also said some pretty crazy stuff. She said masturbation was the same as adultery, there were weekly school shootings after prayer was removed from school (it was never in schools), insulted Castle's manhood, claimed that God audibly spoke to her and told her of his support, evolution is myth and that the government is 50% of the economy. Despite all these crazy comments and beliefs, I've saved the best two for last.

At one point O'Donnell admitted to having dabbled in witchcraft and that one of her first dates took place on a Satanic Altar. These comments led to the creepiest campaign advertisement of all time. Watch it here.

My personal favourite O'Donnell quote was on she said to Bill O'Reilly on his show whilst they were discussing monkey cloning.

" American scientific companies are cross-breeding humans and animals and coming up with mice with fully functioning human brains."

Yeah, she seriously said that!

O'Donnell eventually lost to Democrat Chris Coons by 17 points in a race they were sure to win if they had chosen Castle.

Christine O'Donnell
source: www.theaustralian.com.au

Republican Senate Screw-Ups - Indiana

The runner-up to the worst mistake of Republicans in 2010 and 2012 is that of their actions in Indiana.

Republican Richard 'Dick' Lugar had held the Indiana Senate Seat since 1976 and was highly popular in Indiana. In fact the lowest percentage he won the seat by was in 1982 when he won only 54% of the vote. The last time he won the seat was in 2006, this was a year Democrats knew they were going to do very well in as the Republicans were very unpopular. In the 2006 Democrats managed to defeat six incumbent Republicans. Despite the unpopularity of Republicans, Democrats knew that they had no hope of defeating the extremely popular Dick Lugar and didn't run anyone against him. In the 2006 election Lugar won 87% of the vote.

Six-term Senator, Dick Lugar
source: www.wikipedia.org

 The only problem for Republicans, he was a moderate. Lugar had a history of bi-partisanship, always prepared to reach across the aisle to Democrats. His votes to confirm SCOTUS nominees Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, both liberals appointed by Obama. His support for the DREAM Act and START Treaty further infuriated the Tea Party base. Not helping Lugar was his anti-gun record, epitomised by his F rating from the NRA.

These votes and his friendliness with Democrats meant that Tea Party backed Richard Mourdock decided to challenge him in the Republican primary. Mourdock was successful, garnering 61% of the primary vote. Unlike Alaska in 2010 when Joe Miller beat Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary but Murkowski went on to win the General Election as a write-in candidate, Indiana law prevented Lugar from doing the same.

Republicans probably thought that their gamble would pay off, but to their disappointment the Democrats found a strong candidate in Joe Donnelly. For most of the campaign Donnelly and Mourdock were tied, until Mourdock torpedoed his own campaign in a debate. Just weeks before the election Mourdock was asked about abortion he said the following:

"Even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen."

A lot of people took that to mean that God intended for a women to be raped. Opps. His campaign bombed after this and he went on to lose election by 6%. You can watch the video here.

Failed Senate candidate, Richard Mourdock
source: www.globalsolutions.org

Republican Senate Screw-Ups - Missouri

Missouri is placed third in my rankings of worst Republican mistakes of 2010 and 2012, behind only Indiana and Delaware. Despite Missouri placing third, it is probably the best known political gaffe in 2010 and 2012.

Before 2012 many people identified incumbent Senator, Claire McCaskill, as the most vulnerable incumbent in the 2012 cycle, representing a state that had gotten redder since she won her seat in 2006. Then Republicans made the same mistake they made all across the country and chose the weakest candidate, Todd Akin. But here's where the race differed to others, McCaskill and the Democrats helped Akin to win! They identified Akin as the weakest candidate and ran ads calling him a "true conservative", which helped him to win the Republican Primary.

Despite being the weakest candidate, things were going well for Akin, who was steaming ahead in the polls. Some polls even showed him to be up by 11 points! Then came the now infamous interview on the 12th of August when he made hideous comments concerning rape and pregnancy:

"If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down."

As well as being just plain wrong, Akin unleashed upon himself the fury of the female voters. Many Republicans recognised that he had just torpedoed his own campaign and called for him to resign. If Akin stepped down before a certain date then Republicans would be able to install someone else in time for the election. Akin refused and as the date approached they got increasingly vocal in asking him to step down but he stood firm. This was hugely problematic for Republicans as they were now stuck with a candidate who would lose an unloseable seat. Their vocal calls for him to step aside were also not helpful as it meant that everyone in Missouri knew what he had said.

Claire McCaskill went on to beat Todd Akin by 15.5%. Not since 1994 has someone lost the seat that badly. Opps.

If Akin hadn't made those ridiculous comments, he likely would
be a US Senator right now.
source: www.nymag.com

Republican Senate Screw-Ups - Nevada

In 2010 the Republicans had a brilliant opportunity to humiliate the Democrats by defeating their Senate leader, Harry Reid. This is one of the screw-ups when you can't blame Republican primary voters. At the time Reid's approval rating was below 40%, so it was hard to see how he possibly could win. Immediately following the primaries, the Republican candidate Sharron Angle was leading Reid by double digits! The failure of her campaign is entirely on her.

Angle was a Tea Party hardliner who decimated the Republican Party's chances of taking Nevada. During the campaign she said some crazy things, and as people looked deeper you found out that this wasn't a new thing. During the campaign she was notorious for avoiding the press, much to Nevadans' annoyance. Considering her experiences when talking in public, it's not surprising. She claimed that it was not her job to help Nevada. Seriously. She also claimed that the towns of Dearborn, Michigan and Frankford, Texas had been taken over by Sharia Law and said that she opposed unemployment benefits. In 2009 she mocked covering autism in health insurance and claimed that the 9/11 terrorists came from Canada! Yet in my view her most outrageous remark came at the expense of Harry Reid. The quote is:

"I hope that's not where we're going, but you know if this Congress keeps going the way it is, people are really looking toward those Second Amendment remedies and saying my goodness what can we do to turn this country around? I'll tell you the first thing we need to do is take Harry Reid out."

This sent shock waves through Nevada as people saw that comment as an attempt to get someone to assassinate Harry Reid! Angle's crazy comments proved too much for the people of Nevada and Reid won re-election, beating Angle by 6%.

Sharron Angle messed up a certain Republican win
source: www.alan.com